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Railways lurching out of control?

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eldomtom2

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But I remain convinced that the franchises we had in 2019 were “less bad” than the current situation (where, instead of checking out lottery numbers or football results each evening, we are refreshing websites to see which trains the Government-controlled franchises will attempt to run)
Again - it's not a fair comparison to compare 2019 to 2022 and say that because 2019 was better, franchising is therefore superior. You don't know what would have happened to the railways in the alternate timeline where franchising was restored after Covid.
I’ve no problem with the government being ultimately in control (I’m not demanding a fully subsidy free railway, someone needs to write the cheques to sustain a reasonable level of services - which doesn’t necessarily mean propping up every basket case route), but a “seven” year franchise duration meant that there was accountability, there were guarantees, there was a medium-to-long-term strategy.
But the accountability is to the guarantees and strategy decided by the government.
(and nobody able to stand up to the whims of the Government, since the firms contracted to run trains are effectively “silenced” by the contracts that they’ve had to sign)
How, in your view, were franchisees "able to stand up to the Government"?
 
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mike57

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Interesting to speculate at what services/ frequency we might have seen if a rail link had been included as part of the bridge - given that even at the railway ‘s pre- Covid “high” there was only one train per hour from Scunthorpe to Grimsby/ Cleethorpes… If it was Doncaster to Hull trains running that way then would that be at the expense of existing services via Selby/ Goole?
Problem is when you leave the bridge from Hull, you either have to turn 'left' towards Grimsby or 'right' towards Scunthorpe, In the Scunthorpe direction you could then carry on to Doncaster, but line speeds are low (compared to via Goole or Selby) until you get near to Doncaster and its further. Really if you are heading towards Grimby, then apart from carrying the couple of miles to Cleethorpes there are no options, so you end up with a captive Grimsby - Hull service not serving any other significant towns. Running into and out of Grimby before making for Scunthorpe would take too long. The fact that there isnt even a through bus tells me there just isnt the demand. Whilst a bridge with a rail track would have been nice I dont think it would have transformed travel in the area. Even in terms of road traffic the Humber Bridge and the A15 linking it to the M180 are not busy.
 

yorksrob

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The S&C may still be the biggest basket case (given the infrastructure costs)

I accept that it’s too high profile to close (which is why the Government’s Operator Of Last Resort has instead been cutting lots of low profile services that don’t attract tourists or serve big cities like Leeds (Doncaster to Scunthorpe/ Hull, Huddersfield to Wakefield/ Castleford, Sheffield to Doncaster, Sheffield to Brigg/ Cleethorpes etc… those cuts seem to have slipped under the radar without much scrutiny)

But even if the S&C loses more money than all of these routes combined, it’s now sacred and cannot be considered for closure

******


That’s truly damming!

Even @yorksrob isn’t making excuses for the poorly used line , it really seems beyond hope
silenced” by the contracts that they’ve had to sign)

On the first point, I would dearly love to see the other routes mentioned back and running (particularly Castleford - Huddersfield), however the S&C probably carries far more passengers than those routes (I say probably as I'm not familiar with the loadings on the Doncaster - Scunthorpe stopper).

******

I wouldn's say hopeless, just that more could be made of the humber line.

I remember when planning my journeys to Barton from West Yorkshire, NRE used to give me an itinerary via Hull, even though the bus fare across the bridge wasn't included.

A bit like the chancers who ride trains for free. It is cheaper to accept this will happen to a degree than employ a load more staff to catch them in the act.


In a state of decay.
Starting to come apart at the seams.
In danger of becoming analagous to a Brittania hotel:

I've stayed in a couple of them, and to be fair, although a little rough around the edges you get the basics with a Britannia hotel. Alas that's not guaranteed on the railway at present.
 

Llanigraham

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No the railway's core route pay for themselves, it's the thinner branch lines that don't and they could receive government subsidy in the same way Bus services and the Newquay airlink does.
Do they?
Have you included all the Network Rail staff in that assumption?
 

Runningaround

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I think the very notion that the railway is 'lurching out of control' is an emotive, sensationalist and lurid way of expressing an idea that belongs firmly in the headlines of the Daily Mail or Daily Express. Also as a way of deflecting blame from where it truly belongs.
Can you tell us where it's running an acceptable service or hasn't got worse in the last three years? I would also like to plan a trip a few months in advance without the expectation at some point after it's booked, I'll have to amend it.
It would be nice if I could book a train into London or on the WCML for a week Saturday. I cannot as yet buy an across London Ticket that can both operate a barrier on the Underground or be posted in four days with confidence.
The headline may be dramatic but its far more appropriate than ''The Railway is doing adequately''
 

The Ham

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I should think so too.

Inflation has almost doubled costs since 1997. Then there's the triple lock and the much needed introduction of the New State Pension. Plus people are living longer. On the debit side, people are having to wait for longer and longer until receiving their state pensions, which, despite the UK being the sixth richest nation on the planet, are amongst the lowest in Europe.

The above focuses on the pension side of things.

Benefits have hardly changed, and so with inflation doubling since 1997 it therefore means that we are paying out (in real terms) less. As such either the payments value to individuals have fallen or the numbers claiming have fallen or (most likely) a mixture of the two.

That's against a backdrop where the actual number aged 16-64 has I increased. Which further reduces the average cost to each person paying taxes (with other factors, such as rate of pay growth for individuals, making it hard to determine if the actual cost will have fallen for any one person - I for one am paying a lot more tax than I was is 1997 in my first job and so my actual contribution towards benefits will have gone up a lot; as my basic pay has gone up by over 500% - in part due to a fairly low starting salary).
 

Peter Sarf

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It doesn’t sit right with me to simply accept that a proportion of people will slip through the net. Why should others subsidise this through the tax they pay? Why should scarce tax revenue be used to subsidise what are effectively fraudsters, when that tax revenue could be used to better effect on something else?

If everyone made the *choice* to sit at home and live off benefits then society simply wouldn’t be able to function. So why should we acquiesce and allow some people to live in this way?
This is the same issue as fare dodging. I think it comes down to how cost effective it is to police although I would argue an extra factor is the moral message it sends to others so that should be included in the cost of benefit-fraud / fare-evasion.
The questions hat need to be answered to understand why this happens are:

How many slip through?
How much does that cost?
How much would it cost to monitor (given you'd have to monitor everyone claiming)?

Chances are it's cheaper to let those few through than do anything about it.

Same with the pensioners' winter fuel allowance, it's cheaper just to pay it to everyone than those who really need it.
Exactly. Need to keep the processes simple, we are past masters in this country (UK) of over complicating things.
As other have said it survived Beeching because of the ferry, which was then replaced by the bridge in the early 80s. By the time the closure would have been put forwards any rail closures were unacceptable and would have caused major protests, this was the period when BR were attempting to close the Settle - Carlisle.

I worked near Immingham for around a year about 15 years ago, and would commute daily from home over the Humber Bridge. One day a week, I picked a fine day, I would park the car on the north side of the Humber Bridge and cycle the rest of the way and back, using the back roads, which means I got to see close up the area through which the railway passed. Here is a view of Thornton Abbey Station in the distance taken from StreetView which gives a flavour of the area
View attachment 124588
As can be seen its empty, farms, small villages and not much else. Barton on Humber at the end of the line is a small town of 11,000. I used the train I think twice when the weather turned against me to get back to the south side of the bridge, getting on at Stallingborough and off at Barton. Large quantities of fresh air being moved about...

I have often wondered if routes such as this could be converted to a simple light rail operation. A diesel powered (maybe battery these days) tram train, top speed say 50mph, light weight, with track brakes to give good stopping capability, and run branches like this as 'one vehicle in section', line of sight operation, and minimal or no signalling. Obviously you are not going to string even a trolley wire for miles for an every 2hr service, which what I think the current service is.

On the wider topic, I dont think closing or rationalising a few 'basket case routes' is going to solve the problem that the railways currently have. The current problem is that major population centres need a reliable service linking them with sufficent capacity to cope with daya to day demand. Two operators who seem unable to deliver currently are TPE and Avanti, and this is affecting a large area of the UK. To say they are lurching out of control is a bit of an understatement, The TPE operation has been failing to deliver since May 2018, different year, different excuse, but apart from a period during the strict covid lockdown travelling across the Pennines by train has been fraught. Many of the issues were predictable, posters on here have highlighted a lot of the issues, they were foreseen and should not have happened
Thought provoking. Integrated transport policy anyone ?.
I think the very notion that the railway is 'lurching out of control' is an emotive, sensationalist and lurid way of expressing an idea that belongs firmly in the headlines of the Daily Mail or Daily Express. Also as a way of deflecting blame from where it truly belongs.
I think the railways are less in control now than they were - but how bad it really is will be open to debate. Begs the question. Where does the blame belong ?.
You could argue the problem with the Barton line arises from the short-sightedness in the 1970s of building the Humber Bridge as a road-only bridge: The work really should've been combined with extending the railway into Hull. If that had been done, then the Barton line would today in all likelihood been a fairly busy and much needed line connecting Hull and Grimsby. But as it is, the line stupidly stops a few miles short of where almost everyone is going to want to go, which very predictably means very few people use it.

The cost of fixing that today would be astronomical, so that's obviously not going to get done any time soon. Through ticketing and decent, dedicated/guaranteed bus connections might be the next best thing, although I'm not sure that would give much benefit over direct Hull-Grimsby buses?
That integrated transport policy.
Just as I thought.
And....
It’s a nonsensical suggestion. It will hugely benefit the staff but won’t cost much at all, especially in the context of 600,000 nurses wanting a pay rise.
Were going round in circles.
Bitterness. You must feel positively dreadful about GPs on £100k+ per year seeing fewer and fewer patients. And pensioners. And benefit claimants. And MPs.
I think suggesting I am bitter is a bit over the top.

What I will say is there is too much demand for the NHS. There now appears to be not enough demand for the railways. Go figure.

No one wants to go to hospital but the hospitals are over subscribed and were even before Covid. The railways have lost passengers - through no fault of their own since Covid. No one really wants to commute - its necessary so as to do work BUT no longer so necessary.

Now the worry could be that the NHS is in a mess because it is run by government. The railways are getting run more and more by government.
There probably are too many people standing around at ticket gatelines not doing much these days. That would strike me as an easy target for efficiency savings!
I saw a lot of platform staff together at Victoria with nothing to do due to engineering works. Needs to be other useful things they can do or at least "look busy" (I hate that directive).
Hmmm, I wonder if certain other things happened that affected the railway since then besides the end of franchising...

You also continue to claim that franchising is better because the companies are accountable - but they're accountable to the government, so this doesn't really change where control lies.
I think Franchising was less bad !. I never liked the way privatisation of the railways was executed. It really was divide and different routes compete with each other but there never much scope for competition within the railways. The competition was with Walking, Bikes, Cars, Coaches and Air. But even then there were benefits to (dare I mention) an integrated transport policy.
We accept it because no system is perfect and it is judged the overall quality of life is better if the imperfect system is in place than if it ceases to exist, plus there is the moral argument that a society can be judged by how it treats its most vulnerable citizens.

The "if everyone made the choice to stay at home" is a non-argument. The desire to be a productive member of society and a sense of belonging ensures this will never happen. The ones that game the system are in the minority, same as those who illegally evade tax. You should also bear in mind that removing the benefits system will likely have two unintended consequences: 1) it will cause hardship for those who have fallen on hard times and need a temporary leg-up; 2) those for whom it is a lifestyle choice and can't be bothered to work are not likely to change their ways, they will probably turn to crime which harms everyone.
I think you have put that better then me.

Furthermore there are those who are so motivated they do unpaid work - just to feel useful etc.
If people spend decades voting for low tax governments, what do you expect?

If the UK population collectively chooses to act like Americans, it can't complain when the consequences align with America.
Gulp. And how are the railways doing in America !.
The S&C may still be the biggest basket case (given the infrastructure costs)

I accept that it’s too high profile to close (which is why the Government’s Operator Of Last Resort has instead been cutting lots of low profile services that don’t attract tourists or serve big cities like Leeds (Doncaster to Scunthorpe/ Hull, Huddersfield to Wakefield/ Castleford, Sheffield to Doncaster, Sheffield to Brigg/ Cleethorpes etc… those cuts seem to have slipped under the radar without much scrutiny)

But even if the S&C loses more money than all of these routes combined, it’s now sacred and cannot be considered for closure
Yes. The S&C would have been a softer target back in the last century (1980S ?).
Agreed on all points there

Where’s does blame truly belong?



That’s… wow… even at its pre-Covid “high” of about three departing passengers a day, that’s a one-off cost equivalent to over a thousand pounds per return journey… even if you assume that it’ll last for fifty years (with no other expenditure required on the station in the next five decades) that’s over a tenner per return journey just to do this upgrade

Surely there’s got to be a cut-off n point at which you say “It’s not economical to keep this station open”?

You might rely on your car but if (after a “collision”) it’ll cost a lot more to repair it than to buy a replacement then surely you accept it’s no longer viable… yet we keep train stations open even as costs keep ramping up…
That is a good point. I suppose some keep a car going for longer due to a love of the car. I know I put effort into getting a good make & model of SECONDHAND car - so avoiding depreciation and risk from a new design. I then look after the car but try to keep repairs as cheap as possible (diy helps but NEVER main dealers). That is really the way BR used to use its resources (from new). Now we just buy new trains on the never never.
That’s truly damming!

Even @yorksrob isn’t making excuses for the poorly used line , it really seems beyond hope

(Connections are available at Barton with the half hourly 350 bus from Scunthorpe to Hull and this shows on RTT so I’m guessing through fares from Grimsby etc are possible?)

Interesting to speculate at what services/ frequency we might have seen if a rail link had been included as part of the bridge - given that even at the railway ‘s pre- Covid “high” there was only one train per hour from Scunthorpe to Grimsby/ Cleethorpes… If it was Doncaster to Hull trains running that way then would that be at the expense of existing services via Selby/ Goole?
Need to move a few towns around !.
Absolutely, passenger numbers dropped off a cliff when the first wave of covid happened, and clearly the TOC contracts weren’t written with any contingency for how to deal with government-enforced lockdown

But I remain convinced that the franchises we had in 2019 were “less bad” than the current situation (where, instead of checking out lottery numbers or football results each evening, we are refreshing websites to see which trains the Government-controlled franchises will attempt to run)

I’ve no problem with the government being ultimately in control (I’m not demanding a fully subsidy free railway, someone needs to write the cheques to sustain a reasonable level of services - which doesn’t necessarily mean propping up every basket case route), but a “seven” year franchise duration meant that there was accountability, there were guarantees, there was a medium-to-long-term strategy.

What have we got now though? Too much Government control, no vision for the future, no security (and nobody able to stand up to the whims of the Government, since the firms contracted to run trains are effectively “silenced” by the contracts that they’ve had to sign)
Too much government control with not enough benefits (money).

"Q5. Why are care home fees so expensive?

A5. This is due to the fact that they provide 24 hour personal care, and in some cases, nursing care as well. Plus there is the cost of accommodation, provision of meals, laundry and social activities. Every resident is an individual with individual needs which can include special diets, minor medical needs etc and this have to be taken into account. Many care homes arrange for visits from a hairdresser and/or a physiotherapist. They may also have a visiting GP or other healthcare professional. They may arrange trips out for the residents or concerts, bingo, card evenings etc."
Thanks for that. Your answer prompted me to a comparison - it costs just over £48,000 pa to keep someone in prison !. Source google "prison cost per inmate uk". That is nearly £1,000 per week. The costs I assume would be less than a care home as the inmates probably do not get as much attention from staff, they share a (small) room and are probably more healthy.
They are if those people belong to voting blocks that are capable of swinging elections (e.g. pensioners).
So the questions seem to me to be
Q1) How many voters do the railways carry ?.
Q2) How many voters are pensioners ?.
Q3) How many voters on other benefits are there ?.
Q4) How many voters benefit from the NHS ?.
Q5) How many voters look closely at where their taxes get spent ?.
Is that millionaires as in money to spend or milliionaires as in assets like a home that happens to have massively increased in price over the last 50 years? Suggesting people downsize to release equity if they are struggling financially is likely to provoke some emotive reactions even if there is some logic to the suggestion.
I remember many years back being told that being a millionaire did not indicate significant wealth any longer, ts no longer a big enough number. Your right wealth cannot be measured by the value of someones home - selling your house does not make you rich as you generally need to buy another one !.
Certainly agreed here. We either need to get GBR in place now, or we need to issue some 5 year traditional franchises (just with higher subsidy) and let TOC managers have some freedom, and plan for GBR in 5 years.

DaFT managing everything directly is a path to disaster.

Meanwhile we should consider going for a "fewer, longer trains" approach but with some integrative thought involved - that is, make things connect where feasible, looking at specific flows that people are known to use. And on very infrequent branches consider fewer round trips but spend time considering what those round trips are for and how they should be timed. In the North West, the mid-1990s timetable probably indicates about where we should start other than the busiest routes which justify more (e.g. Manchester-Blackpool fast at 1tph would be inadequate now).

I don't want to see any route or station closures, because they'll never come back in better times, and the UK simply can't integrate buses properly. Once we've learnt to do the latter like the Swiss do to get real benefit we can revisit. The UK needs a joined-up approach to public transport, both regional and national, but before it has is a bad time to permanently get rid of infrastructure.
I agree about the fewer longer trains. Except if that will make the frequency unattractive of course.

Losing infrastructure could well be a one way street especially if we see recovery in the near future (less than a decade ?).

I wonder if more tailoring to suit current demand is held back by timetabling inflexibility ?. It is not a simple task knocking up a new timetable for one conurbation that integrates with the rest of the UK railway network. That would be easier if capacity exceeded demand by more but to wish for that implies more overheads per passenger-mile.
Yes because they can't get staff, and why is that? Oh yes, 40000 were sacked because they wouldn't get the jab.
Now I know someone who worked in a private hospital. The vaccination rule got relaxed late on before staff had to walk. So I do not know how close to (or beyond) the brink care homes got.

Some people did not want to be vaccinated for all sorts of reasons. Some reasons valid, some not so valid (in some peoples eyes) and some totally stupid (big brother wanting to put a chip in you). I noticed people I know who came from countries where disease was more common generally go straight for any jab that is offered. There does seem to be a reluctance to get vaccinated among people who have not experienced disease. We see this in the UK with falling rates of child vaccination for illnesses that have almost disappeared.

Of course I doubt vaccination rates has affected staffing levels in the railway much.
 
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185

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I would describe out of control / beyond help as:

1230 there is no train at 1355 Manchester - Wilmslow - London
(thus no cancellation charges / penalty to FirstGroup)
1255 Avanti control enter the train as running onto the system
(now they get paid for running it)
1355 At Platform! Omgz, no passengers.
(what is the point?)

I'd expect this on the 11:07 to Dar Es Salaam, back in the early 1900s, but not in a modern 2022 taxpayer funded gravytrain railway.
 

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Pugwash

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The basic problems are inbuilt costs.

BR was an integrated unit under government control, the system we have now is not. If you want to cut costs for me the big ticket items are as follows.

1) Insurance - Bring the Railways under Government control and self Insure.
2) Network Rail Contractors cost a fortune - Bring this back in House.
3) Re-Nationalise Bombardier and have it as an in house manufacturer getting cutting out the profits of the rolling stock manufacturers and leasing companies.

Franchising is a mess with many duplicated teams developing systems, apps, different delay repay portals, smart cards etc all of this adds unnecessary cost.
 

station_road

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I would describe out of control / beyond help as:

1230 there is no train at 1355 Manchester - Wilmslow - London
(thus no cancellation charges / penalty to FirstGroup)
1255 Avanti control enter the train as running onto the system
(now they get paid for running it)
1355 At Platform! Omgz, no passengers.
(what is the point?)

I'd expect this on the 11:07 to Dar Es Salaam, back in the early 1900s, but not in a modern 2022 taxpayer funded gravytrain railway.
Much as I hate to defend Avanti, that isn't correct - the 13.55 has been in their timetable for this week and will have been available to book onto, it runs Monday and Wednesday excepted in the timetable 28/11 to 2/12. It's showing as activated an hour before because of the way it has been entered, but it would have been visible before that (as it is for tomorrow for example, as an STP path - that will also show as activated at 12.55 tomorrow, but you can still see it now on National Rail enquiries and buy tickets for it)

https://www.avantiwestcoast.co.uk/-...stmas-2022/mon-28-to-frid-2-dec-timetable.pdf
 

cygnus44

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I might be in the wrong thread here if so apologies ,but I am getting fed up with all the digs at pensioners on here. Most pensioners will have worked and paid into the system for 50 years plus so are entitled to every penny they receive in pension , and where on Earth did this one in four pensioners are millionaires rubbish come from i know lots of pensioners, none are wealthy let alone millionaires. And how has a thread about the state of the railway degenerated into this.

A pension is not a benefit it is paid for.
 

185

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29 Aug 2010
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Much as I hate to defend Avanti, that isn't correct - the 13.55 has been in their timetable for this week and will have been available to book onto, it runs Monday and Wednesday excepted in the timetable 28/11 to 2/12. It's showing as activated an hour before because of the way it has been entered, but it would have been visible before that (as it is for tomorrow for example, as an STP path - that will also show as activated at 12.55 tomorrow, but you can still see it now on National Rail enquiries and buy tickets for it)

https://www.avantiwestcoast.co.uk/-...stmas-2022/mon-28-to-frid-2-dec-timetable.pdf
Near exact repeat of yesterday at Piccadilly with it showing as Q in the system until 25 minutes before. Was totally missing from NRE until 40 mins before. Driver was stepped up from the 1410 service at very short notice whilst booking on.
 
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Peter Sarf

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I would describe out of control / beyond help as:

1230 there is no train at 1355 Manchester - Wilmslow - London
(thus no cancellation charges / penalty to FirstGroup)
1255 Avanti control enter the train as running onto the system
(now they get paid for running it)
1355 At Platform! Omgz, no passengers.
(what is the point?)

I'd expect this on the 11:07 to Dar Es Salaam, back in the early 1900s, but not in a modern 2022 taxpayer funded gravytrain railway.
If I was confronted by this scenario I would steer well clear of using the train for the foreseeable future.
The basic problems are inbuilt costs.

BR was an integrated unit under government control, the system we have now is not. If you want to cut costs for me the big ticket items are as follows.

1) Insurance - Bring the Railways under Government control and self Insure.
2) Network Rail Contractors cost a fortune - Bring this back in House.
3) Re-Nationalise Bombardier and have it as an in house manufacturer getting cutting out the profits of the rolling stock manufacturers and leasing companies.

Franchising is a mess with many duplicated teams developing systems, apps, different delay repay portals, smart cards etc all of this adds unnecessary cost.
Yes.
Cut out the middle men.
If Derby was run by the railways for the railways then they would have had more influence over the crap they have delivered.
Much as I hate to defend Avanti, that isn't correct - the 13.55 has been in their timetable for this week and will have been available to book onto, it runs Monday and Wednesday excepted in the timetable 28/11 to 2/12. It's showing as activated an hour before because of the way it has been entered, but it would have been visible before that (as it is for tomorrow for example, as an STP path - that will also show as activated at 12.55 tomorrow, but you can still see it now on National Rail enquiries and buy tickets for it)

https://www.avantiwestcoast.co.uk/-...stmas-2022/mon-28-to-frid-2-dec-timetable.pdf
So are you saying that if trying to book a ticket that morning or even earlier then it would have been possible. I assume though that if I happened to check if all was OK before heading to Manchester sometime between 12:30 and 12:55 I would believe the service was cancelled.

It was always thus. I remember (last century) getting to Manchester Piccadilly over an hour early and choosing an earlier train from Manchester to London as it had a buffet - according to the departure board. Soon after departure the announcement came that there was not buffet !. We originally had time to buy a pizza and drinks near the station before our planned departure. To this day I avoid relying on railway catering - how long will it take for people to forget the reputation the railways are now getting ?.

I might be in the wrong thread here if so apologies ,but I am getting fed up with all the digs at pensioners on here. Most pensioners will have worked and paid into the system for 50 years plus so are entitled to every penny they receive in pension , and where on Earth did this one in four pensioners are millionaires rubbish come from i know lots of pensioners, none are wealthy let alone millionaires. And how has a thread about the state of the railway degenerated into this.

A pension is not a benefit it is paid for.
Furthermore most pensioners cannot go back out and get another job to make ends meet. They made their plans earlier in life and invested in their old age - downright robbery to deprive them now. They can still vote though !.
 

station_road

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So are you saying that if trying to book a ticket that morning or even earlier then it would have been possible. I assume though that if I happened to check if all was OK before heading to Manchester sometime between 12:30 and 12:55 I would believe the service was cancelled.
Yes - look at tomorrow (which is exactly the same). It is showing in realtimetrains as an STP path (short term plan) but you can see it on online journey planners and buy tickets for it.

It wasn't due to run yesterday which is why it wasn't showing on National Rail, but did - if they had a crew available to take it to London and back why not, if the path was available in the timetable. There won't have been any shortage of takers, even for a train that wasn't planned.

Screenshot 2022-12-01 143931.gif
 

tbtc

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There’s a separate for “pensions” etc, this one is getting clogged up with off-topic stuff

Certainly agreed here. We either need to get GBR in place now, or we need to issue some 5 year traditional franchises (just with higher subsidy) and let TOC managers have some freedom, and plan for GBR in 5 years.

DaFT managing everything directly is a path to disaster

I’m sure that, I’d see had the five year franchises you suggest, the TOCs would have a financial incentive to resolve the industrial relations situation and get their act together about what level of services they plan to operate

If you are (e.g.) Stagecoach then your profits are based on the expected income you’ve budgeted for, so you have plenty of reason to focus on doing what you need to do to make this happen

If you are HM Government then there are billions of pounds of taxes/ spending to account for, so the revenue from the 10:03 train is a drop in the ocean, ours not as if most Government staff are on much of a “profit related” pay scheme, there’s no reason to break sweat about the relatively small sums of money involved

Meanwhile we should consider going for a "fewer, longer trains" approach

Sounds good in theory, but you know what some people are like about maintaining certain direct links (whether that’s through trains to an airport hundreds of miles away or a direct service between far flung cities on the Cross Country network or… dare I say it… from their hometown to the Castlefield corridor in Manchester…

I’d be fine with “fewer, longer” but I know that others get quite invested in the direct links like Newcastle to Manchester Airport or Manchester to Bristol (there’s probably a Castlefield example to throw into the mix too!), despite the fact that the wide range of destinations requires more of a “more, shorter” approach

the UK simply can't integrate buses properly. Once we've learnt to do the latter like the Swiss do to get real benefit we can revisit. The UK needs a joined-up approach to public transport, both regional and national

Nobody is going to argue against some warmly worded stuff about a “joined up approach”…

…but are we really saying that the Government can set a franchise like TSGN or GWR to last for several years but the complexities of contracting a bus service for a similar period would be being their capabilities?

Councils/ PTEs have been tendering some bus routes for decades (look at the various school services around the UK), bus companies will operate a service if you provide them with a contract - I’m sure the logistics of getting a bus to replace a lightly used branch line can’t be beyond the collective wits of the DfT

Again - it's not a fair comparison to compare 2019 to 2022 and say that because 2019 was better, franchising is therefore superior. You don't know what would have happened to the railways in the alternate timeline where franchising was restored after Covid

There seems a disconnect between the threads where people argue that “passenger numbers are over 100% of the 2019 levels, so we should restore all services and boost frequencies” and the threads where people believe that everything is too fragile to consider putting proper franchises out there again

I believe that if TOCs had contracts today (like the pre-Covid contracts, even if that means a different subsidy level or different baseline frequencies) then we’d have an incentive to resolve the long running industrial relations problems, we’d not have the widespread 21:59 cancellations, we’d have more reason to increase staffing levels…

… but instead we have the government who seem to have little reason to improve anything, and in fact seem to take a perverse pride in antagonising the Unions

But the accountability is to the guarantees and strategy decided by the government.

How, in your view, were franchisees "able to stand up to the Government"?

Franchises had to keep operating the baseline services, rather than cancelling routes like Doncaster to Scunthorpe for months at a time

But franchises also contained promises that the public sector would deliver on their share of things, hence Virgin/ Stagecoach taking legal action when the infrastructure improvements weren’t delivered to enable the TOC to provide the necessary changes

The Government were scared of that kind of response - the Government clearly feel they can act with impunity now that those pesky firms can no longer have a voice (any remaining firms have essentially signed a vow of silence as part of their terms)

Problem is when you leave the bridge from Hull, you either have to turn 'left' towards Grimsby or 'right' towards Scunthorpe, In the Scunthorpe direction you could then carry on to Doncaster, but line speeds are low (compared to via Goole or Selby) until you get near to Doncaster and its further. Really if you are heading towards Grimby, then apart from carrying the couple of miles to Cleethorpes there are no options, so you end up with a captive Grimsby - Hull service not serving any other significant towns. Running into and out of Grimby before making for Scunthorpe would take too long. The fact that there isnt even a through bus tells me there just isnt the demand. Whilst a bridge with a rail track would have been nice I dont think it would have transformed travel in the area. Even in terms of road traffic the Humber Bridge and the A15 linking it to the M180 are not busy.

I agree, I don’t think that the Hull-Grimsby market is that large or that the market south of the river would have been worth diverting the Doncaster trains that currently run via Selby/ Goole

If Beeching had *closed* a link over the river, you know it’d have been high up the priorities some people have for reopening though!

The basic problems are inbuilt costs.

BR was an integrated unit under government control, the system we have now is not. If you want to cut costs for me the big ticket items are as follows.

1) Insurance - Bring the Railways under Government control and self Insure.
2) Network Rail Contractors cost a fortune - Bring this back in House.
3) Re-Nationalise Bombardier and have it as an in house manufacturer getting cutting out the profits of the rolling stock manufacturers and leasing companies.

Franchising is a mess with many duplicated teams developing systems, apps, different delay repay portals, smart cards etc all of this adds unnecessary cost.

Sounds nice on paper but BR were a muddle of separate business units too, BR were leasing trains over fifty years ago, a lot of the things that people complained about TOCs for were just business practices that BR had first which were more “High profile” post-privatisation

Network Rail have been a public sector body in charge of infrastructure for around twenty years now - their policy re contractors could have changed at any time regardless of whether delivering train services was in public/private hands

Nationalise Bombardier? The Canadian aircraft? Or Alstom? Where do you draw the line with multinational companies (who have supply lines that transcend national boundaries)?

BR were happy buying hotels etc as part of a wide portfolio but I don’t know quite what you mean by “re-nationalise Bombardier”

And wasn’t one of the supposedly great things about BR the way that they distantly kept costs low by getting supposedly identical trains built in different factories (hence 158s having a variety of engines… but also importing 56s from Romania rather than building them all in Doncaster or Crewe)

We seemed to have a wide range of production lines in operation or in development, from Kincardine in Fife to Newport in Gwent, with Newton Aycliffe coming from nowhere to turn into one of the UK’s biggest sites.

These aren’t the traditional Doncaster/ Derby/ Crewe locations that some people probably think of as”Proper Railway Towns” though!
 

Bletchleyite

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Sounds good in theory, but you know what some people are like about maintaining certain direct links (whether that’s through trains to an airport hundreds of miles away or a direct service between far flung cities on the Cross Country network or… dare I say it… from their hometown to the Castlefield corridor in Manchester…

Tee hee, I thought the Sandgrounders would come up.

But looking at it with regard to this, you can also consider buying people off. I don't think you'd get as much uproar from Southport if you cut their service back to what they had pre 1997, namely approximately 1tph to Castlefield (I think it went on to Chester via Altrincham, but exactly where it ends up is a bit moot as long as it at least gets to Oxford Road) and a peak extra each way to Victoria, as if you kept it half-hourly and sent both to Victoria. Now I know we do differ on how important or otherwise Southport is, but this is a surprisingly good example of where you could cut frequencies without too much annoyance if you look at what the majority of people on those routes actually want. You might further buy them off if you make it a pair of 195s, because "fancy trains" sell a bit.

You could probably even either close the barely-used "halts" (New Lane, Bescar Lane and Hoscar) or just serve them with this single Victoria peak round trip (not totally useless, indeed the normal service in some places like Chathill) without anyone really caring, too.

Or if we're playing with the Conwy Valley, you could I'm sure quite easily sell a higher frequency bus service quite well, given that two buses would probably be cheaper than one train. Or lop it back to Betws to get two hourly and have an integrated bus to Bala beyond that.

So it doesn't just need to be thought of as cuts, but how the best can be made of given resources. But that seems to be outside of UK culture - even the Welsh aren't doing it with Traws, and they've got a perfect opportunity there!

But I would say - before we abandon any lines Beeching-style, we need to be sure we won't want them back when times are a bit better, hence why I'd propose doing what the French do with peak trains and off peak buses rather than fully closing them.

…but are we really saying that the Government can set a franchise like TSGN or GWR to last for several years but the complexities of contracting a bus service for a similar period would be being their capabilities?

Councils/ PTEs have been tendering some bus routes for decades (look at the various school services around the UK), bus companies will operate a service if you provide them with a contract - I’m sure the logistics of getting a bus to replace a lightly used branch line can’t be beyond the collective wits of the DfT

Sometimes I do wonder given how many issues seem to come up with even railway organised RRBs these days. There's not been an issue with the operation of the long-running set of 0200 buses off Euston on a Sunday morning, but that's about as simple as it gets.
 

HSTEd

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And wasn’t one of the supposedly great things about BR the way that they distantly kept costs low by getting supposedly identical trains built in different factories (hence 158s having a variety of engines… but also importing 56s from Romania rather than building them all in Doncaster or Crewe)
It wasn't BR's idea to import the 56s from Romania. That was just what happened after Brush realised they had no capacity to meet the contract they had signed to deliver the locomotives, and subcontracted to Electroputere out of desperation.

As to building things in different factories - given the ever increasing length of rolling stock service lives, improved reliability and the like, I'd argue that we no longer have a large enough rolling stock market to support multiple manufacturers.

If we average rolling stock purchases since privatisation, we are ordering a couple hundred carriages a year and that's about it.

16,000 vehicles in passenger service, now expecting 40 (or more) year service lives, leads us to equilibrium orders of 400 a year.

You can't have a vibrant marketplace on that basis, and attempting has resulted in a zoo of stock, none of which is suitable for deployment once its original niche case has dissapeared.
SInce none of uses the same spares, same multiple working equipment or has the same cab designs.

We order enough trains to keep one production line operational, and since the alternatives would be a monopoly in the hands of rapacious capitalists or a monopoly in the hands of the railway, the latter is clearly a better choice for the railway.

We temporarily have multiple manufacturers due to a glut of railway capacity, but those plants will not last - there simply is not the business to sustain them.
 
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43096

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Cut out the middle men.
If Derby was run by the railways for the railways then they would have had more influence over the crap they have delivered.
Ah, the rose-tinted view of BR past, where BREL never delivered late, nor turned out junk…

Going sole supplier leaves you as a hostage to fortune. At least now if Derby produce dross, there’s Siemens or Stadler as an alternative.

It’s not like Derby produces everything for the trains: it’s just an assembly site. Traction packages are from outside the U.K. for example. This was always the case historically, too, as Brush and GEC competed for the traction kit.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Interesting to speculate at what services/ frequency we might have seen if a rail link had been included as part of the bridge - given that even at the railway ‘s pre- Covid “high” there was only one train per hour from Scunthorpe to Grimsby/ Cleethorpes… If it was Doncaster to Hull trains running that way then would that be at the expense of existing services via Selby/ Goole?

It is an interesting speculation of what would've happened if there was a rail link across the Humber. Certainly, it would have massively changed the pattern of services in the area. I think you're right that there would have been a big incentive to run Doncaster-Hull via Scunthorpe since that's much bigger than Goole - so Scunthorpe would've probably gained at Goole's expense.

Another change is that that the London-Hull service could've ended up running via Lincoln (and there may have been more incentive to include that route as a franchised commitment 20-ish years ago rather than waiting until an open access operator picked it up - since it would have had more scope for serving large towns away from the ECML).
 

mike57

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If Beeching had *closed* a link over the river, you know it’d have been high up the priorities some people have for reopening though!
If historically there had been a fixed link across the river then possibly there would be more business and personal links between Grimsby and Hull now. People at both ends just do not consider travel or other involvements across the Humber. Locally the Humber Bridge was always considered a bridge to nowhere, there were some vague plans to extend the M11 northwards and integrate the Humber bridge into it but these have long since been dropped. Really beyond the coastal strip north and south of the Humber the inland areas of Parts of Lindsey in Lincolnshire and the East Riding of Yorkshire are rural with low populations. The railway in this area that probaly shouldn't have closed was the direct route to Grimsby via Louth, If I had my crayons out I'd keep that open and close Grimsby - Barton On Humber.

London-Hull service could've ended up running via Lincoln
Unless the route had decent line speeds the Doncaster route would give much better journey times to London
 

SussexSeagull

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Hate to break it to you but had UC and Pensions not gone up the money wouldn't have gone on resolving the rail dispute. The current government are trying to be a Thatcher tribute act and they think if they drag the dispute on ling enough public sympathy will evaporate (although I think they are wrong about that).
 

Bletchleyite

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Hate to break it to you but had UC and Pensions not gone up the money wouldn't have gone on resolving the rail dispute. The current government are trying to be a Thatcher tribute act and they think if they drag the dispute on ling enough public sympathy will evaporate (although I think they are wrong about that).

If people don't get home for Christmas, which it looks might happen if the Network Rail suggestion on another thread takes place, then public opinion will massively shift.

The RMT etc know that hence why they didn't call strikes for 23/24, but it looks like Network Rail may be about to bring things to a head.
 

JamesT

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If people don't get home for Christmas, which it looks might happen if the Network Rail suggestion on another thread takes place, then public opinion will massively shift.

The RMT etc know that hence why they didn't call strikes for 23/24, but it looks like Network Rail may be about to bring things to a head.
Which thread is that?
 

43066

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If people don't get home for Christmas, which it looks might happen if the Network Rail suggestion on another thread takes place, then public opinion will massively shift.

The RMT etc know that hence why they didn't call strikes for 23/24, but it looks like Network Rail may be about to bring things to a head.

Albeit the railway will still operate, just with reduced services. I think we are reaching the point where the people are seeing that the government is at fault here. There’s also still a chance of a breakthrough beforehand… Here’s hoping!
 

Sly Old Fox

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Albeit the railway will still operate, just with reduced services. I think we are reaching the point where the people are seeing that the government is at fault here. There’s also still a chance of a breakthrough beforehand… Here’s hoping!

I think people have mostly been able to see that the government is at fault all the way through. I don’t see why that changes anything.
 

43066

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I think people have mostly been able to see that the government is at fault all the way through. I don’t see why that changes anything.

If the government realise the public is blaming them, rather than the unions, they’re more likely to allow a settlement to be agreed.
 

Sly Old Fox

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If the government realise the public is blaming them, rather than the unions, they’re more likely to allow a settlement to be agreed.

I disagree. The government doesn’t care. The railway is only one small battle, they have much bigger fish to fry.

I also think they know they’re done in 2024 either way so are quite happy to just leave it for Labour to solve then.
 
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