Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[brad465]

Godalming and Ash? Will be somewhat difficult for Hunt to lose that I suspect. If it was a seat further in, like Esher and Walton, then I'd say yes but that far out, in a rural and very affluent area, I'm not so sure.


A lot of predictions are suggesting that, though I get the impression that Mordaunt is someone with quite a big local following, and there was of course her part in the Coronation. I rather suspect she will buck the trend.

On the other hand I suspect Portsmouth South will have a huge Labour majority.

There's bits of Ash which aren't that affluent.

Also according to the district council's lists Godalming as quite a mixed bag, but quite a strong Lib Dem and Labour presence:

Your Councillors - Waverley Borough Council

modgov.waverley.gov.uk

With the County Council Councillors for Godalming being Lib Dems:

Your Councillors - Surrey County Council

mycouncil.surreycc.gov.uk

Obviously past election results don't mean that the Tories are going to lose, however it does indicate that it's not as True Blue as many would expect - although I do think that's a fairly recent shift.

South West Surrey was one of the more marginal Surrey constituencies in 2019, along with neighbouring Guildford, so assuming their successor constituencies are Lib Dem target seats, I can see them changing hands. Hunt also was recently reported to have donated about £100k of his own money towards his local campaign for the General Election, which suggests he is both worried about his chances and struggling for local support:

Jeremy Hunt has given over £100,000 to local Tory party in bid to retain seat

Exclusive: Records show extent of chancellor’s donations since 2019 as polling suggests he is on course to lose at general election

www.theguardian.com

Jeremy Hunt has been forced to contribute more than £100,000 of his own money to his constituency Conservative party to bolster his chances of re-election, official records show, amid warnings that he is set to lose his seat.

Hunt’s Godalming and Ash constituency is a target seat for the Liberal Democrats, and a Survation poll projects that he is on course to become the first chancellor in modern times to lose at a general election.

Electoral Commission records show that he has given £105,261 to the South-west Surrey Conservative association over the last five years.

The chancellor’s personal donations to the association under the last three Conservative prime ministers stand in stark contrast to the total £4,447 he gifted under the leadership of Theresa May and David Cameron.

The most recent accounts for Hunt’s local association have warned that its “balance sheet is at a less than satisfactory level”. A note stated that members’ annual subscriptions were due to increase this year.

Donations to the chancellor’s association were down by almost 50% in 2021. South West Surrey received only £42,693 in donationsthat year, down from over £80,000 in 2020.

A Labour source said: “This tells you everything you need to know about the state of the Conservative party, with the chancellor seemingly spending more time dishing out personal cheques to prolong his political career than fixing the economy his government has wrecked.

“And on the same day the chancellor is talking about clamping down on money being wasted, he might want to look at how he is spending some of his own money.”

 

[Richard Scott]

Nope, you can't blame the opposition for the government"s mistakes. The government had a majority and it is wholly responsible for the actions that it took. That's not to say that they weren't influenced by others in the HoC, but ultimately the earned absolute power over the legislation timetable, so they accept responsibility for the consequences.

The government was actually proposing something its own back benchers were going against, as opposition they should have done the right thing and supported the government.

 

[takno]

The government was actually proposing something its own back benchers were going against, as opposition they should have done the right thing and supported the government.

The deal on the table was a dog's breakfast in it's own right. You can't expect the opposition to vote for something awful that they are opposed to. Demanding that they predict that the government will change leaders, then win an election, and then utterly self-defeatingly manage to cook up something even worse is a wild stretch.

 

[DoubleLemon]

I

The economic future probably needs a separate thread; but as someone who is about to hit state pension age I'm very worried that NI will eventually be scrapped as headlines suggest, replaced by a significant increase to income tax to make up the shortfall. That will drag pensioners into paying a lot more income tax, many like myself will have planned future expenses on income tax being around 20%, not suddenly having to find the extra when it's 30-35%. (Otherwise where does the money come from for public services?)

That is unless state pensioners are exempt from this add-on; or the threshold is significantly higher, but if not then how will many cope? A basic pension + couple of private ones + maybe some savings interest will put a pensioner into the £20-30k/yr bracket, having to find £800-£1700 more than anticipated.

Not many votes in that!!

I've been working in payroll (a software company) for 20 years. There's been talk about scrapping NI for 20 years and no one can come up with a way to deal with things like employers construction.
NI able earnings are also used as the basis of statutory calculations. While that's not a massive deal for most there are other NI table rates which this would have an impact.

It's not going to happen.

 

[nw1]

So why did they support Boris then?
It was obvious to me what would happen if they didn't support May's plans for Brexit and guess what, it did!
Labour messed up there, end of.

No, Labour wanted to soften Brexit and made a good go of trying to make that happen. And who can blame them?

If May had remained in power I suspect May and Labour would have struck a compromise. Customs union, for example.

It was wholly the fault, and the responsibility, of the ERG dinosaurs and their leader Boris.
The country has been steered in a certain direction thanks to the desires of a small and extreme group in Parliament. It is them, and no-one else, who have got their way.

 

[JamesT]

I've been working in payroll (a software company) for 20 years. There's been talk about scrapping NI for 20 years and no one can come up with a way to deal with things like employers construction.
NI able earnings are also used as the basis of statutory calculations. While that's not a massive deal for most there are other NI table rates which this would have an impact.

It's not going to happen.

Unfortunately the likely change of government will probably nix NI reform, but it is long overdue. It’s calculated weekly per employer, so those with fluctuating income or multiple jobs lose out compared to those earning the same overall steadily from one job. (Though conversely, if you have multiple jobs above the threshold you could get multiple sets of statutory sick pay or maternity pay).

Rolling it all up into one tax would simplify things for everyone. The employer contributions are essentially a payroll tax, they don’t relate to any benefits. So they don’t have to be calculated the same way, but could be a simple percentage of yearly pay.

As I understand it, benefits are generally linked to having been paid over the NI threshold for 26/50/52 weeks in a previous period. (Or having equivalent credits). So the obvious replacement would be to take the equivalent of that threshold on a yearly basis and use that.

No, Labour wanted to soften Brexit and made a good go of trying to make that happen. And who can blame them?

If May had remained in power I suspect May and Labour would have struck a compromise. Customs union, for example.

It was wholly the fault, and the responsibility, of the ERG dinosaurs and their leader Boris.
The country has been steered in a certain direction thanks to the desires of a small and extreme group in Parliament. It is them, and no-one else, who have got their way.

But May’s deal effectively was that soft Brexit. The Irish backstop would have kept the UK in the customs union until an ‘alternative arrangement’ was developed. Which would likely have been continually put off like the border controls in the actual agreement.
If that was actually what Labour wanted they could have voted for it instead of messing around. Governments getting legislation through with the assistance of the opposition is hardly unknown.

 

[Purple Train]

Nobody accused Largan specifically of being "ultra right wing" looking at the posts above though, to be fair.

True. But "ultra tribal" is still not something I'd expect from someone making speeches condemning "ideological puritanism"! (Given he mentioned his majority in the same speech, the cynic in me believes there is a link, but I would be interested to know if he's lived up to that billing much.)

 

[dosxuk]

If that was actually what Labour wanted they could have voted for it instead of messing around.

Labour was in as much of a mess about what it wanted as the Tories at that point.

 

[The Ham]

Whist not as apparent as some of the big announcements, or as politically juicy, following one local council candidate becoming an independent none of the district councils in Surrey have a Conservative majority.

I'm 2015 it was 10 out of 11 councils.

Surrey: Conservative Party loses control of last borough council in county - BBC News

Local elections will be held on 2 May at councils across Surrey.

www.bbc.co.uk

The political control at Reigate & Banstead could change soon, either following a council meeting at the end of March or the local elections at the beginning of May.
For example, at the elections, the Conservatives could make the gains they need to retake overall control. Or they could lose seats, altering the calculation again.
But it is worth taking a moment to mark the contrast in the Tories' fortunes.
As recently as 2015, the party had majorities on and ran 10 out of 11 of the borough or district councils in Surrey (Epsom & Ewell being the exception).
Now it is only Reigate & Banstead and Runnymede where they are still the main force.

 

[nw1]

Whist not as apparent as some of the big announcements, or as politically juicy, following one local council candidate becoming an independent none of the district councils in Surrey have a Conservative majority.

I'm 2015 it was 10 out of 11 councils.

The Tories of course have only themselves to blame here, in putting off affluent but socially-liberal Surrey residents.

 

[RT4038]

The Tories of course have only themselves to blame here, in putting off affluent but socially-liberal Surrey residents.

I think that the Tories are going to spend some time in opposition and will have to reinvent themselves , which they will. They are exhausted and have rather lost their way, battered by influences hither and thither. Much like Labour have had to do when influenced by extreme left wing people / groups in the past.

No party dealing with Brexit, the pandemic and the Ukraine war is going to come out smelling of roses: the turmoil within the party is indicative of that, let alone the electorate.

However, Brexit was achieved and there will be no easily going back on that. So to some, job done, but with an inevitable political price to pay. Perhaps only a fairly minor consideration at this point?

 

[jfollows]

As it is, I suspect Anderson will be off to Reform shortly

Reportedly today.

 

[Howardh]

I think that the Tories are going to spend some time in opposition and will have to reinvent themselves , which they will. They are exhausted and have rather lost their way, battered by influences hither and thither. Much like Labour have had to do when influenced by extreme left wing people / groups in the past.

No party dealing with Brexit, the pandemic and the Ukraine war is going to come out smelling of roses: the turmoil within the party is indicative of that, let alone the electorate.

However, Brexit was achieved and there will be no easily going back on that. So to some, job done, but with an inevitable political price to pay. Perhaps only a fairly minor consideration at this point?

Brexit = should have had a further referendum on staying in the single market which would probably have won and saved an awful lot of bother; especially if it had kept the decent Tories in power (eg Ken Clark etc)

Pandemic = love to say they did the best they could under trying and unprecedented circumstances, and they did get he vaccine out, but blew it on (a) wasting money on PPE from their pals, (b) kicking us all in the teeth especially those who couldn't attend funerals by partying behind our backs - never forgive them for that and (c) the stupidity of the tier system and the final lockdown went on way too long. Should have listened to those wanting short but severe and time-limited fire breakers in the autumn and spring.

Ukraine = Can't blame the Tories for that, but where was our own gas and oil and why didn't we have storage? North sea oil/gas should have been available to us Brits for cost price, bus sold on the world markets we, literally, had to pay the price.

 

[nw1]

Reportedly today.

The Tories are in real trouble if this happens.

The hard-right will switch to Reform in greater numbers with one of their standard-bearers defecting, but the Tories have (as stated above) not done anything to gain any more votes from the centre.

 

[birchesgreen]

Get your popcorn ready kids.

 

[Mojo]

Confirmed via live stream video on Reform UK Facebook page that Lee is now the Reform MP for Ashfield.

 

[Howardh]

The Tories are in real trouble if this happens.

The hard-right will switch to Reform in greater numbers with one of their standard-bearers defecting, but the Tories have (as stated above) not done anything to gain any more votes from the centre.

All it is is something like 33% of the voting public shifting their votes from Tory to reform and back again. Will any of the 44% that Labour are currently polling (on average) move? I doubt it.

Confirmed via live stream video on Reform UK Facebook page that Lee is now the Reform MP for Ashfield.

Time we had enforced by-elections when MP's change their party; unless they are "independent" to begin with.

 

[SteveM70]

Confirmed via live stream video on Reform UK Facebook page that Lee is now the Reform MP for Ashfield.

The same Lee Anderson who, three and a bit years ago, voted for a bill in Parliament that would require any MP changing party to be required to call a by-election

Changes his opinion as often as he changes parties

 

[Howardh]

The same Lee Anderson who, three and a bit years ago, voted for a bill in Parliament that would require any MP changing party to be required to call a by-election

Changes his opinion as often as he changes parties

Yes, as mentioned on the news. Is he just a chancer who flies with the wind? Hopefully Sunak will call that GE which would immediately dissolve parliament and six-bob Lee won't have time for his first subsidised pint.

 

[jfollows]

Is he just a chancer who flies with the wind?

I think Lee Anderson represents a certain type of voter, something like a former Labour voter who felt disenfranchised by Blair in particular, and in general by a collective metropolitan elite, Oxbridge set and all. So that's "my" grouping (the “metropolitan elite” that is) regardless of party affiliation, but it's vastly outnumbered by others, and the question seems to be - how many of them ally with Lee Anderson and his views?
I don't think it's ever enough, but their getting together will cause hurt, especially now to the Conservatives as has been mentioned above already.
They have a platform now until the next election, after which they'll retire to lick their wounds, but the Conservatives will be in denial and take a while to recover.

 

[RT4038]

Brexit = should have had a further referendum on staying in the single market which would probably have won and saved an awful lot of bother; especially if it had kept the decent Tories in power (eg Ken Clark etc)

Could have done, but I don't think that was ever on the agenda - leaving the single market (and more precisely cutting the strings that went with the single market) was always the goal of the Brexiteers within the Party. There was no real point in leaving otherwise. So, if you were going to do hard Brexit then you were always going to upset loads of people for a future election.

Pandemic = love to say they did the best they could under trying and unprecedented circumstances, and they did get he vaccine out, but blew it on (a) wasting money on PPE from their pals, (b) kicking us all in the teeth especially those who couldn't attend funerals by partying behind our backs - never forgive them for that and (c) the stupidity of the tier system and the final lockdown went on way too long. Should have listened to those wanting short but severe and time-limited fire breakers in the autumn and spring.

Yes, but whoever was in charge would have made mistakes (and potentially even worse mistakes). And individuals could have just not lied about things. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Hence why I say that whichever party was in charge at that point would get the ire later in the ballot box. The leader, who became leader by treachery, was rather hoisted by his own petard. But such is human nature.

Ukraine = Can't blame the Tories for that, but where was our own gas and oil and why didn't we have storage? North sea oil/gas should have been available to us Brits for cost price, bus sold on the world markets we, literally, had to pay the price.

Could have, but wouldn't have. Think this is a bit of a red herring - whatever had been done with all this hindsight someone would have criticised.

I am not for one moment suggesting that any failures or errors of judgement should be let go, but just pointing out the inevitability of unpopularity later.

 

[DC1989]

Regarding NI there shouldn't be any need of employers contributions anyway, it's a tax on jobs. Getting rid of NI is a great idea and one that I hope Labour continue with if they win the election

 

[uglymonkey]

HO can you be an MP and decide to change the party you represent? That's not democracy. You could get your self elected as a ( Tory,labour, green) etc and then say you have decided to be the elected member for the NASDP or the KKK? Doesn't make any sense and is wrong on all sorts of counts.

 

[Gloster]

I expect Anderson to keep sounding off with what he seems to regard as the opinions of the silent majority. It will be interesting to see if he ever says something that is too much even for Reform and they suspend him. (I am not holding my breath, but it is possible, particularly if there are legal fallouts.)

 

[uglymonkey]

How

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Yes, but whoever was in charge would have made mistakes (and potentially even worse mistakes). And individuals could have just not lied about things. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Hence why I say that whichever party was in charge at that point would get the ire later in the ballot box.

To some extent, yes, anyone would have made mistakes - particularly when big decisions had to be made with so little time. I'm still inclined to think all the PPE stuff falls into that category. But, the thing that really killed the Tories' popularity in the Covid aftermath was Partygate - and I'm not sure anyone would have done that. That seems to a large extent to have been a product of the informal, rules-don't-really-matter culture that existed when Boris was PM. So I can well believe that - say - if Keir Starmer had been PM during Covid and had (plausibly) been following all rules himself and making sure those around him also did so, Labour wouldn't have 'got the ire' to anything like the same extent. (Plus of course, no Liz Truss, but that doesn't have anything to do with Covid)

 

[jfollows]

The same Lee Anderson who, three and a bit years ago, voted for a bill in Parliament that would require any MP changing party to be required to call a by-election

Changes his opinion as often as he changes parties

Recall of MPs (Change of Party Affiliation)​

Wednesday 2 September 2020 (https://hansard.parliament.uk/commo...9C1FE8F/RecallOfMps(ChangeOfPartyAffiliation))

That leave be given to bring in a Bill to enable the recall of Members of the House of Commons who voluntarily change their political party affiliation; and for connected purposes.



This Bill seeks to update the Recall of MPs Act 2015 with a fourth recall condition: any MP who voluntarily leaves the political party they represented upon their election to the House of Commons becomes subject to a recall petition. Such a petition would occur by Mr Speaker giving notice to a petitions officer, who would in turn give notice to the parliamentary electors in the relevant constituency, after which a petition would be open for eight weeks. If at the end of that period at least 10% of the eligible electors had signed that petition, the seat would be declared vacant and a by-election would be held. It is important to note and understand that the petition acts as the safety mechanism to preventing a needless by-election; if our constituents view the action of crossing the Floor as principled and just, the threshold would not be met and the onerous task of holding a by-election would not be undertaken. But should the threshold be met, a by-election would be called and the Member who had been recalled would be able to stand.

Passed by 55 votes to 52, Lee Anderson being in favour..
The bill's second reading never happened (https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/2773#timeline).

 

[Thirteen]

The Tories are a spent party but that happens often if you're in power for a significant period.

 

[Typhoon]

Recall of MPs (Change of Party Affiliation)​

Wednesday 2 September 2020 (https://hansard.parliament.uk/commo...9C1FE8F/RecallOfMps(ChangeOfPartyAffiliation))

Passed by 55 votes to 52, Lee Anderson being in favour..
The bill's second reading never happened (https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/2773#timeline).

He might willingly do so in the same way that Carswell and Reckless did when defecting to UKIP. However, they had a distinct agenda that chimed with voters, the Reform agenda is rather vaguer. It would certainly be a risky strategy - a victory would confirm that Reform is on the up-and-up, a defeat would leave them with the same number of MPs as the Monster Raving Loonies.

A more interesting question is how Reform can cope with the egos of Anderson, Farage and Tice. After all, Carswell left UKIP as he was unable to see eye-to-eye with Farage!!
(And will anyone else jump ship?)

 

[uglymonkey]

How much of the trouble the Tory's are in ( Not only them you can see it in Trump v Biden) is down to the ever increasing use of social media ( and its polarization and fragmentation) , where everyones opinion is equally valid ? Rather than a core set of beliefs , everything ( However mad cap) is considered in the pursuit of votes.