Was the Pendolino worth it?

[Bald Rick]

Now here's a puzzle (for me, anyway).
Sometimes, I've been on a Pendo that has met with delay, and the TM has made announcements about revised arrival times, with lateness recovered incrementally at each forward calling point. On a quiet train, I asked the TM for a revised eta (a connection at Rugby would be nice) and she looked at a schedule on her 'phone which showed this situation (of steady recovery of lateness to a -5 at Euston). In reality, the trains always lost time, as you'd expect, being knocked by on-time trains at junctions and stopping services being given preference. But it begs the question; on what basis is this revised schedule calculated? Does it assume use of 'boost'?
Even without checks, a late running Pendo seems unable to recover lost time normally - as you point out the p - p times seem to be optimal.

The TM will usually simply add however many minutes late they are to the booked arrival times. Those with a bit more experience might make assumptions about recouping some of the performance/engineering / pathing allowances, or even use RTT which does that for you. Sounds like the TM you had did that. But estimates like that never take into account other traffic.

 

[Railperf]

Now here's a puzzle (for me, anyway).
Sometimes, I've been on a Pendo that has met with delay, and the TM has made announcements about revised arrival times, with lateness recovered incrementally at each forward calling point. On a quiet train, I asked the TM for a revised eta (a connection at Rugby would be nice) and she looked at a schedule on her 'phone which showed this situation (of steady recovery of lateness to a -5 at Euston). In reality, the trains always lost time, as you'd expect, being knocked by on-time trains at junctions and stopping services being given preference. But it begs the question; on what basis is this revised schedule calculated? Does it assume use of 'boost'?
Even without checks, a late running Pendo seems unable to recover lost time normally - as you point out the p - p times seem to be optimal.

you now have so many trains running on the network, that if a train loses its path, it will very often get stuck behind another 'on time' service.
Today was a classic example of that. My train left preston 7 mins late and as a result ended up caught behind a Liverpool to Birmingham (LNWR) service - which was booked to be 3 or 4 mins behind us. here - the lack of 125mph for LNWR train and a Crewe stop - extended our delay to 12 mins. But with nothing else in our way - we managed to make up time by eating up the additional 8 to 10 mins of additional time allowances in the schedule. BUT HAD THIS BEEN A PEAK MORNING SERVICE - it would have most definitely been caught behind other trains.

I can't comment on the TM app, but realtime trains seems to base ITS expected times on net rather than gross running times - when trains are running late.

But if the train is running to time, RTT almost always seems to expect the train to run to time and eat into the allowances unless there is a huge chunk of time added on at the end. or maybe it is more intelligent than that and calculates these based on average running times? I'll have to message tom to find out.

In this regard, RTT predicted we would catch the LM service up before Stafford with an identical expected passing time. But the LNWR service reached Stafford N junction earlier than planned where it was diverted off the mainline several mins before us, and so we sailed through Stafford with no delay.
I don;t think any of the apps are intelligent enough to work out how the delay will be affected by other trains. it isn't like formula one where you have a team of guys focused on keeping one train on path. and there are few locations where trains can pass each other. And sometimes trying to create these overtaking manoeuvres creates too many delay minutes to other services.
we had a problem at Crewe in that all the southbound platforms were occupied - meaning we had to come to a stand outside crewe waiting for the LNWR service to clear the platform!

And that pretty much proves the success of Pendolino and the other WCML TPE and LM/LNWR services - the line is almost saturated for capacity. It is a victim of the Pendolino's success!

 

[Merle Haggard]

Thanks for the replies to my question about the TMs' eta announcements.
I think, on digging my memory, that on the occasion when I spoke to the TM it was a Sunday and also she looked thoughtful when looking at her phone. I think she may have been just been mentally deducting allowances to calculate the revised arrival times and, due to engineering work/ diversions there may well have been some big pathing ones. This might hold true; if a train is say 4 minutes late and then there's a 5 minute pathing allowance, then logically it should retain its priority over the conflicting move ahead, even though it's late at points before the pathing allowance, (hope I've explained what I have in mind).

 

[Noddy]

Clearly worth it from a passenger perspective but tilt is obviously a ‘failure’ in the long term (never a success for XC) and the 390s will be the last stock to use it regularly.

People are forgetting that Pendolinos are being driven round in eco mode at much less than full power and still keeping to time. The acceleration on full power is not far behind a Class 80x.

Aren’t you comparing apples with apples there? The 800s in the government IEP scheme (ie the electric 801s) have always been ‘down rated’ to improve efficiency and reduce costs. The same reason the eco modes have been added to the 390s. We don’t (yet) have any pure electric 800s built outside the IEP scheme to compare directly with the 390s. If Branson came along today and ordered a fleet of replacement trains from Hitachi I imagine the 800s he’d get would be ‘specced up’. Avanti’s electric ones will easily outperform the 390s which is why they aren’t concerned with the loss of tilt.

 

[Railperf]

The Pendolino - as one element in a whole raft of upgrades to track, signalling etc is indeed successful. Bring back the old loco hauled stock, and you could not deliver the same level of speed, comfort and reliability and intensity of service.
Hypothetically - if you replaced Pendolino with a Class 800/802 fleet, journey times would still be slower in-spite of some some planned non-EPS speed increases.

 

[Railperf]

Avanti’s electric ones will easily outperform the 390s which is why they aren’t concerned with the loss of tilt.

We will see exactly if that is the case - as soon as they start running. But don;'t be surprised if they don't outperform the 390's.
If and when HS2 is built, the business case for maintaining a tilting fleet of trains and the associated trackside equipment comes into question. Depends what market will exist post HS2 on the 'classic' WCML route. The accountants will surely decide.

 

[edwin_m]

If and when HS2 is built, the business case for maintaining a tilting fleet of trains and the associated trackside equipment comes into question. Depends what market will exist post HS2 on the 'classic' WCML route. The accountants will surely decide.

HS2 is already being built south of Lichfield, so nearly all what are now the Avanti services will have to be HS2 compatible.

It's not only maintaining a tilting fleet, before very long it will be due for replacement. Procuring a new fleet which are non-standard not only in being to UK gauge but also in needing tilt will be that much harder to justify, if they no longer provide the fast end-to-end journeys the Pendolinos do now.

 

[Railperf]

HS2 isn't going to stop at Watford,Milton Keynes, Rugby, or any Trent Valley services. So Pendolino's will still be needed on the classic main line to provide a fast service - direct or connecting to the rest of the network. Unless we assume everyone is going to change at Birmingham - which will then effectively offer slower overall journey times if people have to transfer between new St and Curzon st

 

[tiptoptaff]

HS2 isn't going to stop at Watford,Milton Keynes, Rugby, or any Trent Valley services. So Pendolino's will still be needed on the classic main line to provide a fast service - direct or connecting to the rest of the network. Unless we assume everyone is going to change at Birmingham - which will then effectively offer slower overall journey times if people have to transfer between new St and Curzon st

But IETs accelerate much better, so they'll be better for 'stopping' trains than Pendolinos

 

[Railperf]

But IETs accelerate much better, so they'll be better for 'stopping' trains than Pendolinos

Okay... interesting ...what pattern of stops are you suggesting they will be faster on? How much faster do you predict? And how do you calculate that?

 

[CTS1990]

In response to the original question, I'd say it was worth it to increase the intensity of services on the WCML...especially the key London-Birmingham/Manchester corridors. Isn't it 3tph Eus-Picc during the day? That's quite an achievement, given it is a relatively high-speed service on Victorian infrastructure.

It wasn't 'worth it' for the workers at Washwood Heath who effectively lost their jobs immediately after the last Pendolino rolled off the production line.

 

[Bald Rick]

It wasn't 'worth it' for the workers at Washwood Heath who effectively lost their jobs immediately after the last Pendolino rolled off the production line.

They’d have lost them a couple of years earlier without it.

 

[CTS1990]

They’d have lost them a couple of years earlier without it.

That may be true, perhaps because Alstom agreed to keep Washwood Heath open after the GEC merger in the late 1980s. Nevertheless, once jobs like that are lost, it is incredibly difficult to retrieve them again, if ever.

 

[hexagon789]

But IETs accelerate much better, so they'll be better for 'stopping' trains than Pendolinos

That keeps being trotted out - but I'd like to see an actual comparison. Say 0-60 and 0-125 timings.

 

[tiptoptaff]

That keeps being trotted out - but I'd like to see an actual comparison. Say 0-60 and 0-125 timings.

The published technical figures compare their acceleration rates. With the IETs being superior. It's unsurprising - they're 20 years newer without the weight of tilt technology.

 

[hexagon789]

The published technical figures compare their acceleration rates. With the IETs being superior. It's unsurprising - they're 20 years newer without the weight of tilt technology.

Acceleration rates bring what, maxima? Average rate to 60? Average rate to 125?

No offence but I've seen figures which suggest they are either quite similar or the Pendolino has the edge overall to 125. Certainly when first introduced LNER stated the 801s were one minute quicker to 125mph than the IC225s, if that's the case that's about 4.25-4.5mins which seems quite similar to a Pendolino unless the 125 figures for those are incorrect.

Of course both could be incorrect which is why I'd like to see definitive times for average acceleration to 125mph rather than somewhat arbitrary acceleration rates which might only apply within a certain speed range.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Clearly worth it from a passenger perspective but tilt is obviously a ‘failure’ in the long term (never a success for XC) and the 390s will be the last stock to use it regularly.

You may well be right in the UK, but Alstom is still building the tilt design with the Avelia Liberty for Amtrak.
TASS also delivered ATP on the WCML, a requirement of the 125mph route upgrade.
I'm not sure how the ECML, MML and other over-110mph lines got away without implementing it (GWML had a pilot version).

 

[Bald Rick]

You may well be right in the UK, but Alstom is still building the tilt design with the Avelia Liberty for Amtrak.
TASS also delivered ATP on the WCML, a requirement of the 125mph route upgrade.
I'm not sure how the ECML, MML and other over-110mph lines got away without implementing it (GWML had a pilot version).

TASS isn’t ATP. It is overspeed protection.

 

[notadriver]

You may well be right in the UK, but Alstom is still building the tilt design with the Avelia Liberty for Amtrak.
TASS also delivered ATP on the WCML, a requirement of the 125mph route upgrade.
I'm not sure how the ECML, MML and other over-110mph lines got away without implementing it (GWML had a pilot version).

TASS is not ATP. It supervises speed limit adherence, not approach speeds to signals showing cautionary aspects.

 

[notadriver]

Pendolinos need to be in ‘boost’ mode to achieve 60 mph in approx 65 seconds. The nominal time is around 85 seconds. The IETs take just over 40 seconds to 60 mph. I’m guessing after that the IET has a slight edge over the Pendolino but not as much as up to 60 mph from rest.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I stand corrected!

 

[hexagon789]

You may well be right in the UK, but Alstom is still building the tilt design with the Avelia Liberty for Amtrak.
TASS also delivered ATP on the WCML, a requirement of the 125mph route upgrade.
I'm not sure how the ECML, MML and other over-110mph lines got away without implementing it (GWML had a pilot version).

But TASS isn't like ATP, it monitors only tilting and EPS speeds, it doesn't brake a train to a stand if it approaches a red too quickly.

As for the GWML and ECML they had 125 running for over a decade before ATP was trialled

 

[Trainician]

I must say that the Intercity 250 would've looked much nicer than the Pendolino....

InterCity 250 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And faster too

 

[Energy]

And faster too

It may have a top speed of 155mph but that doesn't mean it will do that in service.

 

[Railperf]

Pendolinos need to be in ‘boost’ mode to achieve 60 mph in approx 65 seconds. The nominal time is around 85 seconds. The IETs take just over 40 seconds to 60 mph. I’m guessing after that the IET has a slight edge over the Pendolino but not as much as up to 60 mph from rest.

I have timed an IET from 0 to 100mph in around 110 seconds. I have timed Pendolinos doing 0 to 100mph in 140 seconds. So IET can be 30 seconds quicker reaching the 'ton'. Both trains reach the 'ton' in under three miles..but what is surprising here is that the Pendolino is less than 15 seconds behind after the first 5 miles.
In the context of this discussion - every acceleration to 125mph from a station stop with an IET could gain 15 secs over a Pendolino. But for now IETs and 397s are limited to 110mph on the WCML and that means that after 10 miles, the Pendolino is back on level pegging and will start edging away at the rate if.approximately 1 min per 20 miles of 125 vs 110mph running.
We wait to see just how much of the WCMLs 110mph speed limits will bw raised to 125mph without tilt.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

So without speed limit increases, an 80x will be about 5 minutes slower than a 390 (3-4 minutes for a 221) for a 1-stop run between Euston and Crewe.
That's the present stopping pattern for Liverpool and Chester services, at Stafford and Milton Keynes respectively.
80x will have a slight advantage on the Birmingham loop, and on the peak services which stop in the Trent Valley.
I can't see an 805 beating a 221 off the wires (west of Crewe/Wolverhampton).
There must be some 80x/221 diesel comparisons in the West Country and in Scotland.

 

[The Planner]

I have timed an IET from 0 to 100mph in around 110 seconds. I have timed Pendolinos doing 0 to 100mph in 140 seconds. So IET can be 30 seconds quicker reaching the 'ton'. Both trains reach the 'ton' in under three miles..but what is surprising here is that the Pendolino is less than 15 seconds behind after the first 5 miles.
In the context of this discussion - every acceleration to 125mph from a station stop with an IET could gain 15 secs over a Pendolino. But for now IETs and 397s are limited to 110mph on the WCML and that means that after 10 miles, the Pendolino is back on level pegging and will start edging away at the rate if.approximately 1 min per 20 miles of 125 vs 110mph running.
We wait to see just how much of the WCMLs 110mph speed limits will bw raised to 125mph without tilt.

Not much, will a be a fair bit of 115-120 from what Ive heard, but level pegging with EPS is not easy.

 

[Bald Rick]

Not much, will a be a fair bit of 115-120 from what Ive heard, but level pegging with EPS is not easy.

Who is doing the study work into that?

 

[The Planner]

Who is doing the study work into that.

Will have a look next week.

 

[Trackman]

Back on subject to the original question- the answer is yes.
I've had 20+ years of the 'West Coast' MK3's, yes I missed them.
I was a bit apprehensive of the Pendolino, but my worries were soon gone.
I travelled a few years back on a GA set of MK3's- no happy memories returning- We sat in standard on the way back.
When I say sat, I meant knelt on the seats because of the length of my legs - in fact I stood up for most of the journey. Same in 1st, no leg room and low seat height.
So to me the Pendolino have been a god send.