Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

[bramling]

Is anybody on here NOT going to have the vaccination. Someone upthread mentioned that all is required to stick the needle in, push the plunger and withdraw the needle.
I think it takes a bit more than that.
Back in Sept/Oct I was invited to my Doctor's surgery to have the Flu Jab. It was like a production line. In one side and out the other. I am not saying that was wrong as they had plenty of people to deal with but I would have hoped that the person administering the injection was competent.
That may not have been the case as I am now suffering and have been for the last 3 months SIRVA. Shoulder Injury Related to Vaccination Administration. Look it up.
Because of that I am not have any more Injections in my arm or any where else in fact.
Forgot to mention I am in the 5th group on the priority list.

I still don’t want it. Unfortunately I have lost all confidence in the competence of this government, so am extremely reluctant to have a substance put into me on their say-so.

 

[matt]

Simply put yes once it is my turn I will have the vacinne.

 

[yorksrob]

I'd definitely have it.

Apart from any other motivations, I'm no spring chicken and quite fat, so crack on and get the pubs reopened.

 

[DerekC]

I'll be having the vaccine when it gets round to me. I have zero faith in this government's competence but a whole load more in our medical development expertise and in the regulator.

 

[35B]

I still don’t want it. Unfortunately I have lost all confidence in the competence of this government, so am extremely reluctant to have a substance put into me on their say-so.

I don't make the mistake of conflating the politicians with the administrative arms of government. I also take comfort from the fact that other regulators, given the same data, are also providing the same approvals.

And as vaccine testing is done by volume rather than duration, I draw no conclusions from how quickly these vaccines have been able to be tested - except to welcome the pace that's been used here, and wish that it were at other times.

 

[MikeWM]

Is anybody on here NOT going to have the vaccination.

If entirely up to me, I wouldn't, definitely not. But it is currently unclear what level of implicit or explicit coercion we will end up facing.

mRNA vaccines are an interesting idea and could turn out to be a really great thing, but I've no desire to take part in what is effectively a clinical trial when we can't yet know if there are medium- or long-term effects from this new approach. I don't see the balance of risk in my case determining that the vaccine is a lower risk than the disease. Obviously if I perceived my risk as being rather greater, I may reach a different conclusion as to where the balance lies.

While the risk of medium- and long-term effects is rather more known for a more 'traditional' type vaccine, I also don't see the balance of risk for me being in favour of having such a vaccine. I have concerns about the possibility of ADE, for example - an issue with previous attempts to create a vaccine for coronaviruses. The more 'traditional' vaccines also raise ethical issues around abortion, for me at least (though I acknowledge most people do not have such issues, and indeed even the Catholic Church have explicitly stated that it is permitted to take such vaccines, so I'm probably in a very small minority here).

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

There are some (shaky) "leaks" that the Government are hoping to have 13.5m vaccinations done by the second week of February - that is vaccinating all "vulnerable" people essentially.

 

[Yew]

There are some (shaky) "leaks" that the Government are hoping to have 13.5m vaccinations done by the second week of February - that is vaccinating all "vulnerable" people essentially.

That would be very fast...

 

[HSTEd]

There are some (shaky) "leaks" that the Government are hoping to have 13.5m vaccinations done by the second week of February - that is vaccinating all "vulnerable" people essentially.

Well if they approve the one shot J&J vaccine some time in January it might be achievable.

There are supposed to be 30m doses of that coming available in the next couple of months.

 

[Domh245]

That would be very fast...

Very fast, but just about achievable by the end of the week. If we assume a near constant 0.3 million pfizer vaccinations a week (reasonable based on what's been achieved so far), and then Ox/AZ does 1m this week, 1.5m the week after and then sits at 2m a week (based on news stories) we hit 13.5m at the end of week 6.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

There are some (shaky) "leaks" that the Government are hoping to have 13.5m vaccinations done by the second week of February - that is vaccinating all "vulnerable" people essentially.

Not that shaky as BoJo has confirmed everyone over the age of 70 plus frontline healthcare workers will be done by February half term.

Great to see this goal being set and one thing they generally focus on is making sure they meet these political targets so im actually feeling a bit more positive despite having to put us with the restrictions until mid feb as he said relaxations should be possible

 

[35B]

If entirely up to me, I wouldn't, definitely not. But it is currently unclear what level of implicit or explicit coercion we will end up facing.

mRNA vaccines are an interesting idea and could turn out to be a really great thing, but I've no desire to take part in what is effectively a clinical trial when we can't yet know if there are medium- or long-term effects from this new approach. I don't see the balance of risk in my case determining that the vaccine is a lower risk than the disease. Obviously if I perceived my risk as being rather greater, I may reach a different conclusion as to where the balance lies.

While the risk of medium- and long-term effects is rather more known for a more 'traditional' type vaccine, I also don't see the balance of risk for me being in favour of having such a vaccine. I have concerns about the possibility of ADE, for example - an issue with previous attempts to create a vaccine for coronaviruses. The more 'traditional' vaccines also raise ethical issues around abortion, for me at least (though I acknowledge most people do not have such issues, and indeed even the Catholic Church have explicitly stated that it is permitted to take such vaccines, so I'm probably in a very small minority here).

I don't understand the point about mRNA long term effects - it's no more than a different technique to trigger the immune response. The abortion issue is a bit niche, though - especially as the fetal cells used for are from a line taken decades ago.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Not that shaky as BoJo has confirmed everyone over the age of 70 plus frontline healthcare workers will be done by February half term.

Great to see this goal being set and one thing they generally focus on is making sure they meet these political targets so im actually feeling a bit more positive despite having to put us with the restrictions until mid feb as he said relaxations should be possible

The problem is that I really don't trust him. I don't believe that they'll hit this target, and even if they do I don't believe that he'd actually loosen restrictions (in any meaningful way). They've broken promises too many times now.

 

[Domh245]

I don't understand the point about mRNA long term effects - it's no more than a different technique to trigger the immune response.

It's the fact that it's a different technique that is the worry for many - saying it's just a means to triggering the immune response is true, but to make an unhelpful and over the top comparison, taking painkillers and chopping your leg off are both ways to get rid of a sore leg. The end result is the same, but the method of achieving it is completely different (and one far riskier than the other!).

That said, it's worth noting that mRNA isn't exactly new. Yes this is the first time they've been authorised as a vaccine, but earlier Phase trials in (eg this Phase I trail in 2008) which look at safety and effects have been going on for years, any significant issues would have shown up by now! They started putting it into mice as far back as 1990 going by figure 1 in this article

 

[Dent]

taking painkillers and chopping your leg off are both ways to get rid of a sore leg. The end result is the same, but the method of achieving it is completely different (and one far riskier than the other!).

In what way are the end results of chopping your leg off (ending up with no leg and probably far more pain than you started with) and taking painkillers (probably less pain and still having a leg) "the same"?

 

[Domh245]

In what way are the end results of chopping your leg off (ending up with no leg and probably far more pain than you started with) and taking painkillers (probably less pain and still having a leg) "the same"?

There is no longer pain in your leg - in one case because of the painkillers, in the other case because there's no leg (hence you can't feel pain in it). Like I said in the post, it's an exaggerated example and had I sat and thought about it longer I could probably have come up with a better example*. The point still stands though, you can't just point to the outcome of something and claim that because the outcomes are the same (triggering an immune response), everything else must be the same (the safety of the delivery method) - indeed that much should be clear already from the differing efficacies of the various vaccines to date

*Going from London to Birmingham - you could either bomb it down the M40 at 140mph or take a train, end result is the same in that you end up in Birmingham, but the risks associated with the delivery method are quite clearly not the same

 

[Class 317]

Not that shaky as BoJo has confirmed everyone over the age of 70 plus frontline healthcare workers will be done by February half term.

Great to see this goal being set and one thing they generally focus on is making sure they meet these political targets so im actually feeling a bit more positive despite having to put us with the restrictions until mid feb as he said relaxations should be possible

I think it going to be a few more weeks than this. After giving the Feb date BJ then clarified that an additional 2 weeks are needed for immunity to take effect and another couple of weeks for hospital admissions to drop before restrictions are likely to be eased.

Mid March is therefore looking more likely unfortunately.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

I think it going to be a few more weeks than this. After giving the Feb date BJ then clarified that an additional 2 weeks are needed for immunity to take effect and another couple of weeks for hospital admissions to drop before restrictions are likely to be eased.

Mid March is therefore looking more likely unfortunately.

The initial lockdown was (slightly) eased on 13 May - that's one month and 18 days from when the initial statutory instrument was passed. We still have significantly less cases than what was estimated mid-March (80-100k/day), so case numbers (and ultimately hospitalisations/ICU admissions/deaths) will take a shorter time period now to reduce to the same level when restrictions were eased in May 2020.

Realistically I expect schools to go back mid-February with a move to nationwide tier 4 (as it was before today), then areas reducing tiers gradually as infection rates allow for it into March/April, with nationwide tier 1 (or tier 0?) by July or August - in time for the school holidays.

 

[brad465]

Well if they approve the one shot J&J vaccine some time in January it might be achievable.

There are supposed to be 30m doses of that coming available in the next couple of months.

Is that 30m for us, or 30m in general where we only get a few million of those initially?

 

[DerekC]

The initial lockdown was (slightly) eased on 13 May - that's one month and 18 days from when the initial statutory instrument was passed. We still have significantly less cases than what was estimated mid-March (80-100k/day), so case numbers (and ultimately hospitalisations/ICU admissions/deaths) will take a shorter time period now to reduce to the same level when restrictions were eased in May 2020.

Realistically I expect schools to go back mid-February with a move to nationwide tier 4 (as it was before today), then areas reducing tiers gradually as infection rates allow for it into March/April, with nationwide tier 1 (or tier 0?) by July or August - in time for the school holidays

The "new variant" virus will make a difference to that, though. The best case may now be that cases plateau at the current rate but hospitalisations and deaths start to fall sharply once the vaccination of over-70s is complete.

 

[bramling]

The initial lockdown was (slightly) eased on 13 May - that's one month and 18 days from when the initial statutory instrument was passed. We still have significantly less cases than what was estimated mid-March (80-100k/day), so case numbers (and ultimately hospitalisations/ICU admissions/deaths) will take a shorter time period now to reduce to the same level when restrictions were eased in May 2020.

Realistically I expect schools to go back mid-February with a move to nationwide tier 4 (as it was before today), then areas reducing tiers gradually as infection rates allow for it into March/April, with nationwide tier 1 (or tier 0?) by July or August - in time for the school holidays.

I have a suspicion you’re probably spot on with those dates, however as has been discussed on here before the government is likely to encounter some pretty nasty dissent if we get to the start of the “summer” period with intrusive restrictions on movements. When I say summer I mean April(ish) onwards.

I was content to forego UK holidays in May/June time last year on account of the situation, but I am damned if that’s happening again. None of us know how long we have left.

Even more unacceptable is if we ever end up with a situation where vaccinated (elderly) people are allowed to do things like stay in hotels whereas unvaccinated (younger) people are barred. I can’t put into words how angry that would make me.

 

[DB]

Even more unacceptable is if we ever end up with a situation where vaccinated (elderly) people are allowed to do things like stay in hotels whereas unvaccinated (younger) people are barred. I can’t put into words how angry that would make me.

It would fit with the practice of setting people against each other - they seem to want to create a fractured society to take the heat off themselves.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I think it going to be a few more weeks than this. After giving the Feb date BJ then clarified that an additional 2 weeks are needed for immunity to take effect and another couple of weeks for hospital admissions to drop before restrictions are likely to be eased.

Mid March is therefore looking more likely unfortunately.

Yes but every time a person is vaccinated the benefits begin to be accrued and given >80 year olds are highest number of admissions the hospitalisation rate should show a reaction earlier as 80 year olds will be completed within a few weeks. It would be far better if they published this data daily now but they same very reticent to publishing data let alone a plan from the erstwhile Minister of Vaccination. Sturgeon was a bit more transparent in her briefing to Scottish parliament earlier and she exhibited a level of pushback on vaccination data although promised a weekly update. She cited difficulty in collecting information which is pretty poor if true they've had months to build a data collection system which I would have though was an essential prerequisite to manage the roll out anyhow.

 

[Yew]

Yes but every time a person is vaccinated the benefits begin to be accrued and given >80 year olds are highest number of admissions the hospitalisation rate should show a reaction earlier as 80 year olds will be completed within a few weeks. It would be far better if they published this data daily now but they same very reticent to publishing data let alone a plan from the erstwhile Minister of Vaccination. Sturgeon was a bit more transparent in her briefing to Scottish parliament earlier and she exhibited a level of pushback on vaccination data although promised a weekly update. She cited difficulty in collecting information which is pretty poor if true they've had months to build a data collection system which I would have though was an essential prerequisite to manage the roll out anyhow.

You can't publish what you don't have...

 

[HSTEd]

Is that 30m for us, or 30m in general where we only get a few million of those initially?

Tony Blair says its 30m for us.

 

[DustyBin]

Just to be clear in regard to this target of mid February to get the top four categories vaccinated, is that with a single dose of what’s supposed to be a two dose vaccine? Whilst I appreciate that one dose offers some level of immunity, will it be enough to significantly reduce the number of hospitalisations and deaths, bearing in mind the profile of the most vulnerable?

Another genuine question as I’ve no idea, does having millions of people walking around in effect partially vaccinated, increase the risk of the virus mutating into a vaccine resistant strain?

 

[BananaRepublic]

Mid February is an ambitious target, so if they fall short by a week or two, it shouldn’t be an issue....except the news media will probably turn it into one.
Regardless, the U.K. has done well so far compared with the slow start to vaccinations in most of Europe.
It’s been a right Horlicks in France (only a paltry 516 injections in the last week) and Macron is coming under fire.

Germany and Denmark consider delaying second Covid vaccine dose

Frustration at slow progress of EU inoculation programmes continues to mount

www.theguardian.com

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[brad465]

Tony Blair says its 30m for us.

I hope so, I couldn't find any info online about this beyond late phase trials for the vaccine in question.

 

[birchesgreen]

The problem i have with single (or delayed second) dose strategies is that we are always told we need to take the required course of a medicine as other wise the bug/virus could adapt and render the medicine ineffective. Considering how well this virus adapts and mutates it seems to be a potential time bomb if we play silly buggers, the last thing we want is the virus mutating to make the existing vaccines useless (i know we don't know enough yet about the virus or the vaccines to tell for sure if it could happen but it seems a big gamble to take to be honest).

 

[DustyBin]

The problem i have with single (or delayed second) dose strategies is that we are always told we need to take the required course of a medicine as other wise the bug/virus could adapt and render the medicine ineffective. Considering how well this virus adapts and mutates it seems to be a potential time bomb if we play silly buggers, the last thing we want is the virus mutating to make the existing vaccines useless (i know we don't know enough yet about the virus or the vaccines to tell for sure if it could happen but it seems a big gamble to take to be honest).

That’s my concern too. Whilst these fears may be unfounded, it does seem as though we’re yet again disregarding traditional thinking and practice. That hasn’t worked out particularly well to date....