Study to consider Borders Railway extension

[najaB]

I have no great knowledge of this area but some people are judging the proposal purely on things as they are, whereas this line would presumably trigger housing developments and new patterns of behaviour.

There are several hundreds (thousands?) of housing plots already planned for closer to Edinburgh that developers haven't yet brought to fruition, so I scarcely imagine that there would be significant demand for any development many miles further away.

 

[gingerheid]

The projections for the build up of traffic on Borders to the modelled expectation were rather conservative - IIRC they expected it to take 3 years before the ‘normal’ level of traffic would be achieved. In practice it was less than 3 months, no doubt helped by about 50,000 track bashers with highlighter pens. Growth since that first year has broadly followed similar railways elsewhere.

I have this lingering suspicion that the Borders, Alloa and Ebbw Vale lines could be doing ever so much better if the way of dealing with higher than expected demand hadn't been to just wait until people got fed up trying

 

[A0wen]

I have this lingering suspicion that the Borders, Alloa and Ebbw Vale lines could be doing ever so much better if the way of dealing with higher than expected demand hadn't been to just wait until people got fed up trying

Not sure your logic makes sense.

There are two factors - firstly the "novelty" factor which wears off quite quickly. The trackbashers Bald Rick alludes to being a case in point - they travelled from far and wide to cover the line once. They won't do it again.

The other factor is how good the forecasting was of what usage would be once the novelty had worn off.

Perhaps if the track bashers and rivet counters didn't all rush to a new line like flies around a dog's output within it's first 5 minutes of opening, it would be easier to understand the real demand?

 

[Starmill]

The track bashing numbers aren't actually significant. What was however significant in the case of the Borders was that someone at ScotRail set up tickets for £1 from Tweedbank to East Kilbride / Wick / Nairn and other places, and tens of thousands of those were sold.

 

[Bald Rick]

The track bashing numbers aren't actually significant.

I was perhaps being a little provocative. I agree that the number of people doing it specifically to colour in their atlases will be relatively small.

However there are quite a number of people who will have gone on the line to ‘have a look’ / ‘try it out’ / ‘see what the fuss is about’ etc., and probably won’t do so again. I know about 30 people myself who have done it, all in the first year, and none to my knowledge have been back.

I also agree that the promotional fare will have brought in a good number of people.

 

[Kingston Dan]

If so they failed utterly with those projections as the car park was overflowing from the start and had to be extended after only two years.

One of the reasons for the popularity of Tweedbank is it's the start of the line so the chances of getting a seat are better. I've only once had to stand all the way from Tweedbank to Waverley but have had to do this several times from Gala, so like many others I'll drive to Tweedbank rather than walk in to Gala to get the train.

Pre covid the overcrowding was finally easing with more 170s including some 6 car in the peaks and more 4 car 158s at other times. Anecdotally it was easy to see the increase in Midlothian passengers as a result.
I've only been on one trip this year. The return was a 2 car 158 from Waverley, crush loaded, no revenue collection. Unfortunately I'd bought a ticket online. Back to the bad old days.

I think that's also the reason for the Midlothian stations performing worse in the first year or so than the projections - there were many stories of overcrowding and people unable to get seats as the 2 coach trains were full on leaving Gala.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

From a previous life , it is incredibly difficult to properly evaluate growth or usage on new lines. (or even new services)

Yes there are complex demand models you can build , based on demographics , trip rates , underlying economic and planning assumptions and deliverables. A micro industry here , and well established.

I can say not much more than that, though there have been various "surprises" over the years - mentioned before how the "model" for Llantwit Major to Bridgend was hopelessly inaccurate (estimated 3 passengers a train - reality was about 20+ average , thanks to a cheap zonal fare !) , and "railheading" into various new services can be difficult to estimate.

However a baseload of indiginous population is more than helpful. It helps not to have a population desert for example , likewise densely populated areas with a low propensity to travel can equally challenging.

 

[92002]

I think that's also the reason for the Midlothian stations performing worse in the first year or so than the projections - there were many stories of overcrowding and people unable to get seats as the 2 coach trains were full on leaving Gala.

Most Tweedbank services are now 3 or 4 car trains at the peaks. With odd 2 car trains at the quiet times.

Similarly Dunbar or North Berwick trains are 6 cars at the peaks and 3 or 4 car at the quieter times of day.

 

[Starmill]

Most Tweedbank services are now 3 or 4 car trains at the peaks. With odd 2 car trains at the quiet times.

Similarly Dunbar or North Berwick trains are 6 cars at the peaks and 3 or 4 car at the quieter times of day.

That is generally the case yes, but going into the future with a three or four car train once per hour is not actually preferable to a two car train twice per hour.

 

[92002]

That is generally the case yes, but going into the future with a three or four car train once per hour is not actually preferable to a two car train twice per hour.

Guess we cross that bridge when the need arises. There are timetable plans in place to run more Tweedbank line trains to turn short for growth. Providing a limited stop service. When they are needed. As well as electrification of the line which will be at least 3 or 4 car trains.

Similarly more plans for trains when the Reston and East Linton stations open. These are to be 5 car TPE trains. Giving a service to stations to Newcastle as well.

 

[Starmill]

Guess we cross that bridge when the need arises. There are timetable plans in place to run more Tweedbank line trains to turn short for growth. Providing a limited stop service. When they are needed. As well as electrification of the line which will be at least 3 or 4 car trains.

Similarly more plans for trains when the Reston and East Linton stations open. These are to be 5 car TPE trains. Giving a service to stations to Newcastle as well.

In general you don't encourage growth by halving your timetable frequency. Although you might halve your timetable frequency because you've got little money and you are desperate to cut opex.

 

[92002]

In general you don't encourage growth by halving your timetable frequency. Although you might halve your timetable frequency because you've got little money and you are desperate to cut opex.

Which halving of frequency are you on about. Tweedbank trains would still be hourly but go to limited stop and the short turned new trains doing all stations.

The additional trains on the Reston and East Linton Station openings are just that. Additional trains with a service to Newcastle too.

 

[Starmill]

Which halving of frequency are you on about. Tweedbank trains would still be hourly but go to limited stop and the short turned new trains doing all stations.

The additional trains on the Reston and East Linton Station openings are just that. Additional trains with a service to Newcastle too.

Tweedbank trains were 2tph Monday - Saturday from opening to early 2020. Now 1tph for the foreseeable future, except one extra peak flow service. Hence halving of frequency.

 

[92002]

Tweedbank trains were 2tph Monday - Saturday from opening to early 2020. Now 1tph for the foreseeable future, except one extra peak flow service. Hence halving of frequency.

Think there was a bit of a pandemic and no customers. So Scotrail are matching trains to customers. No sense in running trains full of no passengers and fresh air. They will no doubt return to more trains when the customers are seen to be coming back. The current service is what has been funded by the Scottish Government which is under regular review.

 

[najaB]

Tweedbank trains were 2tph Monday - Saturday from opening to early 2020. Now 1tph for the foreseeable future, except one extra peak flow service. Hence halving of frequency.

Hmm... can't think of any non-rail reason why that might have happened.

As an aside, I wonder what impact increased working from home will have on passenger numbers going forwards.

 

[Starmill]

Think there was a bit of a pandemic and no customers. So Scotrail are matching trains to customers. No sense in running trains full of no passengers and fresh air. They will no doubt return to more trains when the customers are seen to be coming back. The current service is what has been funded by the Scottish Government which is under regular review.

It is proposed that it won't be returning to 2tph. That's what I was saying in #759.

 

[WesternBiker]

As an aside, I wonder what impact increased working from home will have on passenger numbers going forwards.

That's germane in this case, as (according to the survey mentioned above) 45% of journeys were for work, and the majority of those commuting. The Borders area strikes me as perfect 'telecommuting' territory. As with the rest of the country, we'll have to see what happens. Recent trips around here (south-west London) suggests passengers are returning but not to the same level in the peaks - standing room only at rush hour, but not the crush-loading that was normal before.

 

[haggishunter]

Hmm... can't think of any non-rail reason why that might have happened.

As an aside, I wonder what impact increased working from home will have on passenger numbers going forwards.

But why does the issue of peak time commuting not returning to pre pandemic levels mean cutting the daytime non peak service in half?

Leading up to opening I recall a lot was made about the need for an half hourly service to drive demand and modal shift, that the line could not reach its potential with just an hourly service.

What’s the actual cost saving of a 4 car 158 every hour vs a 2 car 158 every 30 minutes? Or could it even be revenue loss due to frequency reduction is greater than the saving?

I’ve no idea what sort of numbers are involved here, so if anyone can add some informed figures to this debate great!

 

[92002]

But why does the issue of peak time commuting not returning to pre pandemic levels mean cutting the daytime non peak service in half?

Leading up to opening I recall a lot was made about the need for an half hourly service to drive demand and modal shift, that the line could not reach its potential with just an hourly service.

What’s the actual cost saving of a 4 car 158 every hour vs a 2 car 158 every 30 minutes? Or could it even be revenue loss due to frequency reduction is greater than the saving?

I’ve no idea what sort of numbers are involved here, so if anyone can add some informed figures to this debate great!

A good start could be the saving of a crew of a driver and conductor.

Current demand in the off peak does not need any more of a service. It's not just a Borders line problem, its quite a National issue.

 

[Bald Rick]

What’s the actual cost saving of a 4 car 158 every hour vs a 2 car 158 every 30 minutes? Or could it even be revenue loss due to frequency reduction is greater than the saving?

Back of fag packet, but if this is off peak only Mon - Friday it will probably save something like two diagrams of crew, which with relevant cover ratios means it will save (perhaps) 2 drivers and 2 conductors. That’s about £3-400,000 per year in terms of cost to the railway.

I’d be surprised if the M-F off peak revenue was that much, to be honest.

 

[HSTEd]

I’d be surprised if the M-F off peak revenue was that much, to be honest.

But then we get into the argument about whether cutting frequencies at some times of day might lead to chain reactions of people becoming less reliant on the train etc.

Sometimes you have to operate on a loss to make the service attractive to use at other times.

Given how much is blown by the railway on studies on reopenings or other silliness, this seems rather penny wise and pound foolish.

Ofcourse if we were to embrace the forbidden staffing acronym, the cost saving would be further reduced.

 

[snowball]

So Tweedbank don't want to Carlisle and Ricardon (Spelling?) don't want to go to Edinburgh then? If there is nothing between Carlisle and Tweedbank / Hawick just build a 'fast' railway without stations then!

There is already a fast railway between Carlisle and Edinburgh. It goes via Lockerbie and Carstairs.

 

[Bald Rick]

Sometimes you have to operate on a loss to make the service attractive to use at other times.

Strictly speaking in this case (and most others), you operate at a significant loss at some times to help limit the losses at other times.

However it is fair to say that operators will know in some detail loading and revenue of their services on a train by train basis. They will know what the revenue at risk is.

Completely separately, on my two trips on the Borders line - one each way, both weekday off peak middle of the day - the number of passengers on board departing / arriving Edinburgh was <20.

 

[najaB]

Completely separately, on my two trips on the Borders line - one each way, both weekday off peak middle of the day - the number of passengers on board departing / arriving Edinburgh was <20.

I've experienced larger higher numbers than that. Though that was during the summer, don't know when your trips were.

 

[Bald Rick]

I've experienced larger higher numbers than that. Though that was during the summer, don't know when your trips were.

late June, Scottish schools were on holiday

 

[EveningStar]

I’m confused about the whole thing! Some very gymnastic use of evidence, some might even say dubious.

Quite. As a railway enthusiast, reinstating the Waverley Route would be lovely. However, the case presented was enthusiasm rather than substance. What worried me was that I was previously prepared to say Hawick was a logical extension, and even that case looks unpromising on the evidence presented.

 

[Kingston Dan]

Quite. As a railway enthusiast, reinstating the Waverley Route would be lovely. However, the case presented was enthusiasm rather than substance. What worried me was that I was previously prepared to say Hawick was a logical extension, and even that case looks unpromising on the evidence presented.

The report was utterly flawed - starting from the flawed premise of the 'Borderlands' entity which I think was dreamed up by the then Tory MP Rory Stewart as a way of opposing Scottish independence and raising his profile in Tory leadership contests. The idea that Stranraer shares some sort of natural affinity with Stannington or Sellafield with Stow is nonsensical.

I'm pretty sure the railway will get to Hawick as it is a political and social priority and there will be a more sensible feasibility study outlining the case without trying to use it to try to make a failied wider geo-political point.