Should we go back into lockdown at this point?

[Mag_seven]

Some of it has been leaked - pubs to table service only and closing at 10pm pretty much confirmed:

What's this thing about table service only when most pubs have put up screens at the bar?

 

[yorkie]

What's this thing about table service only when most pubs have put up screens at the bar?

I guess they are concerned at people mixing near the bar, and not necessarily with interactions between customers & bar staff, but you're right it's all very mixed messaging.

 

[johntea]

Here are the 'guidelines' for Preston, which I assume will be broadly similar for the UK following the announcement

Advice for licensed premises selling alcohol - COVID-19 - Preston City Council

Advice for pubs, clubs, bars and restaurants to consider during COVID-19.

www.preston.gov.uk

Additional restrictions
From Tuesday 22 September additional restrictions will be implemented across Lancashire, including Preston.

These restrictions include new rules which will directly impact local businesses.

This means that:

• Hospitality for food and drink must operate table service only
• Leisure and entertainment venues must close between 10pm and 5am

This page will be updated in greater detail once we have received further information from government.

For the latest restrictions relating to Preston go to the Frequently Asked Questions page.

Public houses, bars and restaurants
Public houses, bars and restaurants are able to open as long as they implement infection control measures, and adhere to local restrictions.

Nightclubs, Dance floors (in premises) and sexual entertainment venues must remain closed.

The government has prepared guidance for Restaurants, Pubs, Bars and Takeaway Services and the visitor economy for Hotels.

Live Entertainment is now permitted in Preston but venues must follow the guidance HM Government Performing Arts.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Am I being naive? Preston is my hometown. What on earth is a sexual entertainment venue? Never knew if they are what I think they maybe existed in Preston.

 

[alxndr]

Am I being naive? Preston is my hometown. What on earth is a sexual entertainment venue? Never knew if they are what I think they maybe existed in Preston.

Strip club/pole dancing/lap dancing etc.

 

[greyman42]

Some of it has been leaked - pubs to table service only and closing at 10pm pretty much confirmed:

So will standing drinking outside the pub still be allowed as is very common in London? And what about pubs that do takeaway drink?

 

[DelayRepay]

I guess they are concerned at people mixing near the bar, and not necessarily with interactions between customers & bar staff, but you're right it's all very mixed messaging.

I think it's mixing at the bar, having a chat on the way to the loos, mixing in the smoking area etc. And maybe it's easier to enforce maximum capacity rules if everyone has to be seated.

It would be nice if the government published some evidence to support the need for restrictions, i.e. what proportion of infections are T&T attributing to pubs? How many pubs have been responsible for spreading infections? What evidence is there that more infections occur after 10pm? I do see the theoretical risks but would like to understand how these are translating into actual numbers.

Many pubs have done an amazing job increasing capacity by using outdoor areas and the nice weather over the last few months has made it pleasant to sit outside. But this will not continue and I wonder if this restriction is partly designed to counter the possibility of more people wanting to be inside the pub during the winter? I also wonder if things like the new football season bringing the potential for crowding have featured in decision making.

 

[The Ham]

During lockdown I made it my mission to do plenty of research on the subject and listen to/watch numerous interviews; I am therefore well equipped to argue against the unknowledgeable lockdown enthusiast brigade

During the first lockdown I could see the logic of having it, however:
- We are currently doing the daily deaths at the same level as when there was significant calls to restart the economy
- We have a better testing system (in that there's a reasonable chance of getting a test for many people) so we are able to identify more people who have it (which should help limit the spread but also identify areas where cases are high)
- The understanding of Covid-19 has improved, including knowing about some treatments which reduce rates of death by 8 for every 100 which are being treated (with the number of deaths being s fraction of that 100) and that we can Benoit from others wearing face masks to limit our chances of being infected.

Combined, I've shifted my view that future national lockdowns are going to be of limited use, unless there's significant cases across the whole country (which certainly isn't the case currently).

It's therefore much better to have general national guidelines which is nationwide and then impose stages of restrictions at local and regional levels depending on the number of cases.

By doing so only those areas which have large numbers of cases see restrictions which may have an economic impact, this incentives everyone to follow the rules as if they don't it could well be their job on the line, that they couldn't go to the pub, that they can't see family, etc.

For those who want to stay cocooned in their homes they'll know the rules that they can follow, which are over and above what they must follow, but for everyone else life returns to something which is much more like normal.

This is important to happen given that the Furlong scheme is ending.

The one thing which should be sticker is the rules on entry to the UK, as I suspect that a lot of cases which we are seeing now are related to those returning from being abroad. It's an areas where the government has been slow in reacting to. Even early on the guidance should have been try and limit the amount of connect you have within 2 weeks of returning to this country regardless of where you've been, including working from home if that's possible and getting food deliveries rather than going into shops.

If that guidance came in back when it was still mostly seen as only in China then I suspect the number of deaths would have been lower, but people would have still have been able to travel and the need for a national lockdown would have been reduced.

 

[Ianno87]

This is important to happen given that the Furlong scheme is ending.

Get the jockeys back to work!

 

[adc82140]

Some of it has been leaked - pubs to table service only and closing at 10pm pretty much confirmed:

Covid: Pubs and restaurants in England to have 10pm closing times

Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove also says that "if people can work from home they should".

www.bbc.co.uk

Not clear if there will be anything else.

Again with the leaks to the media. What is wrong with this government ? Why can a decision not be made and then announced in a timely and appropriate manner. I despair!

 

[SJN]

Some idea of where infections are started

Fewer than 5% of new transmissions linked to restaurants, PHE finds | Catering Today

4.7% of new incidents of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) were linked to food outlets and restaurants in the period between 7 August and 13 September, ac ...

www.cateringtoday.co.uk

 

[Bletchleyite]

So will standing drinking outside the pub still be allowed as is very common in London?

Good question. As that's not in the pub that would surely require a ban on street drinking?

And what about pubs that do takeaway drink?

Takeaways are still allowed.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Sep 2020 ==

Some idea of where infections are started

Fewer than 5% of new transmissions linked to restaurants, PHE finds | Catering Today

4.7% of new incidents of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) were linked to food outlets and restaurants in the period between 7 August and 13 September, ac ...

www.cateringtoday.co.uk

Would love to read that but unfortunately it would require me to consent to a GDPR breach to do so! Perhaps I should report it.

 

[duncanp]

Some idea of where infections are started

Fewer than 5% of new transmissions linked to restaurants, PHE finds | Catering Today

4.7% of new incidents of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) were linked to food outlets and restaurants in the period between 7 August and 13 September, ac ...

www.cateringtoday.co.uk

I do think some people have got it in for the hospitality trade, and pubs in particular.

They seem to make pubs the scapegoat for the increase in infections, whereas the evidence above shows the opposite.

Now that Boris Johnson has leaked announced the fact that pubs in England are going to close at 10pm from Thursday, no doubt Nicola Sturgeon will try to go one better and say that pubs in Scotland must close at 9:30pm, just to be different.

One thing will need to be clarified is whether the 10pm closing time means last orders at 10pm and everyone out of the pub by 10:30pm, or whether 10pm is the time that people must leave the pub, which means last orders at about 9:30pm. Different people seem to have a different opinion on this.

 

[yorksrob]

Some idea of where infections are started

Fewer than 5% of new transmissions linked to restaurants, PHE finds | Catering Today

4.7% of new incidents of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) were linked to food outlets and restaurants in the period between 7 August and 13 September, ac ...

www.cateringtoday.co.uk

Does the article (which we can't read) link to the raw PHE data anywhere ? It would be interesting to see a breakdown of an origin of cases.

 

[SJN]

I’ve got a pic of the PHE pie chart

 

[Bletchleyite]

Be a bit careful with that - that's a pie chart of outbreaks, which consist of a number of related cases, not one-off transmissions.

 

[yorksrob]

I’ve got a pic of the PHE pie chart

Thank you, that's interesting.

I notice it's for the full 37 weeks of the pandemic, so I'm not sure how representative the large care home slice is for the current situation.

That said, it does strongly suggest that hospitality is being scapegoated. It's also only by institution, so there should presumably be a large slice missing which would otherwise represent transmission within the home.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Sep 2020 ==

Be a bit careful with that - that's a pie chart of outbreaks, which consist of a number of related cases, not one-off transmissions.

That might explain why they've only included institutions.

That said, if a setting is prone to outbreaks, one might expect it to be prone to transmission as well.

 

[Freightmaster]

Does the article (which we can't read) link to the raw PHE data anywhere ? It would be interesting to see a breakdown of an origin of cases.

Here you go (page 18):

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/919676/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_38_FINAL_UPDATED.pdf

This section summarises the monitoring of acute respiratory infection incidents and internet based surveillance systems for COVID-19.
...
The number of incidents in each setting with at least one laboratory confirmed case of COVID19 are reported below.

• 313 incidents were from care homes where 228 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 193 incidents were from educational settings where 110 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 110 incidents were from workplace settings where 92 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 57 incidents were from the other settings category where 39 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 34 incidents were from food outlet/restaurant settings where 25 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 18 incidents were from hospitals where 13 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 4 incidents were from prisons where 3 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2

(I have reordered the list so that it is in descending order)


The above figures are certainly an eye opener, especially that care home transmission
is still a major issue six months after the bloodbath in March/April.






MARK

 

[initiation]

Would households count as 'other' or is that not captured here?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Would households count as 'other' or is that not captured here?

It's not captured because this is about outbreaks, not minor cases of transmission, so it will only be institutional.

 

[Scrotnig]

I do think some people have got it in for the hospitality trade, and pubs in particular.

They seem to make pubs the scapegoat for the increase in infections, whereas the evidence above shows the opposite.

Now that Boris Johnson has leaked announced the fact that pubs in England are going to close at 10pm from Thursday, no doubt Nicola Sturgeon will try to go one better and say that pubs in Scotland must close at 9:30pm, just to be different.

One thing will need to be clarified is whether the 10pm closing time means last orders at 10pm and everyone out of the pub by 10:30pm, or whether 10pm is the time that people must leave the pub, which means last orders at about 9:30pm. Different people seem to have a different opinion on this.

They might as well tell them to shut completely. It's going to finish a lot of them off, if not most of them. Especially is (as is likely) this continues over Christmas.

The government have clearly decided that in addition to not wanting an entertainment industry, an events industry, and most of the arts industries, it also doesn't want a hospitality industry either.

I wonder what plans they have for the people who used to work in these industries, once most of them have gone out of business.

 

[geoffk]

Won't pub goers just start an hour earlier?

 

[duncanp]

Won't pub goers just start an hour earlier?

Sshhh!!! Don't tell all the coronaphobes/locktivists/Facebook Karens, otherwise they will lobby for pubs to be open for a maximum of 6 hours per day, or to be shut completely.

 

[MikeWM]

Seems silly (well, *more silly*) to include cinemas in the 10pm 'curfew'. That pretty much stops them fitting in two back-to-back evening shows of most average-length films, which could be the final straw that breaks their back.

 

[duncanp]

Boris Johnson's TV address tonight is at 8pm.

So Nicola Sturgeon just has to be awkward and have her TV address tonight at 8:05pm.

Doesn't she think that people in Scotland (which is part of the UK) might be interested to hear what the Prime Minister of the UK has to say?

Or does she just want to slag Boris off and claim how much better everything would be if Scotland were an independent country? (Can't think why she would want to do that)

 

[Huntergreed]

Boris Johnson's TV address tonight is at 8pm.

So Nicola Sturgeon just has to be awkward and have her TV address tonight at 8:05pm.

Doesn't she think that people in Scotland (which is part of the UK) might be interested to hear what the Prime Minister of the UK has to say?

Or does she just want to slag Boris off and claim how much better everything would be if Scotland were an independent country? (Can't think why she would want to do that)

If that doesn't highlight how she's making this purely political, then nothing will.

 

[brick60000]

Here you go (page 18):

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/919676/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_38_FINAL_UPDATED.pdf

(I have reordered the list so that it is in descending order)


The above figures are certainly an eye opener, especially that care home transmission
is still a major issue six months after the bloodbath in March/April.






MARK

I can't get the list you've quoted to show up unfortunately, I think because its in a quote.

Am I missing something here?

Workplaces, education & care home settings are all way above those cases in other areas. So why are pubs & other hospitality being targeted with very minimal restrictions at best? Doesnt this suggest the issue lies elsewhere, and that such minimal restrictions are going to have very little impact at all on a sector that is contributing relatively little anyway?

If someone has an explanation, I'd be very interested to hear it as I'm genuinely wondering whether I'm missing something glaringly obvious.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Boris Johnson's TV address tonight is at 8pm.

So Nicola Sturgeon just has to be awkward and have her TV address tonight at 8:05pm.

Doesn't she think that people in Scotland (which is part of the UK) might be interested to hear what the Prime Minister of the UK has to say?

Or does she just want to slag Boris off and claim how much better everything would be if Scotland were an independent country? (Can't think why she would want to do that)

Tbh I don't see the problem there.
Whilst Boris is PM of the UK, any restrictions or changes he announces are just relating to England, not the rest of the UK.

 

[duncanp]

So why are pubs & other hospitality being targeted with very minimal restrictions at best?

Because cases of the "terrible virus" (to use Matt Hancock's words) are increasing and we must do something.

Closing pubs at 10pm is something, therefore we must do it.

 

[takno]

Boris Johnson's TV address tonight is at 8pm.

So Nicola Sturgeon just has to be awkward and have her TV address tonight at 8:05pm.

Doesn't she think that people in Scotland (which is part of the UK) might be interested to hear what the Prime Minister of the UK has to say?

Or does she just want to slag Boris off and claim how much better everything would be if Scotland were an independent country? (Can't think why she would want to do that)

It's handy because it means you can ignore them both at the same time. I might even go to the pub to ignore them, since even if they do put them on the telly there they won't be allowed to put the sound on....