Indeed not. Though, if there's anything to the rumours, then it's significant that Putin is even considering a ceasefire. As we all know, "on one condition" can often be a way of stating the starting point for negotiations.
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Russia invades Ukraine
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It’s not an offer made in good faith anyway. Stories like this are released every now and then so Russia can point and say “Look, it’s the West who doesn’t want peace, they’re the aggressors” even when it’s no peace at all that’s being offered.
See also the much-discussed negotiations near the start of the war, what was on the table was basically a surrender agreement, something Ukraine could not accept and that no western country could act as guarantor for. Yet we hear constantly from assorted idiots how NATO/the West scuppered these talks and carry responsibility for the bloodshed, not the invading army.
dosbod stuey
On Moderation
I doubt it. Russia have got what they want in terms of a land bridge and defensible territory.
It's only the so-called West that want a forever war of attrition.
Falcon1200
Established Member
What absolute rubbish; What the so-called West, and hopefully most other parts of the world, want is for Russia to act like a civilised nation and not invade and destroy its neighbours on spurious pretexts. If any part of the territory Russia has seized is ceded to them, their murderous activities have, in their eyes, been justified.
dosbod stuey
On Moderation
The west goaded Russia into it by pushing NATO on to its borders.
We wouldn't accept the same.
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Or perhaps the aggressive actions of Russia pushed its neighbours to join a defensive alliance?
Falcon1200
Established Member
This is getting silly. How did the west goad Russia, exactly? When, at any time post WW2, has the West, NATO, the USA or anyone else shown any aggressive intent, or desire or preparation to invade, towards the USSR or Russia?
Except that we absolutely did, for decades when the USSR controlled huge swathes of Central Europe, right to the borders of Western European countries. We did not use that as a pretext to reclaim, for example, East Germany.
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dosbod stuey
On Moderation
By pushing NATO borders up to its.
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Did NATO force these countries to join?
dangie
Established Member
I’m sure that Zelensky is also thinking about the number of the Ukraine population who have lost their lives and are likely to do so in the future without some form of ceasefire. I’m also sure that Putin doesn’t entertain those thoughts concerning his own population. Without some form of compromise I can’t see this conflict ending anytime soon.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
We had a very similar discussion with someone else a few pages back on this thread.
To summarise the point I made then, NATO expansion was an inevitable consequence of the desire of most of the populations of eastern Europe to break away from Russian/Soviet domination and embrace Western values. Rather than engage as an equal with their neighbours, Russia started moving towards restoring that domination, and unsurprisingly those other countries wanted to safeguard themselves. The alternative would be to expect that the democracy and freedom that blossomed in the 1990s could just be rolled back into subjugation, leading to a reversion to the Cold War or worse.
Falcon1200
Established Member
I repeat; When, at any time since its formation, has NATO, or any member country, exhibited aggressive intent towards the USSR, the countries under the hegemony of the USSR, or Russia, such that the USSR or Russia genuinely feared they were about to be invaded by NATO? Please answer, politely.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
To be fair, exercise Able Archer may have given that impression. But that was over 40 years ago.
Only because the Soviet leadership had managed to convince themselves that the USA/NATO were definitely preparing to attack and went looking for evidence to confirm their conclusion. Able Archer 83 was a long-planned annual exercise, with no significant difference from previous years.
Killingworth
Established Member
The difficulty is that we see it with western eyes and those living in Moscow and St Petersburg don't. The idea of warm water ports means little to us but a great deal to Russians. There's a deep seated feeling of siege in their psyche - most particularly in that son of Leningrad, Vladimir Putin.
Trump wants to make America great again. Putin wants the same for Russia. Here in the UK and in France we're still finding it hard to live with the loss of empires. Putin saw the collapse of the USSR and his final straw seems to have been Ukraine. The 2014 Maidan Revolution was the trigger for what has happened since.
The difficulty now is the attrition element and the sizes of Ukraine and Russia. Plus democracy in Ukraine. For how long can Ukraine accept more deaths and material destruction without significant teritorial gains? On the other side Putin is learning from early set backs like Stalin did 80 years ago.
Earlier we were told Putin was near death and according to the Daily Express was humiliated almost every day. Putin can draw on Russian nostalgic pride in their underdog success in the Great Patriotic War of 1941-5. He's beginning to see this conflict in a simliar way.
It's hard to see any permanent border that could be accepted by both sides so the conflict will go on. A ceasefire line will be difficult to agree but must come eventually. The fear must be that the weight of Russian numbers can outlast the willingness of young Ukrainians to fight and our ability to supply arms.
Trump may be a factor in this!
Belperpete
Established Member
- Joined
- 17 Aug 2018
- Messages
- 1,784
And just for context, when has the opposite ever applied, when has any NATO country been under any real danger of being invaded by the USSR or Russia?
As far as I can recall, all the conflicts have taken place in third party countries.
You've hit the nail on the head there. Putin's most important support (to date) comes from the well-heeled residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg - but very few of their children have come home in body bags (or not come back at all!) His support among the populace of the hinterland is dropping and it's only a matter of time before the elites make the calculation that that lack of popular support among the commoners makes him more of an impediment to their continued enjoyment of a privileged lifestyle than an asset.
After all, it's not like Russians don't have form for putting the bourgeoisie's backs against the wall.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
That explains why all those countries wanted to join NATO.
REVUpminster
Member
Countries don't attack each other unless one country has something the other wants. Putin wants whatever Ukraine has, food, nuclear power etc. He set about it by invading Russian speaking parts of Ukraine just as Hitler did with Austria and the Sudetenland before going into Romania for the oil.
That was the basis of the British, Spanish, French, Dutch, and Portuguese empires
That was the basis of the British, Spanish, French, Dutch, and Portuguese empires
Falcon1200
Established Member
Thanks to NATO, probably never! Though that did not stop the USSR asserting control over supposedly independent Central European countries and brutally repressing attempts at uprising. Plus NATO has not used an imagined threat from the USSR, or Russia, to justify an invasion.
They predate the formation of NATO, but I'd suggest some of the events of the late 1940s highlight why NATO was seen as an important defensive alliance. I'm thinking of UK/US involvement in the Greek Civil War, and the Berlin Airlift. Not directly in Europe, but the UN (because Russia was boycotting the UN at the time) intervention in Korea was quite an important marker.
coppercapped
Established Member
In this context Winston Churchill's 1946 speech at Fulton, Missouri, is very relevant: “From Stettin in the Baltic, to Trieste in the Adriatic, an ‘iron curtain’ has descended across the continent...”
The speech is available on Youtube at
Added in edit: A more complete version of this speech showing the enormity of the change may be found, also on Youtube, at
NATO was founded three years later.
In the intervening 78 years since Churchill's speech I note that little has changed in Russia's attitude.
The speech is available on Youtube at
Added in edit: A more complete version of this speech showing the enormity of the change may be found, also on Youtube, at
NATO was founded three years later.
In the intervening 78 years since Churchill's speech I note that little has changed in Russia's attitude.
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brad465
Established Member
Took long enough:
Ukraine allowed to hit some targets in Russia with US weapons - reports
The US give Ukraine permission to use US-supplied weapons to strike targets in Russia, but only near the Kharkiv region, US media report.
www.bbc.co.uk
I'd be more surprised anyone believes they weren't being used for that purpose already.
Commander 1: "They're preparing an attack, dozens might die"
Commander 2: "Destroy the target before they launch"
Commander 3: "Wait, check where it was made....."
Commander 1: "They're preparing an attack, dozens might die"
Commander 2: "Destroy the target before they launch"
Commander 3: "Wait, check where it was made....."
Yes, it's almost certainly been happening on the quiet since the US weapons arrived in Ukraine.
gingerheid
Established Member
- Joined
- 2 Apr 2006
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- 1,511
I doubt it - the relative lack of attacks on targets in Russia and lack of sophistication of those that happen suggest it hasn't been!
France is to provide Ukraine with Dassault Mirage 2000-5 fighter aircraft, no amount has been specified.
www.france24.com
Macron to supply Ukraine with Mirage 2000-5 warplanes and train pilots and troops in France
France will transfer Mirage-2000 fighter jets to Ukraine and train their Ukrainian pilots as part of a new military cooperation with Kyiv as it fights the Russian invasion, President Emmanuel Macron…
www.france24.com
Macron to supply Ukraine with Mirage 2000-5 warplanes and train pilots and troops in France
France will transfer Mirage-2000 fighter jets to Ukraine and train their Ukrainian pilots as part of a new military cooperation with Kyiv as it fights the Russian invasion, President Emmanuel Macron announced on Thursday.
Issued on: 06/06/2024 - 20:29
2 min
French President Emmanuel Macron during a TV interview from Caen, northwestern France, on June 6, 2024. © Sebastien Bozon, AFP
By:NEWS WIRES
“Tomorrow we will launch a new cooperation and announce the transfer of Mirage 2000-5” fighter jets to Ukraine made by French manufacturer Dassault and train their Ukrainian pilots in France, Macron told French TV.
Macron said he would offer Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky when the two meet for talks at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Friday that the pilots be trained from this summer.
“You need normally between five-six months. So by the end of the year there will be pilots. The pilots will be trained in France,” he said.
He did not specify how many of the fighter jets would be delivered. Contacted by AFP, the defence ministry did not elaborate.
Macron said Ukraine was facing a “huge challenge” training soldiers as it sought to mobilise tens of thousands more troops to go to the front.
He said France would equip and train an entire brigade of 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers so they can defend themselves when they return to Ukraine from training.
Kyiv has been pushing Europe to increase its military support, with Russia in recent months gaining the upper hand on the battlefield.
Zelensky’s visit to France, where on Thursday he attended ceremonies for the 80th anniversary of D-Day and crossed paths with US President Joe Biden, is seen as a crucial time to drum up more help.
Macron said Ukraine has asked its Western allies to send military instructors to train its forces on its soil to meet the growing challenge to build up troop numbers.
“The Ukrainian president and his minister of defence asked all the allies -- 48 hours ago in an official letter—saying ‘we need you to train us quicker and that you do this on our soil’,” Macron said.
There had been speculation that Macron could swiftly announce the sending of French instructors to Ukraine, even after his talks with Zelensky on Friday.
But he said France and its allies would come together and decide and also emphasised that he did not believe any such moves by Paris were “escalatory”.
“We are working with our partners and we will act on the basis of a collective decision,” he said.
(AFP)
Pete_uk
Established Member
There's a good chance they may appear in the sky before the F16s