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Scottish Parliament Election May 5th 2016

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Butts

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This must be the most progressive ballot taking place in the UK this year.

Not only is the system used partly proportional but also 16 and 17 year olds are eligible to vote.

The SNP are currently in "pole position" with an overall majority in a system designed to prevent such an occurrence !!

Will Labour collapse as they did at the Westminster Election and potentially add to the SNP hegemony?

Will the Liberals suffer a similar fate ?

Can the Conservatives improve on their current position and actually win some seats outright rather than relying on the list element of the process ?

Whatever happens the Parliament will be more representative of the wishes of the electorate than any Westminster Election.

Sounds to good to be true and begs the question why is the system not used for UK General Elections?

Early hustings Labour and the Lib Dems want to increase income tax to pay for better services, Labour also want to abolish Council Tax and replace it with a fairer system which on the face of it is a sensible proposition. It involves revaluation of the Housing Bands which westminster governments have bottled for years.

Conservatives are complaining that Scottish Taxpayers will be paying more Income Tax than the rest of the UK if or I should say when the SNP are relected.

The SNP despite all their progressive rhetoric have bottled a 50p Higher Tax Rate. How much longer will they be able to blame Wesminster when a remedy to become more altruistic is within their remit ?
 
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me123

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I think it's almost a certainty that the SNP will remain where they are - a slender majority, possibly slightly extended. They should win most of the constituency seats, with the other parties scrambling with the AMS. Of course, as with any proportional system, when a majority of people support the party (or close to a majority, as no representative system is truly proportional) then it is reasonable for the party to have a majority. No fair system can prevent majorities when the electorate overwhelmingly vote for one party. With the SNP likely to get close to 50% of the overall vote, a slender majority would not be an unfair outcome.

Labour can and should collapse. Kezia Dugdale is absolutely hopeless. I wonder about them moving to the other side of the chamber, and I actually hope that the Conservatives move into second place, as Ruth Davidson actually has the capacity to hold the SNP to account. Theres been no Liberal resurgence as of yet.

As you've touched on, it's interesting that income tax will be an important issue in this election. I'm a but underwhelmed by the SNP's tax proposals. As expected, the 40p rate threshold will be untouched, but there's not really much more to it. They've not increased the additional rate, sadly. It's a marginal improvement over the budget, but I was hoping for something a bit more interesting.
 

Butts

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I think it's almost a certainty that the SNP will remain where they are - a slender majority, possibly slightly extended. They should win most of the constituency seats, with the other parties scrambling with the AMS. Of course, as with any proportional system, when a majority of people support the party (or close to a majority, as no representative system is truly proportional) then it is reasonable for the party to have a majority. No fair system can prevent majorities when the electorate overwhelmingly vote for one party. With the SNP likely to get close to 50% of the overall vote, a slender majority would not be an unfair outcome.

Labour can and should collapse. Kezia Dugdale is absolutely hopeless. I wonder about them moving to the other side of the chamber, and I actually hope that the Conservatives move into second place, as Ruth Davidson actually has the capacity to hold the SNP to account. Theres been no Liberal resurgence as of yet.

As you've touched on, it's interesting that income tax will be an important issue in this election. I'm a but underwhelmed by the SNP's tax proposals. As expected, the 40p rate threshold will be untouched, but there's not really much more to it. They've not increased the additional rate, sadly. It's a marginal improvement over the budget, but I was hoping for something a bit more interesting.

Well it looks like just thee and I interested in events in "the real north" :lol:

Although I am a Tory I can't agree with you about Labours policies. I think their proposals for raising income tax and reforming the Council Tax are quite progressive and I'm suprised they don't meet with your approval.

With regard to the SNP it is time for them to "step up" and use their new powers pertaining to taxation for the benefit of the needy. To keep blaming Westminster is going to look ever more hollow if they fail to utilise the tools at their disposal.

I must confess I loathe Patrick Harvie The Scottish Greens leader. For me the highlight of the Euro Elections was UKIP winning a seat in Scotland and his party getting nowt. Totally illogical I know but not enough was made of this at the time contradicting NS's assertion that UKIP have no place in Scotland.

As for Ruth she is a capable lady "****ing in the wind" but she never gives up and is an astute individual to be admired. Lord alone knows what the ladies of Morningside make of a "dyke" at the helm. However she is more than a match for any hetrosexual.

Will you be defecting from Nicola to Leanne when you head for Payes de Galles ? I'm hoping you will begin a campaign to reverse the smoking restrictions in your new motherland ;)
 
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St Rollox

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Usual ineptly bad leadership (I'm being nice here) from Labour will see them losing their last 15 heartland seats.
Some Labour losers on the first ballot will get back in on the second list ballot.
I questioned Labour MPs behaviour at the Scottish referendum as being British Nationalism and I have since been proved right.
One of the failed Labour MPs, Tom Harris, has been appointed head of Leave Scotland for the EU referendum.
 

Senex

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Not only is the system used partly proportional but also 16 and 17 year olds are eligible to vote.

I remain to be convinced that that's a good thing.

Sounds to good to be true and begs the question why is the system not used for UK General Elections?

Because there's a tacit conspiracy between the two great parties south of the border to keep FPTP because that gives them their turns at total power (with the recent exception of the one coalition). How far the electors are genuinely represented is a matter of total unconcern to those who run both the Labour and Tory machines.
 

EssexGonzo

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16 and 17 year olds will be much more susceptible to the social media-friendly nationalistic soundbites which is why including them is good. For the SNP.

Whether they'll be able to weigh up the various strategic fiscal, trade, social, security and transport aspects of each party's manifesto is another matter entirely.

Whilst I have no doubt whatsoever that the SNP will come out on top, by quite a margin, you have to wonder when the two key reasons for this - nationalistic, unsupported rhetoric and the ineptitude of the other parties - will begin to fade.
 

sng7

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Being near the 16-17 year old age group I would say a fair number have been engaged with politics in no small part due to the Scottish referendum, it got people involved and talking about politics and people in that age group definitely good have sensible thoughts and conversations about it then so there is no reason they can't here.
 

Gutfright

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The SNP despite all their progressive rhetoric have bottled a 50p Higher Tax Rate. How much longer will they be able to blame Wesminster when a remedy to become more altruistic is within their remit ?

This is a good question. I think they'll continue to rely on blaming Westminster for as long as they can. It's a political tactic which has paid dividends for them recently, why would they stop now?
 

GaryMcEwan

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I wouldn't be surprised if the SNP do win, however they need to stop blaming everything that they have failed on on someone else. It's not only boring to hear, but highly repetitive. I can also see the Conservatives becoming the opposition if Labour doesn't get their finger out of their behind.

In relation to a 1p Income Tax raise, what's 1p? I'd gladly pay an extra 1p if it meant public services had extra.

Seeing the likes of Sturgeon and Hosie squirming when getting interviewed by the likes of Andrew Neil gives me great pleasure.

Also as a former resident in South Perthshire and Kinross-shire, I hope people actually think about who they vote for instead of voting for that useless Roseanna Cunningham...
 

St Rollox

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I wouldn't be surprised if the SNP do win, however they need to stop blaming everything that they have failed on on someone else. It's not only boring to hear, but highly repetitive. I can also see the Conservatives becoming the opposition if Labour doesn't get their finger out of their behind.

In relation to a 1p Income Tax raise, what's 1p? I'd gladly pay an extra 1p if it meant public services had extra.

Seeing the likes of Sturgeon and Hosie squirming when getting interviewed by the likes of Andrew Neil gives me great pleasure.

Also as a former resident in South Perthshire and Kinross-shire, I hope people actually think about who they vote for instead of voting for that useless Roseanna Cunningham...

I'm thinking of joining SLAB again.
Lot of talk going on in the background with a old few comrades about taking the next step towards Federalism.
Our last project got us devolution and a parliament.
This idea would leave defence and foreign affairs with London but everything else would be decided in Scotland.
Exciting times.
 

Senex

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I'm thinking of joining SLAB again.
Lot of talk going on in the background with a old few comrades about taking the next step towards Federalism.
Our last project got us devolution and a parliament.
This idea would leave defence and foreign affairs with London but everything else would be decided in Scotland.
Exciting times.
But how can you have federalism without proper devolution for England -- or are you really envisaging three federal states but England directly governed by the Federation parliament?
 

St Rollox

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But how can you have federalism without proper devolution for England -- or are you really envisaging three federal states but England directly governed by the Federation parliament?

Federalism/Devo Max/full Home Rule, call it what you will.
It's really about taking Scotland's political future to the next level.
Does help if a major political party in England is on board.
It's sometimes forgotten Labour/Tony Blair pushed a Scottish Referendum through Westminster in 1997.
From winning the election to referendum day was 4 months.
The next logical step would be full Home Rule.
It's already being discussed by activists inside the Labour Party in Scotland.
Fighting politics from a constant negative leads to disasters like May 2015 and no doubt May 2016.
Full Home Rule was also Liberal policy for a hundred years and the SNP ain't likely to say no to more powers for the Scottish Parliament.
 

miami

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In relation to a 1p Income Tax raise, what's 1p? I'd gladly pay an extra 1p if it meant public services had extra.

From your bank? Based on next financial year's figures:

For a gross income of £15k it's £3.50 a month
For a gross income of £25k it's £11.83 a month
For a gross income of £35k it's £20.16 a month
For a gross income of £45k it's £28.50 a month
For a gross income of £55k it's £36.83 a month
 

GaryMcEwan

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From your bank? Based on next financial year's figures:

For a gross income of £15k it's £3.50 a month
For a gross income of £25k it's £11.83 a month
For a gross income of £35k it's £20.16 a month
For a gross income of £45k it's £28.50 a month
For a gross income of £55k it's £36.83 a month

An extra £3.50 a month is absolutely fine by me...
 

Chew Chew

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The SNP will, IMO, gain a comfortable majority again. They are still riding the wave of the UK election from last year.

Labour in Scotland are seen as so much of a joke these days, to go from Jim Murphy to Kezia Dugdale was a massive step down and we all know how poor Murphy was, that it wouldn't be a surprise if the Conservatives became the main opposition party in Scotland which would have been unbelievable just a couple of years ago.

The SNP do have some difficult questions to answer though. The Named Persons Scheme is a disaster waiting to happen, the Offensive Behaviour At Football Act is ripped apart time after time in court with sheriffs saying it is a joke with the police being caught out in court and also attempting to stop protests, literacy rates are declining for Scottish children and Scottish universities have the worst drop out rate of the UK.

It shows the state of the opposition when despite some of these issues the SNP look like they'll walk it.
 

Butts

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Just watched the first leaders debate from the other night.

It is really progressive to see the leaders of the three major parties are all Women - SNP, Labour and Conservative.

Most of the debate focussed on Scotlands new tax raising powers and how they would be used. Hearing politicians discussing tax rises to maintain services is a welcome change.

It was the Nicola,Kezia and Ruth show as the other three are largely an irrelevance. The UKIP guy David was a bit of a buffoon as mentioned before.Poor Willie Rennie of the LD's did his best and Patrick from the Greens as ever lives in Cloud Cuckoo Land.

If people paid attention to what was being said the result could be close, but I fear the SNP could get elected in most places in the form of a monkey with a rosette.
 

miami

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Just watched the first leaders debate from the other night.

It is really progressive to see the leaders of the three major parties are all Women - SNP, Labour and Conservative.

Another statement would be "sexist".

Or perhaps they're simply the best people for the job and their gender has nothing to do with it, progressive or not?

It was the Nicola,Kezia and Ruth show as the other three are largely an irrelevance.

Cute you think that a party with 13% of the votes are in the same league as the SNP and Labour.
 

68000

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I will vote SNP. Labour are an embarrassment, the tories are the tories and although Davidson is a capable speaker, she is still a tory. Rennie is pathetic and I despair that I even voted Lib Dem previously
 

cf111

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I might spoil my constituency ballot. Labour are pathetic, the Liberal Democrats may as well not exist and voting for the Conservatives would have roughly same same effect as spoiling my ballot. I'm not voting SNP because I don't believe that Scotland should be in independent country.

I don't know what I'll do on my regional/list vote yet.
 

DaveNewcastle

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This must be the most progressive ballot taking place in the UK this year.

Not only is the system used partly proportional but also 16 and 17 year olds are eligible to vote.
I'm sure that you're correct, but if it was more 'progressive', then it might allow some others who are currently disenfranchised to vote:
Prisoners (see Lords Nimmo-Smith, Abernethy & Emslie and the Supreme Court 2015)
Those who have appointed an Attorney to act for them during their incapacity (see me);
Property owners who are absent;
Business owners / employers who are absent;
'Sectioned' patients.​
(apologies to the Exec. if any of these categories have been enfranchised without my noticing)
 

cb a1

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. I'm not voting SNP because I don't believe that Scotland should be in independent country.
I do believe Scotland should be an independent country and I'm an SNP supporter. However, like you I won't be voting for my constituency SNP candidate as he's been an utter waste of space. Whilst he'll still win and the Lib Dem doesn't have a hope, the Lib Dems have at least had the decency to always reply when I contact any of my various elected representatives, so they will be rewarded with my constituency vote at least and maybe even my regional vote.
 

Butts

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Another cracking debate from The Assembly Rooms in Edinburgh the other night this time on STV.

There was no UKIP representative this time though, just SNP, Labour , Tory and Green.

It's almost surreal to hear Politicians arguing for tax rises or the reintroduction of prescription charges live on Television.

Blaming Westminster Tory austerity cuts is starting to wear a bit thin when you have the power to do something about it.

Also it was a 2 hour debate with a large section of the Politicians questioning each other directly, something missing from the Westminster Debates.

For the sake of democracy in Scotland we don't need another SNP Landslide and hopefully the electorate will be wise enough to ensure this does not happen.
 
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PaulLothian

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For the sake of democracy in Scotland we don't need another SNP Landslide and hopefully the electorate will be wise enough to ensure this does not happen.

The Scottish Parliament electoral system is designed to give a relatively high degree of accuracy in reflecting the expressed views of the electorate, compared with most systems in use in the UK. However its complexity means that tactical voting is extremely difficult.

There are issues with the system that should be reconsidered. I find it disappointing that politicians who have been heavily rejected by the electorate in constituency seats should nevertheless be parachuted into the SP through the list system.
 

DynamicSpirit

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There are issues with the system that should be reconsidered. I find it disappointing that politicians who have been heavily rejected by the electorate in constituency seats should nevertheless be parachuted into the SP through the list system.

Out of interest, why do you find that objectionable? I would have assumed that most people, even in constituency seats will be voting for the party not the individual - with only a minority changing their vote on account of an individual standing. The obvious conclusion is therefore that where people stand in a constituency and don't get elected, it's usually not a reflection of the person, but simply a case of their choosing a constituency where their party wasn't sufficiently popular - so there's no reason to bar them from being elected through the list.

Besides, if people who failed in the constituency section were ineligible to be selected through the list, that would give a rather perverse incentive to all parties to avoid selecting particularly competent individuals in marginal seats (because of the risk of losing those competent individuals altogether if they lose). I can't imagine that that would be good for democracy.
 

devon_metro

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For the sake of democracy in Scotland we don't need another SNP Landslide and hopefully the electorate will be wise enough to ensure this does not happen.

Amen to that.

The SNP is too hellbent on becoming independent and it is quite clear that would have been disastrous for the Scottish economy!
 

Butts

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I never thought I'd say this but the format of the STV Debate was far superior to the BBC Scotland one, although it was two hours rather than an hour.

Let's see what the BBC do on the final one :idea:
 
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