Should we go back into lockdown at this point?

[Bletchleyite]

As far as I know every confirmed case of reinfection known was asymptomatic.

Has that changed?

Yes, I don't have a reference but there was one case I read about where the reinfection was serious enough to require hospital treatment but the first infection wasn't.

 

[Andyh82]

I considered lockdown to be over when Cummings wasn't sacked.

Do you not feel you are cutting off your nose to spite your face?

Everyone here showing off about how they aren't sticking to the rules only results in the rules lasting longer

Yes you might not agree to the rules but they are more likely to end if people stuck to them

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Sep 2020 ==

I don't have children, and its decades since i was at school, when actually is "half term"?

probably w/c 24th Oct for most schools, could be the week before in some areas

 

[Domh245]

I don't have children, and its decades since i was at school, when actually is "half term"?

Last week of october or thereabouts

 

[Ianno87]

I don't have children, and its decades since i was at school, when actually is "half term"?

In Cambridge it's 26-30th October. Might be different in other places.

 

[birchesgreen]

probably w/c 24th Oct for most schools, could be the week before in some areas

Cheers, hasn't changed much since when i was a schoolkid then, back in the days of chalk slates and rickets

I'm off on leave the week before, hmm

 

[Bletchleyite]

Everyone here showing off about how they aren't sticking to the rules only results in the rules lasting longer

This is false. The rules will continue until a vaccine is available. They are not strict enough to achieve elimination.

 

[HSTEd]

Yes you might not agree to the rules but they are more likely to end if people stuck to them

The rules are never going to end.

This will continue forever.
This is the way we live now.

 

[DB]

Everyone here showing off about how they aren't sticking to the rules only results in the rules lasting longer

Sorry, but youv'e got that the wrong way round - the more the spread is slowed down, the longer it takes to achieve herd immunity and therefore the longer this carries on. Therefore if people behave normally this is likely to shorten how long the rules last.

 

[adc82140]

This is false. The rules will continue until a vaccine is available. They are not strict enough to achieve elimination.

A vaccine isn't a silver bullet

 

[Bletchleyite]

A vaccine isn't a silver bullet

Then as @HSTEd says the rules will not end - ever.

If we want to go for elimination we will need, I reckon, a 2 month full lockdown - i.e. emergency services out only, food parcels delivered.

 

[DB]

A vaccine isn't a silver bullet

Indeed - but a worrying number of people seem to thing that it is, and that as soon as a workable one appears that's the situation over.

 

[NorthOxonian]

This is false. The rules will continue until a vaccine is available. They are not strict enough to achieve elimination.

I wish it would be that quick - but they'll not release the rules until the vaccine has been distributed and used on most of the population. Knowing this government's competence, that would probably be several months after the vaccine is released.

 

[DB]

Then as @HSTEd says the rules will not end - ever.

If we want to go for elimination we will need, I reckon, a 2 month full lockdown - i.e. emergency services out only, food parcels delivered.

They will have to end - if there's no vaccine then the whole situation will probably just fizzle out eventually as herd immunity will be reached naturally. What sort of society will be left by that point is anytbody's guess though!

 

[Ianno87]

Then as @HSTEd says the rules will not end - ever.

If we want to go for elimination we will need, I reckon, a 2 month full lockdown - i.e. emergency services out only, food parcels delivered.

We also need every other country in the world to do the same if it is a single case of Covid. Otherwise, back to square one we go as soon as someone with Covid flies in again....

 

[najaB]

To answer the thread starting question: no. There's no need for a national lockdown at the present time, despite the Government's best efforts to make one inevitable. Readily-available testing, effective track and trace, a well-supported mask mandate and properly resourced NHS would mean that we could handle the increase in case volume without a massive increase in deaths and morbidity. You know, all the things that the first lockdown were supposed to buy us the time to put into place.

 

[Bletchleyite]

We also need every other country in the world to do the same if it is a single case of Covid. Otherwise, back to square one we go as soon as someone with Covid flies in again....

Or we close our borders, with hotel quarantine on arriving back and invasive contact tracing if the odd case pops up.

 

[thejuggler]

Have you seen the Government over the last six months?

So what' is not being understood?

Herd immunity is what keeps most viruses at a relatively low level! Only a minority actually have vaccines.

Herd Immunity is a very specific scientific term relating to vaccinations for viruses which are harmful to the population. By vaccinating the majority the minority are protected from the virus as there are so few people carrying it.

MMR viruses are all vaccinated against at a very young age due to the potential very harmful effects of these viruses.

Chicken Pox isn't vaccinated against universally as there are generally no harmful effects from the virus and a vaccine could cause harm later in life. Herd immunity hasn't eradicated chicken pox.

 

[Andy Pacer]

I think compliance would be limited anyway. People on the whole confirmed to the nationwide lockdown in the spring, but human nature doesn't like backward steps.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

They've just announced something. "Areas of intervention" in the North West, Merseyside, West Yorkshire and the Midlands. Apparently includes a ban on non-essential travel.

There's no real details yet, it's just coming up on BBC News 24 now.


Edited with quote off the BBC website live feed:

The government says there has been "major increases" in Covid-19 cases in "large areas" of north-west England, Yorkshire and "small parts of the Midlands".

In Merseyside, Warrington, Halton and Lancashire (excluding Blackpool and Greater Manchester), from Tuesday 22 September:

• Residents must not socialise with other people outside of their own households or support bubble in private homes and gardens
• Hospitality for food and drink will be restricted to table service only
• Late night operating hours will be restricted, with leisure and entertainment venues including restaurants, pubs, and cinemas, required to close between 22:00 BST to 05:00.

A statement says residents in these areas should only use public transport for "essential purposes" such as travelling to school or work and avoid attending amateur and semi-professional sporting events as spactators.

Separate restrictions are already in place in Bolton and Greater Manchester.

Those who are shielding in parts of north-east Blackburn will no longer need to from 5 October, the statement says.

 

[Ianno87]

Or we close our borders, with hotel quarantine on arriving back and invasive contact tracing if the odd case pops up.

....for how long? Not practical for airlines and travel staff to quarantine after every single trip, for example.

 

[Bletchleyite]

....for how long? Not practical for airlines and travel staff to quarantine after every single trip, for example.

They would remain on the aircraft on the "foreign" side.

 

[MikeWM]

Then as @HSTEd says the rules will not end - ever.

If we want to go for elimination we will need, I reckon, a 2 month full lockdown - i.e. emergency services out only, food parcels delivered.

There's no particular reason to believe that would work, either. There's a famous case of a group of scientists in complete isolation in Antartica who came down with a common cold after *4 months* of no external contact.

 

[HSTEd]

They will have to end - if there's no vaccine then the whole situation will probably just fizzle out eventually as herd immunity will be reached naturally. What sort of society will be left by that point is anytbody's guess though!

At the rates the government is willing to tolerate it will take decades to centuries to reach herd immunity.

 

[Domh245]

Or we close our borders, with hotel quarantine on arriving back and invasive contact tracing if the odd case pops up.

Sounds very expensive, and based on New Zealand's experience, completely impractical. Given that you wouldn't realise a case has managed to spread from a hotel worker to someone else until they become symptomatic, which given the levels of asymptomaticness could be a while, with consequently high numbers of people to invasively trace. Multiply up by the number of hotels being used...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Sep 2020 ==

What sort of society will be left by that point is anytbody's guess though!

Not one I'd be a part of

 

[Bletchleyite]

They've just announced something. "Areas of intervention" in the North West, Merseyside, West Yorkshire and the Midlands. Apparently includes a ban on non-essential travel.

There's no real details yet, it's just coming up on BBC News 24 now.

It sounds like standardising on (a) County level for restrictions, and (b) the same restrictions everywhere (the ones being used in Newcastle). That probably makes some sense.

It sounds very much like the "lockdown" being proposed for the full UK might well follow this pattern.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

It sounds like standardising on (a) County level for restrictions, and (b) the same restrictions everywhere (the ones being used in Newcastle). That probably makes some sense.

I've just edited my post to include a quote off the BBC website live feed.

I agree "same" is logical as opposed to different rules in different places, but I still wonder what the point of kicking the can down the road again is.

 

[Ianno87]

They would remain on the aircraft on the "foreign" side.

How would that work for, say, a 12 hour flight from Hong Kong? You can't fly out and back in a sensible working time, nor can you rest adequately riding "on the cushions"? And if you could, you're essentially doubling the crew requirements for every flight (one active set of crew, one resting)

 

[DB]

At the rates the government is willing to tolerate it will take decades to centuries to reach herd immunity.

Indeed - sooner or later they are going to have to get real about this.

 

[HSTEd]

Indeed - sooner or later they are going to have to get real about this.

Why?
The easiest way for the government to win the next election is to squash seasonal flu and coronavirus by any means necessary. Then demographics win them the election by default.

 

[Bantamzen]

Then as @HSTEd says the rules will not end - ever.

If we want to go for elimination we will need, I reckon, a 2 month full lockdown - i.e. emergency services out only, food parcels delivered.

And the final nail in the economy, millions of people's jobs, and then the virus will still just pop up and start again. Once more, and I don't know why this keeps getting ignored, but in our entire history we have eliminated just 2 viruses. Elimination is not an option, and its about time everyone that needs to gets this in their heads.