Russia invades Ukraine

[gingerheid]

The West also has no intention for peace.

It's a very Western centric viewpoint to put the power or even the ability to make the decision in the West's hands, when it is not the West's decision or even at all within the West's power to decide whether there is peace.

 

[najaB]

The West also has no intention for peace.

Remind me again, was it "the West" that sent tens of thousands of troops across Ukraine's borders a couple years back...?

 

[OhNoAPacer]

Remind me again, was it "the West" that sent tens of thousands of troops across Ukraine's borders a couple years back...?

Now don't start bringing facts into the argument.

 

[DustyBin]

It's a very Western centric viewpoint to put the power or even the ability to make the decision in the West's hands, when it is not the West's decision or even at all within the West's power to decide whether there is peace.

Ukraine will continue to fight even without Western support; seemingly some people don’t realise this. I’m sure the US and others see an opportunity here to an extent, however to suggest that the West is deliberately prolonging the war is a stretch to say the least.

A Russian victory is unpalatable, obviously, but equally so is any kind of escalation that leads to direct Western involvement. Factor in weak leadership, domestic politics, other conflicts, and some threadbare militaries, and it’s not difficult to see why we are where we are. Putin of course is aware of all of this, and is banking on the West bottling it and handing him the initiative.

Remind me again, was it "the West" that sent tens of thousands of troops across Ukraine's borders a couple years back...?

Exactly.

 

[Annetts key]

Does the the bar graph in post #7615 show a lack of Western support? No.

Ukraine and a significant (likely a majority) of the populations of the Western countries that have given aid and support to Ukraine may not consider it enough, but most of these countries are continuing to provide aid and support to Ukraine. Including the U.K.

And the largest country where there is a problem, the U.S.A., it's political games by the Republicans that is holding things up. This may well be resolved later this month.

The only real long lasting peace will be when Russia withdraws its forces back to their own territory, having learned that illegally invading another sovereign country is a bad idea.

If we let Russia "win", it will embolden not just Putin, but also whoever grabs power after him. And it sends completely the wrong signal to other dictators and other countries around the world. The result of which may be that the world experiences more wars, not less.

 

[najaB]

Reports are that Ukraine managed to take out a Russian A-50. Very good news if this is true as they aren't many of them and they're very expensive to replace.

Ukraine says it shot down Russian A-50 spy plane

Army chief Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi said the air force had "destroyed" an A-50 radar detection aircraft.

www.bbc.com

 

[DustyBin]

Reports are that Ukraine managed to take out a Russian A-50. Very good news if this is true as they aren't many of them and they're very expensive to replace.

Ukraine says it shot down Russian A-50 spy plane

Army chief Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi said the air force had "destroyed" an A-50 radar detection aircraft.

www.bbc.com

You beat me to it....

One was damaged (badly IIRC) on the ground in Belarus last year, so this is a big loss if confirmed.

There are also reports of an IL-22 airborne command post being damaged but returning to base (again unconfirmed at this stage). I think Wagner shot one of these down during the attempted coup, so they're another high value asset that the Russians can ill afford to lose.

 

[Mogster]

Russia can’t afford to lose these expensive assets, in fact no one could which is another thing. Combat aircraft have become so complex and expensive they are almost irreplaceable in a reasonable timeframe.

“Soon combat aircraft will become so expensive the country will only be able to afford one. The airforce will have use of it in the morning the navy in the afternoon...“

I can’t remember were this quote comes from, I think it was a US source, they weren’t to far from the truth though.

 

[nw1]

It was a tossup which thread to put this in (vs the other news thread), but it has a some war in Ukraine references so have gone here for this exposure:

Russian celebs at 'almost naked' party stung by backlash

Some of Russia's best-known celebrities apologise as criticism of their behaviour spreads on social media.

www.bbc.co.uk

Morals, Putin-style: it's ok to commit genocide on a neighbouring country but woe betide you if you turn up to a private party semi-naked.

Putin the uptight and sexually-repressed puritan, and at the same time, Putin the mass-murdering monster.

 

[Chingy]

A chilling article in the Metro recently. Also in various other media outlets but the articles are all similar.

Conscription may be on its way back after Nato warns of all-out war with Russia

A top Nato officer has delivered a chilling message.

metro.co.uk

A top military officer has warned people could be conscripted into the armed forces after Natoadmitted it is preparing for an all-out war with Russia.

Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of Nato’s military committee, delivered a chilling message that civilians must brace themselves for the prospect of being called up for military service.

In a stark warning, he said we must all be ready for a full-scale conflict with Russia in the next 20 years that would completely change lives.

The 61-year-old also said large numbers of civilians would need to be mobilised in case World War Three breaks out and that governments would need systems in place to manage the process.

 

[najaB]

A chilling article in the Metro recently. Also in various other media outlets but the articles are all similar.

Worrying, but not too worrying, given that the 20th largest army in the world managed to fight them to a stalemate, right on their doorstep. Stretch those logistical lines out another thousand kilometres or so and I don't think things would go much better for them.

 

[Mogster]

A chilling article in the Metro recently. Also in various other media outlets but the articles are all similar.

Conscription may be on its way back after Nato warns of all-out war with Russia

A top Nato officer has delivered a chilling message.

metro.co.uk

I’d be surprised if it takes until 2040.

Within 5 years seems pretty likely, the West is weak, why would Russia and China want to give us the chance to wake up and re-arm. The US are already clearly stretched trying to keep forces in the Med, Gulf and Eastern Pacific. The RN and RAF have been cut to the bone, France isn’t any more capable. Both the US and UK have weak leaders. NATO is struggling to supply Ukraine with ammo. The Houthis games in the Red Sea show have quickly stores of modern missiles can be depleted.

If a conflict with NATO and Russia develops it seems likely China will attack in the China sea soon after. Iran will probably take the chance to expand its influence the the Middle East, North Korea may attack South why wouldn’t they? After all the Axis forces in WW2 weren’t really a true alliance they just took advantage of instability in Europe caused by Germany distracting the UK.

 

[Russel]

Let's put things into perspective here, Russia, in two years, have used huge amounts of their best soldiers and equipment and have still not captured the whole of the Donetsk region of Ukraine...

Do we really think they are capable of picking a fight with Nato?

It will take many years for Russia to recover from this and rebuild their military, if ever, given the level of corruption we've seen within Russia.

 

[Pete_uk]

If NATO went all in on Russia in Ukraine the war would be over within a month.

 

[birchesgreen]

If NATO went all in on Russia in Ukraine the war would be over within a month.

Because the world would be over within a week.

 

[brad465]

Many of the regimes being talked about here feature old leaders, often presiding over populations and/or wider economic circumstances that are unsustainable. Putin is 71, the Iranian Ayatollah is 84 and "Winnie the Pooh" is 70. Russia and China are having economic woes caused by poor demographics, and we've seen unrest in Iran among women over their poor human rights. The aggressive behaviour/posturing is being driven by a need to distract from all these problems, but it won't last forever, and the inevitable deaths/demise of them will have global implications, for better or worse, depending on who follows and their course of action.

 

[Mogster]

Let's put things into perspective here, Russia, in two years, have used huge amounts of their best soldiers and equipment and have still not captured the whole of the Donetsk region of Ukraine...

Do we really think they are capable of picking a fight with Nato?

It will take many years for Russia to recover from this and rebuild their military, if ever, given the level of corruption we've seen within Russia.

I hope you’re right, however the Russian economy seems to be heading towards a war footing. Russia still has 1000s of tanks in storage, they may be old but they work. Estimates seem to say Russia can build maybe 200 T-90s a year. Other military production is increasing and being standardised.

Europe Must Urgently Prepare to Deter Russia Without Large-Scale US Support

NATO’s European members must ramp up investment in ammunition production and focus military training and force structures against key mission sets to credibly deter Russia from exploiting a clash between the US and China in the late 2020s as an opportunity to break Article 5 in Europe.

www.rusi.org

NATO’s European members must ramp up investment in ammunition production and focus military training and force structures against key mission sets to credibly deter Russia from exploiting a clash between the US and China in the late 2020s as an opportunity to break Article 5 in Europe.

Russia seems addicted to war, there’s no sign of them backing out of Ukraine, both sides are taking appalling casualties in a grinding war not seen since Korea probably. Would NATO be prepared to take similar casualties to hold back waves of Russian tanks? I very much doubt it. The US military in particular is configured to fight short counter insurgency wars not the sort of grinding conflict against a peer enemy we’re seeing in Ukraine.

 

[Eyersey468]

A chilling article in the Metro recently. Also in various other media outlets but the articles are all similar.

Conscription may be on its way back after Nato warns of all-out war with Russia

A top Nato officer has delivered a chilling message.

metro.co.uk

The media's favourite word again, could.

 

[Gaz67]

I think it's inevitable that Russia's advantage in manpower and patience will eventually see them take a large proportion if not all of Ukraine. What happens next is crucial for all of western Europe and our way of life. 2 scenarios, it comes up against a resolute NATO fully backed by the USA who say no more ,or heaven forbid Trump ( the world's most dangerous man) is back in power, NATO weakened as a result and all bets off where this ends. This is the backdrop against today's decision to shut the blast furnaces in Port Talbot, a strategic industry in the hands of India, you couldn't make it up, it's like the 30s all over again except we knew war was coming and we were rearming, under this shower we are cutting ships, soldiers and aircraft at the most dangerous time since 1939.

 

[najaB]

The US military in particular is configured to fight short counter insurgency wars not the sort of grinding conflict against a peer enemy we’re seeing in Ukraine.

Short wars like the eight years in Iraq or the nineteen years in Afghanistan.

 

[GusB]

I think it's inevitable that Russia's advantage in manpower and patience will eventually see them take a large proportion if not all of Ukraine.

What advantage in manpower? They've had to rely on prisoners on early release.

 

[Gaz67]

What advantage in manpower? They've had to rely on prisoners on early release.

Are prisoners on release not manpower?

 

[najaB]

Are prisoners on release not manpower?

I believe that when facing a professional army the correct term is "cannon fodder".

 

[Gaz67]

I believe that when facing a professional army the correct term is "cannon fodder".

Ukraine has a large proportion of conscripts in its rank and is far from a professional army, they are quick learners though and very brave which helps.

 

[najaB]

Ukraine has a large proportion of conscripts in its rank and is far from a professional army, they are quick learners though and very brave which helps.

We were talking about a war against NATO, no?

Wait, no we weren't. Two threads of conversation got crossed in my head.

 

[brad465]

Are prisoners on release not manpower?

They are, but using them is a sign of how risky conscription above a certain level is. There is a post further back from me recently linking an FT report about how prisoners serve 6 months on the front, then if they survive are released freely back into society, whereas innocents on conscription are contracted to be there indefinitely. Any society that treats criminals better than the rest of population is unsustainable and will collapse (granted it maybe years away).

 

[Gloster]

Some of the prisoners who have been released on condition that they fight in Ukraine have served only small portion of lengthy sentences for crimes up to and including murder. A number of the survivors have returned to Russia and either flaunted their freedom in their home towns or committed more offences, again up to and including murder. Many of the population are distinctly unhappy about this, but what can they do.

 

[Mogster]

Short wars like the eight years in Iraq or the nineteen years in Afghanistan.

2001 invasion of Afghanistan took two months. 2003 invasion of Iraq took a month. Casualties in Afghanistan invasion <100, casualties in Iraq invasion <800. After that it’s 20 years of counter insurgency. With around 50,000 US/UK casualties over that time.

Estimates suggest Russia is approaching 400,000 casualties in Ukraine in two years and there’s no sign of a letup. Possible losses of tanks and AFVs approaching 20,000, Insane numbers, a tidal wave of men and machinery…

Casualties of Russia in Ukraine - official data

Casualties of the armed forces of the Russian Federation during the war in Ukraine.

index.minfin.com.ua

19.01.2024

• Tanks — 6167 (+20)
• Armored fighting vehicle — 11445 (+35)
• Artillery systems — 8854 (+19)
• MLRS — 966
• Anti-aircraft warfare — 654 (+1)
• Planes — 331
• Helicopters — 324
• UAV — 6929 (+4)
• Cruise missiles — 1818
• Ships (boats) — 23
• Submarines — 1
• Cars and cisterns — 11831 (+37)
• Special equipment — 1384 (+4)
• Military personnel — aprx. 374520 people (+920)

 

[Annetts key]

The Russians tried a Winter offensive in a number of places. They have gained a relatively small amount of ground, but with huge losses. At the current rate of progress, and assuming they can find enough men and equipment, it will take over twenty years to get the parts of Ukraine that they have annexed, let alone the whole country.

With more help from their allies, Ukraine should be able to continue to hold the current 'front lines'. However, it looks like they need a game changer or for the Russian government or military to unravel if they are to take back all of their territory.

Having said all that, it's doubtful how long Russia can actually continue to suffer the large losses of both men and equipment, but also logistics, before something goes wrong and they have to pull back somewhere.

For equipment, as more and more gets destroyed or damaged beyond quick repair, they are having to use older and less suitable equipment. As you don't leave the good stuff to last...

You should also take the new equipment production numbers from Russia with a very large pinch of salt. A lot of the 'new' main battle tanks are upgraded T72 tanks. Not new build T90 tanks.

Similarly, how many of their men that are left are well trained? Throwing convicts and conscripted men at the front line is one thing. But for the complex equipment like aircraft or other systems where it only works well if the operators know what they are doing, using convicts and conscripted men may mean that these systems are not effective.

At the moment, I don't think Russia is a serious threat to NATO. The European counties may have cut their military back far too much, but combined, they would still stop any invasion by Russia very quickly.

The difference being that NATO would be making very good use of its air power.

However, yes, NATO and the 'western' allies do need to increase funding for their militaries. That includes a big increase in ammunition and missile production.

 

[Yew]

Russia seems addicted to war, there’s no sign of them backing out of Ukraine, both sides are taking appalling casualties in a grinding war not seen since Korea probably. Would NATO be prepared to take similar casualties to hold back waves of Russian tanks? I very much doubt it. The US military in particular is configured to fight short counter insurgency wars not the sort of grinding conflict against a peer enemy we’re seeing in Ukraine.

Have you seen just how deep the US reserves of M1 Abrams tanks are?