The Times: Labour considering cuts to Restoring Your Railway and dropping HS2 Euston

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Wasn't the triple lock you dislike so often a Tory policy to shore up the pensioner vote, that Labour, probably reluctantly, had to promise to keep? Anyway like me you'll be pleased the winter fuel payment is going to be limited to those on means-tested benefits, so a reduction of about 3% in my state pension income. Hopefully I still get the £10 Christmas bonus, otherwise I don't know how I'll cope.

What an oversight!!! How on earth did they manage to overlook that matter. Is the ENCTS pass system not to be ended?

 

[edwin_m]

When I hear of "private finance" input into rail projects being made mention of in threads on a number of websites, I ask myself if I had a position of note in a multinational finance organisation, would I be committing billions of pounds sterling into a rail network that can be disrupted by rail union industrial action by the major two rail unions over a number of years?

I imagine the deal would be based on an availability payment. The infrastructure company would agree to provide and probably maintain the infrastructure, and be paid a certain amount for every hour or day it was made available to the operator. This means the infrastructure company takes the cost risk if their infrastructure fails or costs more to maintain than they expected, which in principle incentivises them to look at whole life cost instead of just building as cheaply as possible.

This is of course very over-simplified, one of the extra complications being that the infrastructure company would almost certainly want a track access charge to cover wear and tear according to the number of trains using it. But that would probably be cost-neutral, so the infrastructure provider doesn't care how many trains operate. Thus the government remains liable for the loss of revenue due to industrial action or other failure of the operator to run the trains.

Some will have noticed that this is exactly the model for the much-derided PFIs in hospitals and schools. The key to this is being sure that the efficiencies that the private sector brings to the process outweigh the extra costs such as profit and having to pay more to borrow than the government does. And also to ensure that there are no silly charges sneaked into the operating period, like what hospitals sometimes have to pay to have the infrastructure company change a light bulb.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

We shouldn't detract from those achievements, especially compared with the dismal lack of reopenings in England for almost the whole of the previous period of privatisation.

Okehampton was reasonably cost effective Ashington less so given it was an operating line that was suitable for passenger trains but now has to be bought upto full modern compliance as usual as soon as you add in new stations and call it a new service. If the industry really wants to reopen these lines (im not sure it does its was a Shapps whim) it needs to look at setting appropriate standards that reflect the lower line speeds and utilisation of such routes so they become affordable.

 

[Howardh]

Regarding “Restoring Your Railways” personally I’m surprised anyone took seriously any of the announcements of the last 12-24 months by the previous government anyway…

Comes under the category of "40 new hospitals"! But I would like the new government to sit down publicly with the North's mayors and give us a blueprint (or should that be redprint?) explaining just what are the plans up here for the next 5 years? Not juts infrastructure but industrial relations too.

 

[Tezza1978]

It clearly is an option, it might not be one that you want, but it is still certainly possible to do nothing at Euston.
The belief that the state had no alternative to pouring billions into HS2 is a big part of how we landed in this mess in the first place!

Of course its "possible" to do nothing at Euston. You could say that's an "option" - and leave the giant holes in the ground, the HS2 hoardings up and a half finished/half under construction existing Euston.

Its also "possible" to stop work on ALL of HS2 immediately, make all contractors redundant and leave the half finished tunnels, bridges and works to rot and be taken over by vegetation.

But that isn't going to happen in either case in a million years for all sorts of economic, contractual, social and political reasons.

This isn't a pie in the sky expensive rural railway reinstatement scheme or a road tunnel that is only an architects drawing.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Comes under the category of "40 new hospitals"! But I would like the new government to sit down publicly with the North's mayors and give us a blueprint (or should that be redprint?) explaining just what are the plans up here for the next 5 years? Not juts infrastructure but industrial relations too.

Im pretty sure what they will want to do is ensure that Mayors get a share of the pie however small to at least make what already exists more viable and desirable to passengers before they go pouring money into reopening old lines

 

[edwin_m]

Okehampton was reasonably cost effective Ashington less so given it was an operating line that was suitable for passenger trains but now has to be bought upto full modern compliance as usual as soon as you add in new stations and call it a new service. If the industry really wants to reopen these lines (im not sure it does its was a Shapps whim) it needs to look at setting appropriate standards that reflect the lower line speeds and utilisation of such routes so they become affordable.

From what I can tell, Okehampton was also not far off a total route rebuild, though made easier by not having any freight trains to keep operating during that time.

Bear in mind that to be competitive with the car and to link isolated communities into places with jobs, the train service must be reasonably fast and frequent and the number of passengers must justify that frequency. If lower infrastructure standards compromise that then it may not be worthwhile doing anything.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Its also "possible" to stop work on ALL of HS2 immediately, make all contractors redundant and leave the half finished tunnels, bridges and works to rot and be taken over by vegetation.

When was the last railway tunnel said to have "rotted" and how old would it have been when that occurred?

 

[yorksrob]

Income tax and CGT reduce your income but does not reduce your net wealth. Wealth taxes nibble away at your assets.
I have no objection to 20% of my income going to tax. I would be seriously dischuffed to have to sell my house so that 20% of its value could go to the exchequer

I guess many people's (myself included) will depend on how much wealth (as opposed to income) one actually has. Certainly when I started working a quarter of a century ago, Income Tax kicked in on quite low wages, so this has coloured my opinion on the subject.

Okehampton was reasonably cost effective Ashington less so given it was an operating line that was suitable for passenger trains but now has to be bought upto full modern compliance as usual as soon as you add in new stations and call it a new service. If the industry really wants to reopen these lines (im not sure it does its was a Shapps whim) it needs to look at setting appropriate standards that reflect the lower line speeds and utilisation of such routes so they become affordable.

Well I don't necessarily disagree with that, however going by other threads on here, regulation of infrastructure improvements continues to get more onerous than less. I would suggest that this needs political intervention, rather than being purely an "industry" issue.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

From what I can tell, Okehampton was also not far off a total route rebuild, though made easier by not having any freight trains to keep operating during that time.

Bear in mind that to be competitive with the car and to link isolated communities into places with jobs, the train service must be reasonably fast and frequent and the number of passengers must justify that frequency. If lower infrastructure standards compromise that then it may not be worthwhile doing anything.

Agree but there quite a difference between a 60mph railway and one with a speed upto 90mph though so just suggesting that the industry needs to get back to BR approach of cutting its cloth to suit situation. Yes people can say that was short sighted in the long run on some lines but first thing first is to get the line opened and see if the passengers do come. So no harm in passive provision where appropriate to allow a simpler future upgrade.

 

[yorksrob]

When was the last railway tunnel said to have "rotted" and how old would it have been when that occurred?

Tyler Hill tunnel on the Canterbury and Whitstable railway collapsed in the mid 1970's. This was a couple of decades after it closed !

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Comes under the category of "40 new hospitals"! But I would like the new government to sit down publicly with the North's mayors and give us a blueprint (or should that be redprint?) explaining just what are the plans up here for the next 5 years? Not juts infrastructure but industrial relations too.

In case anyone has forgotten, can I bring the name "Carillion" to the fore.

 

[Speed43125]

Could you clarify exactly what you mean by "future HS2 projects"? I do hope that you are not including the HS2a already-cancelled project in that particular scenario, as the mayors of Greater Manchester and Greater Scouseland would not be able to contain themselves with glee had mention been made of any positive news about it by the Chancellor today.

Sorry, that was unclear on my part. I was referring just to the issue of OOC or extending down to Euston.

I'm still unsure how the regional mayors might be able to save money on HS2 phase 2, short of alternate funding models that could also be pursued by central government, and without (one would hope) another expensive study of options.

Bear in mind that to be competitive with the car and to link isolated communities into places with jobs, the train service must be reasonably fast and frequent and the number of passengers must justify that frequency. If lower infrastructure standards compromise that then it may not be worthwhile doing anything.

On the Borders Railway, bridges were supposedly built to accommodate the RA3 of the multiple units that would serve the route only. Is this something that has been pursued anywhere else, or is it frankly a bit of a waste of time?

 

[HSTEd]

But that isn't going to happen in either case in a million years for all sorts of economic, contractual, social and political reasons.

This isn't a pie in the sky expensive rural railway reinstatement scheme or a road tunnel that is only an architects drawing.

There is no workable design for the Euston station and as far as I know, no contract has been signed requiring it to be constructed.

The cheapest option would likely be to make the site safe by blocking off any holes in the ground with metal fencing and then plant grass on any areas of exposed soil.
It wouldn't be the first time a major building site has lain abandoned for years.

Abandoning Euston construction would have nothing like the political hit that would come from risking yet more cost overruns by continuing with HS2 development. Especially in an environment where the chancellor has already taken an axe to numerous schemes.

 

[Snow1964]

In response to Chancellors statement, North Somerset Council have said still committed to Portishead line reopening, because although restoring railway fund has been cut, they are still subject to review by DfT

5:04pm - 29 July 2024
North Somerset Council remains committed to reopening the Portishead to Bristol rail line, despite news that the government have cancelled the Restoring Your Railway programme. Rail schemes within the programme will now be subject to review by the Secretary of State for Transport.

North Somerset remains committed to reopening the Portishead rail line

North Somerset Council remains committed to the Portishead to Bristol rail line

n-somerset.gov.uk

There is a thread more appropriate, but it is locked

Portishead approved

I would be surprised if route learning for that were happening given as you sat it's not approved. I would guess DB either have a new flow about to start or are about to take over one of the existing contracts. Mind you, didn’t quite a bit of work on Okehampton get going quietly before final...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[station_road]

They've not yet announced any "genuinely new nasties" if there are any.

Everything they've stated was already known amongst people who deal with such things - as the IFS has been saying throughout.

The IFS have said that things actually are worse than they thought (Ben Zaranko is a senior economist at the IFS)

https://x.com/BenZaranko/status/1817937159292117436

Need to see the detail, but I think Rachel Reeves has grounds to be cross. The in-year funding pressures do genuinely appear to be greater than could be discerned from outside. The £9bn contingency ‘reserve’ has seemingly been spent several times over. It’s a mess.

 

[12LDA28C]

Perhaps because the staff were just bought off, contributing to the financial pickle the railways find themselves in now? Jolly good for the staff, not so good for the taxpayers.

Perhaps because rail staff enjoyed pay rises that kept pace with inflation in line with agreed principles. I didn't hear taxpayers kicking up a stink about that prior to Covid and the associated decimation of revenue which is the reason for the 'financial pickle the railways find themselves in now'.

 

[Neen Sollars]

The recent Rail Focus You Tube piece suggested a decision at the end of the year regarding the paused sections of Phase 1, and perhaps a decision regarding Phase 2a to Crewe. Given todays announcement of the Budget on October 30th it is likely the infrastructure spending review will be completed by then. As far as I know Delta junction construction is ongoing, but how far north of that has been paused I am unsure. If this so called Black Hole gets bigger then its entirely possible everything north of Birmingham and OOC to Euston is mothballed indefinitely.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Tyler Hill tunnel on the Canterbury and Whitstable railway collapsed in the mid 1970's. This was a couple of decades after it closed !

In what year was that tunnel constructed and was the stated matter of "rot" that was mentioned in the earlier posting note in the run up to the eventual closure.

One sectional tunnel collapse that is well known to me if that of the "Black Harry tunnel" constructed in 1850 that ran from Molyneaux Brow to the Patricroft area in in the 1950s.
A ventilation shaft section supported by heavy baulks of timber collapsed owing to the rotting of those baulks over a long period of time. Two semi-detached houses in the Swinton area that had been built over the shaft area in question collapsed into the cavity, in the night, killing a number of those residents.

 

[edwin_m]

I'm still unsure how the regional mayors might be able to save money on HS2 phase 2, short of alternate funding models that could also be pursued by central government, and without (one would hope) another expensive study of options.

There may be some environmental mitigations that could be axed, but would attract opposition and potentially re-open the legal and planning processes. There may also be some simplification for lower speeds and service levels, but my feeling is it would be pretty marginal especially as local aspirations like a London-Liverpool link would probably have to stay.

To me the big risk with this idea is Burnham's underground station at Piccadilly. Regardless of whether it's a good idea in the abstract, re-routeing the tunnel to approach from the west instead of the east would certainly re-open the design and legal/planning process and I expect would delay things by at least five years.

On the Borders Railway, bridges were supposedly built to accommodate the RA3 of the multiple units that would serve the route only. Is this something that has been pursued anywhere else, or is it frankly a bit of a waste of time?

I don't know what they did (if anything) along those lines, but RA3 only causes problems for charter trains and possibly for engineering trains, but there may be some special measure to allow these on an occasional basis. In my view it would be a worthwhile cost saving for refurbishing existing bridges if a higher RA would incur the cost of replacement, but if replacement is needed anyway the full spec would cost very little more.

 

[zwk500]

On the Borders Railway, bridges were supposedly built to accommodate the RA3 of the multiple units that would serve the route only. Is this something that has been pursued anywhere else, or is it frankly a bit of a waste of time?

Limiting to RA3 makes sense if you don't expect any significant traffic above that. I imagine for the Borders railway having lighterweight structures was quite helpful given the terrain, however in other areas it'd make little different to put thicker beams in.
Charters, engineering and test trains can run under specific conditions (such as going slowly over bridges) to remain within RA3. However if you built Northumberland line to RA3 you'd cause all sorts of issues for freight.

 

[Tezza1978]

There is no workable design for the Euston station and as far as I know, no contract has been signed requiring it to be constructed.

The cheapest option would likely be to make the site safe by blocking off any holes in the ground with metal fencing and then plant grass on any areas of exposed soil.
It wouldn't be the first time a major building site has lain abandoned for years.

Abandoning Euston construction would have nothing like the political hit that would come from risking yet more cost overruns by continuing with HS2 development. Especially in an environment where the chancellor has already taken an axe to numerous schemes.

We are clearly arent going to agree on this so will leave this discussion here. But I think you will find the vast majority of people (even those who initially oppposed HS2 before works began) are not going to find your "solution" in any way remotely acceptable.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The recent Rail Focus You Tube piece suggested a decision at the end of the year regarding the paused sections of Phase 1, and perhaps a decision regarding Phase 2a to Crewe. Given todays announcement of the Budget on October 30th it is likely the infrastructure spending review will be completed by then. As far as I know Delta junction construction is ongoing, but how far north of that has been paused I am unsure. If this so called Black Hole gets bigger then its entirely possible everything north of Birmingham and OOC to Euston is mothballed indefinitely.

They'd be insane not to reach Handsacre.
Might be cutbacks on the scale of Curzon St and Interchange stations, though.
The full delta junction appears to be being built.
The Washwood Heath depot/control centre might be reduced as well.
No railway contracts have been let either.

 

[JonathanH]

Of course its "possible" to do nothing at Euston. You could say that's an "option" - and leave the giant holes in the ground, the HS2 hoardings up and a half finished/half under construction existing Euston.

Is it not conceivable that the site could simply be developed with social and owner occupied housing in the same way that the Battersea Power Station has been? How much money could that yield to offset the money already spent on HS2?

 

[HSTEd]

They'd be insane not to reach Handsacre.
Might be cutbacks on the scale of Curzon St and Interchange stations, though.
The full delta junction appears to be being built.
The Washwood Heath depot/control centre might be reduced as well.
No railwayl contracts have been let either.

Without Euston, how useful is Handsacre?

I'm not sure Old Oak Common is going to be a particularly attractive terminus for trains from the likes of Manchester or Scotland.
Unless the government are willing to take the hit from forcing use of OOC by withdrawing most of the AVanti trains from Euston (and I doubt they would be), I'm not sure anyone is going to want to use it.

At which point you might as well just optimise the infrastructure remaining as a Birmingham-OOC shuttle run at the highest practical intensity.

 

[Howardh]

Without Euston, how useful is Handsacre?

I'm not sure Old Oak Common is going to be a particularly attractive terminus for trains from the likes of Manchester or Scotland.
Unless the government are willing to take the hit from forcing use of OOC by withdrawing most of the AVanti trains from Euston (and I doubt they would be), I'm not sure anyone is going to want to use it.

At which point you might as well just optimise the infrastructure remaining as a Birmingham-OOC shuttle run at the highest practical intensity.

Would it not be attractive for those wanting to get to Heathrow? As for Euston it's such an ugly mess that if HS2 didn't run there in the end, all that extra space could be used to make it a first-class terminal?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

In the supporting document it actually quotes the railway budget as forecast as being 2.9B above forecast made up as 1.6B passenger and 1.3B maintenance. The latter is probably the delta to the CP7 settlement that wasn't known about when the budget was set.




It also says this on RYR

 

[urbophile]

Income tax and CGT reduce your income but does not reduce your net wealth. Wealth taxes nibble away at your assets.
I have no objection to 20% of my income going to tax. I would be seriously dischuffed to have to sell my house so that 20% of its value could go to the exchequer

For many people, nibbling away at their income would leave them seriously struggling. As long as 'wealth tax' is defined as taxing the seriously (indeed, obscenely) wealthy and not things like people's sole dwelling house and the like, no-one is going to suffer.

 

[HSTEd]

Would it not be attractive for those wanting to get to Heathrow? As for Euston it's such an ugly mess that if HS2 didn't run there in the end, all that extra space could be used to make it a first-class terminal?

How many trainloads of people will be going to Heathrow though?

Where will the paths come from on the classic system north of Handsacre.
EDIT:

You won't turn Euston into a first class terminal until you totally demolish the existing station and start again from ground level.
Unless such a project is in hand there is little point proceeding with HS2 related construction that would get in the way later.

 

[urbophile]

Would it not be attractive for those wanting to get to Heathrow?

What percentage of passengers from Birmingham, Manchester or indeed anywhere, would be heading for Heathrow? Not enough to justify OOC as a terminus, I'm sure.