brad465
Established Member
Godalming and Ash? Will be somewhat difficult for Hunt to lose that I suspect. If it was a seat further in, like Esher and Walton, then I'd say yes but that far out, in a rural and very affluent area, I'm not so sure.
A lot of predictions are suggesting that, though I get the impression that Mordaunt is someone with quite a big local following, and there was of course her part in the Coronation. I rather suspect she will buck the trend.
On the other hand I suspect Portsmouth South will have a huge Labour majority.
South West Surrey was one of the more marginal Surrey constituencies in 2019, along with neighbouring Guildford, so assuming their successor constituencies are Lib Dem target seats, I can see them changing hands. Hunt also was recently reported to have donated about £100k of his own money towards his local campaign for the General Election, which suggests he is both worried about his chances and struggling for local support:There's bits of Ash which aren't that affluent.
Also according to the district council's lists Godalming as quite a mixed bag, but quite a strong Lib Dem and Labour presence:
With the County Council Councillors for Godalming being Lib Dems:
Your Councillors - Surrey County Council
mycouncil.surreycc.gov.uk
Obviously past election results don't mean that the Tories are going to lose, however it does indicate that it's not as True Blue as many would expect - although I do think that's a fairly recent shift.
Jeremy Hunt has given over £100,000 to local Tory party in bid to retain seat
Exclusive: Records show extent of chancellor’s donations since 2019 as polling suggests he is on course to lose at general election
www.theguardian.com
Jeremy Hunt has been forced to contribute more than £100,000 of his own money to his constituency Conservative party to bolster his chances of re-election, official records show, amid warnings that he is set to lose his seat.
Hunt’s Godalming and Ash constituency is a target seat for the Liberal Democrats, and a Survation poll projects that he is on course to become the first chancellor in modern times to lose at a general election.
Electoral Commission records show that he has given £105,261 to the South-west Surrey Conservative association over the last five years.
The chancellor’s personal donations to the association under the last three Conservative prime ministers stand in stark contrast to the total £4,447 he gifted under the leadership of Theresa May and David Cameron.
The most recent accounts for Hunt’s local association have warned that its “balance sheet is at a less than satisfactory level”. A note stated that members’ annual subscriptions were due to increase this year.
Donations to the chancellor’s association were down by almost 50% in 2021. South West Surrey received only £42,693 in donationsthat year, down from over £80,000 in 2020.
A Labour source said: “This tells you everything you need to know about the state of the Conservative party, with the chancellor seemingly spending more time dishing out personal cheques to prolong his political career than fixing the economy his government has wrecked.
“And on the same day the chancellor is talking about clamping down on money being wasted, he might want to look at how he is spending some of his own money.”