The 2024 US presidential election.

[GRALISTAIR]

Get the VP pick right and they are back in the game big time.

Most definitely. May I say something outrageous? Her best pick would be a white male!

 

[Busaholic]

Up against Trump, ignore all optics. It should be a governor or mayor with a good, even great, track record and not a senator. The Democrats have had weeks to sort this out so it shouldn't take too long to coalesce behind someone. Of course, if Michelle Obama made herself available, that'd be perfect as it parks the race and gender backlash surrounding Harris's non-suitability. Their own polls will show the latter is true.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I still think it will be Gavin Newsom

 

[brad465]

I still think it will be Gavin Newsom

As Presidential candidate or running mate?

Came back from a long cycle ride to this news and breathed a sign of relief (although we're not out of the Trump woods yet).

 

[YorkshireBear]

Still think Trump will win regardless, his I took a bullet for democracy will just cement his attraction.

Republicans being classy about Biden stepping aside as expected.

 

[nlogax]

Right decision to stand aside but too little, too late. Harris will need to pull a complete miracle out of the hat here. She's not exactly been a stellar VP.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

As Presidential candidate or running mate?

Came back from a long cycle ride to this news and breathed a sign of relief (although we're not out of the Trump woods yet).

Running mate.

 

[Trackman]

Is Hillary in with a shout?

 

[sor]

I still think it will be Gavin Newsom

that could cause problems as it would prevent california's electoral college from voting for harris-newsom:

The Electors shall meet in their respective States, and vote by Ballot for two Persons, of whom one at least shall not be an Inhabitant of the same State with themselves.

this is why Cheney "moved" to Wyoming - though I suppose Harris is technically a resident of DC right now and could claim that for elections purposes?

 

[jfollows]

Right decision to stand aside but too little, too late. Harris will need to pull a complete miracle out of the hat here. She's not exactly been a stellar VP.

All of that, I agree.
If there are 180 million people in the US eligible to be president, say 100 million are old enough, say 50 million are Democrats, say 1% of these could be politicians, say 1% of these are competent, this still leaves 5,000 people and I can’t believe that none of them could put up a good fight. I don’t see Kamala Harris as one of these, though.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Right decision to stand aside but too little, too late. Harris will need to pull a complete miracle out of the hat here. She's not exactly been a stellar VP.

VPs always sit in the background but when circumstances have put them front of house they have delivered.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

VPs always sit in the background but when circumstances have put them front of house they have delivered.

True

 

[brad465]

VPs always sit in the background but when circumstances have put them front of house they have delivered.

Mike Pence was a key example, I don't remember much about his time by Trump's side during his term, until he showed he was an order of magnitude more sensible than Trump on Jan 6th 2021 and happily went by convention to confirm the EC vote was won by Biden, while all Trump's cultists demanding the hanging of Mike Pence and why the latter now doesn't endorse Trump. JD Vance would do well to remember the main reason why he's the running mate for Trump this time.

 

[nlogax]

VPs always sit in the background but when circumstances have put them front of house they have delivered.

She'll need votes first. This will be the problem.

 

[Purple Train]

This is a win-win for Biden. If Harris-Newsom (as I suspect the ticket will be) wins, he will be hailed as a politician whose brave decision - too late, but does Posterity remember the delays to the Elizabeth Line? - stopped Trump from causing irreparable damage to the US and to the world. If the Democrats lose, then at least it won't be because Biden clung to the nomination - at this stage, I think it would be difficult to argue that Biden dropping out sooner - or, at least, when the clamour for him to be replaced started - would have produced a different result, if they lose.

 

[Buzby]

There haven’t been many VPs who actually made it as an elected President 6 or 7 I think? It will be up to who the nominated Democrat is to name their own VP. Biden may want KH out of loyalty, but is it enough? I’m not aware of her making her mark - and I’m a NY Times reader. So ‘optics‘ apart, it is what is best for the country, not how it might look.

 

[jfollows]

There haven’t been many VPs who actually made it as an elected President 6 or 7 I think? It will be up to who the nominated Democrat is to name their own VP. Biden may want KH out of loyalty, but is it enough? I’m not aware of her making her mark - and I’m a NY Times reader. So ‘optics‘ apart, it is what is best for the country, not how it might look.

15 VPs became President at my count, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States
Fewer if you exclude some, like Ford, I agree, who didn’t win an election of their own. 7 succeeded on the death of the President, sure, but 4 or more of these won their own elections I think.

 

[Dent]

Right decision to stand aside but too little, too late.

You could certainly say to late, but how is it too little? What more should he have done beyond standing down which he has done?

 

[Busaholic]

Is Hillary in with a shout?

That Kennedy guy would be in with a better chance of getting elected.

Actually, that mightn't be a bad idea. Tell you why, when Trump hears the news he'd probably literally explode, like Mr Creosote...

 

[Loppylugs]

Actually, that mightn't be a bad idea. Tell you why, when Trump hears the news he'd probably literally explode, like Mr Creosote...

He can't hear properly, poor chap's got a bad ear.

 

[nlogax]

You could certainly say to late, but how is it too little? What more should he have done beyond standing down which he has done?

He could have made this decision a year ago and given his party a chance to properly debate and determine a list of effective candidates. This is obvious.

Just endorsing Harris and expecting everyone else to fall behind that decision is too little.

 

[JamesT]

I guess the first question is how bound to Biden's recommendation of Harris the primary delegates pledged to him are. If they all go with that then that's the nomination sorted. Otherwise. get your popcorn out, the Democratic convention will be entertaining.

 

[brad465]

As things stand Harris is 1/8 favourite to be the Democrat nominee, so while not certain, this suggests she'll encounter little resistance in getting the nomination.

 

[jon0844]

I can't wait to see what Elon says, now that he is probably going to be as important as Trump in the election. I expect he'll be ensuring racism and misogyny is ramped up to 11 and the conspiracy theories start to be formed and spread.

For the Democrats it is awkward though. Of course it will seem dodgy to not to pick her, but she has been mostly anonymous and I do think there are better candidates.

 

[Busaholic]

What ifs can strain credulity sometimes, but not this one. What if that bullet had its desired (by the firer) effect last weekend: might Biden have managed to cling on to his nomination prospects? Now, I don't know what American law nas to say about Presidential elections having to be delayed in certain circumstances. but I'm sure such an eventuality will be covered.

For the Democrats it is awkward though. Of course it will seem dodgy to not to pick her, but she has been mostly anonymous and I do think there are better candidates.

If the money dries to a trickle they'll soon lose their inhibitions/scruples.

 

[brad465]

If the money dries to a trickle they'll soon lose their inhibitions/scruples.

According to this article in the FT, I don't think that will be an issue:

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on.ft.com

Kamala Harris has secured the backing of some of the Democrats’ biggest donors, strengthening the vice-president’s position as the favourite to win the party’s nomination within hours of Joe Biden saying he would not contest the 2024 US election.

In another update, Newsom is endorsing Harris, so assuming he keeps his word he's not going to try and challenge her:

Live updates: Harris vows to win after Biden drops out of presidential race in shock decision

Joe Biden drops out of presidential race against Donald Trump, endorsing Vice-President Kamala Harris to be the new Democratic nominee.

www.bbc.co.uk

California Governor Gavin Newsom - who has himself been mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate to replace Joe Biden in recent weeks - has now endorsed Kamala Harris for president.

In a statement, he says: "Tough. Fearless. Tenacious. With our democracy at stake and our future on the line, no one is better to prosecute the case against Donald Trump's dark vision and guide our country in a healthier direction than America’s Vice President, Kamala Harris."

 

[zero]

I can't imagine there will be many voters who would switch from Trump to Harris?

I guess the question is how many people (in states where it matters) would have been put off from voting for Biden despite the risk of Trump, but would now actively vote for Harris?

 

[birchesgreen]

If the money dries to a trickle they'll soon lose their inhibitions/scruples.

Well luckily there has been a massive increase in donations for Harris.

It has to be her, no one else really makes sense at this late stage. She has a very good chance of winning too.

 

[Bantamzen]

Right decision to stand aside but too little, too late. Harris will need to pull a complete miracle out of the hat here. She's not exactly been a stellar VP.

I disagree, if the Democrats play it smartly they can turn this election on its head again. Trump's campaign has largely focused on Biden's age and cognitive strength, and their convention looked to nail that to the post. Now that's all gone and that part of their campaign is in tatters. And if they are even smarter, the Democrats will turn this around and say "you said Biden was too old, we listened" putting Trump firmly in the old man spotlight. The Republicans have lost a key card in their hand, no doubt they will scramble for a new one, probably playing the "hard left" or "communist" one, but knowing some of their most senior activists this will qu8ickly descent into racism which will be easily exposed.

And then if they choose Harris, providing they make sure that she keeps on message and gets out and about, she can potentially galvanise parts of the population that have disengaged with politics so winning over Trump supporters may not be as important. But most importantly she will need to hit the debates running, with a firm and clear set of policies that she's researched. If she does that, she will almost certainly gain ground because we all know Trump is easily triggered into mistakes. The race is by no means over, it could still go either way, but I'll bet secretly that Trump is raging, again.

 

[birchesgreen]

It is rumoured that Trump picked Vance because he was so sure Biden would run, otherwise he would have chosen a female running mate. Opps!

Its all to play for now. Trump's base won't vote for Harris but they wouldn't change their vote anyway, the Democrat base may be more inclined to come out now. The key will be everyone else, and i suspect the anti-abortion and restricting rights obsession of the Republicans will repel a lot (most?) female voters and send them to Democrat.