This keeps getting raised and I understand the argument, however remember Wrexham and Shropshire only lasted a mater of months where LUMO been running 3 years now and GC since early 2000.One big difference between a TOC and Open Access (or indeed a FOC) that I'm surprised hasn't been mentioned yet is job security. Redundancies are extremely rare at TOCs - but as the former employees of Wrexham & Shropshire, and GC's aborted Blackpool depot will testify, things are a lot less guaranteed at open access. I'm not sure of any TOCs that have had redundancies for drivers, but it's definitely happened at Open Access and on the Freight.
In regards to the Blackpool route, that's different as it's not a new company it was a route. Those who were employed were found alternative jobs else where ie drivers back to Northern or Avanti - Non were made redundant.
This is why OAO have union representation in order for the union to assist in any redundancy. A number of TOCs have taken on Drivers that were made redundant from other FOCs - yes not a guarantee however I don't believe one day your a driver and the next on the street. There will be avenues that will help you.
If GC were going to make traincrew redundant then covid would of been the end.
It's a risk being in OAO but I don't agree that you'll be out of a job the next day