Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

[takno]

Can you go by taxi? I realise there's a cost to that, but I had a drive-through flu jab last year and it was very quick (I think I was only stationary for a minute or so).

I suppose I *could*. I really don't see why I *should*. It's 5 miles out of town. It's right next to a train station and on a regular bus route from my house. Getting a taxi would be personally expensive and pretty absurd.

 

[LAX54]

It now appears that the new cut-off age for the AstraZeneca vaccine will be 40, which will impact all future age groups yet to be eligible to receive the vaccine. However this is contingent on the pace of the rollout not being delayed, implying that spending more time unvaccinated while waiting for the 'right' vaccine would be dangerous.

At this point, a bit of me thinks we would be better off just going the US way and letting people pick their vaccine. The process of "vaccinating the vulnerable to protect the NHS" is now over, nobody who hasn't yet received the vaccine is at high risk of hospitalisation; the herd immunity benefits are conferred regardless of whether an 18 year old or a 39 year old receives the jab, and so if that results in 18 year olds being vaccinated before 39 year olds because they are less choosy then who cares (fundamentally).

USA just starting to vaccinate 12 to 15 year olds, they seem a little ahead of the game compared to us. Pfizer is about to be 'approved', a move from the 'Emergency Approval' and, I think AZ will not be far behind, if I heard ABC News correctly today

 

[Domh245]

USA just starting to vaccinate 12 to 15 year olds, they seem a little ahead of the game compared to us. Pfizer is about to be 'approved', a move from the 'Emergency Approval' and, I think AZ will not be far behind, if I heard ABC News correctly today

The US seem to have much higher vaccine hesitancy than the UK, which is why in many states vaccinations have been open to all ages for a while, just to get doses into arms and push for herd immunity. Opening vaccinations to the 12-15 age range is an extension of this, as they almost start running out of people who are willing to take the vaccine otherwise

They've only recently drawn level to us in terms of total doses given, yet still lag behind in terms of people with a single dose by around 7%

It'd be a great surprise if they approved AZ at all, as it's not had even emergency approval in the US so far, is higher risk than their current vaccines (with supply not an issue), and has been dragged through the mud from a PR point of view.

 

[LAX54]

The US seem to have much higher vaccine hesitancy than the UK, which is why in many states vaccinations have been open to all ages for a while, just to get doses into arms and push for herd immunity. Opening vaccinations to the 12-15 age range is an extension of this, as they almost start running out of people who are willing to take the vaccine otherwise

They've only recently drawn level to us in terms of total doses given, yet still lag behind in terms of people with a single dose by around 7%

It'd be a great surprise if they approved AZ at all, as it's not had even emergency approval in the US so far, is higher risk than their current vaccines (with supply not an issue), and has been dragged through the mud from a PR point of view.

Maybe they are hoping to tag on the end of the Pfizer approval ! Although I see Biden has said they do not need the AZ vaccine, they have enough of the others.

 

[DannyMich2018]

We are still seeing a very high 2nd vaccine total daily which is great but still no sign of any increase in 1st doses. Still around 20 million adults to be vaccinated, although take up be lower than the older age groups. With less than 3 months for all adults to be offered it let's hope this can be achieved. In the coming weeks there should be much fewer people due 2nd doses due to few 1st doses recently so maybe speed up 1st doses then?

 

[HSTEd]

In the coming weeks there should be much fewer people due 2nd doses due to few 1st doses recently so maybe speed up 1st doses then?

This will be difficult, because virtually everyone who could be given Astra Zeneca under the new JCVI advice will have been given it already

 

[yorksrob]

Don't we have various other vaccines anyway, for those whippersnappers who've not had one yet ?

 

[Domh245]

We are still seeing a very high 2nd vaccine total daily which is great but still no sign of any increase in 1st doses. Still around 20 million adults to be vaccinated, although take up be lower than the older age groups. With less than 3 months for all adults to be offered it let's hope this can be achieved. In the coming weeks there should be much fewer people due 2nd doses due to few 1st doses recently so maybe speed up 1st doses then?

Looking at England only data, with the current (seven day average) rate of vaccines we won't see the "big shift" back to first doses until mid June (which would put us somewhere around the 30YO age group in terms of who's getting the doses) but after that point it'll quickly clear through - my model currently says we'd be able to first dose every person somewhere around the 27th of July, though before the bank holiday this was as low as the 10th.

What complicates matters is that we're pretty much exclusively giving pfizer and moderna first doses now. Moderna is constrained only by how quickly they can deliver, and Pfizer (should) in theory start to become available for first doses on a wider scale sooner than the rollout as a whole, as AZ came slightly later and did most of the heavy lifting for longer (Pfizer would have been the first to slow down first doses {which would now be due their second} to do second doses)

Don't we have various other vaccines anyway, for those whippersnappers who've not had one yet ?

Just Pfizer and Moderna, one of which is split between first and second doses, and the other of which is limited in the numbers we're receiving, although I'd seen suggestions that England/Scotland/NI had been stockpiling some pfizer doses in anticipation of it being needed for first doses for the younger population. It looks increasingly like Novavax will be too little too late however

 

[yorksrob]

Looking at England only data, with the current (seven day average) rate of vaccines we won't see the "big shift" back to first doses until mid June (which would put us somewhere around the 30YO age group in terms of who's getting the doses) but after that point it'll quickly clear through - my model currently says we'd be able to first dose every person somewhere around the 27th of July, though before the bank holiday this was as low as the 10th.

What complicates matters is that we're pretty much exclusively giving pfizer and moderna first doses now. Moderna is constrained only by how quickly they can deliver, and Pfizer (should) in theory start to become available for first doses on a wider scale sooner than the rollout as a whole, as AZ came slightly later and did most of the heavy lifting for longer (Pfizer would have been the first to slow down first doses {which would now be due their second} to do second doses)



Just Pfizer and Moderna, one of which is split between first and second doses, and the other of which is limited in the numbers we're receiving, although I'd seen suggestions that England/Scotland/NI had been stockpiling some pfizer doses in anticipation of it being needed for first doses for the younger population. It looks increasingly like Novavax will be too little too late however

Ah cheers for the background.

 

[Spamcan81]

Second jab received today, exactly 12 weeks after the first.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Do we have any idea why novavax is taking so long to gain approval? It is less urgent due to having other vaccines available or is it just a case of sometimes these things take longer, or is it not as good?

 

[HSTEd]

The same reason Johnson and Johnson has not been approved.

There is no pressure to do so because there is none available at this time.

 

[Darandio]

I finally got my vaccine appointment in Scotland. They've assigned me to a drive-through only centre, which is a bit useless since I don't have a car. The website for rebooking would be a lot more handy except that none of the centres have any availability at all at any point. I'm reluctant to just let my slot go (which presumably means that anybody trying to rebook into a drive-thru centre remains out of luck), and don't especially want to cancel for now. Not really sure what to do.

Quite jealous of how much better-run the English system seems to be

I wouldn't be so jealous of ours.

I've been eligible for over a week now and haven't been offered anything within 60 miles when trying. Been offered plenty of great little market towns in Yorkshire and County Durham that I know well and would happily drive to if I had a car, even just for the ride out.

Meanwhile there is a primary care hospital 600 yards from my front door where my local surgery is and they are vaccinating there........

 

[DelayRepay]

We are still seeing a very high 2nd vaccine total daily which is great but still no sign of any increase in 1st doses. Still around 20 million adults to be vaccinated, although take up be lower than the older age groups. With less than 3 months for all adults to be offered it let's hope this can be achieved. In the coming weeks there should be much fewer people due 2nd doses due to few 1st doses recently so maybe speed up 1st doses then?

I have my first vaccine in a couple of hours.

When I first tried to book, there were no suitable slots - they were either 20 miles away, or at times I should have been working. Whilst my employer would be quite happy for me to take a few hours off to be vaccinated, I didn't want to. So i kept checking and grabbed a Saturday lunchtime slot when I saw it. There can't have been many slots as someone else tried just after me and they were back to only seeing places that were 20 miles away.

Anyway, the point is that as we go down to the younger people, we are probably less 'desperate' to get a vaccine because of our lower risk. When the programme started, I know people who happily travelled for miles because they were desperate to get the protection of the vaccine as quickly as possible.

I know an awful lot of people in the 40 - 45 band who are being jabbed over the next week, so I would expect to see the first dose numbers climb back up again.

 

[Bikeman78]

Anyway, the point is that as we go down to the younger people, we are probably less 'desperate' to get a vaccine because of our lower risk. When the programme started, I know people who happily travelled for miles because they were desperate to get the protection of the vaccine as quickly as possible.

The only reason that I had any interest in having the vaccine was to enable me to travel abroad. As it turns out, that looks like being more hassle than it's worth.

 

[yorksrob]

I must admit, a key motivation for me is that I don't fancy that asomnia thing. Would ruin eating and drinking.

 

[Richard Scott]

The only reason that I had any interest in having the vaccine was to enable me to travel abroad. As it turns out, that looks like being more hassle than it's worth.

Agree, my motivation too but seems politicians still to keen on controlling our lives.

 

[ainsworth74]

I wouldn't be so jealous of ours.

I've been eligible for over a week now and haven't been offered anything within 60 miles when trying. Been offered plenty of great little market towns in Yorkshire and County Durham that I know well and would happily drive to if I had a car, even just for the ride out.

Meanwhile there is a primary care hospital 600 yards from my front door where my local surgery is and they are vaccinating there........

Yes it's bizarre isn't it? My mum had both her vaccinations at that primary care hospital. I know of some colleagues who got theirs either at the Riverside Stadium or at a community centre over in Thorntree near where they live. Meanwhile my bosses wife has had to go to York and another person working at a different agency we have close links to has had to go to Durham! The only thing I think I've been able to spot as a trend is that if you book online with the NHS you're getting carted off at great distances but if you're GP is ringing you to make the appointment they're at the primary care hospital. But even then it's a very dodgy trend. My colleague who got done at the Riverside booked it himself online for instance.

Of course I'm still waiting for my first jab

 

[yorksrob]

I received my text from the GP on the Friday afternoon and was jabbed in a surgery in my local town centre the following Tuesday. It all went very smoothly !

 

[takno]

To be fair, I've managed to switch to a jab in central Edinburgh on Monday. It just took a couple of hours of constant checking for appointments appearing, which didn't seem especially efficient

 

[Darandio]

Yes it's bizarre isn't it? My mum had both her vaccinations at that primary care hospital. I know of some colleagues who got theirs either at the Riverside Stadium or at a community centre over in Thorntree near where they live. Meanwhile my bosses wife has had to go to York and another person working at a different agency we have close links to has had to go to Durham! The only thing I think I've been able to spot as a trend is that if you book online with the NHS you're getting carted off at great distances but if you're GP is ringing you to make the appointment they're at the primary care hospital. But even then it's a very dodgy trend. My colleague who got done at the Riverside booked it himself online for instance.

Of course I'm still waiting for my first jab

Very bizarre. Just tried again and i've got within 60 miles this time, i've been offered Bramley or Hexham.

I'll keep trying and also wait in the hope my GP might ring at some point and offer it there.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Sounds like trying to get concert tickets!!

 

[Snow1964]

We are still seeing a very high 2nd vaccine total daily which is great but still no sign of any increase in 1st doses. Still around 20 million adults to be vaccinated, although take up be lower than the older age groups. With less than 3 months for all adults to be offered it let's hope this can be achieved. In the coming weeks there should be much fewer people due 2nd doses due to few 1st doses recently so maybe speed up 1st doses then?

2 issues at play here, firstly the second doses have to follow the first at 11-12 weeks, and of course, know how many are coming up. Generally it is about 450k per day Wed-Sat but lower (around 350k/day) Sun-Tue

Don’t know max capacity but it is around 600k (again with less early in week to allow staff days off), so tend to get 90-140k second doses.

Generally the remaining 22% (no doses yet) are under 40, so won’t be getting AZ, so becomes a supply question of the other types.

However the logic that once first round ends, there will not be two parallel lines is true, so the spare capacity (to give) means the 12 week gap should gradually reduce as long as doses are available.

Finally I believe there is a plan to lower the age from 18 to about 14 (age still to be decided), and whilst in size and stature this group may be similar so should be ok, the legal and regulatory process for minors is different, and not currently authorised in UK (but some other countries like Canada now including this group)

 

[Crossover]

I must admit, a key motivation for me is that I don't fancy that asomnia thing. Would ruin eating and drinking.

You may take it from me that it does, though I am slowly returning to my senses!

Yes it's bizarre isn't it? My mum had both her vaccinations at that primary care hospital. I know of some colleagues who got theirs either at the Riverside Stadium or at a community centre over in Thorntree near where they live. Meanwhile my bosses wife has had to go to York and another person working at a different agency we have close links to has had to go to Durham! The only thing I think I've been able to spot as a trend is that if you book online with the NHS you're getting carted off at great distances but if you're GP is ringing you to make the appointment they're at the primary care hospital. But even then it's a very dodgy trend. My colleague who got done at the Riverside booked it himself online for instance.

Of course I'm still waiting for my first jab

I would tend to agree. I similarly know of people contacted via their GP who have had appointments very close to home, whilst those who booked via the website directed to mass vaccinations centres that can be a distance away

 

[yorksrob]

You may take it from me that it does, though I am slowly returning to my senses!

Ah, I'd not known anyone who's had it previously.

Glad to hear that the senses are returning (albeit slowly) !

 

[kristiang85]

A bout of COVID might do me some good; I would be able to eat green vegetables without being disgusted by the taste and lose some of my lockdown belly

 

[nlogax]

A bout of COVID might do me some good; I would be able to eat green vegetables without being disgusted by the taste and lose some of my lockdown belly

Tbh I'd rather have proper 'flu for a couple of weeks and lose my appetite completely

 

[Crossover]

Ah, I'd not known anyone who's had it previously.

Glad to hear that the senses are returning (albeit slowly) !

Around 4 weeks or so ago. Very odd sensation when your nose isn't blocked!

A bout of COVID might do me some good; I would be able to eat green vegetables without being disgusted by the taste and lose some of my lockdown belly

I did joke at the time that it may have been a time to get into eating things like Marmite

 

[DannyMich2018]

2 issues at play here, firstly the second doses have to follow the first at 11-12 weeks, and of course, know how many are coming up. Generally it is about 450k per day Wed-Sat but lower (around 350k/day) Sun-Tue

Don’t know max capacity but it is around 600k (again with less early in week to allow staff days off), so tend to get 90-140k second doses.

Generally the remaining 22% (no doses yet) are under 40, so won’t be getting AZ, so becomes a supply question of the other types.

However the logic that once first round ends, there will not be two parallel lines is true, so the spare capacity (to give) means the 12 week gap should gradually reduce as long as doses are available.

Finally I believe there is a plan to lower the age from 18 to about 14 (age still to be decided), and whilst in size and stature this group may be similar so should be ok, the legal and regulatory process for minors is different, and not currently authorised in UK (but some other countries like Canada now including this group)

Yes whatever the situation there is no doubt the UK Vaccine programme is a total success with 2/3 of all adults having had one dose and 1/3 of adults having had both.
Personally I think it's a complete waste of money to vaccine 14-18 age groups (barring any in this group with health problems), these people will rarely fall ill or need hospital treatment.

 

[Snow1964]

Yes whatever the situation there is no doubt the UK Vaccine programme is a total success with 2/3 of all adults having had one dose and 1/3 of adults having had both.
Personally I think it's a complete waste of money to vaccine 14-18 age groups (barring any in this group with health problems), these people will rarely fall ill or need hospital treatment.

My understanding is the 14-17 age group tends to mix more (options groups at schools, general going out etc) than younger children. Becoming ill isn’t the worry, but carrying and spreading virus to others is the concern.

Having a cut off at 18th birthday is rather arbitrary if compare risks and effects of a 17 year old vs 18 year old.