Scotrail Peak Fares Abolition - any results ?

[yorksrob]

I'm just wondering whether there have been any results published or conclusions drawn on Scotrail's experimental abolition of peak fares.

I'm interested in results in terms of usage, revenue, crowding, passenger satisfaction etc.

Any official evaluation/reports would be great, but observations from staff and passengers are also welcome

 

[Blindtraveler]

Nothing official as of yet I don't think but as might be expected it has resulted in an upsurge in passengers purely from my own and others observations, which is good if the aim of this is to make the railway more sustainable and usable but bad if they want to continue peddling the message that was issued loud and proud with the fit for the future post pandemic timetable that nobody was traveling anymore and the railway would have to shrink accordingly

 

[yorksrob]

Nothing official as of yet I don't think but as might be expected it has resulted in an upsurge in passengers purely from my own and others observations, which is good if the aim of this is to make the railway more sustainable and usable but bad if they want to continue peddling the message that was issued loud and proud with the fit for the future post pandemic timetable that nobody was traveling anymore and the railway would have to shrink accordingly

One would certainly hope the first.

Great news if passengers are making use of it.

 

[Blindtraveler]

I think it's downfall maybe that quite a few routes and services are still functioning in their revised fit for the future state either running less frequently or conveying less carriages or indeed both, people aren't going to flock back to the railway if they are going to swap a coach seat say on one of the CityLink commuter services with their own individual reading light and you SB charge socket for a crowded vestibule on a two coach 158 with a locked out bog rather too close to your personal space for comfort

 

[Haywain]

it has resulted in an upsurge in passengers purely from my own and others observations

There has been an upsurge in leisure travel across the rail network since the pandemic, so I'm not sure that you can attribute this to the off-peak fares trial - unless you are saying this is specifically since this trial commenced.

 

[yorksrob]

There has been an upsurge in leisure travel across the rail network since the pandemic, so I'm not sure that you can attribute this to the off-peak fares trial - unless you are saying this is specifically since this trial commenced.

It would be interesting to see if there has been a proportionally greater surge on weekdays than weekends.

 

[Tazi Hupefi]

This is going to have a similar outcome to the £2 bus fares in England - i.e. virtually impossible to row back on without severe political ramifications and adverse publicity.

I also suspect there would be quite serious economic consequences for some groups.

If you've taken a job for the first time, and are now commuting for the first time, perhaps because the current lower fares have now made taking that job possible, suddenly raising these prices significantly back up to the full peak fares is not likely to have been budgeted for, or anticipated by those individuals.

I think if I'd ran this trial, I'd have made a new Scotland Railcard available for 12 months, perhaps for a £5 or £10 fee, that gave a discount of 34% on Anytime fares. That way you could have made the "discount" element clearer, instead of giving the impression of "that's just the fare now" and it could easily have been withdrawn by simply letting these hypothetical Railcards expire. An enterprising Transport Scotland could have used a discount name such as "Scottish Government Concession" to make a political point.

Charging a small upfront fee is also likely to assist in making customers feel encouraged to make additional discounted journeys that they may not have previously undertaken, to recover their upfront investment.

 

[mangyiscute]

This is going to have a similar outcome to the £2 bus fares in England - i.e. virtually impossible to row back on without severe political ramifications and adverse publicity.

I also suspect there would be quite serious economic consequences for some groups.

If you've taken a job for the first time, and are now commuting for the first time, perhaps because the current lower fares have now made taking that job possible, suddenly raising these prices significantly back up to the full peak fares is not likely to have been budgeted for, or anticipated by those individuals.

I think if I'd ran this trial, I'd have made a new Scotland Railcard available for 12 months, perhaps for a £5 or £10 fee, that gave a discount of 34% on Anytime fares. That way you could have made the "discount" element clearer, instead of giving the impression of "that's just the fare now" and it could easily have been withdrawn by simply letting these hypothetical Railcards expire. An enterprising Transport Scotland could have used a discount name such as "Scottish Government Concession" to make a political point.

Charging a small upfront fee is also likely to assist in making customers feel encouraged to make additional discounted journeys that they may not have previously undertaken, to recover their upfront investment.

What would you do in situations where the anytime fare is only slightly more than the off peak fare, or perhaps no off peak fare is offered for the route?

I also would be against an upfront cost since even if it's minimal, it will mean less non-train users think "oh I'll give the train a go once or twice" and hopefully have a good experience and continue to use it - if they have to pay £10 to get the discount initially, they aren't going to try out the train at all.

 

[yorksrob]

What would you do in situations where the anytime fare is only slightly more than the off peak fare, or perhaps no off peak fare is offered for the route?

I also would be against an upfront cost since even if it's minimal, it will mean less non-train users think "oh I'll give the train a go once or twice" and hopefully have a good experience and continue to use it - if they have to pay £10 to get the discount initially, they aren't going to try out the train at all.

That's a good point. The trial is to test what effect the removal off-peak has on the overall population. Those prepared to buy a railcard are only a subset of this, so such an approach would distort the outcome.

 

[Snow1964]

Scottish Greens have issued a statement saying peak fares should be permanently abolished, ahead of expected imminent decision

The Scottish Government’s pilot scheme to remove peak rail fares and shift to off-peak fares all day must be made permanent to build a fairer, greener rail service and encourage people out of cars, says the Scottish Greens transport spokesperson Mark Ruskell.

The groundbreaking scheme, which began in October 2023 and has been extended until June 2024, was secured by the Scottish Greens during their time in Government.

The Scottish Greens understand a decision is due to be made imminently on the future of the pilot, and have launched a campaign to make the off peak all day fare permanent.

Mr Ruskell said: “The removal of peak rail fares, and the shift to off-peak fares all day, has already supported hundreds of thousands of commuters through the cost of living crisis and encouraged people to get out of cars.

“By making the scheme permanent we can ensure that even more people are able to feel its benefits and change their long-standing habits.

“The best changes are ones that help our climate and our communities while supporting household budgets, which is exactly what happens when we cut the cost of transport.

“Every pound that is saved on a commute is money that can instead go towards heating, eating or any of the other expenses that have piled up for households and families all over Scotland as a result of the Tory-inflicted cost-of-living crisis.

“Peak rail fares are an unfair tax on the many workers and students who do not have any choice about when they start work or go to study, that is why the Scottish Greens agreed with Ministers to deliver the pilot scheme.

“During our time in Government, the Scottish Greens strongly supported the move to bring ScotRail back into public ownership. We must now put that to good use and ensure our rail network delivers for people and planet.

“There is no way for us to tackle the climate crisis without drastically reducing the numbers of cars on our roads.

“One of the best ways to do this is to ensure that public transport and greener travel are affordable and attractive choices for travellers.

“That is why the Scottish Greens secured free bus travel for everyone under 22 and record investment in walking, wheeling and cycling infrastructure, and why we built on that with the pilot to scrap peak rail fares.

“Cheaper, greener railways can and must be key to tackling the climate crisis and supporting workers and families.

“With a new First Minister taking office, I hope that this change is made permanent and that it can play a key role on our journey to fairer, greener and better transport for Scotland.”

Peak rail fares must be permanently scrapped

Peak rail fares must be permanently scrapped - Scotland needs a fairer, greener rail system.

greens.scot

 

[yorksrob]

That's good news. I wonder what the other parties will say.

 

[Buzby]

The Peak fares reduction is set to be extended (again) for a further three months by new First Minister John Swinney. Initially due to end in March ‘24, it was extended to June. It now appears a further three month extension has been agreed and the scheme will continue until September ‘24.

No figures have been provided yet showing the popularity of the scheme (to abolish all Peak fares) but this latest extension will cover all ScotRail-only services and the Edinburgh Festival period.

 

[yorksrob]

That sounds good. Need to get the deadbeats in Whitehall/Westminster to take note.

 

[David M]

If it's being further extended, would it be reasonable to assume that off peak only hasn't actually cost any money and may have generated more revenue than peak fares were doing during the peak times?

 

[Bletchleyite]

If it's being further extended, would it be reasonable to assume that off peak only hasn't actually cost any money and may have generated more revenue than peak fares were doing during the peak times?

I read an article on it and it apparently has cost money but I didn't see any figures.

It's not comparable with something like LNER or Avanti because the uplift to Anytime on ScotRail was usually quite small. However I think it does present a decent case to reduce the ridiculous level of Anytime fares on IC (and south east commuter) routes significantly to make them affordable rather than pricing people off as happens at present.

 

[Haywain]

If it's being further extended, would it be reasonable to assume that off peak only hasn't actually cost any money and may have generated more revenue than peak fares were doing during the peak times?

I think that is highly unlikely. It will be more about the level of financial damage that has been caused. Politically, I can see the reason for the latest extension being that a new First Minister wouldn't want to be seen ending the reduction as being the first thing they do.

 

[Buzby]

new First Minister wouldn't want to be seen ending the reduction as being the first thing they do.

Some mistake, surely? He wouldn’t have ‘ended it’ It had a fixed duration and had been extended before he even became FM, it would have simply expired. There are however increasing calls for the ending of free bus travel for under 21’s due to an increased number ‘going rogue’. But then politicians will be blamed either way.

 

[Haywain]

Some mistake, surely? He wouldn’t have ‘ended it’ It had a fixed duration and had been extended before he even became FM, it would have simply expired.

No mistake, just a simple view of how spin can work in politics (see also current government announcing things multiple times for greater effect).

 

[Buzby]

You old cynic you!

 

[Haywain]

You old cynic you!

I can't argue with that!

 

[Wallsendmag]

I can't argue with that!

Comes with experience

 

[hexagon789]

If it's being further extended, would it be reasonable to assume that off peak only hasn't actually cost any money and may have generated more revenue than peak fares were doing during the peak times?

I read an article on it and it apparently has cost money but I didn't see any figures.

It has already cost almost twice the funds originally allocated to the trial.

 

[Trainbike46]

Nothing official as of yet I don't think but as might be expected it has resulted in an upsurge in passengers purely from my own and others observations, which is good if the aim of this is to make the railway more sustainable and usable but bad if they want to continue peddling the message that was issued loud and proud with the fit for the future post pandemic timetable that nobody was traveling anymore and the railway would have to shrink accordingly

The official purpose of the trial was to increase passenger numbers - if they achieved that it would be a succes. Though of course it would be interesting to see stats on how much it increased passenger numbers, and whether it was only at peak times, or throughout the day?

I'd hope to see a proper evaluation of the impacts on passenger numbers and travel patterns

 

[3RDGEN]

The initial six month trial was estimated to cost £21.8 million in revenue with £6.6 million generated hence the £15 million the Scottish Government assigned to fund the trial; "https://www.gov.scot/publications/a...rapping-peak-time-rail-tickets-foi-release-2/"

In March this article was in The Scotsman;

"https://try.yorkshirepost.co.uk/new...aces-transport-secretary-fiona-hyslop-4548827 - ScotRail peak fares suspension: Tricky decision over scheme’s future faces transport secretary Fiona Hyslop - The suspension of ScotRail peak fares has been hailed by transport secretary Fiona Hyslop as a “bold initiative” that had also simplified ticket buying as she prepares to consider whether to make the discount permanent. More than one million extra journeys have been made on the nationalised train operator since the initial six-month trial was launched in October. Alex Hynes, managing director of Scotland’s Railway, which comprises ScotRail and track owner Network Rail Scotland, said the pilot was costing the equivalent of £30 million a year compared to its annual fare revenue of £325m, or 9 per cent. He told The Scotsman: “For ScotRail, it’s a significant revenue loss, but it creates fabulous benefits for customers and the economy and society.”"

The quote above implies the £30 million is an annual figure but I have also seen £60 million reported as an annual figure so maybe the £30 million was just the initial six month trial period cost? If you going to trial this it does need to be over a year to get a full picture, I would expect people to use it more during the summer, particularly the school holiday period.

 

[Trainbike46]

The initial six month trial was estimated to cost £21.8 million in revenue with £6.6 million generated hence the £15 million the Scottish Government assigned to fund the trial; "https://www.gov.scot/publications/a...rapping-peak-time-rail-tickets-foi-release-2/"

In March this article was in The Scotsman;

"https://try.yorkshirepost.co.uk/new...aces-transport-secretary-fiona-hyslop-4548827 - ScotRail peak fares suspension: Tricky decision over scheme’s future faces transport secretary Fiona Hyslop - The suspension of ScotRail peak fares has been hailed by transport secretary Fiona Hyslop as a “bold initiative” that had also simplified ticket buying as she prepares to consider whether to make the discount permanent. More than one million extra journeys have been made on the nationalised train operator since the initial six-month trial was launched in October. Alex Hynes, managing director of Scotland’s Railway, which comprises ScotRail and track owner Network Rail Scotland, said the pilot was costing the equivalent of £30 million a year compared to its annual fare revenue of £325m, or 9 per cent. He told The Scotsman: “For ScotRail, it’s a significant revenue loss, but it creates fabulous benefits for customers and the economy and society.”"

The quote above implies the £30 million is an annual figure but I have also seen £60 million reported as an annual figure so maybe the £30 million was just the initial six month trial period cost? If you going to trial this it does need to be over a year to get a full picture, I would expect people to use it more during the summer, particularly the school holiday period.

that sounds like there is some confusion happening - either the £30m is an annual figure that was mistaken for a 6-month one (and then doubled by someone to create an estimated annual cost), or it is a 6-month figure misreported as an annual one. As it is exactly double the budgeted figure for 6 months, I suspect it is £30m for the year.

Ideally, there would be an evaluation report that pries down into the details; exact impact on revenue and passenger numbers, are there differences between routes, is there a shift in travel times, does it interact with advance fares in any way, etc. - I hope such a report will be made, and ideally published

 

[kkong]

At the end of the trial (which is now a full year, which is more sensible than the original 6 months, then 9 months), the data available will be (1) the total number of passengers and (2) the total revenue.

It's not clear to me how you can directly determine the "cost" (whether positive or negative) of the suspension of peak fares solely from the revenue.

Passenger numbers and revenue were well off-trend during 2020-22 and were/are recovering towards the norm to some extent even without the trial.

Of course, increasing the number of passengers would be seen as a success.

But Transport Scotland are also directly affecting rail revenues by giving everyone in Scotland who's under 22 free bus and coach travel - you just need to look at the boom in Scottish inter-city coach travel (i.e. journeys which have the higher value rail fares) to see that.

 

[yorksrob]

The initial six month trial was estimated to cost £21.8 million in revenue with £6.6 million generated hence the £15 million the Scottish Government assigned to fund the trial; "https://www.gov.scot/publications/a...rapping-peak-time-rail-tickets-foi-release-2/"

In March this article was in The Scotsman;

"https://try.yorkshirepost.co.uk/new...aces-transport-secretary-fiona-hyslop-4548827 - ScotRail peak fares suspension: Tricky decision over scheme’s future faces transport secretary Fiona Hyslop - The suspension of ScotRail peak fares has been hailed by transport secretary Fiona Hyslop as a “bold initiative” that had also simplified ticket buying as she prepares to consider whether to make the discount permanent. More than one million extra journeys have been made on the nationalised train operator since the initial six-month trial was launched in October. Alex Hynes, managing director of Scotland’s Railway, which comprises ScotRail and track owner Network Rail Scotland, said the pilot was costing the equivalent of £30 million a year compared to its annual fare revenue of £325m, or 9 per cent. He told The Scotsman: “For ScotRail, it’s a significant revenue loss, but it creates fabulous benefits for customers and the economy and society.”"

The quote above implies the £30 million is an annual figure but I have also seen £60 million reported as an annual figure so maybe the £30 million was just the initial six month trial period cost? If you going to trial this it does need to be over a year to get a full picture, I would expect people to use it more during the summer, particularly the school holiday period.

That's interesting.

In the context of overall costs, a loss of 9% of revenue for what is a considerable benefit for passengers might, politically be acceptable.

If we were to consider a more modest proposal of abolishing off-peak on Fridays nationwide, we can assume that it would be less than a 2% drop.

Of course, increasing the number of passengers would be seen as a success.

But Transport Scotland are also directly affecting rail revenues by giving everyone in Scotland who's under 22 free bus and coach travel - you just need to look at the boom in Scottish inter-city coach travel (i.e. journeys which have the higher value rail fares) to see that.

I think would undesirable to further over-incentivise coach/bus travel at the expense of rail any further than now. Students/YP is one of rails best markets when not distorted.