TfW possible timetable changes and rolling stock cascades connected with the introduction of 197 units

[krus_aragon]

Personally I suspect we'll end up with all Manchester services only running as far as Cardiff, alternating between MKIV and 197 operation.

There could be a degree of through running to West Wales from the other Marches services though (Holyhead/Liverpool) as they will mostly be 197 worked.

Remembering that three Holyhead-Cardiff services each day will also be MkIV-worked, that doesn't make for a straight-forward clockface operation through to West Wales with the remaining 197s. (Liverpool-Cardiff has been deferred to 2024+ iirc, too.)

I'd expect any through running to West Wales to be done two-hourly with the 197s in the hours between the MkIV services. Given that some 3-car 197s were originally to be fitted with 1st class for Manchester-Swansea services, that'd be the obvious service to maintain cross-Cardiff services with.

If the above didn't happen, and all Manchester services terminated at Cardiff, would TfW still bother having a (smaller still) microfleet of 1st class 197s?

 

[tomuk]

Not yet, but there's a lot less to worry about mechanically with them since they can't move by themselves. Look at how well the much older MKIIIs are doing.

I'm not sure well is the way to describe Mk3s. The 150s have spent months\years at a time going through works having most of the lower bodysides replaced. The remaining hauled coaches have spent equal amounts of time being rectified and sliding door converted but still have question marks over them - see RAIB Carmont report.

 

[Anonymous10]

Remembering that three Holyhead-Cardiff services each day will also be MkIV-worked, that doesn't make for a straight-forward clockface operation through to West Wales with the remaining 197s. (Liverpool-Cardiff has been deferred to 2024+ iirc, too.)

I'd expect any through running to West Wales to be done two-hourly with the 197s in the hours between the MkIV services. Given that some 3-car 197s were originally to be fitted with 1st class for Manchester-Swansea services, that'd be the obvious service to maintain cross-Cardiff services with.

If the above didn't happen, and all Manchester services terminated at Cardiff, would TfW still bother having a (smaller still) microfleet of 1st class 197s?

that would maintain Milford and Carmarthen be to Cardiff?

 

[krus_aragon]

that would maintain Milford and Carmarthen be to Cardiff?

That's not clear in my tea-leaf-reading. I think that there'd still be a Marches-West Wales (Milford or Carmarthen) 197 service every two hours, possibly running limited stop between Cardiff and Swansea.

0.5tph obviously isn't enough, so that opens the question of what else operates west of Cardiff. There's room for speculation about frequency, Swanline stops, Swansea District line diversions, etc, but that's best discussed in another thread.

 

[Jez]

What might happen is the even hour from Manchester will be the MK4 to Cardiff and then the odd hour will be 197s to either Swansea or Carmarthen. Swansea might make more sense given 5 carriages and first class is only meant to run to there so would avoid having to detach anything at Swanssa. Then again running to Carmarthen would cover the service as now. There would be a need for a 2 hourly cardiff to Milford service to replace that leg of the journey then. I'd be surprised if no services go west of Cardiff as there will be a lot of services turning around at Cardiff which can lead to congestion in platforms 3 and 4. Possibly the Liverpool service could extend to milford if the timings were right as that is every two hours from Cardiff.

That's not clear in my tea-leaf-reading. I think that there'd still be a Marches-West Wales (Milford or Carmarthen) 197 service every two hours, possibly running limited stop between Cardiff and Swansea.

0.5tph obviously isn't enough, so that opens the question of what else operates west of Cardiff. There's room for speculation about frequency, Swanline stops, Swansea District line diversions, etc, but that's best discussed in another thread.

I'd be disappointed if there were no Manchester services at least as far as Swansea. Its surprising how many people do use the route both sides of Cardiff for direct journeys. Even if not travelling to Manchester many travel to Cwmbran Hereford Shrewsbury etc from West of Cardiff

 

[Anonymous10]

That's not clear in my tea-leaf-reading. I think that there'd still be a Marches-West Wales (Milford or Carmarthen) 197 service every two hours, possibly running limited stop between Cardiff and Swansea.

0.5tph obviously isn't enough, so that opens the question of what else operates west of Cardiff. There's room for speculation about frequency, Swanline stops, Swansea District line diversions, etc, but that's best discussed in another thread.

granted i just expect whatever it is will run to cardiff or the like

 

[Ribbleman]

153s are for heart of wales only plan was never to be 153s for west wales

The original TfW rolling stock plan was to retain a few 153s for services in West Wales. At that time 170s were expected to be used on the Heart of Wales line. Following changes to that plan will see the 170s depart TfW so 153s will remain there. As others have confirmed, the enlarged number of 153s that will remain with the franchise, rather more than the HoW will require, will see some work for them west of Swansea.

 

[Anonymous10]

The original TfW rolling stock plan was to retain a few 153s for services in West Wales. At that time 170s were expected to be used on the Heart of Wales line. Following changes to that plan will see the 170s depart TfW so 153s will remain there. As others have confirmed, the enlarged number of 153s that will remain with the franchise, rather more than the HoW will require, will see some work for them west of Swansea.

i believe you'll find the original plan was 170s for both heart of wales and west wales with the 153s to leave along with the rest of the fleet

 

[Anonymous10]

The original TfW rolling stock plan was to retain a few 153s for services in West Wales. At that time 170s were expected to be used on the Heart of Wales line. Following changes to that plan will see the 170s depart TfW so 153s will remain there. As others have confirmed, the enlarged number of 153s that will remain with the franchise, rather more than the HoW will require, will see some work for them west of Swansea.

sorry i define west wales services as those running into pembrokeshire the Carmarthen - crewe id say is more mid but i understand now

 

[Doveymain158]

The original TfW rolling stock plan was to retain a few 153s for services in West Wales. At that time 170s were expected to be used on the Heart of Wales line. Following changes to that plan will see the 170s depart TfW so 153s will remain there. As others have confirmed, the enlarged number of 153s that will remain with the franchise, rather more than the HoW will require, will see some work for them west of Swansea.

I think we need to remember that the HoW will have a 5th train added to the timetable plus an extra Swansea-Llandovery and Shrewsbury-Llandrindod evening additionals.

 

[Jez]

The original TfW rolling stock plan was to retain a few 153s for services in West Wales. At that time 170s were expected to be used on the Heart of Wales line. Following changes to that plan will see the 170s depart TfW so 153s will remain there. As others have confirmed, the enlarged number of 153s that will remain with the franchise, rather more than the HoW will require, will see some work for them west of Swansea.

I thought the original plan was for 170s to operate the Swansea to Pembroke Dock, Fishguard, Heart of Wales and Crewe locals with all 153s going along with everything else apart from 170s. Now the plan is 197s on West Wales with a small amount of 153s kept just for.the HOW and possibly Crewe locals

 

[Rhydgaled]

I thought the original plan was for 170s to operate the Swansea to Pembroke Dock, Fishguard, Heart of Wales and Crewe locals with all 153s going along with everything else apart from 170s.

Yes, I'm sure when KeolisAmey won they franchise they said every train would be replaced. 153s weren't wanted.

 

[Jez]

Yes, I'm sure when KeolisAmey won they franchise they said every train would be replaced. 153s weren't wanted.

That's correct. And apart from the 170s everything else would be new trains.

 

[craigybagel]

Remembering that three Holyhead-Cardiff services each day will also be MkIV-worked, that doesn't make for a straight-forward clockface operation through to West Wales with the remaining 197s. (Liverpool-Cardiff has been deferred to 2024+ iirc, too.)

I'd expect any through running to West Wales to be done two-hourly with the 197s in the hours between the MkIV services. Given that some 3-car 197s were originally to be fitted with 1st class for Manchester-Swansea services, that'd be the obvious service to maintain cross-Cardiff services with.

If the above didn't happen, and all Manchester services terminated at Cardiff, would TfW still bother having a (smaller still) microfleet of 1st class 197s?

That's not clear in my tea-leaf-reading. I think that there'd still be a Marches-West Wales (Milford or Carmarthen) 197 service every two hours, possibly running limited stop between Cardiff and Swansea.

0.5tph obviously isn't enough, so that opens the question of what else operates west of Cardiff. There's room for speculation about frequency, Swanline stops, Swansea District line diversions, etc, but that's best discussed in another thread.

What might happen is the even hour from Manchester will be the MK4 to Cardiff and then the odd hour will be 197s to either Swansea or Carmarthen. Swansea might make more sense given 5 carriages and first class is only meant to run to there so would avoid having to detach anything at Swanssa. Then again running to Carmarthen would cover the service as now. There would be a need for a 2 hourly cardiff to Milford service to replace that leg of the journey then. I'd be surprised if no services go west of Cardiff as there will be a lot of services turning around at Cardiff which can lead to congestion in platforms 3 and 4. Possibly the Liverpool service could extend to milford if the timings were right as that is every two hours from Cardiff.


I'd be disappointed if there were no Manchester services at least as far as Swansea. Its surprising how many people do use the route both sides of Cardiff for direct journeys. Even if not travelling to Manchester many travel to Cwmbran Hereford Shrewsbury etc from West of Cardiff

The problem with extending the 197 services into West Wales is that the timings don't work - unless they only run to Swansea. For Carmarthen or Milford you'd need to add an extra hour into the existing turn around times in Wales to end up on the right services at Manchester

The original TfW rolling stock plan was to retain a few 153s for services in West Wales. At that time 170s were expected to be used on the Heart of Wales line. Following changes to that plan will see the 170s depart TfW so 153s will remain there. As others have confirmed, the enlarged number of 153s that will remain with the franchise, rather more than the HoW will require, will see some work for them west of Swansea.

I thought the original plan was for 170s to operate the Swansea to Pembroke Dock, Fishguard, Heart of Wales and Crewe locals with all 153s going along with everything else apart from 170s. Now the plan is 197s on West Wales with a small amount of 153s kept just for.the HOW and possibly Crewe locals

Yes, I'm sure when KeolisAmey won they franchise they said every train would be replaced. 153s weren't wanted.

Correct - originally there weren't meant to be any 153s staying long term. 170s were going to cover West Wales, HOWL and Shrewsbury - Crewe. The new plan is that the extra MKIVs will displace enough 197s to cover West Wales, and a small amount of 153s (not all of the current fleet) will be held on to for HOWL. Shrewsbury - Crewe hasn't been confirmed publicly but 153s seem the most likely for here as well.

 

[Jez]

The timings could work for Carmarthen as its an hourly service (or at least it will be hourly regardless of whether some trains only go as far as Swansea, Cardiff or Manchester!) so an arrival from Manchester could go back out to Cardiff for example and likewise an arrival from Cardiff could go back to Manchester if that is what the timetable required. Similar to what happens in Manchester now with an arrival from Milford generally going back to Carmarthen and the other way around. With Milford I can see how it wouldn't work as its a 2 hourly service there and would require a longer turn around, unless the stopping pattern and timetable could be changed somehow to work it out.

It would make sense to terminate in Swansea (197s with first class) and Cardiff for the MK4 (with just that one continuing to Swansea). But then Carmarthen would lose its direct service to Cardiff in the hours they terminated at Swansea at least. Someone is going to lose out somewhere whatever they do.

It makes me wonder why the poor HOW passengers have to manage with ancient rolling stock for quite a while yet whilst everywhere else is getting new trains. The 170s (even not refurbished inside) would be a massive upgrade on 153s.

 

[Caaardiff]

The ideal timetable in my view is for the 197 5 cars to run Manchester - Milford Haven with the split as planned at Swansea and the Mk4 to Cardiff, with connecting 3 car 197 running to either Carmarthen or through to Pembroke Dock with Swanline stops. Anyone wanting to go to the Pembroke Dock line would otherwise have to change twice, at Cardiff or Swansea/Carmarthen. Not sure exactly how those timings would work though. Long term If capacity can be increased between Carmarthen and Tenby an increased frequency as far as Tenby may work as say Tenby - Manchester complimenting the standard Pembroke Dock - Carmarthen/Swansea service. For such a popular area Tenby and surrounding is vastly undeserved.
I imagine HOWL will eventually see 197s but gauging is probably an issue with so many stations and other routes have taken priority. Surprised there's still no long term plan been issued though.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Yes, I'm sure when KeolisAmey won they franchise they said every train would be replaced. 153s weren't wanted.

That's correct. And apart from the 170s everything else would be new trains.

Don't forget the mark 4s and 230s, it wasn't just the 170s that weren't new.

For such a popular area Tenby and surrounding is vastly undeserved.

Given it's a 28 minute journey from Whitland to Tenby it might theoretically be possible to run an hourly service to Tenby but you'd only have 4 minutes turnaround time at Tenby and that would probably be insufficiently robust. That 28min section also screws up any hope of running a neat regular interval timetable between Swansea and three Pembrokeshire branches.

 

[craigybagel]

The timings could work for Carmarthen as its an hourly service (or at least it will be hourly regardless of whether some trains only go as far as Swansea, Cardiff or Manchester!) so an arrival from Manchester could go back out to Cardiff for example and likewise an arrival from Cardiff could go back to Manchester if that is what the timetable required. Similar to what happens in Manchester now with an arrival from Milford generally going back to Carmarthen and the other way around. With Milford I can see how it wouldn't work as its a 2 hourly service there and would require a longer turn around, unless the stopping pattern and timetable could be changed somehow to work it out.

It would make sense to terminate in Swansea (197s with first class) and Cardiff for the MK4 (with just that one continuing to Swansea). But then Carmarthen would lose its direct service to Cardiff in the hours they terminated at Swansea at least. Someone is going to lose out somewhere whatever they do.

The ideal timetable in my view is for the 197 5 cars to run Manchester - Milford Haven with the split as planned at Swansea and the Mk4 to Cardiff, with connecting 3 car 197 running to either Carmarthen or through to Pembroke Dock with Swanline stops. Anyone wanting to go to the Pembroke Dock line would otherwise have to change twice, at Cardiff or Swansea/Carmarthen. Not sure exactly how those timings would work though. Long term If capacity can be increased between Carmarthen and Tenby an increased frequency as far as Tenby may work as say Tenby - Manchester complimenting the standard Pembroke Dock - Carmarthen/Swansea service. For such a popular area Tenby and surrounding is vastly undeserved.

As I've said before, the TfW timetable is always a compromise between so many different demands, and whatever option they do go for you can bet someone is going to complain.

I'd be very surprised if Carmarthen doesn't retain an hourly service through to Cardiff though - I can't imagine anything less going down well in Cardiff Bay.

For Manchester - Milford Haven to work as a standalone 2 hourly service it needs to be comfortably less than 6 hours. At the moment it's between 6:05 and 6:30. The 197s do offer improved performance and it is certainly possible that along the Marches some station calls will be dropped in favour of the hourly Holyhead/Liverpool service - but it's going to be an impressive feat to squeeze enough out of it to work.

Given it's a 28 minute journey from Whitland to Tenby it might theoretically be possible to run an hourly service to Tenby but you'd only have 4 minutes turnaround time at Tenby and that would probably be insufficiently robust. That 28min section also screws up any hope of running a neat regular interval timetable between Swansea and three Pembrokeshire branches.

Given its NSTR signalling on the Pembroke branch, where the drivers have to ring the signaler to get permission to obtain and return tokens, there's not a chance of a 4 minute turnaround working at Tenby.

It makes me wonder why the poor HOW passengers have to manage with ancient rolling stock for quite a while yet whilst everywhere else is getting new trains. The 170s (even not refurbished inside) would be a massive upgrade on 153s.

It's not worth retaining a micro fleet of 170s just for one route (especially when they need clearing and crew training) and there aren't enough 197s spare to work it even with the extra MKIVs coming through. In an ideal world there would be a top up order for more 197s but money isn't unlimited - and within what's already a heavily subsidised franchise the HOWL is likely to be one of the most heavily subsidised routes. Most of the passengers are traveling for free during Winter!

Having in the past spent several years working the line I've never known a passenger complain about them - and that was before the fairly comprehensive refurbishment they received.

Remembering that three Holyhead-Cardiff services each day will also be MkIV-worked, that doesn't make for a straight-forward clockface operation through to West Wales with the remaining 197s. (Liverpool-Cardiff has been deferred to 2024+ iirc, too.)

I'd expect any through running to West Wales to be done two-hourly with the 197s in the hours between the MkIV services. Given that some 3-car 197s were originally to be fitted with 1st class for Manchester-Swansea services, that'd be the obvious service to maintain cross-Cardiff services with.

If the above didn't happen, and all Manchester services terminated at Cardiff, would TfW still bother having a (smaller still) microfleet of 1st class 197s?

I'm assuming we'll see the 1st class 197s on the Manchester services not worked by MKIVs - thus providing 1st class on every service.

 

[Envoy]

If trains to/from Shrewsbury and points north terminate/start at Cardiff or even Swansea, then it could well be that people travelling to/from Llanelli and points west will find it quicker to use the Heart of Wales line. I say this because even with direct services now between Llanelli and Shrewsbury via both HOW and Marches, the slow HOW route only takes 20 minutes or so longer than using the faster but longer Marches route. Throw in changes at Swansea and/or Cardiff, and we could well see a situation where the HOW is quicker between Llanelli & Shrewsbury. What the HOW route needs is some decent trains and it is a great pity that enough 197’s are not being ordered to cover this route - presumably because of the cost.

Mention has been made of getting from Whitland to Tenby. Surely, if this line had investment in long welded rail, then services could be speeded up? Same goes for the HOW. Another thing to consider is the Swansea District Line. If this route had the speed limit increased, then it could be used for services going through to Carmarthen & beyond with faster timings than going into Swansea. The ideal situation is to have both routes covered in some way between Port Talbot and Llanelli.

Sorry to go off topic a bit but it seems that everyone is thinking of the best ways of utilising the 197’s and the Mk4’s.

 

[krus_aragon]

The problem with extending the 197 services into West Wales is that the timings don't work - unless they only run to Swansea. For Carmarthen or Milford you'd need to add an extra hour into the existing turn around times in Wales to end up on the right services at Manchester

Things seemed to line up okay with the illustrative timings I did in an explorative MkIV timetable back in April, before it was known that the MkIVs would be running two-hourly. Those were done on the assumption of 4.5 hours from Manchester to Swansea, or 6.5 to Milford. Throw in half an hour turnaround times at either end and Manchester-Swansea is ten hours round trip, while Manchester-Milford is 14. Both are even, so the units wouldn't land up on the wrong hour in a MkIV path.

That turnaround time might be the extra hour you're referring to, but from what I see it'd be required for Swansea runs just the same as Carmarthen/Milford, unless there's a lot of time savings to be made east of Swansea, or something else that's slipping my mind at the moment.

 

[craigybagel]

Things seemed to line up okay with the illustrative timings I did in an explorative MkIV timetable back in April, before it was known that the MkIVs would be running two-hourly. Those were done on the assumption of 4.5 hours from Manchester to Swansea, or 6.5 to Milford. Throw in half an hour turnaround times at either end and Manchester-Swansea is ten hours round trip, while Manchester-Milford is 14. Both are even, so the units wouldn't land up on the wrong hour in a MkIV path.

That turnaround time might be the extra hour you're referring to, but from what I see it'd be required for Swansea runs just the same as Carmarthen/Milford, unless there's a lot of time savings to be made east of Swansea, or something else that's slipping my mind at the moment.

No you're right, I got the maths wrong with Swansea - an even houred round trip there isn't really possible either without a very long turnaround. Part of the problem is I'm assuming the 15 minute turnaround in Manchester is fixed owing to the limited paths across the WCML at Crewe. If that's the case, to fit in you're left with some very long turnarounds in Wales. Even turning at Cardiff the turn arounds aren't that far short of an hour.

 

[anthony263]

Ideally I’d d like to see TFW get another rake or two of mark 4 carriages and run all the Manchester services to Swansea. Swanline would be a hourly separate stopping service using 197’s unless electrification happens

 

[krus_aragon]

No you're right, I got the maths wrong with Swansea - an even houred round trip there isn't really possible either without a very long turnaround. Part of the problem is I'm assuming the 15 minute turnaround in Manchester is fixed owing to the limited paths across the WCML at Crewe. If that's the case, to fit in you're left with some very long turnarounds in Wales. Even turning at Cardiff the turn arounds aren't that far short of an hour.

Thanks for the reply, that reduces my confusion.

The WCML is due for a recast in December 2022 (along with the North Wales Coast, and possibly other parts of Wales), isn't it? That might be the way someone's squaring the circle at the timetable department.

 

[43096]

Ideally I’d d like to see wife get another rake or two of mark 4 carriages and runnnall the Manchester services to Swansea. Swanline would be a hourly separate stopping service using 197’s unless electrification happens

All the surplus Mark 4s have gone: there’s no more available until the LNER sets come off lease at some yet-to-be-determined date in the future.

 

[Doveymain158]

Thanks for the reply, that reduces my confusion.

The WCML is due for a recast in December 2022 (along with the North Wales Coast, and possibly other parts of Wales), isn't it? That might be the way someone's squaring the circle at the timetable department.

North Wales Coast no. Llandudno’s aare suppose to be Liverpools, current Manchester’s run to Bangor. All this after full 197s introduced.

 

[Jez]

If Carmarthen to Cardiff needs to retain an hourly direct service then there is no option but to terminate Manchesters in Cardiff if the times don't work west of Cardiff.

The only other possible option is to have an hourly Cardiff-Carmarthen but making Swanline stops every other hour (or even hourly if Swanline is to be hourly in the future?) and keep this separate to the Manchester-Swansea service every 2 hours.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

North Wales Coast no. Llandudno’s aare suppose to be Liverpools, current Manchester’s run to Bangor. All this after full 197s introduced.

If Avanti times at Chester, Crewe and Warrington change that will impact the TfW services too.
Same to a degree about Wolverhampton and the corridor to International.
Plus there's the 805s to fit in between Crewe-Holyhead.
Not saying much will change, but the TOCs are supposed to be cooperating on the new timetable.

 

[Jez]

It's not worth retaining a micro fleet of 170s just for one route (especially when they need clearing and crew training) and there aren't enough 197s spare to work it even with the extra MKIVs coming through. In an ideal world there would be a top up order for more 197s but money isn't unlimited - and within what's already a heavily subsidised franchise the HOWL is likely to be one of the most heavily subsidised routes. Most of the passengers are traveling for free during Winter!

Having in the past spent several years working the line I've never known a passenger complain about them - and that was before the fairly comprehensive refurbishment they received.


I'm assuming we'll see the 1st class 197s on the Manchester services not worked by MKIVs - thus providing 1st class on every service.

Ive never had a problem with the 153s when I've used the HOW and prefer them to a 150. ATW did a very good refurbishment on them around 2010 (before that I wasnt keen on them) and now TFW have done an even better refurbishment. Just with everywhere else getting brand new trains, by and large, it does seem odd the HOW is left with ancient stock for possibly another decade. However as you say the HOW line is not very cost effective so they probably cant justify increasing the order of 197s to cover this route. To be fair the 170s would have been quite old compared to everything else had they gone on the HOW as planned.

 

[krus_aragon]

North Wales Coast no. Llandudno’s aare suppose to be Liverpools, current Manchester’s run to Bangor. All this after full 197s introduced.

If Avanti times at Chester, Crewe and Warrington change that will impact the TfW services too.
Same to a degree about Wolverhampton and the corridor to International.
Plus there's the 805s to fit in between Crewe-Holyhead.
Not saying much will change, but the TOCs are supposed to be cooperating on the new timetable.

TfW may not be ready to introduce their additional services until the 197 fleet is introduced, but given that other TOCs are going ahead with December 2022, the timetable may yet be recast to the new plan, with some services left off in the short term.

(Changing Manchester-Llandudno to Manchester-Bangor later on won't be an issue, as the turnaround time - with Junction shuttles in the former case - is the same.)

 

[Jez]

When are the MK4s being introduced on the Manchester to Cardiff ? Is it December 22? If so we should know about the changes very soon.