The future of unelectrified lines once the UK gets to net zero carbon?

[philosopher]

The UK government has committed to achieving net zero carbon by 2050, in which any carbon emissions will have to be offset by other means, such as carbon capture. Given it is very unlikely all lines will be electrified by 2050, what will happen to those unelectrified lines and services along them? Will hydrogen or battery trains come to the rescue, will diesel or bimode trains keep chugging along on them, or will they have to close?

 

[Carlisle]

or will they have to close?

Zero chance of that unless another mode of transport has somehow removed most of a lines custom by then.

 

[ivorytoast28]

The UK government has committed to achieving net zero carbon by 2050, in which any carbon emissions will have to be offset by other means, such as carbon capture. Given it is very unlikely all lines will be electrified by 2050, what will happen to those unelectrified lines and services along them? Will hydrogen or battery trains come to the rescue, will diesel or bimode trains keep chugging along on them, or will they have to close?

Most likely nothing and they'll change that deadline to 2070...
The aim should of course be to seriously invest in electrifying the majority of well used lines and make train travel the popular option.. Yet in the same week as Cop26 they cut domestic air taxes so we can see where the priorities really lie

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think some could well end up replaced by electric buses. The Conwy Valley is prime for this.

Others would be harder to replace and need some sort of replacement power, e.g. the diesel suburban lines around Brum and Manchester.

 

[43021HST]

or will they have to close?

This forum really does love some rail closure fear mongering, railways are the most efficient form of land transport ever devised and I dare say the most sustainable. The case for rail closures on environmental grounds is absolutely ludicrous. Battery technology is likely to evolve to a point, where that'll be the case on non-electrified lines.

 

[Snow1964]

Someone will be creative with ideas to meet the target.

as a (not too far fetched example) have electric trains running using Norwegian hydro electricity, then saying the regenerative braking is offsetting the carbon on diesel trains on remote lines.

I’m trying to show ways around it will be found, not speculating on if this will be actual solution.

 

[HSTEd]

The railway will probably lose its eco-credential and the diesel railway will be left to wither and die, if it isn't outright put down by the government.

The railway of 2050 will be very very much like the railway of today, but the things its competing against will have changed almost beyond recognition.

The railway has fundamentally failed to confront the problems facing it in an effective manner and it has finally bled away all the political support it needs to keep going as it is.

 

[yorksrob]

The railway has fundamentally failed to confront the problems facing it in an effective manner and it has finally bled away all the political support it needs to keep going as it is.

A previous Government squandered the countries expertise in electrification and its successors dithered for the next twenty years.

 

[43021HST]

The railway will probably lose its eco-credential

As opposed to the electric car with it's lithium batteries, road congestion, failure to implement self driving and micro plastic producing tires.

 

[HSTEd]

As opposed to the electric car with it's lithium batteries, road congestion, failure to implement self driving and micro plastic producing tires.

Microplastic producing tyres are hardly in the same league as the current climate related issues.
And chosing a car over a train that will be expensive, slow and powered by ancient diesel engines makes perfect sense to the population.

A previous Government squandered the countries expertise in electrification and its successors dithered for the next twenty years.

And when finally given the chance to prove they could do electrification, the industry puts its faith in magical hypertech HOPS with magical new electrification systems that turned out to be virtually worthless rather than using some proven technology.

And didn't even bother with an operational trial scheme first!

 

[47476NightMail]

This forum really does love some rail closure fear mongering...

It's also becoming attached to some rather odd interpretations of what Net Zero actually means.

 

[Starmill]

railways are the most efficient form of land transport ever devised and I dare say the most sustainable.

Diesel trains running an infrequent service on rural routes which are lightly used is most definitely not efficient. Now, of course, there is scope to improve efficiency on all such routes. But there's still often not a large travel market, and there is a need for capital spending to get there.

 

[yorksrob]

And when finally given the chance to prove they could do electrification, the industry puts its faith in magical hypertech HOPS with magical new electrification systems that turned out to be virtually worthless rather than using some proven technology.

And didn't even bother with an operational trial scheme first!

Has anyone tried to iron out the issues with HOPS ?

Given that we've been electrifying the MML recently, is there any justification in killing electrification on the basis of the previous scheme, rather than continuing using the more recent ?

 

[Falcon1200]

I think some could well end up replaced by electric buses. The Conwy Valley is prime for this.

When, and if, an electric bus with the range to cover such a route is developed, would there not be such an electric train available too ?

The railway will probably lose its eco-credential and the diesel railway will be left to wither and die, if it isn't outright put down by the government.

I could not disagree more. By what realistic alternative means could the transport needs currently met by diesel trains be provided ?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I could not disagree more. By what realistic alternative means could the transport needs currently met by diesel trains be provided ?

Thousands and thousands of extra lorries from Felixtowe perhaps?

 

[Starmill]

I could not disagree more. By what realistic alternative means could the transport needs currently met by diesel trains be provided ?

I'm unsure what you mean really? Nearly all train services will need to either transition from diesel to AC overhead power or be withdrawn. Currently the alternatives are very limited and only suitable for short, slow trains.

 

[philosopher]

It's also becoming attached to some rather odd interpretations of what Net Zero actually means.

Net zero does allow diesel trains to operate, if the carbon can be offset by some other means, which as I understand may be as simple as planting more trees.

 

[Bletchleyite]

When, and if, an electric bus with the range to cover such a route is developed

They exist now, some are on order for the parallel bus route.

, would there not be such an electric train available too ?

Seemingly not yet.

 

[Starmill]

Net zero does allow diesel trains to operate, if the carbon can be offset by some other means, which as I understand may be as simple as planting more trees.

This is true but it comes with so many caveats. The first is that net zero will become a target for net negative in a few years. Then after that is the time lag between planting a tree and it actually capturing any carbon. Then there's the all of cost of actually supporting the natural regeneration of land, that is to say the right trees must be in the right place, and the land must be re-wilded permanently. And then of course you quickly run out of usable land. Trees aren't really the constraint - land is. Especially because wild space is going to be competing with housing, farming and solar panels more in the future, not less.

 

[HSTEd]

When, and if, an electric bus with the range to cover such a route is developed, would there not be such an electric train available too ?

Yes, so what advantage does the railway gain from its enormously expensive infrastructure?

I could not disagree more. By what realistic alternative means could the transport needs currently met by diesel trains be provided ?

A small increase in car, coach and lorry traffic?

 

[43021HST]

Diesel trains running an infrequent service on rural routes which are lightly used is most definitely not efficient. Now, of course, there is scope to improve efficiency on all such routes. But there's still often not a large travel market, and there is a need for capital spending to get there.

Not efficient compared to more efficient mainlines but if you say compared that efficiency to the dominant mode of transportation, efficiency, can be measured in overall space consumed per person, for the journey, or the amount of carbon per person, or even the measure of energy it takes to move that person, even the even the most inefficient railway is far more efficiant than road. Even if that railway is running more inefficiently than road, it's mere existance is a foot in the door for it to be invested in and run more efficiently, closing it removes that, leaving communities chained to the corpse of road transport.

Microplastic producing tyres are hardly in the same league as the current climate related issues.
And chosing a car over a train that will be expensive, slow and powered by ancient diesel engines makes perfect sense to the population.

Did you read my statement about battery power, and before you re-iterate my statement about electric car lithium batteries, let us compare the amount of lithium per person on a train vs the amount of lithium used per person in a car. It's all about economies of scale. Microplastic producing tires aren't key to the current climate issues but they're very much part of it. Which is how the climate crisis came about in the first place, lots of little things, just one more chimney here, just another road building scheme there.

"A small increase in car and lorry traffic"

 

[HSTEd]

Did you read my statement about battery power, and before you re-iterate my statement about electric car lithium batteries, let us compare the amount of lithium per person on a train vs the amount of lithium used per person in a car. It's all about economies of scale. Microplastic producing tires aren't key to the current climate issues but they're very much part of it. Which is how the climate crisis came about in the first place, lots of little things.

Yes, and given that lithium is a capital stock item and not consumed in operation, lithium shortages will predominantly be transitory during the transition and will likely abate rather rapidly.

I get paid by a research council to, amongst other things, conceive energy transitions.

 

[Falcon1200]

I'm unsure what you mean really?

Referring to the assertion I quoted that 'the diesel railway will be left to die', how would those routes and places which (by some future date when diesel trains are banned, totally) have not yet received electric, or other non-diesel trains, have their transport needs met when their 'train service is withdrawn' - as per your statement below ? For example, how many additional cars, buses, lorries etc would be required, and what level of additional road provision needed to accommodate the extra vehicles ? And, at the end of the day, would that actually be an environmental improvement ?

Nearly all train services will need to either transition from diesel to AC overhead power or be withdrawn.

 

[43021HST]

Yes, and given that lithium is a capital stock item and not consumed in operation, lithium shortages will predominantly be transitory during the transition and will likely abate rather rapidly.

I get paid by a research council to, amongst other things, conceive energy transitions.

I'm aware Lithium isn't a consumable as such but elements still need to be dug out of the ground and manufactured.

Are you the one on the council saying no?

 

[Domh245]

As opposed to the electric car with it's lithium batteries

As opposed to all that massive tonnage of non-energy intensive copper and steel to put wires up above every piece of rail.

I wonder if anybody has done the maths on 'embodied carbon' for an electrification scheme - and how it compares to batteries

 

[Starmill]

Not efficient compared to more efficient mainlines but if you say compared that efficiency to the dominant mode of transportation, efficiency, can be measured in overall space consumed per person, for the journey, or the amount of carbon per person, or even the measure of energy it takes to move that person, even the even the most inefficient railway is far more efficiant than road.

I'd like to see some numbers on this. Perhaps we could compare the energy costs of using a car manufactured in the last five years carrying every person individually who currently uses a train between Llandudno Jn and Blaenau Ffestiniog with the energy the train uses. Won't need many cars.

Even if that railway is running more inefficiently than road, it's mere existance is a foot in the door for it to be invested in and run more efficiently, closing it removes that, leaving communities chained to the corpse of road transport.

Sadly, regardless of where you're going in this country, the road also already exists.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd like to see some numbers on this. Perhaps we could compare the energy costs of using a car manufactured in the last five years carrying every person individually who currently uses a train between Llandudno Jn and Blaenau Ffestiniog with the energy the train uses.

Much as the line tends to be the big target for this sort of thing, loadings aren't that low, there are probably worse ones on a per-train basis. I suspect a quiet XC Voyager of an evening (they do exist) kicks out more assorted muck per head than the entire service for a day on the route.

Unless you're getting into the carbon footprint of maintaining the track?

 

[Starmill]

Much as the line tends to be the big target for this sort of thing, loadings aren't that low, there are probably worse ones on a per-train basis. I suspect a quiet XC Voyager of an evening (they do exist) kicks out more assorted muck per head than the entire service for a day on the route.

Unless you're getting into the carbon footprint of maintaining the track?

You can't withdraw the Voyager diagram though without also removing the services it works that are wedged. You can withdraw the branch service easily, and almost nobody would notice. Loadings generally are very low, even for a two car unit. The average picture is inflated by some summertime tourists.

We could easily say the same about Newquay to Par and Alness to Wick / Thurso, plus many others. As two car DMUs they have no future.

 

[HSTEd]

As opposed to all that massive tonnage of non-energy intensive copper and steel to put wires up above every piece of rail.

I wonder if anybody has done the maths on 'embodied carbon' for an electrification scheme - and how it compares to batteries

This information is available and its not that high.

Especially as on a low use line you could just embrace the BR era and use AWAC instead of copper.

 

[geoffk]

I was tempted to write that conversion to light rail would be an option for some short branch lines, but the two already considered for this treatment were already electrified - the Abbey Line (Watford Jn - St. Albans) and Isle of Wight. Both schemes appeared to founder on through ticketing to/from the heavy rail network.