UK General Election 2024

[anthony263]

Nigel Farage has now publicly said that he will not stand in the next election as a Reform candidate or in general.

Nigel Farage rules out standing for Reform UK in general election

Reform leader Richard Tice says his party will contest 630 of the 650 seats up for grabs on 4 July.

www.bbc.co.uk

The Tories will be breathing a sigh of relief.

It was there rumours about farrage they were talking g about on some news outlets that they recon spooked the tories into calling this election now.

Plus if these tory rebels try to cancel this general election it be suicide for them as no doubt reform and other parties will tear them.down

 

[dangie]

Now that campaigning will soon be in full swing, and Sunak, Starmer etc will be travelling hundreds/thousands of miles around the UK, I’ll be interested to see what their manifesto is with regard to the environment.

Probably along the lines of ‘do as we say, not as we do’.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Now that campaigning will soon be in full swing, and Sunak, Starmer etc will be travelling hundreds/thousands of miles around the UK, I’ll be interested to see what their manifesto is with regard to the environment.

Probably along the lines of ‘do as we say, not as we do’.

Now that is a bit on the cynical side but as always, some truth to it.

 

[berneyarms]

x.com

twitter.com

One already not standing, surprisingly not Tory but Sinn Fein.

Michelle Gildernew is standing in the European elections in Ireland in the Midlands-Northwest constituency for Sinn Féin instead.

 

[Cross City]

I don't think "private turboprop" is any less pejorative. Just less familiar and more confusing to the average person.

It's also not private. It's a 32 year old Jetstream chartered from a British airline called Eastern.

Slightly odd choice of aircraft and airline tbh, but I supposed you can only hire whats available at short notice.

 

[YorkRailFan]

But the Conservatives have decided to ban Boris Johnson ally David Frost from standing as a candidate and from applying to stand in any of the constituencies left to nominate.The former Brexit secretary spent months criticising Rishi Sunak’s leadership of the party and country, even calling for him to be replaced.

Meanwhile, the Commons has been hit by a wave of more than 100 resignations, with 75 Tories announcing they’re standing down so far.

General election 2024 live: Sunak not ruling out Boris return as Mackinlay steps down

A Westminster exodus has seen MPs from all parties announcing they’re standing down from the general election

www.independent.co.uk

I'm sure Lord Frost will make a show out of this.

Tunbridge Wells MP Greg Clark has announced he will not stand for re-election.

Mr Clark has held the Kent seat for the Conservatives since 2005, being re-elected in 2019 with a 14,645 majority.

He made the announcement in a letter to his constituency chairman, which was also posted to social media on Friday.

Mr Clark wrote: "I have felt proud and grateful to be able to speak and fight in the House of Commons for the people of this beautiful place. I feel we have got things done."

Mr Clark's last parliamentary role was as chair of the Science, Innovation and Technology committee.

He had previously been a minister in the Levelling Up, Energy, Business and Treasury ministries.

General election: Greg Clark to stand down as Tunbridge Wells MP - BBC News

Mr Clark has been an MP since 2005 and was a minister for nine years, five of them in cabinet.

www.bbc.co.uk

Labour and the Lib Dems stand to gain here as the Tories will no longer have the advantage of having an incumbent who locals know.

Conservative MP Craig Mackinlay who lost his hands and feet after suffering a life-threatening episode of sepsis says he will not be seeking re-election.

The South Thanet MP only returned to parliament on 22 May, a day before the election was called, after eight months in recovery.

Mr Mackinlay said he came to his decision after "36 hours of intense soul searching".

He becomes the 117th MP to stand down ahead of the general election.

In a social media post, Mr Mackinlay said: "Whilst my heart tells me to stand again, there being so much unfinished business across local regeneration and national issues which are important to me, my head knows this to be impossible at this time."

MP Craig Mackinlay decides not seek re-election after sepsis recovery

Tory MP Craig Mackinlay returned to Parliament this week after disease led to amputation of his hands and feet.

www.bbc.co.uk

A very reasonable and understandable reason to stand down, I wish him a swift recovery.

 

[najaB]

It's also not private. It's a 32 year old Jetstream chartered from a British airline called Eastern.

Not privately owned, no. But also not a commercial flight. So it's fair to call it private. Most private jets flights are operated on a hire basis through NetJets and the like.

 

[Class 317]

I believe Wokingham is strong Remain, yes. This could have doubly counted against the Tories, firstly in itself, and secondly because Redwood is well known as a strong Brexiter. But now, I suspect an unknown candidate will do less well than Redwood would have done, on balance.

Plus the Lib Dem candidate was Philip Lee, ex-Tory and newly Lib Dem from nearby Bracknell. As an ex-Tory he could well have appealed to socially-liberal and economically-conservative constituents.

I suspect most Lib Dem gains will be from this part of the world, plus places such as Hazel Grove with a similar profile which they have formerly held.

Lots of new housing all over the Wokingham area over the last 10 years have likely changed the demographic.

 

[jfollows]

Michael Gove isn’t going to stand in Surrey Heath - and quite likely lose anyway.

 

[Gloster]

I understand that Sunak visited Belfast today and went to the Titanic Quarter. Sinking ship, anyone.

 

[brad465]

This image of Michael Gove doing the rounds is even more relevant:


Image of Michael Gove on his mobile with the caption "Yes, 5 grams. It's a leaving do."

 

[The Ham]

Oddschecker now have links to betting odds for every constituency in the UK, which could serve as a useful guide for which MPs are safe/in danger:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies

Although possibly not a good indicator as to who to vote for, locally the Tories are on 1:2 and Labour are on 2:1 with the Lib Dems on 33:1.

Last election
Tories 60%
Lib Dems 25%
Labour 10%
Others 5%

If the Lib Dems retained 20% then Labour would need 23% shift from the Tories to win (10% + 5% from Lib Dems + 23% =38%, whilst Tories would be on 37%), conversely 18% shift from Tory to Lib Dems would mean they would win (60-18= 42% vs 25+18= 43%).

With a bit of tactical voting and Reform splitting the Tory vote and it wouldn't need to be as large as that. However the point being that Labour have a harder task than the Lib Dems, so it's odd that the betting odds are the way that they are (but maybe a good bet to place).

 

[dangie]

Oddschecker now have links to betting odds for every constituency in the UK, which could serve as a useful guide for which MPs are safe/in danger:

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/uk-constituencies

Oh no I’ve just looked. In my area the Conservatives are 4/6 on favourites. Labour are 11/10.

 

[Ostrich]

Although possibly not a good indicator as to who to vote for, locally the Tories are on 1:2 and Labour are on 2:1 with the Lib Dems on 33:1.

Last election
Tories 60%
Lib Dems 25%
Labour 10%
Others 5%

If the Lib Dems retained 20% then Labour would need 23% shift from the Tories to win (10% + 5% from Lib Dems + 23% =38%, whilst Tories would be on 37%), conversely 18% shift from Tory to Lib Dems would mean they would win (60-18= 42% vs 25+18= 43%).

With a bit of tactical voting and Reform splitting the Tory vote and it wouldn't need to be as large as that. However the point being that Labour have a harder task than the Lib Dems, so it's odd that the betting odds are the way that they are (but maybe a good bet to place).

Very similar situation in my local constituency - last election results showed 64% voting Tory, 20% LibDem, 12% Labour, 4% other.
Despite the gap, it's more or less acknowledged this will be one of the LibDem's West Country target seats based on their successes at local level in the recent council elections.
Yet the odds are: 1/16 Tory, 9/1 Labour, 50/1 LibDems?

 

[SteveM70]

I understand that Sunak visited Belfast today and went to the Titanic Quarter. Sinking ship, anyone.

It really makes you wonder about the calibre of people looking after Sunak if they can’t spot the likely line of questioning going to the Titanic quarter

And talking of sinking ships, the latest rat is Andrea Leadsom. Are they going to be any of the big hitters left for a Portillo moment?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Andrea Leadsom latest to throw the towel in

https://x.com/andrealeadsom/status/1794088040148721827

Not going to many known Torys left at this rate

 

[nw1]

Michael Gove isn’t going to stand in Surrey Heath - and quite likely lose anyway.

I'd have said Surrey Heath would be an almost certain Tory hold as it's less "liberal" than some of the surrounding seats (more Brexity, IIRC) and was always uber-safe anyway. It's not like marginal Esher and Walton, Gove's majority has mostly been astronomical (though did decline in 2019).

I guess Gove has other reasons for leaving, in the same way that Heaton-Harris likely has (again, Daventry, just about no chance of anything other than a Tory hold).

Andrea Leadsom latest to throw the towel in

https://x.com/andrealeadsom/status/1794088040148721827

Not going to many known Torys left at this rate

On the other hand, it is curious just how many are leaving, including from safe seats such as Leadsom's.

Perhaps they're all a similar age and have just had enough of politics. Certainly few young MPs are stepping down, even in marginals. For example, James "102" Daly, holder of the smallest majority in the House, is standing for Bury North again. Chance of winning, about 1%, I suspect.

Oh no I’ve just looked. In my area the Conservatives are 4/6 on favourites. Labour are 11/10.

Dover is an interesting one though as it's typical of the sort of seat Labour will wish to win. I lost my free quota but Labour were odds-on favourites, might have been 1/3.

 

[edwin_m]

I guess a lot of the Tories who might still win in their seats are standing down because don't want to be opposition MPs. No opportunity to influence policy, or no opportunity to get their snouts in the trough, depending on your point of view.

The legislation setting the timing of US elections pre-dates Alaskan statehood by quite a margin (over 80 years!). In any case, each state runs its own election so there's no need to bring the ballots to a central location.

They need to return the counts of electors to a central location before they can decide who the president is. Before the electric telegraph that would have taken some time, and before railways even longer even though the places that were actually states extended much less far west at that time.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I guess a lot of the Tories who might still win in their seats are standing down because don't want to be opposition MPs. No opportunity to influence policy, or no opportunity to get their snouts in the trough, depending on your point of view.

Making it very difficult to predict who will be next Conservative leader as I assume Rishi will stand down.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I'm sure Lord Frost will make a show out of this.

Apparently it is untrue that David Frost has been banned from standing as an MP.
Although he'd have to give up his seat in the Lords first.

Personally I would like all the chief Brexiteers to be shown the door by the voters, after they diminished the UK with their infantile and damaging "oven ready" deal.
Also I expect some of the resigning Tory MPs will soon reappear in the Lords in Rishi's resignation honours - Gove and Leadsom being prime examples.

 

[najaB]

They need to return the counts of electors to a central location before they can decide who the president is. Before the electric telegraph that would have taken some time, and before railways even longer even though the places that were actually states extended much less far west at that time.

That's likely why inauguration used to be in March.

Also I expect some of the resigning Tory MPs will soon reappear in the Lords in Rishi's resignation honours - Gove and Leadsom being prime examples.

If the rumours that the election timing was driven by letters going it, I can see Rishi being vindictive enough to not put any names forth.

 

[brad465]

We're only 2-3 days into the campaign and already Sunak is having to take a break because of how awful it's gone for him so far:

x.com

x.com

BREAKING: Sunak is going to take a day off the trail tomorrow in a highly unusual move so early in the campaign. He will spend it at home in talks with his senior aides. But the Tories insist this is NOT a campaign relaunch.

 

[Thirteen]

Do the Tories have time to field candidates for the ones who stood down this week?

Eleanor Laing and Rosie Winter stepping down means that two of the Deputy speakers will need to replaced after the election.

 

[Gloster]

Do the Tories have time to field candidates for the ones who stood down this week?

Party HQ can always parachute people in as all candidates have to be on an approved list before they stand. The local party will be given a chance to hold a special meeting and some may already have people in mind, but others will end up with whoever HQ pushes their way. Cue desperate searching of Wikipedia by hopefuls to find out whatever they can about a constituency that they have held a long and deep attachment to, or even where it is.

The party organisations always have plans to find candidates for snap elections and by-elections, even though the numbers this time are much greater than usual. They probably will manage to get somebody for every seat: any failures will probably be due to bad luck or local cack-up.

 

[spyinthesky]

I struggle to find anyone to vote for, although I will.
In the last 20 odd years, nobody has ever canvassed at my door and I have only received 2 election leaflets both from the Tories.
What I want to listen to is a prospective MP who doesn’t talk about the opposition.
All sides are the same in that regard.
The ‘ You’ll be better off’ line stinks as well as the Tax grabbing methods just shift methods.
Travelling around for the last 3 days on a rover ticket I see that one of the biggest struggles will be to get people back in to work. The benefit brigade is fast becoming an army.
Little rant over, back to roving.

 

[sor]

Reports that Sunak is taking the day off - not for a short break or family time - but to discuss his ailing campaign with his (no doubt reassuringly expensive) advisors.

Sunak to take a day at home after hapless election campaign start

PM will spend first campaign Saturday holding private discussions but aides deny he is seeking reset

www.theguardian.com

I have to say, it's amusing to see the predictions come true. The guy has only ever failed upwards (he basically became chancellor by accident) and has only ever dealt with yes men - and now he's struggling when in contact with actual people facing actual problems. He's supposed to be a ultra safe seat warmer & Tory backbencher who just votes with the whips.

 

[telstarbox]

I struggle to find anyone to vote for, although I will.
In the last 20 odd years, nobody has ever canvassed at my door and I have only received 2 election leaflets both from the Tories.
What I want to listen to is a prospective MP who doesn’t talk about the opposition.
All sides are the same in that regard.
The ‘ You’ll be better off’ line stinks as well as the Tax grabbing methods just shift methods.
Travelling around for the last 3 days on a rover ticket I see that one of the biggest struggles will be to get people back in to work. The benefit brigade is fast becoming an army.
Little rant over, back to roving.

Who are the benefit brigade?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Travelling around for the last 3 days on a rover ticket I see that one of the biggest struggles will be to get people back in to work. The benefit brigade is fast becoming an army.
Little rant over, back to roving.

Out of interest, how did travelling (I assume, the railways) on a rover ticket show you that? If I go travelling by rail, what I tend to see is, lots of trains and stations

 

[dangie]

I understand that Sunak visited Belfast today and went to the Titanic Quarter. Sinking ship, anyone.

And in the afternoon was in the West Midlands. Plenty more Air Miles and CO2 produced.

 

[nw1]

Apparently it is untrue that David Frost has been banned from standing as an MP.
Although he'd have to give up his seat in the Lords first.

Personally I would like all the chief Brexiteers to be shown the door by the voters, after they diminished the UK with their infantile and damaging "oven ready" deal.

Indeed, it's a great shame the likes of Braverman, Badenoch and Gullis for example are not standing down. Far more deserving than some of the others that are actually doing so.

And talking of the oven-ready bomb, Boris "Oven-Ready" Johnson is claiming in the Mail that Starmer will be the most damagingly left-wing PM since the 70s, or something.
Mind you the Mail seems a bit confused, as its lead story is a semi-sympathetic one about Reeves, writing in today's edition.