Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[BAFRA77]

Theresa May is one I'm surprised about since she's by all accounts a good local MP but I wonder if wants to retire now rather than be in opposition again.

It does mean we're likely to see a lot of new blood come the next Parliament which could be a good thing.

Well - you saw the lot who came to the House for the first time in 2019 - I'd rather not repeat the dearth of skills and/or empathy of any of those new Tory MPs that got as a result

 

[40C]

Theresa May needs to put her feet up and take it easy, not take on new things. To me she looks like a totally worn out old lady who visibly aged by about 20 years during her time as PM.

 

[Snow1964]

Well - you saw the lot who came to the House for the first time in 2019 - I'd rather not repeat the dearth of skills and/or empathy of any of those new Tory MPs that got as a result

currently there are 144 ministerial posts held by 126 people (some have two roles).

I doubt that Labour would find that many quality skilled people either, and bound to be few that get a role through seniority or because they know someone, rather than because they have sharpest grasp.

 

[ainsworth74]

currently there are 144 ministerial posts held by 126 people (some have two roles).

Personally I would question if we even need 144 ministerial posts. Many of them are more about locking in a certain number of MPs votes (as they cannot vote against without quitting the Government and even abstaining is trickier) rather than doing anything useful...

 

[dosxuk]

With another poll predicting a Labour landslide out today (LAB 46%, CON 18%, REF 13%, LDEM 10%) resulting in a prediction of the Tories getting only 25 seats, they may be worrying more about whether they even have enough MP's to form a shadow cabinet than if there's enough high quality options.

 

[Kite159]

Theresa May needs to put her feet up and take it easy, not take on new things. To me she looks like a totally worn out old lady who visibly aged by about 20 years during her time as PM.

Can't blame her for wanting to retire, especially with the endless attacks from the labour party supporters (aka the nasty party). Afterall being a MP has long hours, especially over summer time when some visit various village summer fairs.

Especially as she could make more money from the 'after dinner speaking market' when watching as Kier attempts to run the country

 

[Howardh]

Theresa May is one I'm surprised about since she's by all accounts a good local MP but I wonder if wants to retire now rather than be in opposition again.

It does mean we're likely to see a lot of new blood come the next Parliament which could be a good thing.

Looking at the current polls the new blood will be red, not blue! And Libdem of course!

With another poll predicting a Labour landslide out today (LAB 46%, CON 18%, REF 13%, LDEM 10%) resulting in a prediction of the Tories getting only 25 seats, they may be worrying more about whether they even have enough MP's to form a shadow cabinet than if there's enough high quality options.

At that rate they won't even be the opposition, even if they do another deal with the Unionists. The LD's would be the official opposition, which would be interesting!

 

[brad465]

At that rate they won't even be the opposition, even if they do another deal with the Unionists. The LD's would be the official opposition, which would be interesting!

The Tories might even become the champions of PR if they get fewer seats than the Lib Dems despite a higher vote share.

 

[Howardh]

The Tories might even become the champions of PR if they get fewer seats than the Lib Dems despite a higher vote share.

Not before time! If we get another vote on PR/AV which we had in 2010(?) then its only fair we get one on the EU too. Maybe the Tories will put both in their manifesto?

Course not, but that might be the only way they can attract votes back from Labour and the LD's?

 

[uglymonkey]

Surely the minister these days is just a figure head ? Nice enough, public speaker, easy on the eye, good at deflecting questions and knowing which way the wind is blowing in their party. Their knowledge of their department is all held by the civil servants and the minister just parrots what they are told at the daily briefings ? No real grasp of health, education or the ministry of silly walks, but just knows what to say , in that moment, from their "Q" cards provided by the civil servants?

 

[ainsworth74]

Surely the minister these days is just a figure head ? Nice enough, public speaker, easy on the eye, good at deflecting questions and knowing which way the wind is blowing in their party. Their knowledge of their department is all held by the civil servants and the minister just parrots what they are told at the daily briefings ? No real grasp of health, education or the ministry of silly walks, but just knows what to say , in that moment, from their "Q" cards provided by the civil servants?

Civil Servants advise, Ministers decide. As it ever was.

 

[317 forever]

Think the clever money is on the latter! watch plenty more go to avoid the "Portillo Moment"!

Fast forward to yesterday, and Theresa May is standing down and therefore Maidenhead will not provide this year's Portillo moment.

 

[Typhoon]

Fast forward to yesterday, and Theresa May is standing down and therefore Maidenhead will not provide this year's Portillo moment.

May is well respected in Maidenhead so will probably have a significant personal vote. She also represents what might be called traditional Conservatism (probably more popular in the Thames Valley than the various versions promoted by failed ministers desperately craving publicity). An interesting quote:

She also criticised the current political climate, saying in an article for the Times that she had “seen a coarsening of our debates and less respect for others’ views”.

A sentiment that certainly resonates with me.

The alternative would have been to gone down the Ted Heath route and spend a decade or two grumbling from the backbenches. Better that she leaves and tries to make a name for herself in the worthy cause of reducing human trafficking.

Quote: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...y-to-step-down-as-mp-at-next-general-election

 

[317 forever]

The Tories might even become the champions of PR if they get fewer seats than the Lib Dems despite a higher vote share.

Michael Forsyth made me laugh when he moaned about the Conservatives experiencing wipeout in Scotland in 1997 despite getting more votes than the Liberal Democrats.

 

[nw1]

Well - you saw the lot who came to the House for the first time in 2019 - I'd rather not repeat the dearth of skills and/or empathy of any of those new Tory MPs that got as a result

Indeed, I'd say that, in general, it's the younger generation of Tory MPs that are the most right-wing and reactionary. In contrast to the trend in the general population, Tory MPs born from around 1980 onwards do seem to be, in general, quite right-wing and reactionary, especially compared to Tory MPs born before about 1965.

I'd prefer to see more of the older generation, like May, hang around but obviously if May's had enough she has the absolute right to go.

Or we could see the Conservative party taken over by wet-behind-the-ears twenty-year olds who want to go further than even Truss did: privatise the army, block the Channel Tunnel, reducing everything to a single tax rate for all, etc. They will be the true believers who have never lived in the real world…and they will carry through their policies when they finally get in power.

Nah, too soft: real believers want to blow up the Channel Tunnel and completely ban all foreigners from visiting here for more than 14 days. Oh, and abolish the decimal £ (replacing it with the groat) and ban SI units.

 

[Acfb]

Indeed, I'd say that, in general, it's the younger generation of Tory MPs that are the most right-wing and reactionary. In contrast to the trend in the general population, Tory MPs born from around 1980 onwards do seem to be, in general, quite right-wing and reactionary, especially compared to Tory MPs born before about 1965.

I'd prefer to see more of the older generation, like May, hang around but obviously if May's had enough she has the absolute right to go.



Nah, too soft: real believers want to blow up the Channel Tunnel and completely ban all foreigners from visiting here for more than 14 days. Oh, and abolish the decimal £ and ban SI units.

It's quite complicated I think. Alicia Kearns (born 1987) seems very moderate overall and a staunch defender of trans rights and has voiced concern for Palestinians and has provided proper scrutiny of David Cameron. Then you've got Laura Trott (born 1984) who was a Cameron advisor but then has migrated to the right in search of promotion. Andrew Bowie (born 1987) is similar.

There are some very right wing younger MPs though yes like Jonathan Gullis (born 1991) who was a teacher?!, Tom Pursglove (born 1988), Dehenna Davison (born 1993), Scott Benton (born 1987) etc.

Also Robert Largan (born 1987) seems quite right wing to me even if he is not a 'headbanger' exactly like the others and is an ultra tribal Tory supporter and appears to really dislike local Labour and Green party activists.

Can't blame her for wanting to retire, especially with the endless attacks from the labour party supporters (aka the nasty party). Afterall being a MP has long hours, especially over summer time when some visit various village summer fairs.

Especially as she could make more money from the 'after dinner speaking market' when watching as Kier attempts to run the country

I think you can make an argument that she was the least bad Tory PM since 2010 as although she did cause some damage in the year after the Brexit vote, she was generally clearing up after other people's mess. She doesn't really rankle with me like the others because she didn't really have sycophantic supporters in the media like the others and I think she was trying to provide her duties to the public. Also like Victoria Atkins I sympathise with her having Type 1 Diabetes.

 

[Thirteen]

I suspect a lot of the newer bunch will shift to the centre after the next election.

Elliot Coburn is one of the few Conservative MP I like although I’m unsure if he’ll retain his seat or not

 

[nw1]

It's quite complicated I think. Alicia Kearns (born 1987) seems very moderate overall and a staunch defender of trans rights and has voiced concern for Palestinians and has provided proper scrutiny of David Cameron. Then you've got Laura Trott (born 1984) who was a Cameron advisor but then has migrated to the right in search of promotion. Andrew Bowie (born 1987) is similar.

There are some very right wing younger MPs though yes like Jonathan Gullis (born 1991) who was a teacher?!, Tom Pursglove (born 1988), Dehenna Davison (born 1993), Scott Benton (born 1987) etc.

Also Robert Largan (born 1987) seems quite right wing to me even if he is not a 'headbanger' exactly like the others and is an ultra tribal Tory supporter and appears to really dislike local Labour and Green party activists.

Perhaps true; the ones you mention are quite obscure whereas the likes of Braverman, Badenoch, Gullis and Benton (those four were the ones I had in mind in particular) are rarely far from the news.

Christian Wakeford is of course a counter-example, so much so that he isn't even a Tory anymore.

I'd heard of Largan as High Peak was one of those ultra-marginal seats being discussed last time; looks a bit like Conor Burns physically, if I remember right.

Majority of 590, which means it's surely going to switch back next time. He isn't doing the chicken run, though.

Given High Peak was also Tory before 2010 and between 2010-17, that suggests that it's, if anything, trending leftwards with only the "Boris effect" returning it - just - to the Tories last time.

Can't blame her for wanting to retire, especially with the endless attacks from the labour party supporters (aka the nasty party). Afterall being a MP has long hours, especially over summer time when some visit various village summer fairs.

May had plenty of attacks from her own party, of course.

And it wasn't Labour who forced her to resign as PM. That was very much an inside job, driven by the Brexit fundamentalists and the blind ambition of Johnson. I suspect May and Labour could have come to a reasonable agreement had the ERG lot not constantly stuck their oar in, in an effort to get their man Boris installed as PM.

It's pretty obvious to me who "the nasty party" are, at least since 2019, and it ain't Labour.

 

[Richard Scott]

May had plenty of attacks from her own party, of course.

And it wasn't Labour who forced her to resign as PM. That was very much an inside job, driven by the Brexit fundamentalists and the blind ambition of Johnson. I suspect May and Labour could have come to a reasonable agreement had the ERG lot not constantly stuck their oar in, in an effort to get their man Boris installed as PM.

It's pretty obvious to me who "the nasty party" are, at least since 2019, and it ain't Labour

Well they didn't help as didn't support her proposal for leaving EU, which let Boris in and left us in a worse position so Labour should take some of the blame.

 

[AM9]

Well they didn't help as didn't support her proposal for leaving EU, which let Boris in and left us in a worse position so Labour should take some of the blame.

It's not the role of the opposition to support a government that fights internally, - had they done that they would be pilloried for acting against the will of the public. From the announcement of the result of the referendum, the nasty party was being driven from 55 Tufton Street by it's network of lobby groups, disguised as 'think tanks'. It started with the ERG, and is still undermining the traditional function of the Conservative party although now more openly in the guise of Reform.

 

[ainsworth74]

Fast forward to yesterday, and Theresa May is standing down and therefore Maidenhead will not provide this year's Portillo moment.

My money is still on Hunt for that.

 

[Typhoon]

My money is still on Hunt for that.

I suggest you would get short odds on that; other than Sunak himself and Gove, all the others are pretty much unknowns. A picture of Cleverly or Mordaunt (and only because of the Coronation) might jog memories, but whether they could name them is questionable. I reckon a fair number still think Rees-Mogg is in government.

(I don't suppose the Labour shadow cabinet will do much better.)

 

[SynthD]

Even if they aren’t reduced to as low as 30 MPs, they will want a new leader simply for losing the election. Sunak will leave too, he just can’t say it yet. I predict that they choose Mordaunt as caretaker leader, giving Tufton St time to pick their puppet from the new intake and pump up their image.

 

[sor]

isn't Mordaunt predicted to lose her seat?

Tufton St already have their woman - Badenoch - and barring a post election civil war (because it turns out the country isn't remotely as right wing as they presently think) they'll remain in control of the party

 

[nw1]

My money is still on Hunt for that.

Godalming and Ash? Will be somewhat difficult for Hunt to lose that I suspect. If it was a seat further in, like Esher and Walton, then I'd say yes but that far out, in a rural and very affluent area, I'm not so sure.

isn't Mordaunt predicted to lose her seat?

A lot of predictions are suggesting that, though I get the impression that Mordaunt is someone with quite a big local following, and there was of course her part in the Coronation. I rather suspect she will buck the trend.

On the other hand I suspect Portsmouth South will have a huge Labour majority.

 

[Purple Train]

I'd heard of Largan as High Peak was one of those ultra-marginal seats being discussed last time; looks a bit like Conor Burns physically, if I remember right.

Majority of 590, which means it's surely going to switch back next time. He isn't doing the chicken run, though.

Given High Peak was also Tory before 2010 and between 2010-17, that suggests that it's, if anything, trending leftwards with only the "Boris effect" returning it - just - to the Tories last time.

Largan's an interesting one. He seems to be moderately well-respected locally and has at least kept largely out of the national limelight. I really liked his maiden speech (criticising "ideological puritanism" and promising to be prepared to criticise his party if he felt it necessary) but I haven't seen him live up to that brief much, if at all. I seem to remember him saying that he was a Conservative as they were "the least worst option", so it's interesting to see him described as "ultra right" - not that I think that the original poster is wrong, just that it would seem like quite the dramatic U-turn from his stated positions!

 

[nw1]

Largan's an interesting one. He seems to be moderately well-respected locally and has at least kept largely out of the national limelight. I really liked his maiden speech (criticising "ideological puritanism" and promising to be prepared to criticise his party if he felt it necessary) but I haven't seen him live up to that brief much, if at all. I seem to remember him saying that he was a Conservative as they were "the least worst option", so it's interesting to see him described as "ultra right" - not that I think that the original poster is wrong, just that it would seem like quite the dramatic U-turn from his stated positions!

Nobody accused Largan specifically of being "ultra right wing" looking at the posts above though, to be fair.

 

[Richard Scott]

It's not the role of the opposition to support a government that fights internally, - had they done that they would be pilloried for acting against the will of the public. From the announcement of the result of the referendum, the nasty party was being driven from 55 Tufton Street by it's network of lobby groups, disguised as 'think tanks'. It started with the ERG, and is still undermining the traditional function of the Conservative party although now more openly in the guise of Reform.

So why did they support Boris then?
It was obvious to me what would happen if they didn't support May's plans for Brexit and guess what, it did!
Labour messed up there, end of.

 

[AM9]

So why did they support Boris then?
It was obvious to me what would happen if they didn't support May's plans for Brexit and guess what, it did!
Labour messed up there, end of.

Nope, you can't blame the opposition for the government"s mistakes. The government had a majority and it is wholly responsible for the actions that it took. That's not to say that they weren't influenced by others in the HoC, but ultimately the earned absolute power over the legislation timetable, so they accept responsibility for the consequences.

 

[The Ham]

Godalming and Ash? Will be somewhat difficult for Hunt to lose that I suspect. If it was a seat further in, like Esher and Walton, then I'd say yes but that far out, in a rural and very affluent area, I'm not so sure.

There's bits of Ash which aren't that affluent.

Also according to the district council's lists Godalming as quite a mixed bag, but quite a strong Lib Dem and Labour presence:

Your Councillors - Waverley Borough Council

With the County Council Councillors for Godalming being Lib Dems:

Your Councillors - Surrey County Council

mycouncil.surreycc.gov.uk

Obviously past election results don't mean that the Tories are going to lose, however it does indicate that it's not as True Blue as many would expect - although I do think that's a fairly recent shift.