Second Scottish Independence Referendum

[radamfi]

Really? Do you have any evidence of that? Within three hours of the Brexit result being declared Nicola Sturgeon was on the radio suggesting that a second referendum was very much on the cards.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38528058

Nicola Sturgeon has suggested a soft Brexit would see the prospect of Scottish independence removed - in the short term.

Speaking on the BBC's Good Morning Scotland programme, the first minister said she believed Scotland's "direction of travel" was towards independence.
But she said this could be "put aside" in the short term as she seeks "consensus and compromise" over Brexit.

Opposition parties want Ms Sturgeon to rule out a second referendum.
Ms Sturgeon said she wanted the UK to retain membership of the European single market, the so-called soft Brexit option.

If the UK as a whole was to leave the market, she has set out terms on which Scotland could potentially stay in, but these would require new powers being devolved to Holyrood.

 

[RichmondCommu]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38528058

The key words here being "in the short term"

 

[radamfi]

The key words here being "in the short term"

Obviously the end goal for the SNP is independence, by definition. But we are clearly talking about a referendum as a result of Brexit.

 

[najaB]

The key words here being "in the short term"

The short term was defined by the SNP after the 2014 referendum as being until there was sustained clear majority support for independence.

 

[RichmondCommu]

The short term was defined by the SNP after the 2014 referendum as being until there was sustained clear majority support for independence.

Obviously the end goal for the SNP is independence, by definition. But we are clearly talking about a referendum as a result of Brexit.

In other words all this talk of a soft Brexit is completely irrelevant as it would not have stopped the SNP from seeking independence. The outcome of a hard or soft Brexit would have been and indeed is exactly the same.

 

[RichmondCommu]

The short term was defined by the SNP after the 2014 referendum as being until there was sustained clear majority support for independence.

Well exactly. So in other words even the outcome of the Brexit vote (let alone a soft or hard Brexit) was never going to curtail the SNP's ambitions.

 

[radamfi]

In other words all this talk of a soft Brexit is completely irrelevant as it would not have stopped the SNP from seeking independence. The outcome of a hard or soft Brexit would have been and indeed is exactly the same.

If May and Sturgeon had agreed to a soft Brexit then nobody would have to endure the loss of the single market, along with its benefits, and there would be no referendum in Scotland for a significant period of time. Maybe they have actually agreed this in private and they are both posturing to their own sides at the moment. May surely doesn't really believe hard Brexit is in the national interest and presumably doesn't want to lose Scotland from the UK. She's just saying "hard Brexit" for short term political reasons. During negotiations with the EU, hard Brexit will be deemed "unworkable", and then the referendum will get called off.

 

[najaB]

Well exactly. So in other words even the outcome of the Brexit vote (let alone a soft or hard Brexit) was never going to curtail the SNP's ambitions.

If there was no Brexit vote (or a soft Brexit) it is highly unlikely that public opinion would have changed v the position in 2014.

 

[RichmondCommu]

If there was no Brexit vote (or a soft Brexit) it is highly unlikely that public opinion would have changed v the position in 2014.

In the short term I would agree with but in the long term I think it would have done. The very strong support for the SNP suggests to me that with or without Brexit the Scots would have voted for independence at the next opportunity.

 

[RichmondCommu]

If May and Sturgeon had agreed to a soft Brexit then nobody would have to endure the loss of the single market, along with its benefits, and there would be no referendum in Scotland for a significant period of time.

How do you define significant? Eventually the Scots would / will leave.

 

[RichmondCommu]

May surely doesn't really believe hard Brexit is in the national interest and presumably doesn't want to lose Scotland from the UK. She's just saying "hard Brexit" for short term political reasons. During negotiations with the EU, hard Brexit will be deemed "unworkable", and then the referendum will get called off.

Assuming that you are referring to the Brexit vote, with some regret I have to say that we are now beyond the point of no return. Brexit is now an absolute certainty in my opinion.

 

[najaB]

The very strong support for the SNP suggests to me that with or without Brexit the Scots would have voted for independence at the next opportunity.

Support for the SNP and support for independence aren't the same thing. I know quite a few people who voted for the SNP in the last couple of elections simply because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Labour. I can't believe that they were exceptional in that behaviour.

 

[radamfi]

How do you define significant? Eventually the Scots would / will leave.

If there was no Brexit vote, I highly doubt we would be talking about a Scottish referendum now, and probably not for another 10 years at least.

Assuming that you are referring to the Brexit vote, with some regret I have to say that we are now beyond the point of no return. Brexit is now an absolute certainty in my opinion.

I'm talking about the second Scottish referendum. Soft Brexit is probably unavoidable now, but hard Brexit is by no means a certainty, if the UK government wants to avoid it.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Support for the SNP and support for independence aren't the same thing. I know quite a few people who voted for the SNP in the last couple of elections simply because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Labour. I can't believe that they were exceptional in that behaviour.

However if you're voting for the SNP surely you're voting for the ideals of the SNP. The chief ideal being independence. If not then why bother to vote for them?

 

[me123]

Support for the SNP and support for independence aren't the same thing. I know quite a few people who voted for the SNP in the last couple of elections simply because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Labour. I can't believe that they were exceptional in that behaviour.

They most definitely are not the same. The SNP is often labelled as a single-issue party, often by those outwith Scotland who do not take the time to look at the politics of Scotland. Nothing could be further from the truth. The SNP have been in government now for coming up to ten years and have demonstrated that they are as competent as any other mainstream political party. They have a coherent and comprehensive set of policies, with which quite a lot of people agree.

The SNP's success is not solely contingent on independence supporters, they have appealed to unionists as well. Whether that's just an anti-labour protest vote or whether there's more to their policies is something that can be debated. But the opinion polls usually show a sizeable number of people intending to vote SNP who would not vote for independence, which demonstrates that the two are not necessarily linked.

 

[ninja-lewis]

Crude oil prices have dropped by about half over the last 4 years, and according to the data at http://www.tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil have actually risen during 2016. How is it possible for that to cause the claimed 97% fall in Scottish oil revenues during 2016?

Refunds of tax paid in previous years due to trading losses and decommissioning costs.

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/08/2132/331647

The days of high tax rates in the UK Continental Shelf are over as focus (both Treasury and Scottish Government) moves to encouraging companies to recover as much as possible before inevitable decommissioning.

 

[AlterEgo]

However if you're voting for the SNP surely you're voting for the ideals of the SNP. The chief ideal being independence. If not then why bother to vote for them?

Because perhaps you feel they're the only party equipped to deliver a fair society.

Single issue parties don't only attract single issue voters and to suggest otherwise is to fail to understand the political landscape.

 

[RichmondCommu]

If there was no Brexit vote, I highly doubt we would be talking about a Scottish referendum now, and probably not for another 10 years at least.

Ah, so in perhaps ten years time (according to you) there would be a referendum and only because the SNP thought that they could win it. So as I said the vote for Brexit is irrelevant as eventually the SNP would have still wanted a referendum on independence.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Because perhaps you feel they're the only party equipped to deliver a fair society.

Single issue parties don't only attract single issue voters and to suggest otherwise is to fail to understand the political landscape.

However anyone voting for the SNP would surely know that they were determined to seek independence, and that voting for them only strengthened the chances of that happening.

 

[me123]

However if you're voting for the SNP surely you're voting for the ideals of the SNP. The chief ideal being independence. If not then why bother to vote for them?

I can assure you that lots of people vote for parties and candidates without necessarily agreeing with every single thing they say. This is because everyone has a unique opinion, yet there are only a small number of political parties. Compromise has to be found somewhere if we are to vote for anyone.

Voting for the SNP whilst opposing independence is actually quite easy to justify, as independence will only ever come to fruition through a referendum. So you can continue to support the SNP for the many other policies that you may agree with, safe in the knowledge that in the event of a referendum on independence you can vote "No".

 

[najaB]

However if you're voting for the SNP surely you're voting for the ideals of the SNP. The chief ideal being independence. If not then why bother to vote for them?

Because if you can't vote for the government you want, you vote against the government you don't want.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Because if you can't vote for the government you want, you vote against the government you don't want.

However you could vote Labour instead, who are certainly not in favour of independence.

 

[najaB]

However anyone voting for the SNP would surely know that they were determined to seek independence, and that voting for them only strengthened the chances of that happening.

The SNP's stated position was that they would only seek a second referendum if (a) there was clearly demonstrated majority support for independence in public opinion polling, sustained for a period of several months; or (b) there was a fundamental change to UK policy which was inconsistent with the will of the Scottish electorate (in other words, if the UK voted out of the EU while Scotland voted in).

The first of those two wasn't going to happen any time soon.

 

[me123]

However you could vote Labour instead, who are certainly not in favour of independence.

Scottish Labour are at least as incompetent as the national party. There's a very good reason they've been beaten into third place. Scottish Labour had (and probably still have) a sense of entitlement that only they should represent the people of Scotland, yet they let us down badly over the years. If you ever watch the Scottish Parliament proceedings, you'll find that the quality of debate coming from the Labour benches is truly dire when compared to what you hear from the Conservatives and the Nationalists.

 

[AlterEgo]

However you could vote Labour instead, who are certainly not in favour of independence.

Only if you want to **** your vote up against the wall in Scotland. Who are the Labour Party again?

 

[RichmondCommu]

I can assure you that lots of people vote for parties and candidates without necessarily agreeing with every single thing they say. This is because everyone has a unique opinion, yet there are only a small number of political parties. Compromise has to be found somewhere if we are to vote for anyone.

I concur however it's difficult to imagine someone being dead against independence and yet still choosing to vote for the SNP.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Only if you want to **** your vote up against the wall in Scotland. Who are the Labour Party again?

A lot of people were saying that about the Labour Party in the early 1980's in many parts of England.

 

[radamfi]

Ah, so in perhaps ten years time (according to you) there would be a referendum and only because the SNP thought that they could win it. So as I said the vote for Brexit is irrelevant as eventually the SNP would have still wanted a referendum on independence.

Obviously the SNP want independence but want to maximise the chance of a successful referendum. The chance of them winning a referendum is reduced if the electorate don't have to worry about a hard Brexit. If Sturgeon appears to have secured a soft Brexit for Scotland (and the rest of us), whilst that won't help the independence cause in the short term, that may well get brownie points for her and the SNP will look good as it will seem as if they have put the country above their political ambition. That may help a referendum bid in the future.

If indeed a hard Brexit is on the cards, then the independence cause is made much stronger and therefore the SNP would be silly not to have a referendum.

 

[RichmondCommu]

The SNP's stated position was that they would only seek a second referendum if (a) there was clearly demonstrated majority support for independence in public opinion polling, sustained for a period of several months; or (b) there was a fundamental change to UK policy which was inconsistent with the will of the Scottish electorate (in other words, if the UK voted out of the EU while Scotland voted in).

The first of those two wasn't going to happen any time soon.

Perhaps, but eventually the position would have changed because from what I can see younger voters are more likely to vote for independence.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Obviously the SNP want independence but want to maximise the chance of a successful referendum. The chance of them winning a referendum is reduced if the electorate don't have to worry about a hard Brexit. If Sturgeon appears to have secured a soft Brexit for Scotland (and the rest of us), whilst that won't help the independence cause in the short term, that may well get brownie points for her and the SNP will look good as it will seem as if they have put the country above their political ambition. That may help a referendum bid in the future.

If indeed a hard Brexit is on the cards, then the independence cause is made much stronger and therefore the SNP would be silly not to have a referendum.

So in other words sooner or later the Scots would have voted for independence.