Russia invades Ukraine

[edwin_m]

The minerals deal looks like moderately good news for Ukraine, being reported as more favourable to them then first expected. There may of course be several devils in the detail.

Seven takeaways from Ukraine minerals deal

What this will and won't change for US assistance to Ukraine, three years into the war.

www.bbc.co.uk

No Ukrainian payback to US​

Tougher tone from US towards Putin​

Oil and gas included alongside minerals​

No hindrance to Kyiv's EU ambitions​

Profits to be reinvested in Ukraine for 10 years​

A US military commitment back on table...​

...but US can still walk away any time​

 

[Killingworth]

Oil has fallen below $60 a barrel. If this is sustained Russian finances will be in real trouble (they already have been since it fell below 70, which is close to what they budgeted for):

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www.marketwatch.com

View attachment 179254

3 years ago it was over $110 so that has a profound effect on all producers and consumers.

Trump's 'drill, baby, drill' rhetoric is fine - to a point. All producers will be finding the slump challenging. It's rather easier for consumers to seek out bargains. Prices at pumps may or may not benefit from forward contracts. One thing is certain, market traders will be making (and some probably losing) large sums on market swings.

The slump doesn't help us to develop and pump expensive oil and gas from British fields.

 

[35B]

3 years ago it was over $110 so that has a profound effect on all producers and consumers.

Trump's 'drill, baby, drill' rhetoric is fine - to a point. All producers will be finding the slump challenging. It's rather easier for consumers to seek out bargains. Prices at pumps may or may not benefit from forward contracts. One thing is certain, market traders will be making (and some probably losing) large sums on market swings.

The slump doesn't help us to develop and pump expensive oil and gas from British fields.

Not to mention that oil prices are a function of supply and demand. If more oil is produced, then prices will fall.

 

[Annetts key]

Not to mention that oil prices are a function of supply and demand. If more oil is produced, then prices will fall.

And with Trumps tariffs upsetting world trade, oil is perceived to be less in demand, and going on the economic figures from the U.S.A., actual demand is very likely to fall.

And I believe the U.S.A. was/is producing near record or record amounts of oil anyway, even before Trump came to power.

 

[Giugiaro]

Not to mention that oil prices are a function of supply and demand. If more oil is produced, then prices will fall.

Some forms of oil and gas extraction are considerably more expensive, and require high oil prices to break even.

The easy oil is pretty much gone. More than half of US oil and gas is extracted through fracking, which is one of the most expensive technics.

Trump's "Drill Baby, Drill" if taken to the extreme will actually break the current US oil industry.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Trump's "Drill Baby, Drill" if taken to the extreme will actually break the current US oil industry.

The problem is that "Drill Baby, Drill" only works if you have the labour. One figure suggests that around 20% of workers in the US oil industry are immigrants.

The minerals deal looks like moderately good news for Ukraine, being reported as more favourable to them then first expected. There may of course be several devils in the detail.

It's actually a pretty good deal, all things considered. I'd also consider something else: a lot of valuable minerals are in occupied territory. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if there are some back channel discussions along the lines of "We'll give you all the minerals from occupied territory if you give us the firepower needed to get them" as well. I'm not sure that Trump would agree to it, but this would be a good deal for Ukraine as they have no prospect of getting anything from those deposits anyway.

 

[edwin_m]

It's actually a pretty good deal, all things considered.

I didn't want to say that because I find it hard to believe it actually looks as good for Ukraine as it is described. As far as I know we haven't seen the actual signed text yet.

 

[Pete_uk]

The US is supplying stored F16s for 'spare parts'

It's been quite a few nights in Crimea. Lots of 'incidents' at airfields etc.

 

[Howardh]

If Ukraine decides to target the Russian May Day military parade, then it wouldn't surprise me if Russia declared war on Ukrai.....oh, hang on...

 

[Ivor]

If Ukraine decides to target the Russian May Day military parade, then it wouldn't surprise me if Russia declared war on Ukrai.....oh, hang on...

Poor old Vlad wants a quiet day to show the world what an amazing super power he has built. I’m surprised ‘The Orange One’ won’t be there, perhaps he will? Oh no that’ll be FAKE NEWS!

I for one am cheesed off putting it politely that Ukraine are always expected to make concessions whilst they have their men, women & children ‘murdered’ daily.

 

[brad465]

Poor old Vlad wants a quiet day to show the world what an amazing super power he has built. I’m surprised ‘The Orange One’ won’t be there, perhaps he will? Oh no that’ll be FAKE NEWS!

I for one am cheesed off putting it politely that Ukraine are always expected to make concessions whilst they have their men, women & children ‘murdered’ daily.

There have been stories of some figures/leaders planning to attend the parade pulling out or "falling ill" in the run up. Vuvic is chief amongst them, although Robert Fico is cancelling visits ahead of the parade as well:

Serbian president out of hospital after cutting short US trip

Serbia's President Aleksandar Vucic was briefly hospitalised on Saturday in Belgrade after cutting short a visit to the United States, with a doctor saying he is in "stable" condition.

www.france24.com

The announcement also casts doubt over Vucic's promised visit to Serbia's traditional ally Russia for celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe on May 9.

Vucic said on Thursday he would keep his word to Russian President Vladimir Putin and join around 20 world leaders travelling to Moscow for the occasion, commemorated with great pomp and an army parade on Red Square.

 

[Howardh]

Poor old Vlad wants a quiet day to show the world what an amazing super power he has built. I’m surprised ‘The Orange One’ won’t be there, perhaps he will? Oh no that’ll be FAKE NEWS!

I for one am cheesed off putting it politely that Ukraine are always expected to make concessions whilst they have their men, women & children ‘murdered’ daily.

To be honest I very much doubt the parade would be a target. But maybe while it's going on, other military targets could be hit?

 

[edwin_m]

To be honest I very much doubt the parade would be a target. But maybe while it's going on, other military targets could be hit?

I don't think the optics of any hit would be good, on a day commemorating the loss of 27 million Soviet citizens. That's even though it's framed more as a triumph, and even though Stalin was a big enabler of WW2 by entering a cynical pact with Hitler.

 

[Howardh]

I don't think the optics of any hit would be good, on a day commemorating the loss of 27 million Soviet citizens. That's even though it's framed more as a triumph, and even though Stalin was a big enabler of WW2 by entering a cynical pact with Hitler.

The worry also is the retaliation. Could be far worse than anything we've seen so far? So any thoughts of hitting the parade must be countered with what happens next? Be nice though for invited leaders to feel that it's too risky and drop out!

 

[brad465]

The worry also is the retaliation. Could be far worse than anything we've seen so far? So any thoughts of hitting the parade must be countered with what happens next? Be nice though for invited leaders to feel that it's too risky and drop out!

If was Ukraine I'd pound many Russian targets about 2 days before the parade. This both weakens them and casts a huge shadow of doubt over the parade attendees, while not actually directly impacting the parade or targeting anyone at it itself.

 

[Annetts key]

If was Ukraine I'd pound many Russian targets about 2 days before the parade. This both weakens them and casts a huge shadow of doubt over the parade attendees, while not actually directly impacting the parade or targeting anyone at it itself.

Especially if they target and destroy or damage a lot more of Russia’s air defence systems... Ideally including some in the Moscow area. Or if that's not practical, military air bases near Moscow.

 

[Ivor]

To be honest I very much doubt the parade would be a target. But maybe while it's going on, other military targets could be hit?

If was Ukraine I'd pound many Russian targets about 2 days before the parade. This both weakens them and casts a huge shadow of doubt over the parade attendees, while not actually directly impacting the parade or targeting anyone at it itself.

Both good shouts

 

[brad465]

If was Ukraine I'd pound many Russian targets about 2 days before the parade. This both weakens them and casts a huge shadow of doubt over the parade attendees, while not actually directly impacting the parade or targeting anyone at it itself.

Think they might have taken my advice:

Russia carries out deadly attacks in Sumy and Odesa as Ukraine launches drones at Moscow - latest

The attacks on Moscow come days before a Putin-announced three-day ceasefire, and a major parade in the Russian capital.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine attacks close Moscow airports, days before ceasefire due
​

Russia says Ukraine has launched an overnight drone attack on Moscow for the second night in a row.

Airports across the capital were closed for several hours, but have since reopened. Ukraine has not yet commented on the attacks. No causalities were reported.

The Ukrainian attacks come days before a temporary ceasefire that Russia announced earlier this week, which is set to run from 8 May until 11 May.

The ceasefire coincides with Victory Day parades in Russia - with major events in Moscow on Friday - which mark the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in 1945.

Meanwhile, Russian attacks on Ukraine continue, with at least one killed in Odesa, and strikes on Kharkiv also reported.

Our teams in London, Moscow, and Ukraine will bring you the latest news and analysis from across the region.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Think they might have taken my advice:

It's interesting to see that Russia still hasn't found a meaningful way to combat these drones. They've had three years to build up very strong air defences to stop anything getting out of Ukraine in that direction, and while Russia has obviously quite good defences around Moscow, they're still letting drones come far too close for comfort.

Having said this, I suspect that this is just Ukrainian psyops designed to deter anyone from attending the parade. They don't need to hit anything, it's enough to just send some drones with the intention of scaring.

 

[edwin_m]

Drones will be a key part of any future combat, and Ukraine is the world expert in employing them as well as apparently producing many themselves. Certain world leaders need to be aware of that when considering a hypothetical war against a major drone manufacturer in the Far East. Any treaty that keeps Ukraine out of Nato also makes it less easy for them to help in countering any other Russian incursions.

 

[brad465]

@Cloud Strife your original post on the subject is in a now locked thread, so can't quote directly, but I saw this post and recalled you talking about Orban potentially invading part of Ukraine in a desperate attempt to cling onto power:

https://x.com/StratcomCentre/status/1920745692538044654

SBU Uncovers Hungarian Military Intelligence Network in Western Ukraine On May 9, 2025, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced the exposure of a Hungarian military intelligence network operating in Zakarpattia Oblast.

This marks the first time in Ukraine’s history that the SBU has publicly revealed espionage activities linked to Hungary. According to the SBU’s official statement, the network was gathering intelligence on Zakarpattia’s military security. Its tasks included identifying vulnerabilities in the region’s ground and air defense systems and studying the socio-political views of local residents, particularly their potential reaction to the entry of Hungarian troops into the area. The SBU operation, conducted in the city of Berehove, resulted in the detention of two agents. During searches, authorities seized encrypted communication devices, maps of military facilities, and documents confirming the agents’ activities. The operation was carried out under the supervision of the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine.

One of the detainees is a 40-year-old man from the Berehove district, recruited by Hungarian intelligence in 2021. He was activated in September 2024 to assess civilian and military reactions to a possible deployment of Hungarian “peacekeeping” forces, monitor arms trafficking, and track Ukrainian troop movements. He traveled to Hungary using forged medical documents, where he received cash and secure communication tools.

The second detainee, a former Ukrainian military servicewoman, provided information on aircraft, helicopters, and military infrastructure in the region. The SBU confirmed that the network was managed by a Hungarian military intelligence officer whose identity has been established. Efforts are ongoing to identify other members of the network. The detainees have been charged with high treason under martial law (Article 111-2 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine). They face life imprisonment with confiscation of property. This incident highlights ongoing attempts to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty. The SBU urges citizens to remain vigilant and report any suspicious activities that may threaten national security.

 

[Cloud Strife]

@Cloud Strife your original post on the subject is in a now locked thread, so can't quote directly, but I saw this post and recalled you talking about Orban potentially invading part of Ukraine in a desperate attempt to cling onto power:

I think it's very much on the cards if Orban looks like he's going to lose the next election. Peter Magyar is outsmarting and outworking Orban, and he's seemingly on a quest to visit every single Hungarian village. Fidesz are trailing in the polls, and it seems that Magyar's policy of winning on the streets is paying off handsomely against the Fidesz apparatus.

This is why I wouldn't be shocked to see Orban at least try and order some kind of invasion of Western Ukraine to seize the overwhelmingly ethnic Hungarian areas next to the border. He would portray it as "righting a historical wrong", and it would give him an excuse to call a state of emergency in order to delay the elections. Framed as an attack on Ukraine on Hungary, he could get away with it as well.

At the same time, I'm not certain that Ukraine wouldn't be ready for him (and Fico). The borders are guarded and defended, and I suspect that the more powerful NATO members would tip off Kyiv if they detected any movement in Hungarian forces. Having said this, I wouldn't be surprised if there are a lot more spies in the border Hungarian areas in Ukraine, because this is exactly what I'd expect Orban to do.

 

[brad465]

I think it's very much on the cards if Orban looks like he's going to lose the next election. Peter Magyar is outsmarting and outworking Orban, and he's seemingly on a quest to visit every single Hungarian village. Fidesz are trailing in the polls, and it seems that Magyar's policy of winning on the streets is paying off handsomely against the Fidesz apparatus.

This is why I wouldn't be shocked to see Orban at least try and order some kind of invasion of Western Ukraine to seize the overwhelmingly ethnic Hungarian areas next to the border. He would portray it as "righting a historical wrong", and it would give him an excuse to call a state of emergency in order to delay the elections. Framed as an attack on Ukraine on Hungary, he could get away with it as well.

At the same time, I'm not certain that Ukraine wouldn't be ready for him (and Fico). The borders are guarded and defended, and I suspect that the more powerful NATO members would tip off Kyiv if they detected any movement in Hungarian forces. Having said this, I wouldn't be surprised if there are a lot more spies in the border Hungarian areas in Ukraine, because this is exactly what I'd expect Orban to do.

While I hope this doesn't happen, part of me hopes that if it did it would shatter any image that Orban is someone a promoter of peace and a role model for the far-right being sensible. However the deep level of tribalism means even this isn't guaranteed.

If Ukraine are alert though, and this news suggests they are, then I don't see it going well for Hungary. Ukraine are battle-hardened and could hold off an attack, which if combined with EU expulsion/suspension of all privileges, will crash their currency and economy to the point of social unrest.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

As well as Orban I would be keeping a very close eye on his mini-me in Slovakia.

 

[nw1]

As well as Orban I would be keeping a very close eye on his mini-me in Slovakia.

"Direction: Social Democracy" indeed. Resembles the "Democratic Republic of [insert dictatorship here]" for bitter irony.

Are even Orban and Fico mad enough to completely trash the reputation of their respective countries by militarily siding with Russia?

 

[Cloud Strife]

Are even Orban and Fico mad enough to completely trash the reputation of their respective countries by militarily siding with Russia?

Fico doesn't have the strength, he's down to a majority of one in the National Council and most commentators expect him to lose it sooner rather than later. The electoral mathematics are a bit complicated though, as the kingmakers in the next election are likely to be a Fidesz-backed party of the Hungarian minority in Slovakia. Generally, the opposition in Slovakia is best served by keeping him in power as a very weak PM right now.

Orban is a different story, he has the supermajority in the Hungarian Parliament and a compliant President. It wouldn't be beyond impossible for him to announce an attack by Ukraine and a subsequent imposition of martial law to delay elections, and I wouldn't underestimate just how deeply entrenched Fidesz are in Hungary.

There are a lot of powerful local barons who won't want to lose their position and influence if Orban falls, and it's almost certain that if Tisza wins, Fidesz will be ruthlessly hunted down and removed from almost every layer of administration. Hungary is a very centralised country, and as a result, their supporters are almost everywhere.

Having said that, I can't see Hungary having any means to launch more than a rebellion in the bordering districts. The borders themselves are fortified with trenches and barbed wire, and all things considered, Hungary would be a sitting duck against an enraged Ukrainian Army.