The other thing I've noticed is that during the strike days they are not running a leaf fall timetable. Are the leaves on strike too?!
The above changes on SWT metro services were scheduled to take place over 20 years ago anyway , had Stagecoach not then allowed themselves to be completely outmanoeuvred by the unions on these issues to a level they’d never have even considered entertaining anywhere in their bus industry.The bottom line of the dispute is that SWR will roster a 2nd member of crew on every train, but want to run trains without a 2nd member if the situation dictates (ala Southern style OBS), RMT want a Guard trained 2nd of crew on every service and that difference is what is driving this dispute.
The bottom line of the dispute is that SWR will roster a 2nd member of crew on every train, but want to run trains without a 2nd member if the situation dictates (ala Southern style OBS), RMT want a Guard trained 2nd of crew on every service and that difference is what is driving this dispute.
Even on Saturdays SWR currently run a leaf fall timetable.It's a Saturday service, so headways are significantly increased and probably don't call for the additional time needed for leaf-fall conditions.
I have a question, the RMT are saying no to any services being run as DOO. Would that still be their stance if SWR put a limit on the number of services, maybe saying "we'll ensure than no more than (say) 1 in 500 of our services (where they have about 1,700 services a day) would be run without a 2nd member of staff with anything beyond that resulting in cancelled trains"? It would probably need to be based on a rolling month basis, so as stop them banking loads and then announcing full DOO and being able to ride out the strikes but giving them the flexibility to cover for events such as a number of guards getting the flu all in the same week.
It could also allow them to cancel trains during quiet periods and then keeping services running in the peaks or the last trains at night (it could allow them to move trains out of platforms at Waterloo in the peaks so as to not disrupt other services which would otherwise have to be cancelled if a train is blocking a platform due to lack of staff).
Yes it could still be seen as the thin edge of the wedge, but then continuing to object to that could be seen as fairly unreasonable in the eyes of the public especially if the public was sold the view that "The TOC is only doing this to ensure that we provide you with a good service and you don't have to suffer cancelled trains just because the preceding service had an issue on it resulting in a guard being late to the station for your service". Of course there would be other ways to spin the reason, but most customers don't worry too much about where their money ends up as long as the trains that they "have paid for" turn up on time and they are not inconvenienced very much.
SWR state
https://www.southwesternrailway.com/plan-my-journey/rmt-strike
So if they are rostering a guard on every train, what is changing? Is it just that in times of disruption they won't roster a Guard?
It would have been more helpful as a passenger if they had stated what is changing.
As an example if we assume (all figures are arbitrary but are possible figures)
- 1 train in 100 being DOO (due to staff not being available for that journey, be that due to other delays, staff sickness, or whatever other reason that is) with an average load of 100 people
- 1 in 5 million rate of accidents for DOO passengers
- 1 in 6 million rate of accidents for passengers with a guard on board
Based on 1.7 billion passenger movements a year nationally that would equate to the difference if we moved to DOO vs guards on every train would mean the difference between 340 incidents and 283 incidents. However, if the proposed was brought in it would be the difference between 286 and 283 incidents (assuming 1/100th of all passengers being on DOO trains with all others being on trains with guards vs all trains having a guard)
However even the above is flawed as there isn't enough data to have a clear figure for rates of accidents, the last data I saw from TfL had it that the accident rate for trains on part of the London Overground network as higher than that for the rest of the network where DOO was being use (IIRC one rate was 1 in 8 million). However even then that TfL data could be wrong as just one indecent could then skew the figures one way or the other (for instance guards have an incident near the start of the time period having been safe for 10 million journeys previously whilst DOO has an indecent just before the start of the time period and then run for 8 million journeys before having another and then guards having another incident after 10 million journeys and then the time period ends. That results in 2 in a 12 million time period for guards whilst the DOO would be recorded as only having 1 in that 12 million range).
In 2013, shortly before the rest of London Overground went over to DOO, TfL stated:
"On the East London Line, which uses driver only operation, the rate of door incidents is one for every 7 million passengers. This compares to the section of the network which currently uses conductors, where the rate of door incidents is one for every 4 million passengers."
The above stats were probably derived from multiple years of data. However, even they were obtained from only one year then there would have been sufficient data, given that London Underground carried 135 million passengers during 2013-14.
Furthermore, the figures would not have been skewed materially by a single incident or even a pair of incidents. For example, let's consider how the rates would have changed if during the year there been an extra door related incident on a DOO operated service and one of the incidents on a conductor worked service had not occurred. If around a third of the trains had been DOO there would have been around ((1/3) * 135)/7 = 6.4 door-related incidents that year on DOO services and ((2/3)*(135))/4 = 22.5 incidents on non-DOO services. If there had been one extra incident on a DOO service the DOO rate would have increased to 1 in 6.1 million and if there had been one less incident on a non-DOO service that rate would have decreased to 1 in 4.2 million. Therefore, even with this "what if" assessment of a potential skewing of the rates the non-DOO rate of incidents would still have been substantially higher (worse) than the DOO rate.
The extra three minutes on the Reading line is timetabled at weekends as well. I was surprised not to see it taken account of.It's a Saturday service, so headways are significantly increased and probably don't call for the additional time needed for leaf-fall conditions.
Given that there's no end in sight for any of the guards' disputes it seems quite likely to me that it could go on for a very long time. What is different is the apparent level of service that SWR is able to cover on strike days. We shall obviously have to see how that pans out in practice.Is anyone willing to stick their neck out and predict whether this dispute on SWR is going to become as bad as the GTR Southern dispute?
Is anyone willing to stick their neck out and predict whether this dispute on SWR is going to become as bad as the GTR Southern dispute?
The way you are talking you would think that cancellations due to a guard being unavailable are rife. The company have given the RMT a figure for the percentage of trains cancelled because no guard was available, it is 0.17%. In the grand scheme of things that's nothing. I wonder how many trains the company have allowed to be cancelled due to the next weeks strikes, and how many years it would take for that number of trains to be cancelled for lack of guard in normal circumstances.
A strike by workers on South Western Railway will go ahead next week after talks to resolve a dispute over the role of guards broke down on Thursday.
The strike is part of a fresh wave of travel misery set to hit passengers from south-west London on November 8 and 9.
Members of the Rail, Maritime and Transport union will walk out for 48 hours, causing disruption to services.
The union said it asked South Western Railway management to guarantee a safety critical guard on trains
RMT General Secretary Mick Cash said in a message to members: "The union proposed to the company that they adopt the model agreed on Abellio Scotrail.
"Which is:-
South Western Railway run around 600,000 trains a year with guards guaranteed on each train.
- Guarantee a guard on every new electrified train.
- Guarantee that the conductor will retain their full competency (rules, track safety, evacuation).”
Mr Cash said the company want to change this so that they can run trains without a guard.
He added: "When asked why they want to change the arrangements when there is nothing wrong with the current ones, they said it does not deliver the best customer outcome.
"They state that about 1,000 or 0.17 per cent of the current trains do not run due to the non-availability of a guard.
"We do not know the figure for non-availability of drivers but we have said that we are prepared to sit down and discuss ways to ensure that guards are available to ensure trains are not cancelled."
A South Western Railway spokesman said: "We are disappointed that despite re-stating all our previous commitments that we will have more jobs not less, that we plan to retain a second person on every train, and guaranteeing salaries and terms and conditions, the union executive is going ahead with this unnecessary strike which will damage both our passengers and staff."
The train company had previously said it aims to run more than 60 per cent of its normal train services on the two days of the strike.
Strikes will also be held by workers at Southern, Greater Anglia, Merseyrail and Arriva Rail North in similar disputes.
Talks between the union and Arriva will be held on Friday.
The RSSB says it has undertaken research over the last 15 years on DOO on passenger trains, and is yet to find any increased risk when dispatching a train without a guard being present.
“Our conclusions from the latest analysis are that there is no discernible difference in the risk associated with driver-only dispatch vs driver and guard dispatch,” adds Bearfield. “There is no such thing as absolute safety, you cannot remove all risk. We take a rational, evidence-based view, to ensure progress in safety.”
With the [DOO] model being nothing new it is right to ask the question why, if it is so safe, has it only been adopted by less than a third of the network? The answer is that it is unsafe, unpopular with the public and opposed by all of the rail unions
Brutal but to the point sadly. It’s even worse that the only people that will benefit from this technological change will be the shareholders, and that the passengers won’t see any benefit.
And shareholders won't benefit, it's taxpayers who will, because whatever SWR are doing they will have bid and put in a relevant premium. If it all goes pear-shaped, the shareholders will lose however, including all the staff (AFAIK First still runs an employee share scheme).Passengers will benefit, because driver operation of the doors saves a few seconds at each stop, which allows for faster journeys to be timetabled, or a bit more flexibility in an existing timetable, or cumulatively an extra service to be fitted in on the way to Waterloo. Also it contributes to meeting First's targets which include paying a large premium to the DfT, which benefits all rail users.
And shareholders won't benefit, it's taxpayers who will, because whatever SWR are doing they will have bid and put in a relevant premium. If it all goes pear-shaped, the shareholders will lose however, including all the staff (AFAIK First still runs an employee share scheme).
SWR insist that their bid does not rely on DOO. If we are to believe them, (personally I don't but I know many people love to take everything they say at face value), then passengers will get faster journey times regardless. The journey time improvements are a commitment SWR have made in their franchise agreement, they have to be made regardless of whether they introduce DOO or not, and if we are to believe what they say, they have made no decision yet, which suggests they believe journey time improvements are possible whatever mode of operation is employed. I don't think you can make a sweeping statement that DOO will lead to decreased dwell times anyway, I am not at all convinced it does.Passengers will benefit, because driver operation of the doors saves a few seconds at each stop, which allows for faster journeys to be timetabled, or a bit more flexibility in an existing timetable, or cumulatively an extra service to be fitted in on the way to Waterloo. Also it contributes to meeting First's targets which include paying a large premium to the DfT, which benefits all rail users.
Passengers will benefit, because driver operation of the doors saves a few seconds at each stop, which allows for faster journeys to be timetabled, or a bit more flexibility in an existing timetable, or cumulatively an extra service to be fitted in on the way to Waterloo. Also it contributes to meeting First's targets which include paying a large premium to the DfT, which benefits all rail users.
They are correct; their bid did not rely on DOO. However, whether they can achieve the time savings they are committed to is another matter. Faster times will be achieved, but how much faster? Of course the timetable may end up saying one thing; what the trains actually run may not be the same...SWR insist that their bid does not rely on DOO. If we are to believe them, (personally I don't but I know many people love to take everything they say at face value), then passengers will get faster journey times regardless. The journey time improvements are a commitment SWR have made in their franchise agreement, they have to be made regardless of whether they introduce DOO or not, and if we are to believe what they say, they have made no decision yet, which suggests they believe journey time improvements are possible whatever mode of operation is employed. I don't think you can make a sweeping statement that DOO will lead to decreased dwell times anyway, I am not at all convinced it does.
If the only way to achieve the timetable committed to is to introduce DOO, then they have committed to DOO in the franchise agreement, whether they will admit it or not. I don't think DOO is faster anyway, and SWR do not seem to want to be drawn on the point either, and I don't think the bid journey time reductions are workable in practice anyway.They are correct; their bid did not rely on DOO. However, whether they can achieve the time savings they are committed to is another matter. Faster times will be achieved, but how much faster? Of course the timetable may end up saying one thing; what the trains actually run may not be the same...