Russia invades Ukraine

[adc82140]

I've been looking up the range of the S-300. I *think* in order to strike that part of Poland it would have had to be launched from Belarus.

 

[Busaholic]

Yes, earlier in the thread.



Ukraine have violated it several times. Crimea is 'indisputably' Russia according to them. It's bluster for domestic consumption.

I'm not including Crimea. I'm including the land within Russia that everybody agrees 'belongs' to them: this is what Putin was undoubtedly referring to when threatening nuclear retaliation if it was breached. People are still unprepared to take his threats seriously: we'll only learn when it's far too late, I guess. Dangerous maniacs have to be taken seriously, whether their name is Putin or Trump.

 

[adc82140]

The Belgorod region of Russia has been shelled by Ukraine numerous times.

 

[Peterthegreat]

I've been looking up the range of the S-300. I *think* in order to strike that part of Poland it would have had to be launched from Belarus.

Or Ukraine

 

[Trackman]

I've just been on the daily mail website for a laugh.. 'Putin bombs Poland' or something like that.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I've just been on the daily mail website for a laugh.. 'Putin bombs Poland' or something like that.

That rag is an inflammatory disgrace.

 

[Peterthegreat]

That rag is an inflammatory disgrace.

Agreed.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Having finally had a chance to sit down and look at this properly, it wasn't launched from Belarus, it's too far away. It's much more likely to have been an S-300 launched to intercept a missile fired from Belarus.

 

[adc82140]

The general consensus in the media and western governments is that it's a cock up by someone with tragic consequences, for which Russia ultimately bears moral responsibility. Except Sky News' Dominic Waghorn who is certain that it was deliberate. I think he may be attention seeking.

 

[brad465]

I've just been on the daily mail website for a laugh.. 'Putin bombs Poland' or something like that.

That rag is an inflammatory disgrace.

Most of the front pages tomorrow are disgraceful, and if it turns out it was not a Russian attack, some of them would have to correct their record.

 

[Howardh]

Russia have got to say this was an error, a mistake, even if they don't apologise. And stop bombing the capital.

 

[Busaholic]

Russia have got to say this was an error, a mistake, even if they don't apologise. And stop bombing the capital.

Instead, they imply the Ukrainians were responsible, a typical Russian ploy.

 

[DustyBin]

Instead, they imply the Ukrainians were responsible, a typical Russian ploy.

They may have been; we don’t know yet. Although I should point out that the only reason Ukraine is being forced to fire missiles in the first place is because they’re under attack from Russia.

 

[DanNCL]

I've been looking up the range of the S-300. I *think* in order to strike that part of Poland it would have had to be launched from Belarus.

Or Ukraine

Belarus if launched by Russia. No Russian occupied part of Ukraine is within range, nor is Kaliningrad or mainland Russia, and in the case of the former any missile would almost certainly have been intercepted much earlier in Polish airspace regardless.

 

[philosopher]

Russia have got to say this was an error, a mistake, even if they don't apologise. And stop bombing the capital.

The current Russian government has a tendency to blame anyone except themselves when they make a mistake, so I can’t see this happening. The shooting down of the Malaysian airliner over Ukraine in 2014 is prime example of this.

 

[Howardh]

The current Russian government has a tendency to blame anyone except themselves when they make a mistake, so I can’t see this happening. The shooting down of the Malaysian airliner over Ukraine in 2014 is prime example of this.

NATO has to do something or it will look weak, yet on the other hand any escalation is unthinkable. I'm going to bed tonight and I doubt I'll get any sleep.

 

[Busaholic]

NATO has to do something or it will look weak, yet on the other hand any escalation is unthinkable. I'm going to bed tonight and I doubt I'll get any sleep.

It's certainly a worrying situation, but speaking as an imsoniac, it's not great to worry about all the things we can do nothing about.

 

[adc82140]

I'll get a good night's sleep knowing that cool heads are prevailing and that Donald Trump is not the president.

 

[DarloRich]

The tone of the reporting has changed slightly: a russian MADE rocket is the terminology at present. (Both sides use russia made rockets!)

Perhaps that indicates a ukranian missile gone wild.

EDIT: I suspect there will be a NATO ministers meeting in the morning, perhaps an official article 4 consultation meeting, followed by official word on what took place.

 

[Ediswan]

The tone of the reporting has changed slightly: a russian MADE rocket is the terminology at present. (Both sides use russia made rockets!)

Perhaps that indicates a ukranian missile gone wild.

BBC (Newsnight ?) reported a "usually reliable source" identifying the remains of a rocket motor as one only used by Ukraine. They did name the source, but my memory is not that good.

 

[Annetts key]

BBC (Newsnight ?) reported a "usually reliable source" identifying the remains of a rocket motor as one only used by Ukraine. They did name the source, but my memory is not that good.

So far we have, depending on who you choose to believe:
The missile being

• A missile used by Ukraine for air defence,
• A Russian missile.

Some ‘experts’ say the bit that there is a photo of looks like a S300, while others say it looks like a Kalibr.

 

[Howardh]

Just hope it is a rogue Ukrainian defensive missile.

 

[brad465]

If as suspected this was just a Ukraine-fired missile that crashed there by accident, then if it's possible for Russian bots to get e****ions, they will be off the charts.

 

[AlterEgo]

It's in essence a kind of propaganda war - wear the Ukrainian people down so much they pressure the army to surrender.

This seems to have had no effect so far. Putin has very much underestimated the strength of revulsion Ukrainians have for Russia.

Don’t forget the long history of Russian cyber attacks too.

Those don’t seem to have been a major factor in this war. Has their capability been eroded?

 

[Russel]

I'll be honest, I heard about this on the 8pm news on the radio at work and I did have a lump in my throat.

But after putting things into perspective, I'm not convicted it's worth loosing sleep over.

NATO Will make a statement declaring it unacceptable etc, etc, but that'll be it. Let's be honest, the Russians shot down MH17 and nothing was done.

That's it, sent NATO in! Finish them off!

Yes, let's start WW3 and end civilisation as we know it.

 

[Annetts key]

Yes, let's start WW3 and end civilisation as we know it.

Even if N.A.T.O. took action, and even if it involved wiping out Russian forces in the illegally occupied areas of Ukraine, it’s extremely unlikely that it would start WW3 or end civilisation as we know it.

Firstly, because if the previous Russian retreats looked rapid, Russian forces would set a new record at how fast they could flee back to Russia. If they are withdrawing under pressure from Ukrainian forces, there is very little chance they are going to try to hold out against N.A.T.O. forces.

And secondly, because N.A.T.O. forces will not attack Russian territory (other than maybe self defence against S.A.M. systems), hence not threatening “mother’ Russia. So not passing the threshold for Russia to justify using Nuclear weapons. And Russia knows full well what would happen if they tried to attempt to use Nuclear weapons.

However, I think even if N.A.T.O. article 5 is triggered, N.A.T.O. will not go for the option of wiping out Russian forces in the illegally occupied areas of Ukraine, but instead would decide on a more measured action. With a very stern warning to Russia.

I personally like the option of N.A.T.O. using missiles to sink the elements of the Russian Black Sea fleet that are capable of launching missiles.

 

[adc82140]

According to the BBC reliable sources are saying that it was a Ukrainian surface to air missile. Whilst I'm relieved, the Russian propaganda machine is going to have a field day over last night's reporting, and Poland asking for Article 4 consultations.

 

[birchesgreen]

That's it, sent NATO in! Finish them off!

Nuclear combat toe to toe with the Ruskies?

 

[Bantamzen]

The concerning thing for me is that if this is a result of a defensive system in Ukraine, then Russian attacks are flying very close to NATO borders. This sort of thing could happen again and in this sort of situation could easily escalate. NATO for now are holding back & assessing it, which is the right thing to do. But tensions are high and rising, and as anyone who remembers the Cold War years this can lead to a lot of nervousness & risks itchy trigger fingers on all sides.

 

[adc82140]

The concerning thing for me is that if this is a result of a defensive system in Ukraine, then Russian attacks are flying very close to NATO borders. This sort of thing could happen again and in this sort of situation could easily escalate. NATO for now are holding back & assessing it, which is the right thing to do. But tensions are high and rising, and as anyone who remembers the Cold War years this can lead to a lot of nervousness & risks itchy trigger fingers on all sides.

The Russians are nasty, but they are not suicidal. The attacks close to the border thus far have been from their limited stocks of precision munitions, fired from bombers over undisputed Russian territory or from ships in the Black Sea. They seem to be using the dumb bombs more in the east.