I also suspect that it is a smartcard that will make a system workable. However the question then becomes who actually pays for it?
It's possible that smartcards, along with a simplified fares system including discounts for regular journeys may actually increase revenue.
Some who now do not choose rail could decide to switch if it becomes more economical for them, for instance.
We can't know the answer with any certainty, but ther eis no guarantee that it will actually negatively impact on TOC revenue, though I cna see why they would claim this in order to beenfit from any extra funding they could negotiaite on the back of it.
The TOCs have based their franchise bids on the ticket types that were in exsitence at the time. The very fact that the scheme offers those working part time means that the TOCs are going to want compensating. Who is going to compensate them? Well be definition it must be the taxpayer.
I think it;slikely that smartcards will be introduced as franchises are renegotiated, as the points about revenue forecasts based on existing tickets are very valid.
At the very least I would expect bidders to be aware of the possible introduction of smartcards during the franchise.
Our trains are noticeably quieter on a friday and it wold seem that potentially 10 or 20% of season ticket holders will swap for a ticket that gives 4 days travel which could cost TOCs a lot of money.
Again, it's possible that any such loss of revenue could be balanced out by increases in the total numbers travelling overall.
The only certainty with smartcards is that things will change, and that will icnlude revenue and business models. I don't think we can, or should, transpose today's thinking on what may happen under a totally different system.
There will, though, undoubtedly be winners and losers if any alternative fares model is brought in, as it's impossible to satisy everyone!
However at the same time the TOCs do seem to have their cake and eat it on existing season tickets (and I exclude London Travelcards from this).
I forget the exact figures but if I was to trade in my annual season ticket the refund is effectively based on the fact I pay for 10 months travel but get 12, so I get roughtly a 17% discount presumably based on the fact there are 10 bank holidays (2 working weeks) plus 4 weeks holiday etc soo pricing my season ticket that costs say £2,500 at £11.36 a day.
When it comes to Delay Repay however the calcuilation is done on the assumption that I travel 5 times aweek, for 52 weeks of the year, and I travel something like 1 weekend in every 2 so pricing my annual season ticket at £6.84 a day.
The figures aren't exactly correct but the principle of how they calculate it is correct. So when I am paying them they want me, when they are paying me they want less, strange that!
The actual figures are differnet around the country, and I would expect the discounts to vary by route as well. What needs to happen is to attract more travellers without overcrowding the trains any more than they are already, and clearly some areas have more potential for that than others.
In my view, more attractive offers need to be made for part time workers, shift workers and the like, some of whom travel by other means at the moment. It won't be easy, and I don't have all the answers, but I am sure it could be done somehow!
Season ticket holders get a discount because they are giving the TOCs a wedge of cash upfront, they are paying for journeys they don't make etc. In fact there are many people who do flexi time, get long holiday periods etc and can therefore play the season ticket pricing strategy to win, by timing breaks to minimise days they don't travel but have a season ticket and its not that difficult to get to a situation where it is cheaper to buy a combination of weekly and monthkys instead of an annual ticket.
I don't see anything wrong wiht the principle that paying in advance, rather than paying as you go should provide a better discount. I tried it myself, and it didn't work for me, but I agree that some are able to take advantage of the current system.
But as I said, there are always going to be winners and losers!
