Reform UK discussion

[YorkshireBear]

I think reform winning by such a small margin is a worse performance than many expected and is almost taking defeat from the jaws of victory personally!

 

[brad465]

4:30am and looks like Reform are winning around two-thirds of the council seats, the MP by-election (knife-edge though and there's a recount!), and half the mayoral elections.

If that continues to hold true tomorrow, expect to see Farage turn up to the Runcorn and Helsby count to claim the night as a victory for Reform.


For context..

Candidate	Prediction	Actual
Godwin LAB	23%	25%
Smith CON	21%	16.6%
Banks REF	18%	22.1%
Page GRN	18%	20%
Henman LDM	15%	14%
Scott IND	5%	2.3%

I wonder if the 'shy Tory' voters are now 'shy Reform' voters.

Holding that and two other mayoralties will be Labour's main silver lining, though as I said before, only 25% of the vote isn't a sound mandate.

Labour are getting a kicking, but traditionally by elections and council elections are the time for the protest vote against the government of the day. It'll result in a focussing of minds at Labour HQ, and brings home the fact that they are in power because they are the least worst, not because they are the best.

The Conservatives on the other hand are in deep trouble. They are the ones that should be capitalising on Labour's misfortunes. But they are nowhere to be seen.

Labour need to avoid panicking and doing all sorts of desperate stuff off the back of results that won't have any bearing on the general election. This will be worse than just saying some stock messages of defeat and carrying on as they would otherwise. But knowing them they will panic. Furthermore seeing the Tory state if Labour just sat tight for a little while, the Tories could well do some stuff that gives a decent distraction.

 

[ainsworth74]

Early days yet and whilst I'm sure much of the discussion will be "OMG LABOUR DOOMED" I reckon the real story of the results so far is that the Tories remain in absolutely terrible terrible trouble.

Runcorn and Helsby is a bad result for Labour to be sure but looking at the numbers it appears to me that their voters stayed home or voted Green/Lib Dem (because the actual threat to Labour is from the left after all, not to the right of Reform). Turn out was around 32,000 votes (down from 42,000 in 2024) and Labour got 12,600 of those votes (down from 22,000 in 2024, interestingly similar to the fall in turnout!). Meanwhile Reform went from 7,600 votes to 12,600 and the Tories went from 6,700 to 2,300 the decline in Tory votes coming very close to the increase in Reform votes.

Reform win the seat (by the skin of their teeth) but they did it because the Tory voters swung in behind them and the Labour voters stayed home. Now that's a problem for Labour to be sure (see the Democrats in the United States for an example of why). But it's an even bigger problem for the Tories in many respects, their voters are seemingly heading for Reform on mass.

Lincolnshire County Council is another interesting one. Before the election Tories held 54 seats, Labour 4, and Reform 3 (in total there are 70 seats and the rest were held by independents and Lib Dems). At the moment 36 seats have declared and Reform have 30, Labour 3, and the Tories have 1. Now I suppose it's possible that the remaining 34 seats will all go Tory and they'll end up with a more respectable 35 seats. But a) that would still be a hell of a crash down from 54 and b) that seems incredibly unlikely. So here is a very Tory Council which is likely to end up going Reform with Labour probably landing on about the same number of seats they already held. Again, this isn't Labour voters deserting Labour for Reform. It's Tory voters going to Reform.

The Tories, assuming this sort of pattern continues more generally and it is very early in the results, are in real real danger and they really don't appear to have noticed.

Labour have a lot of of work to do but their threat is from their voters staying home due to apathy or switching to Greens or other parties like the Lib Dems (or nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales). Not their voters going to Reform. I really really wish they'd wake up and realise that is the real threat they face and so trying to out Reform Reform will only make the position of the country worse and worse as well as make their own position worse!

 

[Thirteen]

I think reform winning by such a small margin is a worse performance than many expected and is almost taking defeat from the jaws of victory personally!

I agree, it puts them in a vulnerable position when there is a GE and more people turnout to vote.

 

[DarloRich]

I agree with @ainsworth74 above but we both have to acknowledge that the Reform message IS attracting Labour voters. The general election showed that with Reform coming second in many NE constituencies won by Labour. I suspect that will be reinforced with council wins for Reform in what were previously solid labour areas. I would keep an eye on Durham council in that regard

I would also keep an eye on what Reform do when in charge of a council. Wittering about stopping the boats and attacking forgins wont get the bins emptied and the pot holes filled in. I would also see how often "inappropriate" or "unsavoury" or " misguided" texts, tweets and statements result in councillors being kicked out Reform..............

 

[ainsworth74]

I agree with @ainsworth74 above but we both have to acknowledge that the Reform message IS attracting Labour voters. The general election showed that with Reform coming second in many NE constituencies won by Labour. I suspect that will be reinforced with council wins for Reform in what were previously solid labour areas. I would keep an eye on Durham council in that regard

Oh absolutely, all is not well with Labour. I just reckon that the reaction is going to be "DOOOOOM FOR LABOUR" when it should be "DOOOOOM FOR TORIES but Labour in trouble too". I also continue to worry that the message Labour will take away from this is going to be that they've got to go further right chasing Reform voters when I reckon they'd be far better steering towards the centre and centre-left whilst showing that a) they give a damn and b) can actually improve peoples material conditions (or heck even just the vibes at this point).

A big chunk of the Reform vote is people who look at both main parties and go "Nah, tried that, didn't work, might as well try these as how can they be any worse and what have I got left to lose?". If Labour can offer a different vision and can back it up with material improvements to peoples live (and better vibes) they'll win votes back without ever needing to try and out Reform Reform. Which is a battle they won't win (because if you're voting Reform because you like say their rhetoric on immigration, you won't believe Labour when they say they'll get tough on immigration) but will cost them support from their other voter groups who they might actually otherwise have had a chance of winning.

 

[Harpo]

Causing others to react and copy whatever populist piffle he is gaining traction with, is how Farage operates.

Farage goaded Cameron and the Tories into the Brexit referendum and caused the Tories to lurch into an extreme right wing self-destruct doom loop of ‘stopping boats’ etc..

If the Labour party wants to survive, it needs to develop an effective vote-winning opposition to Reform, not react or copy it.

 

[SuspectUsual]

A big chunk of the Reform vote is people who look at both main parties and go "Nah, tried that, didn't work, might as well try these as how can they be any worse and what have I got left to lose?"

I think there is an equally big chunk who come to that conclusion via Farage and others on social media rather than any critical thinking on their parts

 

[Bletchleyite]

If the Labour party wants to survive, it needs to develop an effective vote-winning opposition to Reform, not react or copy it.

I think that probably means appealing to the younger voter. Which means accepting the loss of the Boomer vote with things like increased taxation and rejoining the EU, in order to get the money to fix public services.

To me the majority of the Boomer vote is now lost to Reform, probably irrevocably. So let it go and create positive progressive politics for people who will vote for that.

Labour-Lib Dem-Green left wing coalition, anyone?

 

[takno]

Oh absolutely, all is not well with Labour. I just reckon that the reaction is going to be "DOOOOOM FOR LABOUR" when it should be "DOOOOOM FOR TORIES but Labour in trouble too". I also continue to worry that the message Labour will take away from this is going to be that they've got to go further right chasing Reform voters when I reckon they'd be far better steering towards the centre and centre-left whilst showing that a) they give a damn and b) can actually improve peoples material conditions (or heck even just the vibes at this point).

A big chunk of the Reform vote is people who look at both main parties and go "Nah, tried that, didn't work, might as well try these as how can they be any worse and what have I got left to lose?". If Labour can offer a different vision and can back it up with material improvements to peoples live (and better vibes) they'll win votes back without ever needing to try and out Reform Reform. Which is a battle they won't win (because if you're voting Reform because you like say their rhetoric on immigration, you won't believe Labour when they say they'll get tough on immigration) but will cost them support from their other voter groups who they might actually otherwise have had a chance of winning.

I think the interesting problem is the Green vote for Labour at the moment. As you say what essentially appears to be happening with Reform is that the right-wing vote is coalescing around them and they will replace the Conservatives as the main right wing party at the next election. Labour should be worrying that they are stretching themselves too thin, and people are losing faith in tactical voting and just going Green (or Lib Dem), which is kind of where the Tories were with Reform for a lot of the last 10 years.

Of course a lot of the problem is figuring out why people vote Green, whether its their support for socially progressive policies, their presumed affinity with environmental policies, or because the constant drum-beat lie about how much a wealth tax could raise. All of those of course are best addressed by being willing to stand up and express the sort of opinion that Starmer actually holds, rather than letting Liz Kendall and Rachel Reeves constantly present things from the nasty wing of the party.

In terms of the votes Labour can gain from Reform (which is very much the minority of them), I think they're voting reform because they don't feel listened to. Half them just like many other people want to hear that Labour likes the idea of wealth taxes, even if the caveat is that they currently don't think they can risk it at the minute because everybody will leg it abroad with the money and investment in jobs will collapse. They want to hear that the only reason half the cabinet is interested in net zero is because there's jobs in net zero - defending net zero as a solemn expensive duty is just ceding ground in every direction.

Basically Labour have a bunch of pretty reasonable policies which might slowly help a country in a mess, but they constantly present them with caveats and apologies. Reform have got no policies, and are mostly a bunch of lunatic right wing clowns who would be happy to be the kings of a giant swamp full of... stuff, but they don't apologise or excuse themselves and constantly confident statements. Right or wrong, that's what people think a party with a plan looks like.

 

[Cloud Strife]

The Tories, assuming this sort of pattern continues more generally and it is very early in the results, are in real real danger and they really don't appear to have noticed.

They really are in deep trouble. No-one takes Kemi Badenoch seriously, she's lost against Farage and she doesn't have the respect from the rank and file needed. Labour will always be fine as the major centre-left party with no party really capable of threatening them there (at least in England, Scotland/Wales are different), but it's very hard to see how the Tories and Reform can coexist in one space.

The Tories need to take a step back and consider that their credibility is almost zero right now. I think they also don't seem to have understood in their Middle England bubble that there's a lot of racism among the Tory electorate, and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of them simply won't vote for a black woman regardless of what she says. From a purely electoral calculation point of view, we've seen in the last US election that black women suffer quite badly when it comes to getting elected to high office, even among minorities, and Kemi's non-British childhood won't help her against a Reform canvasser who isn't afraid to 'go there'.

It would be interesting to know what the non-White British vote is going to be like. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a significant vote for Reform there, because a lot of commentators also ignore the racial tension between Black and Asian Brits.

 

[takno]

They really are in deep trouble. No-one takes Kemi Badenoch seriously, she's lost against Farage and she doesn't have the respect from the rank and file needed. Labour will always be fine as the major centre-left party with no party really capable of threatening them there (at least in England, Scotland/Wales are different), but it's very hard to see how the Tories and Reform can coexist in one space.

The Tories need to take a step back and consider that their credibility is almost zero right now. I think they also don't seem to have understood in their Middle England bubble that there's a lot of racism among the Tory electorate, and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of them simply won't vote for a black woman regardless of what she says. From a purely electoral calculation point of view, we've seen in the last US election that black women suffer quite badly when it comes to getting elected to high office, even among minorities, and Kemi's non-British childhood won't help her against a Reform canvasser who isn't afraid to 'go there'.

It would be interesting to know what the non-White British vote is going to be like. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a significant vote for Reform there, because a lot of commentators also ignore the racial tension between Black and Asian Brits.

I don't think anybody seriously thinks Badenoch will see out the year, possibly including Badenoch although I haven't ever seen any indication that she thinks seriously at all. The problem they have is that there isn't really anybody better waiting in the wings. Jenrick is in many ways even more pathetic, and the rest of the shadow cabinet couldn't outlive a soft fruit let alone a lettuce. Given that both are policy-free parties run by barking-mad imbeciles on a platform of being the biggest immgrunt-haters, there is literally nothing to choose between them and Reform.

If you were a Labour or Green voter in a Tory constituency which was threatened by Reform, would you bother lending your vote to the Tories to keep Reform out at this point?

 

[TheSmiths82]

I really really wish they'd wake up and realise that is the real threat they face and so trying to out Reform Reform will only make the position of the country worse and worse as well as make their own position worse!

This is the big issue and I really fear this labour government really don't understand how politics works. If they did they wouldn't have scrapped the pensioners fuel allowance as they would have realised how the media would twist it so badly.

Labour need to win people like me back, there is a bi election near me I don't think I would vote labour, although if the threat was reform I might have voted reluctantly just to keep them out. Thankfully there is a much bigger chance of the Lib Dems or the Green party winning here than reform. I think they came last at the last election with only a few hundred votes.

 

[brad465]

They really are in deep trouble. No-one takes Kemi Badenoch seriously, she's lost against Farage and she doesn't have the respect from the rank and file needed. Labour will always be fine as the major centre-left party with no party really capable of threatening them there (at least in England, Scotland/Wales are different), but it's very hard to see how the Tories and Reform can coexist in one space.

The Tories need to take a step back and consider that their credibility is almost zero right now. I think they also don't seem to have understood in their Middle England bubble that there's a lot of racism among the Tory electorate, and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of them simply won't vote for a black woman regardless of what she says. From a purely electoral calculation point of view, we've seen in the last US election that black women suffer quite badly when it comes to getting elected to high office, even among minorities, and Kemi's non-British childhood won't help her against a Reform canvasser who isn't afraid to 'go there'.

It would be interesting to know what the non-White British vote is going to be like. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a significant vote for Reform there, because a lot of commentators also ignore the racial tension between Black and Asian Brits.

Another problem the Tories have is they have relatively few MPs to choose from for leadership and shadow ministerial roles, combined with many of them being part of the tainted government just gone. There's a reason it took 13 years to get back to power: the first parliament was full of previous failures, the second parliament saw some new faces come in, including David Cameron, then the third parliament they elected a previously untainted MP to leader who could then present a new image that worked for the election after.

This time though it will be considerably harder because Reform UK exists and as they are in a stronger position than the Tories are, any future rising stars will think that's the best place to go rather than the Tories. See Andrea Jenkyns.

 

[Thirteen]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see Holly Valance try and become a MP in the next GE. She is the wife of Nick Candy who's one of the backers of Reform and she did consider standing at the last Election but decided against it. I know it's odd to say but having a youngish, female Reform MP who isn't a middle aged, white man would help their image somewhat.

 

[WelshBluebird]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see Holly Valance try and become a MP in the next GE. She is the wife of Nick Candy who's one of the backers of Reform and she did consider standing at the last Election but decided against it. I know it's odd to say but having a youngish, female Reform MP who isn't a middle aged, white man would help their image somewhat.

I hasn't quite realised she had turned into a climate change denying homophobe but there you go. I guess marrying a billionaire can do weird things to you!

 

[Howardh]

What seems to be quietly missed is the LD's march to be the real opposition. If Labour are shedding a few votes to The new Tories (reform) then they must be shedding a lot more to the LD's. If the Tories are losing huge numbers to Reform, maybe they should cut their losses and move back to the centre and be the party of Return?

And Labour need to revisit their current policies r/e the EU, tax threshold, PIP's and WFA cuts.

If the Tories did move back to the centre-right, maybe that could pressure Labour into accepting a return, especially as they may well need LD's support in future? No point now in being a right-wing EU-hater when reform are doing it for you?

 

[adc82140]

It's been a good 24 hours for the Lib Dems. It's interesting that seats lost by Labour roughly equal seats gained by the Lib Dems and Greens. So this really is a drubbing of the Tories by Reform, and not of Labour.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What seems to be quietly missed is the LD's march to be the real opposition. If Labour are shedding a few votes to The new Tories (reform) then they must be shedding a lot more to the LD's. If the Tories are losing huge numbers to Reform, maybe they should cut their losses and move back to the centre and be the party of Return?

We definitely do seem to be missing a (viable) party advocating the rejoining of the EU, despite views on this shifting massively now we've seen the disadvantages of Brexit.

 

[ainsworth74]

It's been a good 24 hours for the Lib Dems. It's interesting that seats lost by Labour roughly equal seats gained by the Lib Dems and Greens. So this really is a drubbing of the Tories by Reform, and not of Labour.

Quite, that to me is the real story here. The Reform monstering of the Tory vote meaning that they've got serious electoral issues. I mean they just lost Kent, Kent! They've lost 54 seats so far with 8 left to declare in a Council which has been Tory I think for yonks.

Labour's issues are from the Lib Dems and Greens, not Reform but I fear they're going to continue trying to out Reform Reform and therefore continue to enable them.

 

[PGAT]

Labour are currently joint last with Greens in terms of number of councillors

 

[Class 466]

Quite, that to me is the real story here. The Reform monstering of the Tory vote meaning that they've got serious electoral issues. I mean they just lost Kent, Kent! They've lost 54 seats so far with 8 left to declare in a Council which has been Tory I think for yonks.

Labour's issues are from the Lib Dems and Greens, not Reform but I fear they're going to continue trying to out Reform Reform and therefore continue to enable them.

Tory since 1997

Reform are an ongoing, real threat to Labour in the 'red wall' and traditional working class areas that have voted Labour forever. To suggest Reform are only a threat to Tories is incorrect.

 

[Purple Train]

I agree with @ainsworth74 above but we both have to acknowledge that the Reform message IS attracting Labour voters. The general election showed that with Reform coming second in many NE constituencies won by Labour. I suspect that will be reinforced with council wins for Reform in what were previously solid labour areas. I would keep an eye on Durham council in that regard

I would also keep an eye on what Reform do when in charge of a council. Wittering about stopping the boats and attacking forgins wont get the bins emptied and the pot holes filled in. I would also see how often "inappropriate" or "unsavoury" or " misguided" texts, tweets and statements result in councillors being kicked out Reform..............

Indeed, and it's only flying under the statistical radar because it's exactly the same people who were seduced by Boris J during his time as ringmaster, and the split vote let Labour in last year.

Oh absolutely, all is not well with Labour. I just reckon that the reaction is going to be "DOOOOOM FOR LABOUR" when it should be "DOOOOOM FOR TORIES but Labour in trouble too". I also continue to worry that the message Labour will take away from this is going to be that they've got to go further right chasing Reform voters when I reckon they'd be far better steering towards the centre and centre-left whilst showing that a) they give a damn and b) can actually improve peoples material conditions (or heck even just the vibes at this point).

A big chunk of the Reform vote is people who look at both main parties and go "Nah, tried that, didn't work, might as well try these as how can they be any worse and what have I got left to lose?". If Labour can offer a different vision and can back it up with material improvements to peoples live (and better vibes) they'll win votes back without ever needing to try and out Reform Reform. Which is a battle they won't win (because if you're voting Reform because you like say their rhetoric on immigration, you won't believe Labour when they say they'll get tough on immigration) but will cost them support from their other voter groups who they might actually otherwise have had a chance of winning.

This I absolutely agree with 100%. Labour need to hammer Reform for harking back to a bygone age of steel mills and smog, and silo focus on immigration (I don't know if I'm an outlier but I'm a left-wing conservative, so kind of who Reform are targeting, and their inhumane brand of conservatism makes me boil), rather than shoving the sphere of public discourse towards Reform's key battleground areas by trying to "out-Reform Reform". If I were Labour, I would be using all my effort trying to court the Greens with a view towards a merger - they're polling 10% and it's not as if they're a fringe extreme-liberal party like in Scotland, they are still simply... Green. Net zero is not destroying the country and the sooner Labour offer Dave from Ashfield, whose town is still scarred by the pit shutting, tangible proof of that the better. It doesn't stop facts from being out of fashion, but it doesn't kowtow to the idea.

(Posted before I saw takno's excellent post #100 but I agree with every word of it.)

 

[geoffk]

To me the majority of the Boomer vote is now lost to Reform, probably irrevocably. So let it go and create positive progressive politics for people who will vote for that.

I'm a Boomer and voted Green for the first time (Devon County Council). The Green candidate was the only one who came round canvassing and he won (by just 25 votes over ReformUK). The Tories have lost control of Devon and the Lib Dems have 27 of the 60 seats. With the Greens on 6, they could govern together and that should be good news for public transport. In contrast, the Exeter City Council by-election in my ward was won by ReformUK (abbreviated to REFUK in some reports!

 

[Welly]

29.9 % turnout in Lincolnshire!

 

[Gloster]

One thing that needs to be taken into account is who held the seats that are up this time the last time they were contested. I believe that the Conservatives won half as many again in 2021 as all the others combined.

In one way this might prove to be a Pyrrhic victory and the beginning of the end for Reform. They can no longer sit on the sidelines sniping: they are in charge and must deal with the matters. I have no doubt there will be lots of attempts to do things that are illegal or impossible, followed by whines that the government/other parties/the law/the civil service/etc. have it in for them and are stopping their brilliant plans. However, after four years of some of the Reform councils making a hash of things (I accept that some, probably most, won’t be too bad) the excuses will be wearing thin with the voters. And we will also see if they have lost the amateur description and that their slate of councillors will be honest and upright. It is possibly inevitable that any new party will attract a number of fringe nutters, but I wonder if Reform really has managed to weed most of them out. Or will we see local scandals in far greater numbers than the other parties tend to have.

 

[TheSmiths82]

Or will we see local scandals in far greater numbers than the other parties tend to have.

I suspect we will get a lot more scandals. The Guardian and another organisation investigated a lot of Reform councillors and so many of them had posted racist/vile things on their social media platforms.

 

[Trainguy34]

As someone who lives in a now reform area, I'm honestly flabbergasted at the results, never would I have guessed reform would win a conservative area like this, I was hoping for a labour victory but oh well...

 

[Thirteen]

One thing that needs to be taken into account is who held the seats that are up this time the last time they were contested. I believe that the Conservatives won half as many again in 2031 as all the others combined.

In one way this might prove to be a Pyrrhic victory and the beginning of the end for Reform. They can no longer sit on the sidelines sniping: they are in charge and must deal with the matters. I have no doubt there will be lots of attempts to do things that are illegal or impossible, followed by whines that the government/other parties/the law/the civil service/etc. have it in for them and are stopping their brilliant plans. However, after four years of some of the Reform councils making a hash of things (I accept that some, probably most, won’t be to bad) the excuses will be wearing thin with the voters. And we will also see if they have lost the amateur description and that their slate of councillors will be honest and upright. It is possibly inevitable that any new party will attract a number of fringe nutters, but I wonder if Reform really has managed to weed most of them out. Or will we see local scandals in far greater numbers than the other parties tend to have.

Didn't know you could see into the future!

The Runcorn by election result being won by such a tiny amount is no different to when George Galloway won Rochdale last year which he lost months later.

 

[Yew]

Apparently, there is no better way to stick it to the establishment and rebel against the way the country has been run, than by voting for a Dame Commander of the Order of the British Empire and former Parliamentary undersecretary of State, in a party ran by an establishment financier.