TOCs: scrap 2m rule, drop 'avoid public transport' message, Govt should fund rail until Sept 2021

[Socanxdis]

28 June

 

[carlberry]

TOCs are asking the government to relax the 2m social distancing rule for trains to increase capacity, and are rightly telling the government that the 'avoid public transport' message needs to be dropped as it's doing severe long term damage to public confidence in travelling by public transport.
They also want the government to underwrite the rail industry until at least September 2021, where as the current govt financial support in England runs out this September.

Coronavirus: Rail operators call for 1m distancing

A government order to avoid public transport will have terrible long-term consequences for the industry and environment, ministers have been told.Operators have urged the government to drop what they call its negative messaging about the risks of using public transport because of fears that it will

www.thetimes.co.uk

If would be easier to just ask each operator if it wanted to continue past Sep or not and, if not, allow them to terminate the franchise at that point.

 

[Cardiff123]

If would be easier to just ask each operator if it wanted to continue past Sep or not and, if not, allow them to terminate the franchise at that point.

I think a Conservative govt would rather keep paying private operators to run services, than have a government run and nationalised rail industry.

 

[Fisherman80]

The 2 metre rule must be relaxed. There are millions of people,like myself,who don't have a car and must use public transport.

 

[py_megapixel]

The 2 metre rule must be relaxed. There are millions of people,like myself,who don't have a car and must use public transport.

Unfortunately (and I very much don't agree with this position) the current philosophy seems to be "buy a car if you don't already have one". I strongly doubt it's going to be safe to relax the restrictions enough that every seat on a train can be filled. However there is a lot of fully functional rolling stock laying around which has just been made obsolete by the "REPLACE EVERYTHING" trend and could possibly used to lengthen services (in particular, Northern could take back their Pacers and the withdrawn 185s, 319s and 365s could be put to work somewhere)
I don't know if it's the same with buses.

 

[yorksrob]

HM Government can swivel if they think I'm going to go to the expense of buying a car.

 

[Bantamzen]

HM Government can swivel if they think I'm going to go to the expense of buying a car.

Ditto...

 

[py_megapixel]

HM Government can swivel if they think I'm going to go to the expense of buying a car.

Ditto...

Indeed, it's not really a satisfactory solution for most people.

 

[squizzler]

I have been digging on the internet and think I have discovered that the real reason the government want the railways clear of general public. It seems *they* are trying to hide that they are assembling a massive train "lifeboat" for the great and good - ready to scarper via the channel Tunnel the day before hard Brexit - and don't want the gricers out photographing it.

 

[Huntergreed]

Unfortunately (and I very much don't agree with this position) the current philosophy seems to be "buy a car if you don't already have one". I strongly doubt it's going to be safe to relax the restrictions enough that every seat on a train can be filled. However there is a lot of fully functional rolling stock laying around which has just been made obsolete by the "REPLACE EVERYTHING" trend and could possibly used to lengthen services (in particular, Northern could take back their Pacers and the withdrawn 185s, 319s and 365s could be put to work somewhere)
I don't know if it's the same with buses.

This just highlights even more why we absolutely MUST get the public transport network open again as a matter of urgency. I know that some car dealers have done more business than ever recently and a lot of people have bought a car out of fear of being not allowed back on transport until a vaccine due to the overly aggressive discouragement from operators and the government. If we don’t open the network soon, then we’ll have scared away so many passengers that we won’t make enough revenue and it’s going to be very, very difficult indeed to recover from that kind of situation.

 

[Enthusiast]

I still want to know how, at 5pm on a Friday evening when a couple of trains have been cancelled at London Bridge, they are going to prevent people piling into the next one that turns up. It doesn't matter how many seats they've got taped off or red ticketed. If there's space people will get on. The 2m (or 1.5 or 1 or whatever) guidance (it's not a rule) on public transport is a complete nonsense. It may be achievable some of the time but a lot of the time it won't be. That either needs to be accepted or the railway and bus operators might as well pack it in. At least then everybody will know where they stand - and it won't be at a bus stop waiting for bus after bus to sail past 80% empty.

 

[Class 33]

HM Government can swivel if they think I'm going to go to the expense of buying a car.

And for those who haven't passed their driving test, well there's no chance of them being able to get their own car anytime soon anyway. As for however long this social distancing nonsense goes on, people will be unable to take driving lessons(with professional instructors) and will also be unable to take driving tests!

 

[Bletchleyite]

This just highlights even more why we absolutely MUST get the public transport network open again as a matter of urgency. I know that some car dealers have done more business than ever recently and a lot of people have bought a car out of fear of being not allowed back on transport until a vaccine due to the overly aggressive discouragement from operators and the government. If we don’t open the network soon, then we’ll have scared away so many passengers that we won’t make enough revenue and it’s going to be very, very difficult indeed to recover from that kind of situation.

Dare I suggest that there may be an element of the fact that the railway up to lockdown was severely overcrowded in many places, and reducing demand may be somewhat cheaper than fixing that problem (because unless you charge commercial-level fares more passengers increases, not reduces, costs)? I'm not talking peaky overcrowding which people tend to put up with, rather the all-day overcrowding of the likes of Northern and TPE.

 

[yorksrob]

And for those who haven't passed their driving test, well there's no chance of them being able to get their own car anytime soon anyway. As for however long this social distancing nonsense goes on, people will be unable to take driving lessons(with professional instructors) and will also be unable to take driving tests!

That's a good point which I haven't thought of !

Learning to drive is a close proximity activity.

 

[Huntergreed]

With the upsurge in car ownership, I fear we may well be about to undo decades of railway advertisement, upgrades and encouragement as we see ridership fall to levels lower than ever before.

Admittedly it feels the heavy discouragement has done damage, and I do fear that at this point the damage has been done.

 

[yorksrob]

Dare I suggest that there may be an element of the fact that the railway up to lockdown was severely overcrowded in many places, and reducing demand may be somewhat cheaper than fixing that problem (because unless you charge commercial-level fares more passengers increases, not reduces, costs)? I'm not talking peaky overcrowding which people tend to put up with, rather the all-day overcrowding of the likes of Northern and TPE.

Whilst intractable overcrowding is undoubtedly a problem, once you put the whole industry into a death spiral, it takes a long time to reverse as the everyday activities become proportionally more expensive.

 

[py_megapixel]

That's a good point which I haven't thought of !

Learning to drive is a close proximity activity.

Indeed. That leaves cycling, which actually is a sensible solution for many (but not all) people. Except for the fact that it's unsafe in many places due to infrastructure which is at most lacklustre and at worst nonexistant.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed. That leaves cycling, which actually is a sensible solution for many (but not all) people. Except for the fact that it's unsafe in many places due to infrastructure which is at most lacklustre and at worst nonexistant.

Cycling is a threat to buses, not trains, with the exception of very local rail like Merseyrail/Metrolink. It is noticeable that small Dutch towns don't have that frequent a bus service - because everyone is cycling!

 

[py_megapixel]

Cycling is a threat to buses, not trains, with the exception of very local rail like Merseyrail/Metrolink. It is noticeable that small Dutch towns don't have that frequent a bus service - because everyone is cycling!

But it's still to be encouraged because it takes stress off public transport as a whole.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But it's still to be encouraged because it takes stress off public transport as a whole.

It's to be encouraged anyway, as unpowered transport is to be encouraged over powered transport in all cases. Walking too. Not only on the grounds of the environment, but on the grounds of public health...when was the last time you saw a fat Dutchman? And have you seen how much fried stuff they eat?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I have long held the view that the TOCs don't really have any right to additional government subsidy or underwriting; when they took on the franchise they agreed to provide a specific level of service at a specific cost, and if they fail to do so, whatever the cause, then that's on them.
However, this is a very extreme circumstance and possibly in this case they have a point.

Government restrictions are force majeure though, so the TOCs would not be liable for the fallout from the Covid-19 laws.
Without support they would just have shut down.

The DfT is not ready to take over the operation of the whole railway from September, you can't just magic a mega-Operator of Last Resort out of the woodwork.
Legislation also forces the government to do certain things (like refranchising) until a new basis is approved by parliament.
The DfT were working out what to do from the Williams review, and it is known there were tussles with the Treasury over the proposals.
I should think they will roll over the current arrangements for as long as it takes to work it all out, which is likely to be after the Covid crisis.
DfT will be quite content with the current TOCs continuing on the current basis for a limited time.

Long term, the current situation is unsustainable.
One day, probably before the end of the year, the Treasury will insist that a financially viable regime is re-established on the railway.
What that will look like I've no idea, but I doubt it will look like 1948 all over again as seems to be the presumption of some.
There is no guarantee the settlement for the railway will be as favourable as it was in 2019.
You just have to look at what is happening to the airline industry to see the current economic climate when patronage fades away.
So far, the railway is immune (as it was through the last economic crisis around 2010), while the rest of the economy takes a pasting.

 

[Bikeman78]

It's easy to forget that were not only living through a health crisis, but also a global climate crisis. We've just had the wettest winter on record followed by the driest and hottest spring on record. I suspect this summer will still be hot as well. The glaciers are melting. We can't encourage everyone into cars without consequences.
Not only that, toxic air pollution is known to increase vulnerability to the virus. So it's not in anyone's interest for our towns and cities to get toxic air from everyone driving.

Not to mention encouraging people to cycle on an ill equipped road network whilst also encouraging more people to drive their cars. Not much point in having one of the safest rail networks in the world if no one is using it.

 

[Bikeman78]

I still consider the biggest blow for public transport to be the success of working from home. From commuting every weekday to only travelling to a main office when required. Office commuters were a major income stream, I seriously doubt they will return to daily commuting after this is over.

If the unions go on strike, what impact will it have? The car parks are empty. The stations are empty. The trains are empty. The major stations are ghost towns. A traditional union picket line in front of a vacant rail terminus would sum up 2020 perfectly.

I think there will be mixed views on home working. I can't wait to get out of the house. I enjoy mixing with other adults in work. For the most part I enjoy the bike ride to get there. At work I look forward to going home again and to see the kids and the look of joy when I get home. All of that is gone. Now we're under each others' feet 24/7.

 

[Skymonster]

It's easy to forget that were not only living through a health crisis, but also a global climate crisis. We've just had the wettest winter on record followed by the driest and hottest spring on record. I suspect this summer will still be hot as well. The glaciers are melting. We can't encourage everyone into cars without consequences.
Not only that, toxic air pollution is known to increase vulnerability to the virus. So it's not in anyone's interest for our towns and cities to get toxic air from everyone driving.

It is totally bizarre that some folks seem to believe that protecting lives is more important than the economy right now, and yet also seem to believe that the climate is more important than lives. If we prioritise what has to be done to protect lives, then we do that - period. If on the other hand we accept that some collateral damage in terms of loss of life was inevitable during this virus crisis because compromises have to be made to secure the future, then it becomes more reasonable to prioritise various actions / changes and their consequences.

 

[Killingworth]

It seems the virus is being defeated, mmm. Maybe, but the pattern for viruses of this type seems to be seasonal and it may well be that when cooler and darker winter weather returns so will the much flagged second wave with a vengeance.

It's a nightmare to safely manage health without having dire effects on economic factors that will indirectly bring more health problems in all sorts of unknown ways.

All places where people gather in close proximity bring risks, as they have done since time began. The dreaded term "herd immunity" comes up quite often, but without an effective vaccine being available that's what will happen, eventually. In the meantime those most vulnerable will have to take extra care, avoiding busy trains and places where contact with other people is inevitable. We have to learn to live with it and manage the risks without stopping education and all the other things necessary for the longer term.

I don't see distancing at 1 or 2 metres as a viable long term rule or law, but the further we all keep apart, more often, the better. However, as the majority of working people are under 75, and the majority of those suffering the worst effects of the virus are over 75 (and male) we need to look at more effective targeting.

I say this as one who would normally be accompanying an old friend in that vulnerable bracket on a series of nostalgic rail trips around the north. We'll use cars and find other ways to fill our remaining years. The working population needs to move around, understand, and accept a degree of risks.

 

[JamesT]

That's a good point which I haven't thought of !

Learning to drive is a close proximity activity.

Doing some googling around it looks like at least some driving instruction firms are still providing lessons. Now that the restrictions on leaving the house have been lifted, I can't think of anything in the legislation that would prevent driving lessons.

However, driving tests are still currently suspended, so you can do all the learning you like but you won't be able to drive by yourself which stops it being useful as a public transport alternative.

 

[yorksrob]

Doing some googling around it looks like at least some driving instruction firms are still providing lessons. Now that the restrictions on leaving the house have been lifted, I can't think of anything in the legislation that would prevent driving lessons.

However, driving tests are still currently suspended, so you can do all the learning you like but you won't be able to drive by yourself which stops it being useful as a public transport alternative.

That's interesting. Certainly the guidance is currently not to share a car with people outside of your household, so I would have thought that this would make the learning process difficult.

 

[squizzler]

I know that some car dealers have done more business than ever recently and a lot of people have bought a car out of fear of being not allowed back on transport until a vaccine due to the overly aggressive discouragement from operators and the government.

Are we sure these are not rumours put about by an industry that has found itself badly on the back foot? Barely a single car has come off the production lines for months - so what is there to sell? - and I hear that the "Personal Car Plan" finance houses are haemorrhaging. Cities are converting carriageways to bike and foot routes. See this thing from the other side of the fence: the motor trade have their work cut out to stop the market being swamped with perfectly serviceable used models, and in that case, why would a motorist get a new car, unless they wanted a specific type such as an electric.

No businessman in his right mind ever says "oh, I'm twiddling my thumbs waiting for the phone to ring", even when they are doing just that, because perceived success is important to having actual success.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's interesting. Certainly the guidance is currently not to share a car with people outside of your household, so I would have thought that this would make the learning process difficult.

Guidance isn't enforceable, so people are at (legal) liberty to disregard it. The question is whether it counts as a meeting of 2 or more people indoors, which as the definition of "indoors" being used is "subject to the smoking ban" I would argue that since the last rule change it is (but probably wasn't before).

 

[yorksrob]

Guidance isn't enforceable, so people are at (legal) liberty to disregard it. The question is whether it counts as a meeting of 2 or more people indoors, which as the definition of "indoors" being used is "subject to the smoking ban" I would argue that since the last rule change it is (but probably wasn't before).

I know it's not enforcable, however it's still the guidance, so officially disproved of.