Super Thursday - Elections 2021

[GusB]

Massive swing to the Conservatives in a seat that was not expected to be competitive, Banffshire and Buchan Coast.

It's no great surprise to me. It was a strong leave area where the Tories made gains in the UK election. It will be interesting to see what happens with the list vote. Other rural Aberdeenshire seats may be close this time around and, of course I expect my own constituency to be a fairly tight race.

 

[DarloRich]

The Tees Valley Mayoralty has declared. Ben Houchen held on with just 77% of the vote. FFS. Paging @ainsworth74

Conservative vote share up 33.3% Labour down by 11.8% on 34% turnout.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Random thought: As a country, are we just turning into a polarised, pseudo-two-party system? One the one side the Tories, on the other side everybody else. And the Tories win by virtue of the 'everybody else' vote being split.

I think it is far more complex than that. It is easy to lump the Tories into one box but they really aren't all the same, and it is easy to forget that they very nearly tore themselves apart over Brexit too. It also still does hugely depend on where you live too!

 

[HSTEd]

I don't think we can say the current Conservative party is really a continuation of CAmeron's Conservative government from before the referendum.

It's something substantially different.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

That is your choice and I try hard not to criticise people for expressing their democratic right even if it isn't choice I could make. Personally, I would have spoiled my paper. I have never voted Tory and I never will.

I also find their leader repellent and unfit to lead but none of that seems to matter these days. Despite everything we know about Johnson; his behavior, his character, his idleness, his indolence, his mentality, his cronyism, his disregard for the rules he expects us to follow, his history as a proven liar and a philanderer people line up to lick his boots. People seem to think he is a "top bloke". I don't understand this country. I really don't. How can people look at that and think: yep, he is the man for me!

The funny thing is - the bit I've bolded really captures one reason why Labour keep losing - even though I think you meant it in a somewhat different way. If you want to win elections, it really helps if you understand the electorate. And I would say most of the Labour Party no longer understands what motivates a large portion of the electorate.

 

[al78]

Random thought: As a country, are we just turning into a polarised, pseudo-two-party system? One the one side the Tories, on the other side everybody else. And the Tories win by virtue of the 'everybody else' vote being split.

Democracies with a first past the post system trend towards a two party system over time. Problem is, voting for a minority party makes it more likely one of the major parties will gain power, so what people will tend to do is vote for a bigger party which has the best chance of knocking out the big party they don't like. You ultimately end up with a two horse race with a cluster of insignificants.

It's explained here:

Criticism of the UK election results (from a few years ago) here:

 

[nlogax]

If you want to win elections, it really helps if you understand the electorate. And I would say most of the Labour Party no longer understands what motivates a large portion of the electorate.

Judging by the electorate we have to assume that a large portion of people want inward-looking, corrupt and cronyism-fuelled politicians who are only out for themselves and their rich friends and who are content to win over poorer regions of the country just by waving a few flags and peddling the utterly undeliverable to all.

I guess Labour will need to do that too, just bigger.

 

[ainsworth74]

The Tees Valley Mayoralty has declared. Ben Houchen held on with just 77% of the vote. FFS. Paging @ainsworth74

Conservative vote share up 33.3% Labour down by 11.8% on 34% turnout.

Well. I expected him to win it comfortably. But 77%?!?

 

[yorksrob]

Yes the Tories are much more likely to get behind their leader and suck up their differences; and they can be brutal but swift when they decide a change is in order. Labour unfortunately ever since Blair (maybe Brown) have had these differences spill out. If we had PR in this country Labour would probably be 2 parties, the Tories maybe even 3.

To be honest, the Tory backbenchers seem to have been the ones holding the Government to account as far as I can see.

 

[nlogax]

Well. I expected him to win it comfortably. But 77%?!?

Don't panic!

It was actually only 73%.

 

[Horizon22]

To be honest, the Tory backbenchers seem to have been the ones holding the Government to account as far as I can see.

True but it always seems to be in a more respectful and formal manner (i.e by being backbenchers and through parliament) yet Labour recently appear to struggle to stop these spewing out into public although that may be more their activists to be far. But Tory activists are still surprising loyal to whomever the current leadership is!

 

[ainsworth74]

Don't panic!

It was actually only 73%.

Oh well that's much closer to what I was expecting

 

[squizzler]

I live in Jersey, Channel Islands. I think the French pulled a blinder by choosing to blockade our port on the day of the elections, as they ensured the most useful idiot (for them that is, not us or the UK) would have their political capital bolstered.

The EU and France run rings round Boris and his crew, every time. It is in their best interest to ensure he remains at the helm (excuse maritime metaphors).

 

[yorksrob]

True but it always seems to be in a more respectful and formal manner (i.e by being backbenchers and through parliament) yet Labour recently appear to struggle to stop these spewing out into public although that may be more their activists to be far. But Tory activists are still surprising loyal to whomever the current leadership is!

Loyal but lethal, if they feel the PM is due a visit from "the men in grey suits".

 

[Horizon22]

Loyal but lethal, if they feel the PM is due a visit from "the men in grey suits".

Yes as I said upthread, they can be brutal when they think the time has come!

 

[Darandio]

Well. I expected him to win it comfortably. But 77%?!?

That bloke won't get through his front door tonight, his head will be so big.

I look forward to his next newsletter, the last one had his face 11 times in 8 A5 pages, he'll blow that out of the water next time.

 

[WelshBluebird]

I don't think we can say the current Conservative party is really a continuation of CAmeron's Conservative government from before the referendum.

It's something substantially different.

And that probably part of why they haven't had the usual "incumbent government" issue a lot of governments see with local elections! They are a different beast to the one that was in place for the last council elections.

The funny thing is - the bit I've bolded really captures one reason why Labour keep losing - even though I think you meant it in a somewhat different way. If you want to win elections, it really helps if you understand the electorate. And I would say most of the Labour Party no longer understands what motivates a large portion of the electorate.

The thing is, I am not sure you can really blame Labour that much for it.
Things that have taken down governments in the past don't seem to touch the Tories at the moment.

 

[swt_passenger]

Judging by the electorate we have to assume that a large portion of people want inward-looking, corrupt and cronyism-fuelled politicians who are only out for themselves and their rich friends and who are content to win over poorer regions of the country just by waving a few flags and peddling the utterly undeliverable to all.

I guess Labour will need to do that too, just bigger.

Wave a few red flags and peddle the undeliverable to all? See also Jeremy Corbyn...

 

[DerekC]

The funny thing is - the bit I've bolded really captures one reason why Labour keep losing - even though I think you meant it in a somewhat different way. If you want to win elections, it really helps if you understand the electorate. And I would say most of the Labour Party no longer understands what motivates a large portion of the electorate.

Well, come on then @DynamicSpirit - what motivates a large proportion of the electorate??

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Judging by the electorate we have to assume that a large portion of people want inward-looking, corrupt and cronyism-fuelled politicians who are only out for themselves and their rich friends and who are content to win over poorer regions of the country just by waving a few flags and peddling the utterly undeliverable to all.

I guess Labour will need to do that too, just bigger.

And I should've added something like - and even worse, having not understood what many voters want, too many on the left and in the Labour Party then make the problem worse by insulting the voters, and making out there's something morally deficient about them because they haven't voted Labour[*] - instead of trying to understand why those voters didn't want to or didn't feel able to support Labour.

[*] Which by the way, is strangely enough exactly what the post I'm replying to does.

 

[nlogax]

Wave a few red flags and peddle the undeliverable to all? See also Jeremy Corbyn...

Quite. Admittedly he was rarely in danger of assuming power.

And I should've added something like - and even worse, having not understood what many voters want, too many on the left and in the Labour Party then make the problem worse by insulting the voters, and making out there's something morally deficient about them because they haven't voted Labour[*] - instead of trying to understand why those voters didn't want to or didn't feel able to support Labour.

[*] Which by the way, is strangely enough exactly what the post I'm replying to does.

You seem to have swerved the facetious nature of my reply and taken it literally. Well done.

What is it you think voters want? Because I genuinely can't tell, and I've read enough voter opinions to stretch from here to Mars. I still can't figure out why they'd choose the incumbent corruption mob over a group of (on the whole) decent and well meaning politicians.

Or maybe voters are put off by the stink of the idea of the Labour party becoming permanently unelectable? It's chicken and egg.

 

[brad465]

And I should've added something like - and even worse, having not understood what many voters want, too many on the left and in the Labour Party then make the problem worse by insulting the voters, and making out there's something morally deficient about them because they haven't voted Labour[*] - instead of trying to understand why those voters didn't want to or didn't feel able to support Labour.

[*] Which by the way, is strangely enough exactly what the post I'm replying to does.

I'm not condoning those you refer too who insult others, but that behaviour not limited to that part of the Labour party, or even this country; anyone calling them "Lefties, remoaners, woke, etc." is also as guilty. The problem of course is the media can make a bigger issue of insults from the former group, not the latter, and at the same time they along with politicians have created deep divisions that are behind the nastiness of the last 5+ years. Trying to educate pragmatism needs to be done, as well as finding a way of calling out those entities that are dividing society for their own gain and creating the divided culture in the process.

Of course when I say it's not limited to this country, Trump managed to get elected in part by opposing supporters calling Trump supporters racist and other things that are weak and judgemental, even if they are in some cases true. Thankfully that behaviour either improved and/or was less of an issue to the point that he was removed from office 4 years later.

 

[HSTEd]

The problem Starmer has, and Corbyn had in 2019, is he has no actual vision to explain why he wants the things he wants.

In 2017 Corbyn had a vision and policies that flowed naturally from that vision.

In 2019 he had a random grab bag of policies that looked expensive, and worse, made no sense in the context of any coherent vision.

Labour needs to go back to the beginning, ask "what do we want", preferably in a form that can be expressed in a sentence, at least in the outline of terms, and then build on that.

Like "Building bridges of understanding across the United Kingdom" or something

 

[swt_passenger]

Corbyn being reported on the BBC live feed as still saying his 2019 policies were popular…

 

[75A]

Corbyn being reported on the BBC live feed as still saying his 2019 policies were popular…

They were with the BBC and small parts of London,

 

[nlogax]

Trying to educate pragmatism needs to be done, as well as finding a way of calling out those entities that are dividing society for their own gain and creating the divided culture in the process.

I would suggest we are as far as we could ever be from enabling widespread pragmatism in this country. The last five years have seen to that.

 

[Iskra]

Judging by the electorate we have to assume that a large portion of people want inward-looking, corrupt and cronyism-fuelled politicians who are only out for themselves and their rich friends and who are content to win over poorer regions of the country just by waving a few flags and peddling the utterly undeliverable to all.

I guess Labour will need to do that too, just bigger.

I don't think the Conservatives are popular, just that Labour are deeply unpopular.

Labour no longer attempts to represent the working man (person), which it was formed to do. That's a lot of potential votes they are missing out on. They won't be winning any elections until they can reconcile those voters.

 

[Horizon22]

I don't think the Conservatives are popular, just that Labour are deeply unpopular.

Labour no longer attempts to represent the working man (person), which it was formed to do. That's a lot of potential votes they are missing out on.

I also think there's a core, fundamental problem of not knowing what the working man wants. The dynamic has shifted significantly in the last decade or so and Labour haven't adapted. It's quite a big question to ask, and I wouldn't want to be in Labour's shoes to try and address it; obviously they can't just become like Tories but at the same time they can't just lurch to populism either. And they're torn between two sides of the left in the party about that direction.

Saying that all of Europe has suffered with a demise in "social democratic" parties the last 5 years which might point to a wider cultural issue

 

[Butts]

Leanne Wood ex Plaid Cymru leader loses The Rhondda to Labour.

Conservatives complete the eradication of The Liberal Democrats in Wales - Lloyd George must be turning in his grave.

 

[birchesgreen]

The turnout in Hartlepool and the Teeside Mayoralty was rather poor, is this a case of Labour voters not bothering to vote than anything else?

What does the "working man" want? Well I dunno what do we want? Ask 10 different people and you'll probably get 10 different and often contradictory things!