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Restarting HS2a

Xenophon PCDGS

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Supply and demand. Boost the supply of seats drastically and the price goes down.

Peak train from Birmingham to London. 390/1. 500 standard class seats at £95 each is £47k in revenue.

2 x HS2 classic compatible units. 850 standard class seats at £60 each is £48k in revenue. For a peak fare over that distance that's pretty reasonable, no?

If the captive units ever happen (which would probably only be with the full Y open) then you're looking at 1300-1400 standard class seats per train.
I admire your confidence that so much currently untapped travel demand is just awaiting to reach the passenger numbers that you cite on HS2 services between London and Birmingham.

Looking at electricity and gas domestic prices as an example, would you say that a large increase in generation capacity, will have the same price reduction per generated unit?
 
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Krokodil

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Looking at electricity and gas domestic prices as an example, would you say that a large increase in generation capacity, will have the same price reduction per generated unit?
When the wind is blowing strongly I do indeed pay peanuts for my electricity.
 

HSTEd

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I am interested to know what other income than passenger fares would be generated on the London to Birmingham rail route.
The Network Rail grant, which makes a substantial fraction of the railway industry's income.
 

The Planner

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Noting the following exchange I have to wonder how Handsacre Junction will be built if it is built. I cannot see how it would work to connect HS2 to the outer two slow lines of the West Coast Mainline at Handsacre Junction and run all HS2 train services North of Birmingham through Handsacre Junction. This is the fundamental problem with cancelling phase 2a. Surely it makes financial sense not to build Handsacre Junction and instead continue HS2 on the 2a route and connect HS2 to the West Coast Mainline South of Crewe as the Oakervee review recommended.
It will connect to the slows as its monumentally cheaper and doesnt actually cause that many problems. I agree that in a sensible world you would have gone straight to Crewe and not built it, though I suspect a bone had to be given to Stoke.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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Wonder how quickly the 3 Mayors can persuade Louise Haigh to restart HS2a to get it to Crewe ( using thier 3rd party / government funding) and reapply the safeguarding for HS2b
Perhaps the 3 Mayors could send one of their female staff to sing a suitable song to Louise Haigh about wanting to go to Birmingham but being taken along to Crewe.

I don't think that Norah Blaney is around these days, unfortunately.
 

Doctor Fegg

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Didn't BR once brand the Euston to Birmingham/Manchester services as "Intercity Shuttle"? Certainly I'd regard it as no bad thing if those flows could be treated as a turn up and go service at a reasonable price with an almost guaranteed chance of finding a seat.
Indeed. There were dedicated electronic signs on the New Street concourse (perhaps elsewhere too?) showing the next InterCity Shuttle train to London, when it departed and what platform it would be. The idea was that a train would always be waiting in the platform for you.
 

The Planner

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Indeed. There were dedicated electronic signs on the New Street concourse (perhaps elsewhere too?) showing the next InterCity Shuttle train to London, when it departed and what platform it would be. The idea was that a train would always be waiting in the platform for you.
Pretty sure there are Avanti signs that show that at New St.
 

HSTEd

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Indeed. There were dedicated electronic signs on the New Street concourse (perhaps elsewhere too?) showing the next InterCity Shuttle train to London, when it departed and what platform it would be. The idea was that a train would always be waiting in the platform for you.
I think, rather than being a reference to a single train shuttling back and and forth, the term "shuttle" has often been used on the UK railway to signify a high frequency, repetitive operational timetable.

The classical example that comes to my mind is the Edinburgh-Glasgow "shuttle" service, especially when operated by push pull stock.

In the US they have shuttle air corridors that were, before 9/11 threw security for a loop, entirely turn up and go.
 

kevin_roche

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If I remember correctly, BA promised to have a standby aircraft ready to go if the scheduled flight was full. I can remember making a mad dash to Heathrow in 1979 and just making it in time to get the last flight to Glasgow; pretty much straight off the underground and on to the plane.
I remember turning up and being put with about 5 other people on the standby plane. We all sat in the first 3 rows and the crew asked up to move back to balance the plane.
 

Peter Sarf

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I remember turning up and being put with about 5 other people on the standby plane. We all sat in the first 3 rows and the crew asked up to move back to balance the plane.
Pffft. I mean. C'mon, surely the staff should take the trouble to move back :lol:.
 

Cowley

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I remember turning up and being put with about 5 other people on the standby plane. We all sat in the first 3 rows and the crew asked up to move back to balance the plane.

I think it may be time for a slight intervention here…

Obviously we’re fairly lax in the speculative section because that’s what it’s for. But going back to the opening post:
“Wonder how quickly the 3 Mayors can persuade Louise Haigh to restart HS2a to get it to Crewe ( using their 3rd party / government funding) and reapply the safeguarding for HS2b”

There’s lax, and then there’s completely way off topic - which is where we are now. :lol:

So let’s get things vaguely back on the original subject and perhaps move away from discussing the weight distribution on airplanes now please…
 

350401

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The message that came out very strongly last Thursday at the Transport Select Committee, is “Get Phase One fixed, reset the programme in terms of cost certainty and schedule, then we can think about phase two” But until phase one is sorted, and whilst the PR is still bad, no politician will publicly commit to any extension. My money is on an extension of the phase 2a powers, no land sell off, but also no firm commitments. Then sometime in 2026, when things are hopefully more under control, it can be properly considered.

When we consider what has happened since the election; there has been some positive news. The Euston tunnels are being built and the railway systems contracts have been let.
 
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Peter Sarf

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The message that came out very strongly last Thursday at the Transport Select Committee, is “Get Phase One fixed, reset the programme in terms of cost certainty and schedule, then we can think about phase two” But until phase one is sorted, and whilst the PR is still bad, no politician will publicly commit to any extension. My money is on an extension of the phase 2a powers, no land sell off, but also no firm commitments. Then sometime in 2026, when things are hopefully more under control, it can be properly considered.

When we consider what has happened since the election; there has been some positive news. The Euston tunnels are being built and the railway systems contracts have been let.
Let us remind ourselves. Getting HS2 to Euston and fully built is more important than Phase-2a I am afraid.

Given how tight money is in the UK currently I think even a loan for HS2 Phase-2a will be baulked at by the media and politicians.

It is really up to Phase-1 to be finished and show benefit. So no chance of replacing Handsacre with Phase-2a sadly. I suspect no decision maker currently has the stomach to fly against the burgeoning public opinion (or indifference) created by Phase-2a. Even though Phase-2a is a totally obvious thing to do in the context of Phase-1 already happening.
 

Nottingham59

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Let us remind ourselves. Getting Euston done is probably more important than Phase-2a I am afraid.
The most important thing of all is extending platforms at Crewe to accommodate 400m trains. As far as I can see, this is not funded, yet this intervention will increase capacity through Handsacre at minimal cost.

EDIT
And Euston is not urgent. HS2 can run an 8tph service out of Old Oak Common indefinitely, and that is all that can get through Colwich junction if you want to keep WCML passenger and freight through there too.
 

Peter Sarf

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Wonder how quickly the 3 Mayors can persuade Louise Haigh to restart HS2a to get it to Crewe ( using thier 3rd party / government funding) and reapply the safeguarding for HS2b
I also have to wonder. What happens if no "3rd party" wants to lend the money to build Phase-2a ?.
 

Nottingham59

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I also have to wonder. What happens if no "3rd party" wants to lend the money to build Phase-2a ?.
They will, depending on how generous the track access charges are for using that infrastructure. If governments want external funding for 2a, then they will find a way.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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The most important thing of all is extending platforms at Crewe to accommodate 400m trains. As far as I can see, this is not funded, yet this intervention will increase capacity through Handsacre at minimal cost.
How can extending platforms at Crewe be the most important thing? The most important things are those which are fully committed in all respects. Crewe is not a fully committed project as things stand at this moment in time.
 

takno

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They will, depending on how generous the track access charges are for using that infrastructure. If governments want external funding for 2a, then they will find a way.
They can probably joint fund it with the green investment bank if necessary. The important thing for the Treasury is probably to get it built as a commercial investment rather than a political project being run via the DfT.
 

Nottingham59

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How can extending platforms at Crewe be the most important thing? The most important things are those which are fully committed in all respects. Crewe is not a fully committed project as things stand at this moment in time.
You need 400m platforms at Crewe run 400m trains. In terms of capacity through Colwich, that's more important than 2a or Euston
 

Krokodil

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It is really up to Phase-1 to be finished and show benefit.
Sadly I agree, it will probably take Phase 1 opening to traffic and becoming successful to bring people around to the benefits of Phase 2. In the meantime people travelling between London/Birmingham and Manchester will have to continue to tolerate overcrowding and sky-high fares.

Who actually in real life decides what is the most important thing for the Treasury?
Probably the Permanent Secretary more than the politicians

You need 400m platforms at Crewe run 400m trains. In terms of capacity through Colwich, that's more important than 2a or Euston
Having the London terminus out on the far edge of Zone 2 is idiotic. If you want to win the argument about phase 2 with the electorate you need them to first feel that phase 1 is useful to them. That starts with having it terminate in Zone 1.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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You need 400m platforms at Crewe run 400m trains. In terms of capacity through Colwich, that's more important than 2a or Euston
But, as I have already been at pains to point out, Crewe as such is not part of the currently agreed project and those in charge of the application of finance to this current project will only fund what is in the agreed itinerary, not anything external to what has been agreed. When and if funding is agreed for extension to Crewe, that will be the time to consider the matter that you proposed, but most definitely not before.
 

Nottingham59

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But, as I have already been at pains to point out, Crewe as such is not part of the currently agreed project and those in charge of the application of finance to this current project will only fund what is in the agreed itinerary, not anything external to what has been agreed. When and if funding is agreed for extension to Crewe, that will be the time to consider the matter that you proposed, but most definitely not before.
But this is a thread about restarting 2a. So the scope includes spending beyond phase 1.

Having the London terminus out on the far edge of Zone 2 is idiotic. If you want to win the argument about phase 2 with the electorate you need them to first feel that phase 1 is useful to them. That starts with having it terminate in Zone 1.
Whether it's idiotic is not the point. All the modelling shows that 30 - 40% of HS2 passengers will use Old Oak Common, even with Euston available.

Without a solution to Colwich, HS2 is limited to around six trains per hour to destinations north of Handsacre. I would expect them to be able to fill all six 200m just from Old Oak. In which case, spending £5 billion on building Euston won't buy you any more capacity at all.

But spending £100m lengthening two platforms at Crewe would enable perhaps four of trains to be 400m long, buying you 4 x 550 seats extra capacity per hour.
 
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daodao

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But spending £100m lengthening two platforms at Crewe would enable perhaps four of trains to be 400m long, buying you 4 x 550 seats extra capacity per hour.
Express WCML trains from Euston don't terminate at Crewe, so platforms there that can accommodate 400 m long trains would be useless by themselves unless other key stations served by express WCML trains also have platform extensions, and signalling/loops along the existing current routes intended to be served by HS2 trains are designed to cope with 400 m long trains. Until/unless HS2 is extended north of Handsacre, the majority of trains to Manchester are likely to continue to run via Stoke anyway, because there won't be the capacity for them to continue north of Colwich on the WCML itself.

It is far more important for HS2 to run from Euston as soon after it opens as possible, than to build any part of HS2 north of Handsacre. Given that extending HS2 north of Handsacre isn't going to happen for quite some time (if ever), would it not be desirable to build some longer HS2 trains (about 265 m) for use on lines north of Handsacre, so as to maintain capacity on routes that aren't suitable for 2x 200m (i.e. 400 m) long trains?
 

Class15

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Express WCML trains from Euston don't terminate at Crewe, so platforms there that can accommodate 400 m long trains would be useless by themselves unless other key stations served by express WCML trains also have platform extensions, and signalling/loops along the existing current routes intended to be served by HS2 trains are designed to cope with 400 m long trains. Until/unless HS2 is extended north of Handsacre, the majority of trains to Manchester are likely to continue to run via Stoke anyway, because there won't be the capacity for them to continue north of Colwich on the WCML itself.
What you might be able to do is have trains for Liverpool and Glasgow, for example, split at Crewe. This wouldn’t require any extra platform lengthening anywhere else.
 

takno

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What you might be able to do is have trains for Liverpool and Glasgow, for example, split at Crewe. This wouldn’t require any extra platform lengthening anywhere else.
Alternatively you could do a couple of platforms at Crewe and a couple at Carlisle, and run Scotland trains non-stop Birmingham to Carlisle. I think the biggest danger is thinking that the whole station needs to be rebuilt to achieve the minimum viable result
 

BrianW

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Express WCML trains from Euston don't terminate at Crewe, so platforms there that can accommodate 400 m long trains would be useless by themselves unless other key stations served by express WCML trains also have platform extensions, and signalling/loops along the existing current routes intended to be served by HS2 trains are designed to cope with 400 m long trains. Until/unless HS2 is extended north of Handsacre, the majority of trains to Manchester are likely to continue to run via Stoke anyway, because there won't be the capacity for them to continue north of Colwich on the WCML itself.

It is far more important for HS2 to run from Euston as soon after it opens as possible, than to build any part of HS2 north of Handsacre. Given that extending HS2 north of Handsacre isn't going to happen for quite some time (if ever), would it not be desirable to build some longer HS2 trains (about 265 m) for use on lines north of Handsacre, so as to maintain capacity on routes that aren't suitable for 2x 200m (i.e. 400 m) long trains?
How 'commutable' will places like Birmingham, London, Liverpool, Manchester, Glasgow, Edinburgh be from a Cheshire New Town centred on Crewe be? Is it possible to 'think big'?
 

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