Rethink urged over 'absurd' HS2-HS1 link

[The Ham]

http://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2013/06/01-rethink-urged-over-absurd-hs2hs1.html

A REPORT from the pro-High Speed rail group Greengauge21 warns that the proposed link in London between HS1 and HS2 will not be enough to cope with the demand for domestic services, while the mayor of one east London borough has branded the single-track limitations of the suggested connection as 'absurd' and called for an urgent reappraisal.

Greengauge21 director Jim Steer said: "We have identified a substantial demand for domestic high-speed rail services over the proposed link connecting HS1 and HS2. The market from the North and Midlands addressed by HS2 to places in the HS1 catchment – East London, Essex and Kent – is important and nearly half the size of the market to/from central London.”

“Meeting this demand provides the core missing rationale for including the HS1–HS2 link in the Phase 1 scheme. Providing a link between HS1 and HS2 would provide a real alternative to much of the longer distance car travel around London on the M25. The report estimates that rail could increase its market share by up to 23 per cent for journeys between the catchments served by HS1 and HS2.”

Direct international services using the link with a London stop at Stratford International will also be attractive, Greengauge21 suggests, but the service frequencies will inevitably be lower than those from St Pancras.

Do others think such a link would be well used by regional services?

 

[transmanche]

Do others think such a link would be well used by regional services?

Yes. I also think that there will be a market for HS2 services to go to Stratford rather than Euston (like an east London 'overflow') based purely on its location close to Docklands and the multitude of transport connections available.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Here it the report if anyone is interested in reading it. Makes an interesting case for running services from HS1 to Heathrow station using the old GWR link form Old Oak Common to the New North Main Line.

http://www.greengauge21.net/wp-cont...emand-and-the-HS1-–-HS2-link-Greengauge21.pdf

 

[paul1609]

http://www.railnews.co.uk/news/2013/06/01-rethink-urged-over-absurd-hs2hs1.html



Do others think such a link would be well used by regional services?

Personally I dont, I cant see any destination North of london where the market for travel to International Destinations would support a profitable service and with a frequent service from HS1 stations and 10 minute walk to Euston I dont see much of a market for a couple of through trains a day.

 

[quantinghome]

Personally I dont, I cant see any destination North of london where the market for travel to International Destinations would support a profitable service and with a frequent service from HS1 stations and 10 minute walk to Euston I dont see much of a market for a couple of through trains a day.

I may have got the wrong end of the stick, but isn't the report arguing that there is significant domestic demand between the Midlands/North and East London/Essex/Kent for the link to be viable?

In terms of international services, in theory there would be significant demand between Paris and a conurbation the size of the West Midlands, given a three-hour journey time. This is comparable to (say) Paris-Marseilles. I admit this is rather simplistic as it ignores the significant difference in economic links and also the difficulties imposed by Eurostar security arrangements. Nevertheless, if the domestic demand is sufficient for the link to 'wash its face', the international services could then be built up over time.

 

[tbtc]

I may have got the wrong end of the stick, but isn't the report arguing that there is significant domestic demand between the Midlands/North and East London/Essex/Kent for the link to be viable?

Yes.

TBH, its not a market that I'd considered to be significant enough to warrant a through service.

I can see those in East London, Essex and Kent wanting to be part of HS2 and have such services, of course, but not convinced it's worthwhile.

In terms of international services, in theory there would be significant demand between Paris and a conurbation the size of the West Midlands, given a three-hour journey time. This is comparable to (say) Paris-Marseilles. I admit this is rather simplistic as it ignores the significant difference in economic links and also the difficulties imposed by Eurostar security arrangements. Nevertheless, if the domestic demand is sufficient for the link to 'wash its face', the international services could then be built up over time.

Even after all the years that Eurostar has been operating the service is roughly hourly from London to Paris and roughly bi-hourly from London to Brussels?

So despite the obvious draw of London to Paris, the existing services could cope with a single track chord (at that frequency)? Whilst I'd love a service from Sheffield to the continent, I really can't see there being too many trains a day for a single track chord to cope with.

 

[Harpers Tate]

It seems to me that (aside from any issues over the specific route, places served and people's back yards) the main "flaw" with the HS2 plan is precisely that it comes into Euston, and not King's Pancras. If it did terminate where HS1 and Eurostar terminate then there would be no need for a link nor for through services (unless, of course, demand became evident). Because we could travel HS2 <> HS1 without having to drag our cases for 10-15 minutes (whether on foot or by tube) through London.

 

[NSEFAN]

It seems to me that (aside from any issues over the specific route, places served and people's back yards) the main "flaw" with the HS2 plan is precisely that it comes into Euston, and not King's Pancras. If it did terminate where HS1 and Eurostar terminate then there would be no need for a link nor for through services (unless, of course, demand became evident). Because we could travel HS2 <> HS1 without having to drag our cases for 10-15 minutes (whether on foot or by tube) through London.

Isn't the point of HS2 to increase capacity on the WCML? If so, surely it makes sense to keep the main terminus as Euston, with a link to HS1 for International trains?

 

[edwin_m]

The sites for the HS2 London station were examined very thoroughly and Euston was about the only sensible choice once it was decided that a centrally located terminus was necessary. Having said that, I don't think they considered Euston Cross type proposals with a through station in central London and trains running on to destinations beyond or turning back in sidings.

 

[Martin222002]

I have been warming to the idea of the Euston Cross station concept, and if you were to say have 1 of the 3 proposed trains per hour from Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds to go east from Euston, that would provide another link to the Docklands at Stratford International, and as the Railnews article suggest, would provide a better interchange for international services at Ebbsfleet International than a direct link between Euston and St Pancras.

 

[VTPreston_Tez]

I know a fair few people that travel from Preston and Manchester to Canary Wharf and the area around there on a regular basis. This would be optimal for them and even allows for business trips and leisure to France etc. which is a free bonus.

 

[Holly]

... I cant see any destination North of london where the market for travel to International Destinations ...

The report said " ... identified a substantial demand for domestic high-speed rail services over the proposed link connecting HS1 and HS2. ..."

That is, more demand for through Midlands - Kent services than plans presently allow for.

 

[185]

The question is market availability. If Easyjet, Ryanair and the rest are making a fortune ferrying people out of the UK, the railway can take a share and thus reduce the environmental impact caused by aviation.

For example, Manchester - 1hr 20 to HS2>HS1 junction, 1hr 50 to Paris-bypass, 2hr 40 to Marseille.

- That's 5hrs50 Manchester - Marseille down the ligne TGV-SE, avoiding all the airport checking in hassle.

Start off with a weekly service using the same cost low cost rising quota model as the airlines use then run them out of business as the rail service runs more often.

 

[northwichcat]

I think a key point of consideration is calling points.

If a train does Manchester-Paris with one stop to pick up in London then the timings may be good compared to air travel for people travelling between Manchester and Paris.

However, what if you're actual journey is Wilmslow to Amiens? The rail has an opportunity to make journeys like that easier than travel by air and if all the trains run non-stop then that opportunity is lost. Now I'm not trying to say Wilmslow or Amiens should be calling points but if Crewe and Lille were then it would still make Wilmslow to Amiens easier by rail.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Whilst I'd love a service from Sheffield to the continent, I really can't see there being too many trains a day for a single track chord to cope with.

Add to that every large place in the North with a direct London link will want a direct Europe link.

I think any direct services from the North would need to be limited to the times when there is most demand so you have a few services a week opposed to a few a day.

 

[paul1609]

The report said " ... identified a substantial demand for domestic high-speed rail services over the proposed link connecting HS1 and HS2. ..."

That is, more demand for through Midlands - Kent services than plans presently allow for.

Problem is that there is very little demand for services from Ashford and Ebsfleet to the Midlands thats not already met by HS1 and a ten minute walk to Euston. I live near Ashford, the only reason that I have travelled to Birmingham in the past ten years was to travel on the SVR if I wasnt a rail enthusiast I doubt that I would have ever travelled there. I cant see personally that there would be much demand at all.

 

[HSTEd]

Ok, so lets say there is a significant market from say Ashford to Birmingham.

Run a clockface hourly service..... still not coming close to overloading the proposed single track route.

 

[Chris125]

I have been warming to the idea of the Euston Cross station concept, and if you were to say have 1 of the 3 proposed trains per hour from Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds to go east from Euston, that would provide another link to the Docklands at Stratford International, and as the Railnews article suggest, would provide a better interchange for international services at Ebbsfleet International than a direct link between Euston and St Pancras.

I believe boring a second pair of tunnels into Stratford International is not considered feasible, hence why the fully-tunnelled option for the HS1-2 link described in the refinement consultation extends as far out as Barking where HS1 resurfaces.

Realistically I can't see the cost and construction time needed for that much tunnelling, plus the vast subterranean station at Euston, ever being justified by the limited demand for through services.

Chris

 

[mr_jrt]

I believe boring a second pair of tunnels into Stratford International is not considered feasible, hence why the fully-tunnelled option for the HS1-2 link described in the refinement consultation extends as far out as Barking where HS1 resurfaces.

Realistically I can't see the cost and construction time needed for that much tunnelling, plus the vast subterranean station at Euston, ever being justified by the limited demand for through services.

Chris

I do question this point-blank refusal. It'd be highly-disruptive, obviously, but still should at least be possible, even if HS1 services had to terminate at Stratford for a month or so whilst the junctions were put in place.

 

[HSTEd]

The cost of Euston Cross in comparison to the proposed single track route would pay for the majority of an extension to Newcastle or a spur from Wigan to Liverpool.
Both are of considerably more use, both operationally and politically.

 

[Morgsie]

From day one my view is the link should HS and euro gauge standards, through domestic and international services. I am coming round to the Euston Cross station idea and I hope the DfT and HS2 Ltd is looking at this proposal in detail

The regional Eurostar and through sleeper's to the continent concepts can be revived and adapted.

Also HS1 is still operating below capacity

 

[HSTEd]

Frankly the only places I think that could justify a sleeper service would be entirely seasonal, for instance we will soon have standard gauge track all the way to Malaga (has the Barcelona avoiding line opened yet? I can't seem to find information on it) and high speed track for all but about 50 miles of said journey.
We wil soon have high speed track almost all of the way to the Alps.

You might be able to concieve of a seasonal overnight train system that alternated between summer and winter destinations, but I don't know if that would come anywhere near to justifying the expense.

 

[43074]

How would passport/customs control work on a service from, say, Birmingham to Paris.

Would everyone have to detrain at Lille, would there be on train checks or what?

I can imagine a great deal of inconvenience with passport checks if not done properly.

 

[tbtc]

Add to that every large place in the North with a direct London link will want a direct Europe link.

I think any direct services from the North would need to be limited to the times when there is most demand so you have a few services a week opposed to a few a day.

True - if Manchester got a direct Paris service then Leeds would demand one (whether it was justified or not), and vice versa.

A single track chord will be sufficient to cope with any such demand (if the London to Paris market has only grown to roughly one train an hour)

 

[MCW]

How would passport/customs control work on a service from, say, Birmingham to Paris.

Would everyone have to detrain at Lille, would there be on train checks or what?

I can imagine a great deal of inconvenience with passport checks if not done properly.

and since we are talking in the future, if the EU goes belly up or something does happen, the inconvenience will be worse...

personally, as a normal bod, I would be happy just to get to london or south of london in less time than I do now...

 

[Chris125]

I do question this point-blank refusal.

I don't see anything 'point blank' about it, if i remember correctly they've previously flagged it up as having possible engineering issues so the reference to tunnelling out to Barking in this latest consultation suggesting it's now been ruled it out hardly comes as a surprise.

Chris

 

[edwin_m]

I think the only way any significant international service could run beyond London would be if we abandoned the security screening (arguably unnecessary on a train) and found a way to do passport checks on the train, so that the same service could carry domestic as well as international passengers.

I think I'm right in saying that Eurostar is the only service that carries only international passengers, and that is only viable because it links three of Europe's major capitals that happen to be at the ideal distance apart for rail to compete with air. Without the government-imposed restrictions there is the possiblity of a service say every two hours Birmingham-Airport-OOC-Stratford-Ebbsfleet-Ashford-Paris. None of these point-to-point markets is enough to justify a frequent train with several hundred seats, but by tapping into all of them it might just work.

 

[paul1609]

To be honest I cant see that Birmingham would be able to justify one train a day to Paris. Once you are talking high speed you are talking premium fares. Walk up fares of 400-500 ukp, advances from 200 ukp?

 

[John07]

To be honest I cant see that Birmingham would be able to justify one train a day to Paris. Once you are talking high speed you are talking premium fares. Walk up fares of 400-500 ukp, advances from 200 ukp?

High speed rail is not about premium prices. There will be a hell of a lot of seats to fill and that will not happen with high prices.

 

[HSTEd]

To be honest I cant see that Birmingham would be able to justify one train a day to Paris. Once you are talking high speed you are talking premium fares. Walk up fares of 400-500 ukp, advances from 200 ukp?

More like advance fares in the £30 region with walkups in the £50-60 region.

The marginal cost of fares with proper rolling stock are extremely low.
There is also essentially no scarcity cost, as a single train can potentially have 1300+ seats.

 

[Metrailway]

It has been a while since I looked at HS2 Ltd's figures but if I remember correctly, they intend to achieve £31 billion of additional rail revenue over 60 years.

Would walkup fares in the region of £50 achieve this objective?