TFW December 2023 Timetable changes

[craigybagel]

The reality of the situation is that two car 197s with four on the peak Wrexham services to Liverpool Lime Street will not suffer any overcrowding at all for 40 - 45 weeks of the year. Between Chester and Llandudno Junction this timetable will offer vast over-capacity on most services too.

During the school holidays, Easter weekend and so on, you may find a small number of overcrowded trains. But that's 100% the same situation as this year, and as 2019. Is it really sensible to imagine that the modern railway can respond to these kinds of demand changes anywhere without huge inefficiency?

It's not as if the existing option of using Merseyrail and then one of the many other trains to the Coast is going away is it. The new service is also not even substantially faster either, it's just much more convenient (of course, it is faster from the intermediate stations).

Fishguard gaining a two-hourly service is big news.

And the nice thing about one large homogeneous fleet signed by everybody is that capacity can be shifted between routes of necessary - so in summer when the peak business routes are quieter, it shouldn't be too hard to shuffle things round and boost capacity on the Coastal routes.

And again trying to get in before the "WHAT ABOUT THE CAMBRIAN" brigade, fitting ERTMS to these units is a doddle. They're already pre-wired. If it turns out they've got their maths wrong and they need more units fitted, it's really not a big deal.

 

[Starmill]

And the nice thing about one large homogeneous fleet signed by everybody is that capacity can be shifted between routes of necessary - so in summer when the peak business routes are quieter, it shouldn't be too hard to shuffle things round and boost capacity on the Coastal routes.

And again trying to get in before the "WHAT ABOUT THE CAMBRIAN" brigade, fitting ERTMS to these units is a doddle. They're already pre-wired. If it turns out they've got their maths wrong and they need more units fitted, it's really not a big deal.

Another thing that gets overlooked is that a huge part of the overcrowding is actually just people crossing the Mawddach by train, because the road bridge is both tolled and takes about half an hour to drive, vs 8 minutes on the train. Now I'm certain that TfW management and Welsh Ministers would agree that it's disappointing to have trains so full they're almost leaving people behind between Fairbourne and Barmouth, but realistically any strengthening of the Coast would result in huge over-capacity between Pwllheli and Barmouth. A 197 is actually going to be rather better than a 158 for this because there's much more space to stand in.

Some strengthening may, of course, still be justified, but if it is it would probably be to Aberystwyth rather than the Coast as it generates much higher loadings. This year, Easter weekend etc had bus-based strengthening at Machynlleth and Shrewsbury, from what I understand. Now obviously that's not at all a good outcome for the customer either really, but far better than being left behind on a platform and told to deal with it, which is what happens at some TOCs. In some cases, Machynlleth would send buses out before the trains were due because they had been warned there wasn't going to be enough space and there were already lots of people waiting. Furthermore, more capacity than usual has actually been achieved during the autumn closures of the Coast, with four cars to Aberystwyth all day and double-cover on the bus for every train.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Another thing that gets overlooked is that a huge part of the overcrowding is actually just people crossing the Mawddach by train, because the road bridge is both tolled and takes about half an hour to drive, vs 8 minutes on the train. Now I'm certain that TfW management and Welsh Ministers would agree that it's disappointing to have trains so full they're almost leaving people behind between Fairbourne and Barmouth, but realistically any strengthening of the Coast would result in huge over-capacity between Pwllheli and Barmouth. A 197 is actually going to be rather better than a 158 for this because there's much more space to stand in.

Some strengthening may, of course, still be justified, but if it is it would probably be to Aberystwyth rather than the Coast as it generates much higher loadings. This year, Easter weekend etc had bus-based strengthening at Machynlleth and Shrewsbury, from what I understand. Now obviously that's not at all a good outcome for the customer either really, but far better than being left behind on a platform and told to deal with it, which is what happens at some TOCs. In some cases, Machynlleth would send buses out before the trains were due because they had been warned there wasn't going to be enough space and there were already lots of people waiting. Furthermore, more capacity than usual has actually been achieved during the autumn closures of the Coast, with four cars to Aberystwyth all day and double-cover on the bus for every train.

I'd certainly agree that the Cambrian has more demand towards the southern end, though I think you're overtalking people using it just to cross the Mawddach bridge. Yes, people do that, just as they do e.g. from Arnside to Grange, but it's not that massive.

I wonder if that's something that would be better done using the timetable, i.e. reducing the service past Barmouth, perhaps to roughly every three hours but specifically timed for given needs e.g. the Harlech school traffic, in favour of increasing that to Barmouth to hourly during the daytime, if it's possible to do that with the physical infrastructure, even if every other one is a connection at Mach rather than a through service to Brum.

 

[Starmill]

I'd certainly agree that the Cambrian has more demand towards the southern end, though I think you're overtalking people using it just to cross the Mawddach bridge. Yes, people do that, just as they do e.g. from Arnside to Grange, but it's not that massive.

I wonder if that's something that would be better done using the timetable, i.e. reducing the service past Barmouth, perhaps to roughly every three hours but specifically timed for given needs e.g. the Harlech school traffic, in favour of increasing that to Barmouth to hourly during the daytime, if it's possible to do that with the physical infrastructure, even if every other one is a connection at Mach rather than a through service to Brum.

The other possibility to provide more capacity would be to split the line into three in the summer season, with a mix of two and four cars between Shrewsbury (or beyond) and Aberystwyth, four cars between Machynlleth and Barmouth and two cars between Barmouth and Pwllheli. That would serve the actual demand very effectively with just one additional two car unit, but obviously the political fallout from making so many people change trains where they didn't previously is probably much too great for it to be considered. It would also increase performance risk significantly because connections would need to wait for people to cross footbridges.

 

[Llandudno]

I'd certainly agree that the Cambrian has more demand towards the southern end, though I think you're overtalking people using it just to cross the Mawddach bridge. Yes, people do that, just as they do e.g. from Arnside to Grange, but it's not that massive.

I wonder if that's something that would be better done using the timetable, i.e. reducing the service past Barmouth, perhaps to roughly every three hours but specifically timed for given needs e.g. the Harlech school traffic, in favour of increasing that to Barmouth to hourly during the daytime, if it's possible to do that with the physical infrastructure, even if every other one is a connection at Mach rather than a through service to Brum.

There is also a ferry from Fairbourne to Barmouth….!!

Only holds about 10 passengers though and not particularly accessible with a walk on the sand to access it! Great fun though along with a steam train ride on the connecting Fairbourne railway!

 

[30907]

The other possibility to provide more capacity would be to split the line into three in the summer season, with a mix of two and four cars between Shrewsbury (or beyond) and Aberystwyth, four cars between Machynlleth and Barmouth and two cars between Barmouth and Pwllheli. That would serve the actual demand very effectively with just one additional two car unit, but obviously the political fallout from making so many people change trains where they didn't previously is probably much too great for it to be considered. It would also increase performance risk significantly because connections would need to wait for people to cross footbridges.

Strengthening the coast like that would require 2 units as they cross at Tywyn, and there is significant traffic from (eg) Talybont into Barmouth during the season.
An additional shuttle Tywyn-Harlech and vv would cover the demand, but it would mean speeding up the trains slightly because it's 30min Tywyn-Barmouth

But then, from memory, Machynlleth-Aberdyfi gets crowded at certain times with daytrippers from England - so I am not sure there is an economical solution for a problem that is decidedly seasonal.
.

 

[The Planner]

There is also a ferry from Fairbourne to Barmouth….!!

Only holds about 10 passengers though and not particularly accessible with a walk on the sand to access it! Great fun though along with a steam train ride on the connecting Fairbourne railway!

Better than trying to park in Barmouth too, park in Fairbourne or down at the end of the road, ferry across.

 

[Starmill]

I am not sure there is an economical solution for a problem that is decidedly seasonal.

At the end of the day I think it would always come down to this. And I can't exactly blame anyone over it, I've never fancied a trip to Barmouth in mid-January but it can be lovely in May and June.

 

[Parallel]

The north end of the route can get very busy too, with Harlech being a popular destination. I’ve also been on a train that was full and standing from Llandecwyn towards Machynlleth so crowding definitely isn’t just limited to the South end. There were proposals to run an additional Tywyn - Porthmadog (or Pwllheli?!) service some time ago which probably would’ve been a popular option in high summer. There are many holiday parks and walking groups that generate a lot of traffic all along the route.

 

[Esker-pades]

Interesting that the Cardiff Valley routes (Rhymney, Merthyr, Treherbert & Aberdare) are not included in these draft TTs but perhaps they can't be sure enough to begin planning for those.

Dave

The Cardiff Valley routes are a separate timetable writing exercise.

I wonder if that's something that would be better done using the timetable, i.e. reducing the service past Barmouth, perhaps to roughly every three hours but specifically timed for given needs e.g. the Harlech school traffic, in favour of increasing that to Barmouth to hourly during the daytime, if it's possible to do that with the physical infrastructure, even if every other one is a connection at Mach rather than a through service to Brum.

The school traffic is already taken into account with the published timetables.

It is not possible to run an even hourly service between Machynlleth and Barmouth, mainly because of the single line between Machynlleth and Dovey Junction.

Strengthening the coast like that would require 2 units as they cross at Tywyn, and there is significant traffic from (eg) Talybont into Barmouth during the season.
An additional shuttle Tywyn-Harlech and vv would cover the demand, but it would mean speeding up the trains slightly because it's 30min Tywyn-Barmouth

But then, from memory, Machynlleth-Aberdyfi gets crowded at certain times with daytrippers from England - so I am not sure there is an economical solution for a problem that is decidedly seasonal.
.

One might be able to get the run times below 30 minutes with proper 197 timings; this one does allow for 158s should there be a delay in 197 delivery.

 

[30907]

The north end of the route can get very busy too, with Harlech being a popular destination. I’ve also been on a train that was full and standing from Llandecwyn towards Machynlleth so crowding definitely isn’t just limited to the South end. There were proposals to run an additional Tywyn - Porthmadog (or Pwllheli?!) service some time ago which probably would’ve been a popular option in high summer. There are many holiday parks and walking groups that generate a lot of traffic all along the route.

Yes, I think that was what triggered my comment upthread.

 

[frodshamfella]

At last an hourly service from Frodsham to Liverpool again....light at the end of the tunnel !

Just had my first ride on a Class 175 from Frodsham to Liverpool Lime St. Very nice indeed.

 

[allaction]

And still no improvement in frequency on the Pembroke Dock line - Pembrokeshire's most-used line in terms of passengers....

Why so?

 

[berneyarms]

And still no improvement in frequency on the Pembroke Dock line - Pembrokeshire's most-used line in terms of passengers....

Why so?

You’d need infrastructure improvements on the branch line to facilitate additional trains.

There isn’t enough time to run an additional service to Tenby and back from Whitland with any resilience.

You’d need additional passing loops in different locations and a recast timetable to operate extra services.

 

[Runningaround]

Okay people, put away the (sadly predictable) pitchforks for the timebeing. Please remember this is only the 2023 timetable, not the final 2024 offering. On most routes it's already an increase in capacity (yes, I can hear the shrill cries of "BUT WHAT ABOUT THE CAMBRIAN?!?!?! already, I'll get to that), but with the promise of more yet to come.

Where are we seeing 2 car services? Well Llandudno to Liverpool is mentioned a lot - but bear in mind that Liverpool since Covid has been 1 2 car service every 2 hours, so an hourly 2 car service is a doubled service (and the peak Wrexham is a 4 car). Llandudno as an hourly 2 car might seem worrying, but bear in mind the coast is also seeing extra Bangor services, most of which are 3 cars, so again extra capacity.

There are more changes to come. As others have noticed, South Wales will be temporarily borrowing some 197s to work the routes that are meant to see Stadlers. When they arrive, that frees up more 197s for other routes. I also don't believe these plans include the entire 197 fleet being in service either, given the final unit wasn't expected in service till 2024.

Now then, on to the Cambrian. As I've pointed out many MANY times, the Cambrian, and especially the Coast, only really gets busy in high summer. The odds of a full 197 service starting on the Cambrian by summer 2023 are pretty slim, so nothing to worry about for this year. And as I said earlier, 2024 is likely to be different.

This isn't Cross-country, despite how much certain posters may want it to be. This is an exciting first glimpse at the future, before things get even better.

This is a massive expansion - taking place at the same time as so many questions are asked of the future of the DfT run TOCs. I know which part of the UK I'd rather be traveling in next year.

You've never travelled during Aber Universities beginning and end of term then? They run to the same capacity as they do all year and they'll soon be on trains with fewer seats and toilets is this what you mean by ''likely to be different''?.

 

[berneyarms]

You've never travelled during Aber Universities beginning and end of term then? They run to the same capacity as they do all year and they'll soon be on trains with fewer seats and toilets is this what you mean by ''likely to be different''?.

There will be four extra trains operating westbound and three eastbound on the Cambrian mainline each day which will help with the capacity.

 

[craigybagel]

You've never travelled during Aber Universities beginning and end of term then? They run to the same capacity as they do all year and they'll soon be on trains with fewer seats and toilets is this what you mean by ''likely to be different''?

As I thought I'd made clear, the above plans are for the end of 2023. The full timetable in 2024 is what is "likely to be different". That said, as berneyarms has pointed out even the 2023 timetable is an increase in capacity over what is currently offered.

 

[thealexweb]

TfW 769s are only single mode - diesel. They’ve had the pantographs and 3rd rail equipment removed to save maintenance/money.

The 3rd rail gear being removed was always in Porterbrook’s plan but I have never heard about the pantograph tech being permanently removed before. When did this happen?

 

[Class 466]

Those published timetables are great unless you have any form of colour deficient vision. In the time it took them to highlight all those columns they could’ve just typed the formation in a row above.

 

[frodshamfella]

The 2 trains per hour from Wrexham to Bidston is a real improvement, been called for, for a long time.

 

[Llandudno]

The 2 trains per hour from Wrexham to Bidston is a real improvement, been called for, for a long time.

Agreed, mind you they are struggling to one train per hour at the moment!

The proposed evening frequency is still very poor though, just one train every 2 hours with a last train from Wrexham at 10pm.

 

[Foxcover]

Yes, the proposed Bidston-Wrexham timetable puzzles me more each time I look at it.

-The morning peak towards Liverpool is a big improvement, but the evening peak returning is as bad as it ever was. It isn’t going to help commuters on the line at all as it needs to work well in both directions;

-The evening service does nothing for the leisure market, with virtually no evening service still, and a very early last train as Llandudno mentions above;

-the semi-fasts only seem to save 1 or 2 mins end to end - eg the 1008 semi-fast Wrexham-Bidston takes 53 mins, but the 1035 all-stations takes only 54 mins … so why even skip the stops? And why skip Upton, about the most populous area?

As I’ve said in an earlier thread, this is a really important step forward, and I understand the freight constraints, but I’m concerned that the passenger service outcomes above are going to make it very hard to realise the potential in the commuter and leisure markets, as the clockface service enhancements are mainly at times when growth is going to be harder to generate.

 

[Basil Jet]

The 2 trains per hour from Wrexham to Bidston is a real improvement, been called for, for a long time.

The talk about running that line through to the Liverpool loop using battery trains seems to have gone quiet.

 

[frodshamfella]

The talk about running that line through to the Liverpool loop using battery trains seems to have gone quiet.

Im not sure about that, I believe Merseyrail would still like the class 777s on it.

 

[Llandudno]

Im not sure about that, I believe Merseyrail would still like the class 777s on it.

The 777s will be life expired before they reach Wrexham.

Shotton is an outside bet within a decade!

 

[allaction]

You’d need infrastructure improvements on the branch line to facilitate additional trains.

There isn’t enough time to run an additional service to Tenby and back from Whitland with any resilience.

You’d need additional passing loops in different locations and a recast timetable to operate extra services.

So why so few direct long distance TfW services (which obviously contributes to the continuation of 153s on the line?) What chance is there of the reintroduction of the GWR summer Saturday Paddington services?

 

[HamworthyGoods]

So why so few direct long distance TfW services (which obviously contributes to the continuation of 153s on the line?) What chance is there of the reintroduction of the GWR summer Saturday Paddington services?

I understand the GWR Summer Saturday Pembroke services to be in the plan again for next summer.

 

[JonathanH]

I understand the GWR Summer Saturday Pembroke services to be in the plan again for next summer.

Is it really that lucrative a proposition to run GWR trains to Pembroke Dock given the need to manage costs in the light of tighter budgets? Surely to run, it needs to cover its own costs as a non essential part of the GWR service?

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Is it really that lucrative a proposition to run GWR trains to Pembroke Dock given the need to manage costs in the light of tighter budgets? Surely to run, it needs to cover its own costs as a non essential part of the GWR service?

Interesting point!

 

[Esker-pades]

So why so few direct long distance TfW services (which obviously contributes to the continuation of 153s on the line?) What chance is there of the reintroduction of the GWR summer Saturday Paddington services?

The number of long-distance services isn't changed from previous timetables.

Currently, there's one from Cardiff in the morning and one from Manchester in the afternoon (only as far as Tenby though). Opposite there's just the one to Cardiff (again, starting from Tenby)

For Dec '23, the on from Manchester is extended all the way to Pembroke, as is the one to Cardiff. There isn't a morning service direct from Cardiff, but there is another one in the evening. Dec '23 also means every service (save for the very first and very last) runs to and from Swansea. The current timetable has no 10am from Swansea to Pembroke; that train starts from Carmarthen only.