What do you think could happen to the TSGN franchise once GTR's contract expires?

[GTR fail]

Although a bit early to be thinking about this, any ideas what will happen when the current Govia franchise ends on 14th September 2021. I heard rumours about LNER taking over GN services, but surely that can’t be true, can it?

 

[flitwickbeds]

Are you sure you didn't hear about TfL (not LNER) taking over GN branded services? I've seen that posted as speculation here and makes a lot of sense.

In general answer to your question though, I guess it depends on how and when the Williams review will be adopted. Expect GTR will be given extension(s) until there is a clear way forward with regards to the national franchising model.

 

[si404]

I heard rumours about LNER taking over GN services, but surely that can’t be true, can it?

LNER to Moorgate isn't true.

Are you sure you didn't hear about TfL (not LNER) taking over GN branded services? I've seen that posted as speculation here and makes a lot of sense.

Overground to Kings Lynn makes no sense!

both of you are treating GN as a monolith rather than two opposite ends of a spectrum left behind when Thameslink took the middle. Kings Cross to Kings Lynn is rumoured to go to LNER and Moorgate to Stevenage/Welwyn GC to London Overground.

 

[bramling]

LNER to Moorgate isn't true.
Overground to Kings Lynn makes no sense!

both of you are treating GN as a monolith rather than two opposite ends of a spectrum left behind when Thameslink took the middle. Kings Cross to Kings Lynn is rumoured to go to LNER and Moorgate to Stevenage/Welwyn GC to London Overground.

There’s several ways GTR could go, and at the moment no one really knows, or if they do they’re not telling!

1) Stays as is
2) Stays as is with 717 services going to LO
3) A Southern/GX and TL/GN split, recreating the old FCC franchise effectively
5) Stays as is with 365 and 387 services going to LNER
6) Stays as is with 717 services going to LO, and 365 and 387 services to LNER.

I would like to see (3) as that worked well before, but if I were going to lay a small bet on it I have a feeling it will be (2), although that depends on how the current government versus mayor spat plays out. Time will tell.

 

[Energy]

There have been rumours of LNER taking over GN services but they seem to be pure speculation on this forum, I doubt it will actually happen. I wouldn't be suprised if Thameslink took over the GN expresses though.

For rolling stock I expect the replacement of 313s, 455s and 365s. More 12 car 700s could be used by GN to replace the 365s and cascade the 387s, with the 6 387s from c2c and taking the 23 377s from SE, to replace 313s and 455s. This would make Southern fully electrostar apart from a few turbostars for the unelectrified lines and TL/GN fully Desiro.

 

[flitwickbeds]

Overground to Kings Lynn makes no sense!

Apologies, I was under the impression that Thameslink had taken over all the "long distance" routes on that side of the line and the only GN-branded ones remaining were the inner London/just-about-Hertfordshire services.

Happy to have been corrected.

 

[bramling]

There have been rumours of LNER taking over GN services but they seem to be pure speculation on this forum, I doubt it will actually happen. I wouldn't be suprised if Thameslink took over the GN expresses though.

For rolling stock I expect the replacement of 313s, 455s and 365s. More 12 car 700s could be used by GN to replace the 365s and cascade the 387s, with the 6 387s from c2c and taking the 23 377s from SE, to replace 313s and 455s. This would make Southern fully electrostar apart from a few turbostars for the unelectrified lines and TL/GN fully Desiro.

12-car 700s doesn’t work for replacing 365s, as not all these work in 12-car formation, and in particular 6 pairs stable at Letchworth which I don’t believe can take 12-car trains. Having said that, allegedly there is some discussion about the future of the Baldock services, with the paths allegedly already earmarked for LNER, however I’m not sure they could just vanish as they do happen to carry a significant volume of peak commuters, and provide 4tph peak from Knebworth and Welwyn North.

There doesn’t seem to be a straightforward way of replacing the 365s without creating a similar micro-fleet, though something involving the 379s could be an option.

Another couple of questions to resolve will be the 23rd and 24th Thameslink path, and in particular whether Cambridge to Maidstone is ever going to happen, and if not then that’s at least 8x 700/0 spare. Likewise if there’s any inclination to lengthen some 700/0s to perhaps lengthen the Rainham to Luton trains, or some of the 8-car Bedford to Brighton / Gatwick services.

One final question will be whether the 700 rear declassification will be continue. This will no doubt be a salient issue for many!

 

[43074]

Another couple of questions to resolve will be the 23rd and 24th Thameslink path, and in particular whether Cambridge to Maidstone is ever going to happen, and if not then that’s at least 8x 700/0 spare. Likewise if there’s any inclination to lengthen some 700/0s to perhaps lengthen the Rainham to Luton trains, or some of the 8-car Bedford to Brighton / Gatwick services.

I believe 'build back better' has prompted a rethink on the number of trains through the core (i.e. no more than pre COVID levels), but that's without Welwyn to Sevenoaks which has to be in place to free up capacity for remodelling Kings Cross; read into that what you will. Almost certainly no Maidstone.

 

[Minstral25]

There’s several ways GTR could go, and at the moment no one really knows, or if they do they’re not telling!

1) Stays as is
2) Stays as is with 717 services going to LO
3) A Southern/GX and TL/GN split, recreating the old FCC franchise effectively
5) Stays as is with 365 and 387 services going to LNER
6) Stays as is with 717 services going to LO, and 365 and 387 services to LNER.

I would like to see (3) as that worked well before, but if I were going to lay a small bet on it I have a feeling it will be (2), although that depends on how the current government versus mayor spat plays out. Time will tell.

(3) did not work well before and is still causing issues today. Having joint Southern and Thameslink on the Brighton Main line does not work for the intermediate stations at all. Skip stopping by both carriers at the same time means big gaps in service - needs to be one operator to join the dots during disruption.

 

[hwl]

(3) did not work well before and is still causing issues today. Having joint Southern and Thameslink on the Brighton Main line does not work for the intermediate stations at all. Skip stopping by both carriers at the same time means big gaps in service - needs to be one operator to join the dots during disruption.

Agreed circa 3/4s of GTR passenger wise involves 3rd rail land which everyone north of the Thames forgets when they make suggestions.

 

[hwl]

There’s several ways GTR could go, and at the moment no one really knows, or if they do they’re not telling!

1) Stays as is
2) Stays as is with 717 services going to LO
3) A Southern/GX and TL/GN split, recreating the old FCC franchise effectively
5) Stays as is with 365 and 387 services going to LNER
6) Stays as is with 717 services going to LO, and 365 and 387 services to LNER.

I would like to see (3) as that worked well before, but if I were going to lay a small bet on it I have a feeling it will be (2), although that depends on how the current government versus mayor spat plays out. Time will tell.

2) is the favourite at the bookies as both the SoS and Mayor are behind it.

The reasons for the LNER suggestion (hardly mentioned in the last 4 years) was
a) to reduce the franchise size so Southern and TL could be let on regular rather almost management contract (no longer an issue as everything will probably be (almost) management contract)
b) to give East Coast / VTEC (well before LNER) some additional commuter revenue and make it slightly less reliant on the long distance market (a bit more like West Coast intercity )

 

[Bald Rick]

2) is the favourite at the bookies as both the SoS and Mayor are behind it.

Although the latter doesn’t have the money for it. Or indeed anything.

 

[hwl]

Although a bit early to be thinking about this, any ideas what will happen when the current Govia franchise ends on 14th September 2021. I heard rumours about LNER taking over GN services, but surely that can’t be true, can it?

The contract has a 1 year extension option which DfT fully intend to use if they haven't already.

TfL taking over Moorgate services from GTR has a DfT suggested date post September 2021 which is a subtle hint...

GTR is the least of DfT's franchise issues currently.

 

[hwl]

Although the latter doesn’t have the money for it. Or indeed anything.

But still working on GN Moorgate service devolution is a condition of the DfT bailout of TfL...

 

[Hadders]

I'm no cheerleader for GTR but since the shambles of 2018 (which to be fair wasn't all their fault) they do seem to have improved significantly.

My preference would be to leave things as they are, the last thing we need, just as we're starting to see the benefits of years of disruption (London Bridge, Brighton Mainline, St Pancras rebuild etc), is another restructure.

Moorgate services to TfL make some sense but that's as far as I would go.

 

[JonathanH]

My preference would be to leave things as they are, the last thing we need, just as we're starting to see the benefits of years of disruption (London Bridge, Brighton Mainline, St Pancras rebuild etc), is another restructure.

Added to the fact that with the Croydon work a possibility over the next decade cooperation between the Southern and Thameslink operation is a necessity and potentially more disruption.

 

[bramling]

I believe 'build back better' has prompted a rethink on the number of trains through the core (i.e. no more than pre COVID levels), but that's without Welwyn to Sevenoaks which has to be in place to free up capacity for remodelling Kings Cross; read into that what you will. Almost certainly no Maidstone.

Presumably the Welwyn to KX trains could terminate at Finsbury Park and reverse via Canonbury if no better solution could be found? However, moving the Welwyn trains to the core doesn’t in itself free up a platform - it would just about be possible to reverse all four Cambridge / Welwyn stopping services via King’s Cross off one platform without the timetable having to be recast.

If Maidstone Cambridge never happens then that’s 8x 700s which in theory could be redeployed and backfilled, though to restore 365s would require either SDO fitment of lengthening of the four remaining village platforms.

 

[bramling]

(3) did not work well before and is still causing issues today. Having joint Southern and Thameslink on the Brighton Main line does not work for the intermediate stations at all. Skip stopping by both carriers at the same time means big gaps in service - needs to be one operator to join the dots during disruption.

Fair points. When I said worked well I was thinking from the perspective of a north-of-the-river user.

 

[paul1609]

Marshlink electrified and back to Southeastern hopefully.

 

[StephenHunter]

717s going to LO would be a case of the Northern City Line coming full circle.

 

[choochoochoo]

But still working on GN Moorgate service devolution is a condition of the DfT bailout of TfL...

Where are the details of the conditions of the bailout ?

Seems odd one of the bailouot conditions would be to spend even more money and taking on more expenses and risk. But then I wouldn't put anything past this current government.

 

[Surreytraveller]

I believe the Azuma thingies were originally going to be cleared to go to Kings Lynn. Don't know if that is still planned, but gives some idea of the original intention when the GTR franchise was originally created

 

[bramling]

Where are the details of the conditions of the bailout ?

Seems odd one of the bailouot conditions would be to spend even more money and taking on more expenses and risk. But then I wouldn't put anything past this current government.

Everything going on with TFL the moment is a game of how much muck can be dropped on Sadiq Khan. Whether this is simply devious game-playing or a realistic attempt to discredit him so much in the faint hope Bailey has a realistic chance of winning the forthcoming election is for conjecture, however be in no doubt that what’s going on is mischievous. Therefore it’s hard to read what actual implications there might be for TSGN or LO.

 

[py_megapixel]

If the Kings Cross services are to be transferred to anyone (and I think they should be; they're a slightly odd outcrop of the TSGN franchise which really doesn't belong) then surely it should be Greater Anglia?

LNER doesn't really fit as they're first and foremost an inter-city TOC. London Overground doesn't fit as they go too far out of London.

 

[choochoochoo]

Everything going on with TFL the moment is a game of how much muck can be dropped on Sadiq Khan. Whether this is simply devious game-playing or a realistic attempt to discredit him so much in the faint hope Bailey has a realistic chance of winning the forthcoming election is for conjecture, however be in no doubt that what’s going on is mischievous. Therefore it’s hard to read what actual implications there might be for TSGN or LO.

At least it's 'world beating' mischief !!

 

[choochoochoo]

If the Kings Cross services are to be transferred to anyone (and I think they should be; they're a slightly odd outcrop of the TSGN franchise which really doesn't belong) then surely it should be Greater Anglia?

LNER doesn't really fit as they're first and foremost an inter-city TOC. London Overground doesn't fit as they go too far out of London.

I think you can say goodbye to peak Kings cross-Welwyn services as that doesn't really fit an intercity profile. Also Kings Cross -Royston ?? Where would they sit ? Unless they get the LO treatment, but that would mean running them with 717s

 

[matt_world2004]

If the Kings Cross services are to be transferred to anyone (and I think they should be; they're a slightly odd outcrop of the TSGN franchise which really doesn't belong) then surely it should be Greater Anglia?

LNER doesn't really fit as they're first and foremost an inter-city TOC. London Overground doesn't fit as they go too far out of London.

Is Stevenage really further than reading is from London?

 

[choochoochoo]

Is Stevenage really further than reading is from London?

I don't think its so much the distance to stevenage, it's probably more to do with the fact these services stop between london and stevenage.

 

[ScottGallagher]

I would put everything at Kings Cross under LNER and in time do the same setup at Euston. This would probably have happened by now had the SRA continued to exist.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't think its so much the distance to stevenage, it's probably more to do with the fact these services stop between london and stevenage.

In London commuting terms journey times are more relevant than absolute distance, really.