Nicola Sturgeon drops Covid elimination strategy
If vaccines have 'broken the link' between cases, admissions and death there's no need to react 'aggressively', said the First Minister
Nicola Sturgeon has abandoned her Covid-19 elimination strategy in a drastic shift which it is hoped will mean there will be no return to prolonged lockdowns.
The First Minister said the success of the vaccination programme, and mounting evidence that jabs are highly effective in preventing serious illness and death, meant that she had begun a transition away from focusing largely on case numbers.
She said that if it is established that vaccines had “broken the link” between cases, hospital admissions and deaths it would mean she would not have to react “quite so aggressively” to future outbreaks.
The major change comes after Ms Sturgeon repeatedly emphasised for almost a year the need to effectively “eliminate” coronavirus by driving case numbers to their lowest possible levels.
As recently as March, when the vaccination programme was well underway, she described elimination as the "only sensible strategy" and warned that the virus “won’t play ball” with any attempt to keep case numbers at a “medium level”.
She has also repeatedly pressed the UK Government to adopt her elimination goal.
However, she revealed on Tuesday that she hoped to ditch the approach, because even if there is a surge in cases, this no longer necessarily means that a significant number of hospitalisations and deaths will follow.
The shift was welcomed by businesses, which said it paved the way for a full reopening of the Scottish economy in the coming weeks.
“Up until now, we have sought to respond as quickly as possible to rising case numbers,” Ms Sturgeon said, at a coronavirus briefing in Edinburgh.
“We have known that increasing case numbers lead, almost like night follows day, to significantly increased hospital and ICU admissions, and unfortunately to increased numbers of deaths.
“But increasingly, we are monitoring whether and to what extent vaccination may be breaking that link between rising case numbers, and significantly rising cases of significant illness and death.
“If that does prove to be the case, as we hope it will, then we hope that our response to this virus can increasingly evolve as well.
“In short, while care will still be needed, because there will always be people who require hospital treatment, it might mean that we don't have to react quite so aggressively with tough restrictions in the face of rising case numbers. Instead, we hope that we'll be able to rely more on enhanced public health interventions.”
Despite case numbers doubling over the past 16 days in Scotland, the number of Covid-19 deaths has remained low. There have been only six coronavirus deaths in Scotland this month, while as of Tuesday, just six people were in intensive care.
Scotland remains on track to offer a first vaccination dose to all adults by the end of July, and it is hoped that everybody will have received two doses by the end of September.
It is expected that restrictions across Scotland will ease further early next month, ahead of the country reaching Level 0 by the end of June.
Ms Sturgeon is under intense pressure to ease Level 3 restrictions in Glasgow, currently facing the harshest measures in the UK, and hinted that she would soon allow the city to enter Level 2 under her new approach, despite case numbers remaining high.
In future, she said, the virus could be dealt with by public health interventions such as testing and vaccination, meaning the response would mean “much less restriction on our day to day lives”.
However, she once again appealed to Scots to get vaccinated, amid concern over a surge in missed appointments, saying it was their “civic duty” to accept jabs when offered.
Liz Cameron, chief executive of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce, said the change of approach would receive “widespread support” from businesses.
“It is essential that we see a greater pace of unlocking restrictions, particularly as our events sector and offices still remain closed among others," she said.
“This more flexible approach should be the key to bringing forward the full re-opening of the economy in the coming weeks.
“We have seen that local outbreaks can be tackled locally with targeted health measures, therefore, this approach should remove the need to apply national lockdown measures as so many businesses are on the edge of survival.”
Sandesh Gulhane, public health spokesman for the Scottish Tories, said: "It is welcome that Nicola Sturgeon recognises the incredible success of the UK vaccination rollout has given us a key weapon in fighting against the virus.
“Vaccines are already proving to drive down hospitalisations and intensive care admissions. That can hopefully mean we continue to safely ease restrictions, even if the virus is still around us, and be able to welcome more visitors to the country.
“This will be music to the ears of businesses who can ill-afford to have tougher restrictions reimposed on them after suffering hugely over the past year."
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