Should some longer rural routes be sacrificed and the money spent elsewhere on the network?

[yorksrob]

There is already a bus/coach service parallel to the railway. Why would it disappear because the railway did?!

We don't know how stable it is economically. Lots of places have seen busy bus services cut recently. They just don't have the long term stability of a railway.

The money doesn’t disappear. Reducing unjustifiable government spending is a good thing. All the “well it’s only £100m” spending quickly adds up……

Rural passenger services are extremely justifiable. If we want to remove unjustifiable spending, there are various inefficiencies in the way the railway is managed that should be looked at before we start cutting services. Why is any share dividend paid by a private company from running a public service, better value to me as a passenger than running the service itself.

How many tourists wouldnt go if they couldn’t use FNL? Most of them will drive instead, stop off more, and put more money into the local economy.

This sounds like wishful thinking to me. I suspect that those inclined to drive long distances for leisure are already driving. Those who aren't will probably go elsewhere.

Killer A9 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Investment in the A9 improves life for everybody north of Inverness, much more so than railway investment.

Road and rail are important transport modes.

 

[HighlandStorm]

You might not think that the justifications stack up, but that isn't the same as claiming that none have been given.

Steve in Selby (or the DfT for that matter) doesn’t get a say in whether the Far North Line closes or not!

Roads in rural areas are better investments as they help everybody, particularly in reducing business costs.

Putting nuclear flasks and giant pipes on the A9 helps no-one.

 

[yorksrob]

Got any stats to back that up? Pretty certain it isn’t “a lot less”, more likely to be ‘very slightly less’.

The whole Beeching programme was designed around the idea that passengers would railhead to other stations. This largely didn't happen.

For a current example, one only has to look at the numbers of passengers feeding into the WCML from places such as Windermere, Barrow, Blackpool, North Wales and Chester etc. I doubt many of them would bother driving to Preston, Oxenholme etc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The whole Beeching programme was designed around the idea that passengers would railhead to other stations. This largely didn't happen.

Though it didn't happen in a very different societal context when it comes to the car. Plenty of people railhead now. I suspect the majority of London commuters drive to the station.

The other thing that was missed was proper bus integration. It was all under the British Transport Commission back then, so goodness knows why they couldn't have been put under single management like they were in other countries (regional buses were, and to some extent still are, railway operated in Germany and Austria for instance). The only place in the UK that seems to be looking at that is Wales. Citylink continues to compete with the railway when it'd be stronger as an offering if they worked together. And as for the loss of integration with CalMac, someone seriously needs their head banging against a brick wall (or the side of a ship) for how incredibly stupid that was.

Some of the closures didn't justify any replacement, of course. But where it was justified it was never integrated.

For a current example, one only has to look at the numbers of passengers feeding into the WCML from places such as Windermere, Barrow, Blackpool, North Wales and Chester etc. I doubt many of them would bother driving to Preston, Oxenholme etc.

Absolutely loads of them drive to an intercity station to avoid faffing with a change. Wigan NW for instance for much of West Lancashire.

 

[yorksrob]

Absolutely loads of them drive to an intercity station to avoid faffing with a change. Wigan NW for instance for much of West Lancashire.

But they're the ones already doing it, not those catching the train from Barrow.

And don't forget that someone travelling from Barrow to Manchester is still using a big chunk of the WCML even if they don't change onto a pendolino.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But they're the ones already doing it, not those catching the train from Barrow.

And don't forget that someone travelling from Barrow to Manchester is still using a big chunk of the WCML even if they don't change onto a pendolino.

Is anybody seriously proposing closing the Furness Line? The middle bit of the Cumbrian Coast perhaps (i.e. Barrow-Whitehaven), once Sellafield closes (a while yet), but the Furness Line would only go in the case of a very severe cut which is unlikely outside of something like a major war (e.g. nuclear war with Russia).

 

[yorksrob]

Is anybody seriously proposing closing the Furness Line? The middle bit of the Cumbrian Coast perhaps (i.e. Barrow-Whitehaven), once Sellafield closes (a while yet), but the Furness Line would only go in the case of a very severe cut which is unlikely outside of something like a major war (e.g. nuclear war with Russia).

No, but I was invited to provide evidence that closing secondary lines will adversely affect usage of the main line. This is it.

 

[stuu]

Dualling the A9 is nice but does seem an extravagance when the much busier A1 between Edinburgh and Newcastle will probably still have single carriageway stretches in 15-20 years time.

As a point of order, the middle section of both roads is around the 10k vehicles per day mark. So not much busier. Neither road deserves dualling based on traffic volumes alone

 

[zwk500]

Is anybody seriously proposing closing the Furness Line? The middle bit of the Cumbrian Coast perhaps (i.e. Barrow-Whitehaven), once Sellafield closes (a while yet), but the Furness Line would only go in the case of a very severe cut which is unlikely outside of something like a major war (e.g. nuclear war with Russia).

The Cumbrian coast serves several towns of decent size as well as the edges of the Lake district which are popular with tourists in addition to the Sellafield flows so I can't see any proposal for closure seriously advancing. It is however quite staff intensive as it's mostly manual boxes, with several switched out at weekends.

 

[eldomtom2]

I'm not fully convinced that that a saving from closing the Far North Line would just 'disappear'. It very much depends on how the Government chooses to fund the railways in the following decades: If it decides that there is a certain amount it is willing to pay to subsidise trains and it's up to the railways to decide how to use that money, then it's likely that keeping the Far North Line open would be reducing the subsidy available to keep some services running elsewhere (although it would be almost impossible to identify which specific lines are the ones losing out). On the other hand, if the Government works by asking the railways how much money is needed to run a chosen level of service and then just coughs up that money however much it is, then closing the Far North Line would have no impact on other services.

I don't think any government has ever done either of these two extremes. No government is going to just give the railways money without some conditions as to what they can spend it on, and no government is just going to give the railways the amount of money they request no matter how high it is.

 

[The Ham]

The money doesn’t disappear. Reducing unjustifiable government spending is a good thing. All the “well it’s only £100m” spending quickly adds up……

Government budgets (generally) have to be spent in the year they are allocated. If it's not then the associated budget is cut.

It's very different to a household budget where if you make a saving you can keep it until you want to spend it.

As such, either the DfT spends the money on a know cost (the current rural lines) or it's got to work out exactly how it's going to get the saving and then spend that amount of money within the same year.

If it were an individual, they could (for instance) cut spending on (say) an excessive mobile phone contact (saving £25 a month) and save that money to then buy a new laptop for £600 in 2 years time.

Also, even 100 lots of £100 million is less than 1% of the UK government spend (on the above example of £25/month that would be the savings for someone with a take-home salary of £37,500)

 

[zwk500]

Government budgets (generally) have to be spent in the year they are allocated. If it's not then the associated budget is cut.

This element of public sector funding is among the most insane ways to run things that the UK does.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Cumbrian coast serves several towns of decent size as well as the edges of the Lake district which are popular with tourists in addition to the Sellafield flows so I can't see any proposal for closure seriously advancing. It is however quite staff intensive as it's mostly manual boxes, with several switched out at weekends.

Surprising this line never got RETB*, it would seem a perfect candidate, being very similar in concept to another line different by only one letter (the Cambrian Coast ) which did.

*Radio electronic token block

 

[zwk500]

Surprising this line never got RETB*, it would seem a perfect candidate, being very similar in concept to another line different by only one letter (the Cambrian Coast ) which did.

*Radio electronic token block

It was looked at, but the need for trains to stop at every Token Exchange killed capacity, especially for freight.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It was looked at, but the need for trains to stop at every Token Exchange killed capacity, especially for freight.

Perhaps something similar could be revisited as a means of the line remaining open when Sellafield traffic ends. I guess a form of ETCS by then.

 

[zwk500]

Perhaps something similar could be revisited as a means of the line remaining open when Sellafield traffic ends. I guess a form of ETCS by then.

The obvious solution for 'next-gen' RETB for me is some variation of ETCS that's essentially a L2/L3 hybrid with ERTMS Regional Principles.

Track detection (axle counters) would only be used around junctions, on-train integrity proving and continuous location reporting with passive beacons on the track to verify would handle plain-line sections. Communication between the Trackside equipment and RBC would be via GSM-R/FRMCS (GSM-R's replacement). Level crossings would be a mix of CCTV from the ROC and driver-observed. This would require local power supply for the signalling equipment, and for freight trains an EOT device capable of interacting with the beacons (or Top/Tailing every freight on the line to have a rear loco with ETCS).

 

[Dr Hoo]

The whole Beeching programme was designed around the idea that passengers would railhead to other stations. This largely didn't happen.

This is often said. However I struggle to find that stated in any contemporary document. The narrative in the Reshaping Report seems to accept (complete) loss of contributory revenue rather than expectations of ‘railheading’. Did Dr Beeching ever use the term?

Can you provide some references, please?

Putting nuclear flasks and giant pipes on the A9 helps no-one.

How often do nuclear flask trains operate these days? I thought that most of the material to be dealt with at Sellafield had already been removed.

Ditto with pipes. With the wind-down of North Sea oil and gas exploitation how much new pipeline is needed these days?

 

[HSTEd]

Putting nuclear flasks and giant pipes on the A9 helps no-one.

The new management strategy for Dounreay envisages keeping the vast majority of the remaining radioactive material on site for local disposal. Very little additional material will be removed, in accordance with the demands of the Scottish government.

As for giant pipes...... who is consuming giant pipes in northern scotland these days? With the impending end of the North Sea oil and gas industry there seems precious little need.

 

[Meerkat]

Why is any share dividend paid by a private company from running a public service, better value to me as a passenger than running the service itself.

Why not? Communism fails every time.
The regions of France are begging to be able to franchise their services, and private companies offered massive savings over DB when they were franchised.

 

[yorksrob]

Why not? Communism fails every time.
The regions of France are begging to be able to franchise their services, and private companies offered massive savings over DB when they were franchised.

Late stage capitalism fails currently as well.

The regions of France need to learn all the problems we've had with franchising

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The regions of France are begging to be able to franchise their services, and private companies offered massive savings over DB when they were franchised.

Do you have any links to substantiate those two claims?

 

[The Ham]

Why not? Communism fails every time.
The regions of France are begging to be able to franchise their services, and private companies offered massive savings over DB when they were franchised.

Which has done a better job Network Rail or Rail Track?

OK that maybe too subjective, so let's take an easy to measure variable; how about how long has either lasted?

Also, there's a big difference between the current setup, a significantly more socialist system (such as the Nordic Countries) and communism (like Russia before the collapse of the USSR).

I don't think anyone is suggesting that we move towards everything being so evenly distributed that there's not even a need for the state.

Arguably, the best system is a mix of Socialist State and Capitalism, the difficulty is getting that mix right. Go too far one way and there's no state education and capitalism fails as there's no suitable workers, go the other way to far and there's no private businesses to pay taxes for the services there state provides.

 

[HighlandStorm]

As for giant pipes...... who is consuming giant pipes in northern scotland these days? With the impending end of the North Sea oil and gas industry there seems precious little need.

Here’s a good explanation of where the pipes go. 15km of pipeline is scheduled for launch this year.

Caithness Double-Track Narrow Gauge Line

Did you know? Perhaps you did, but I certainly did not! There is a long length of metre gauge double track railway in Caithness! Perhaps a more significant question might be what the longest thing …

rogerfarnworth.com

Or from Subsea7 themselves:

https://www.subsea7.com/content/dam/subsea7-corporate2018/Datasheets/facilities/Wick.pdf.downloadasset.pdf

 

[Dr Hoo]

The data sheet (from seven years ago?) is interesting but doesn’t really answer the question of what future business levels are likely to be.

Is it the case that all 15km of 2025’s build are being brought in by rail?

 

[MatthewHutton]

How much do those figures include the costs Network Rail incurs in maintaining the lines?

It seems extraordinarily unlikely that Scotrail spends £22m a year running the West Highland and far north lines with £10m of revenue between them and that Network rail is spending ~£80m on top of the access charges keeping the lines open.

Especially when Network rail is only spending £600m-£900m (it is unclear) running the whole network.

 

[Meerkat]

Do you have any links to substantiate those two claims?

https://cerre.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/161206_CERRE_PassRailComp_CaseStudy_Germany.pdf

I can’t seem to copy and paste but on p16 it says that production costs have fallen and DB forced to get better by competitive pressure.
Basically its Unlikely in the long term that a nationalised operator is going to be cheaper on the FNL than a private operator, probably the opposite.
A nationalised bus operator would be much cheaper than the railway though…..

 

[HSTEd]

It seems extraordinarily unlikely that Scotrail spends £22m a year running the West Highland and far north lines with £10m of revenue between them and that Network rail is spending ~£80m on top of the access charges keeping the lines open.

Why not?
The Far North Line and West Highland are around 330 miles of route between them.

They are a significant portion of all route mileage in Scotland

Especially when Network rail is only spending £600m-£900m (it is unclear) running the whole network.

Network Rail spends £1.5bn a year in Scotland alone.

 

[yorksrob]

Which has done a better job Network Rail or Rail Track?

OK that maybe too subjective, so let's take an easy to measure variable; how about how long has either lasted?

Also, there's a big difference between the current setup, a significantly more socialist system (such as the Nordic Countries) and communism (like Russia before the collapse of the USSR).

I don't think anyone is suggesting that we move towards everything being so evenly distributed that there's not even a need for the state.

Arguably, the best system is a mix of Socialist State and Capitalism, the difficulty is getting that mix right. Go too far one way and there's no state education and capitalism fails as there's no suitable workers, go the other way to far and there's no private businesses to pay taxes for the services there state provides.

Exactly, bring back the sectors of Britain. The best attempt at running a railway known.

 

[Transilien]

If the Far North line was to be shut, couldn’t the southern section to Tain be retained as a commuter line to Inverness?

 

[Western Lord]

Though it didn't happen in a very different societal context when it comes to the car. Plenty of people railhead now. I suspect the majority of London commuters drive to the station.

The other thing that was missed was proper bus integration. It was all under the British Transport Commission back then

In 1963 the Transport Holding Company (the state owned successor to the BTC) owned only the former Tilling group bus operators. The rest were privately owned by BET or run by local authorities. It was not until late 1967 that BET sold out to the THC leading to the formation of the National Bus Company.