Should we go back into lockdown at this point?

[adc82140]

I never thought I'd utter these words but Dan Wootton talls sence on the sun website about a second lockdown

Strange times indeed. I am now finding myself agreeing with my local MP, a permatanned ultra Brexiteer. But he talks sense on all things Covid and is a vocal defender of the supreme role of parliament in making decisions.

 

[najaB]

I'm firmly of the belief that it was well established here even in late December last year, possibly even earlier.

Unless it somehow was less infectious at that point it's unlikely. Exponential growth means that if it was well established in December, case numbers would have exploded in mid-January/early February rather than in March.

How many on here have actually considered that we are possibly in this predicament for 5 years to implement the Great Reset as indicated by the World Economic Forum.

I haven't. But then, I've not yet applied the tinfoil so who knows if my thoughts are my own?

 

[adc82140]

But how many people did have it in Jan/Feb, and put it down to seasonal flu?

 

[DB]

But how many people did have it in Jan/Feb, and put it down to seasonal flu?

Indeed - or thought it was just a cold.

 

[najaB]

But how many people did have it in Jan/Feb, and put it down to seasonal flu?

There will have been some. Simply based on the numbers, we can be pretty sure that it was into community transmission by mid to late February.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I never thought I'd utter these words but Dan Wootton talls sence on the sun website about a second lockdown

If Bozza has lost the support of the Scum, he's doomed. It basically tells a big enough proportion of the population what their opinion should be that it could kill him off.

 

[DB]

If Bozza has lost the support of the Scum, he's doomed. It basically tells a big enough proportion of the population what their opinion should be that it could kill him off.

Indeed. And if the Daily Mail were to turn against him too (the Telegraph already seems to have to an extent) then he will have lost his support base.

 

[nlogax]

Does that mean she is *officially* following an elimination strategy?

Not sure this was ever in doubt. Take one of her more recent speeches, emphasis mine.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/c...date-first-ministers-speech-3-september-2020/

You will recall we try to use the summer period, and did so effectively, to reduce Covid in Scotland to as low a level as possible.

That was because we knew that - as we started to move out of lockdown - there would be more opportunities for the virus to spread. And as happened in other countries we may see cases begin to rise.

By getting it to low levels, and trying to keep overall transmission as low as possible - what I’ve often referred to as our elimination strategy – we then give our Test and Protect teams the best possible chance of identifying local cases and clusters when they do occur and through contact tracing and advising people to isolate where necessary, breaking the chains of transmission.

Most of her recent C19 speeches have included the words 'eliminate' or 'elimination' despite that aim being nigh on impossible.

 

[Class 33]

I never thought I'd utter these words but Dan Wootton talls sence on the sun website about a second lockdown

I can't find this article on there. Can you post a link please?

 

[Jamiescott1]

I can't find this article on there. Can you post a link please?

Boris, don't be bullied into lockdown by Whitty - take a stand like the Swedes

I HAVE no doubt Chris Whitty is a well-meaning bloke who spends every waking hour gripped by a sinking feeling that he’s going to shoulder a large portion of the blame for our early Covid response.…

www.thesun.co.uk

 

[najaB]

Boris, don't be bullied into lockdown by Whitty - take a stand like the Swedes

I HAVE no doubt Chris Whitty is a well-meaning bloke who spends every waking hour gripped by a sinking feeling that he’s going to shoulder a large portion of the blame for our early Covid response.…

www.thesun.co.uk

I find the comparison to Sweden interesting as they have a significantly higher per-captia case rate and only slightly lower per-captia death rate than the UK, despite their much more compliant population and better healthcare system.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed. And if the Daily Mail were to turn against him too (the Telegraph already seems to have to an extent) then he will have lost his support base.

It already has, which is something to write home about - has the Mail ever been anti-Tory in its entire existence?

 

[Ianno87]

It already has, which is something to write home about - has the Mail ever been anti-Tory in its entire existence?

I'm sure it's "claimed" it has influenced a Labour win at least once before?

 

[MikeWM]

I'm sure it's "claimed" it has influenced a Labour win at least once before?

I thought it supported Labour in 1997, but Wikipedia disagrees.

 

[bramling]

I'm sure it's "claimed" it has influenced a Labour win at least once before?

The likes of the Sun will go with whoever they think is going to win. 92 is possibly the most interesting one, as that was genuinely marginal. I’d say most subsequent elections have tended to reflect the public mood fairly accurately.

97 - time for a change and Conservatives need a good kicking
01 - we quite like what we’ve had, so tentatively let’s have more, and the Conservatives still need to get their arse in gear
05 - growing tired now, Conservatives still not good enough
10 - Brown needs a good kicking, but still wary of the Conservatives
15 - Not actually gone too badly, let’s have a bit more of this but not too much
17 - Social care!
19 - Time to get Corbyn off the scene and get Brexit done, Boris seems like the best of an awful line up but we need to throw the dice

I can’t see any of the three papers in question switching to Labour at this time, especially as Labour would probably do more of the same (but hopefully the comms would be better). However there’s definitely going to be some agitation for change within the Conservative party, a lot of people are mightily dissatisfied with how things are at the moment.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Sep 2020 ==

I thought it supported Labour in 1997, but Wikipedia disagrees.

Surely it was the Sun which embraced Blair in 97?

 

[MikeWM]

Surely it was the Sun which embraced Blair in 97?

The Sun definitely did, yes. I have a very clear memory of reading it while sitting on the platform at Didcot Parkway the day they said they were backing him...

But I thought all the papers did in 1997 apart from the Express. Maybe I'm remembering that wrong.

 

[najaB]

Do any newspaper endorsements actually matter? Surely the slant they put on the news in the five years between election campaigns are much more influential than an endorsement made a couple of weeks before the election? If you're a regular reader of the Sun you're not likely to be swung to suddenly think that voting for a Progressive government is a good idea.

 

[Ianno87]

Do any newspaper endorsements actually matter? Surely the slant they put on the news in the five years between election campaigns are much more influential than an endorsement made a couple of weeks before the election? If you're a regular reader of the Sun you're not likely to be swung to suddenly think that voting for a Progressive government.

In the cae of The Sun, it just supports whichever way the wind happens to be blowing and that its readers would've voted anyway.

 

[Journeyman]

But I thought all the papers did in 1997 apart from the Express. Maybe I'm remembering that wrong.

The Express was still supporting Hitler at the time.

 

[Class 33]

New cases today 4,322. Wouldn't be atall surprised if there's an announcement from Boris tonight or within the next few days about this second national lockdown going ahead. Yet he said before a second national lockdown is absolutely ruled out!!!

 

[adc82140]

No there won't be. There is a lag between swab dates and reporting dates. You will notice large fluctuations between days if you look at "by date reported" but if you read back over the last week by "swab date" which is far more accurate, it's been pretty flat.

 

[Huntergreed]

Sturgeon warning that we must take decisive action now and introduce harsher restrictions otherwise it’ll be back to full lockdown in her briefing today.

This isn’t looking good

 

[najaB]

New cases today 4,322. Wouldn't be atall surprised if there's an announcement from Boris tonight or within the next few days about this second national lockdown going ahead.

The total case number doesn't matter as much as the positivity rate does. A lockdown would only be useful if the large case number is due to an increase in positivity rate rather than total number of tests conducted.

 

[bramling]

New cases today 4,322. Wouldn't be atall surprised if there's an announcement from Boris tonight or within the next few days about this second national lockdown going ahead. Yet he said before a second national lockdown is absolutely ruled out!!!

Nothing short of arrest will make me comply this time. The police would certainly have a job.

A relative who works within the NHS tells me she has been told to expect full lockdown by October. Great.

 

[Scotrail12]

If we go into a full lockdown, there's a good chance I'll do something to myself. My mental health is fragile as it is, that would push me over the edge and for what? When people aren't bloody dying...

I've flaming had enough of this sh*t. I tried to be compliant and understanding the first time, that will no longer happen.

For the sake of people's mental health more than anything else, do NOT do another lockdown!!!

 

[birchesgreen]

If we go into a full lockdown, there's a good chance I'll do something to myself. My mental health is fragile as it is, that would push me over the edge and for what? When people aren't bloody dying...

I've flaming had enough of this sh*t. I tried to be compliant and understanding the first time, that will no longer happen.

For the sake of people's mental health more than anything else, do NOT do another lockdown!!!

Unfortunately you arn't alone feeling this way

 

[Andyh82]

I'm not entirely sure why so many are talking about getting rid of this government being a way out of this

Labour are just as likely to introduce the same measures and probably more besides, its not as if they are demanding less measures, they are usually demanding more

 

[Scotrail12]

Unfortunately you arn't alone feeling this way

I know fine well that others feel the same. We're facing a pandemic of mental health issues. It's not just the lockdown, but also knowing what a 2nd one will do to the economy. I'm 18 so I know that it will be my generation picking up the pieces.

 

[najaB]

If we go into a full lockdown, there's a good chance I'll do something to myself. My mental health is fragile as it is, that would push me over the edge and for what? When people aren't bloody dying...

The idea is to keep it that way.

I'm 18 so I know that it will be my generation picking up the pieces.

Even in the worst case scenario (assuming a competent response), the direct economic impact of Covid alone would have taken five maybe ten year's worth of economic damage. You can thank the current lot for making it much worse than it needs to be. Even with them in charge, you are young enough that you'll see the other side of this.

 

[bramling]

I'm not entirely sure why so many are talking about getting rid of this government being a way out of this

Labour are just as likely to introduce the same measures and probably more besides, its not as if they are demanding less measures, they are usually demanding more

I agree getting rid of the government isnt really a solution. Getting rid of Boris might help though. In the longer term society as a whole needs to think hard about what politicians we field and elect, this has really found our politicians to be lacking in ability.