What is the Covid-19 Exit Strategy of 'Zero Covid' countries such as Hong Kong?

[Dent]

@OzLoon - please don't assume that this kind of guff is typical of what people in the UK think. Unfortunately the Covid threads on this Forum have been taken over by a group of self-appointed experts from Google Uni who turn every thread into an echo chamber for their extreme opinions. And like most such people, the labour under the delusion that they represent majority opinion. I already posted a couple of pages back the relative death rates and vaccination statistics from UK, Australia and New Zealand. The fact that the death rate in UK is about 20 times that in Oz and 200 times that in NZ rather tells its own story. Now, incompetent though the UK government was in handling the first year of the pandemic, you couldn't realistically have applied the total isolation approach here, but nevertheless the Oz and NZ approach deserves respect. And so does the fact that most people in the UK have gone along with the rules and guidance because they respect each other, unlike the egocentrics who spout rubbish like the post above.

Most of your post is nothing but ad hominem abuse, do you actually have anything constructive to contribute to a rational, civilised discussion?

The relevant state and territory governments are putting serious resources in to make it happen. It will be a huge job. WA, Queensland, and the NT (which all have large First Nations' populations) are vast places.

That doesn't answer whether they are realistically going to achieve it in any sensible timescale. We are now nearly two years in, and well over a year since vaccines became available, if it still hasn't been done then is it realistic to assume it ever will be? Where do you draw the line and change the plan if this target never gets met?

 

[seagull]

@OzLoon - please don't assume that this kind of guff is typical of what people in the UK think. Unfortunately the Covid threads on this Forum have been taken over by a group of self-appointed experts from Google Uni who turn every thread into an echo chamber for their extreme opinions.

Are you deliberately obtuse or just a troll? Your previous post was comprehensively debunked and yet you made no response or reply, simply coming back now to post more waffle.

For reference, however:

There's no point accusing others of being in an echo chamber when you are equally unwilling to assess things on any level other than what you want to hear, by dismissing other's postings.

For example, no country on earth can reasonably sustain the level of lockdown and restriction that NZ has, without the potential for severe implications for both the mental and physical health of its citizens. Just because the numbers who die as a direct or indirect result of that may not be quantified accurately doesn't mean it doesn't happen.

In addition, vaccines aren't all, as indeed we are rapidly discovering and backed by scientific evidence, that natural immunity caused by exposure to a virus is significantly better than that provided by vaccine alone.
So the NZ approach, while looking better on paper for now, may have longer-term consequences which ultimately mean no benefit at all compared to the likes of Europe or the UK.
At least keep an open mind, if nothing else.

https://ijr.com/cdc-study-natural-immunity-significantly-protection-covid/

"A study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released on Wednesday shows that those who have recovered from COVID-19 have more protection against infection than those who have only been vaccinated."

 

[Bantamzen]

@OzLoon - please don't assume that this kind of guff is typical of what people in the UK think. Unfortunately the Covid threads on this Forum have been taken over by a group of self-appointed experts from Google Uni who turn every thread into an echo chamber for their extreme opinions. And like most such people, the labour under the delusion that they represent majority opinion. I already posted a couple of pages back the relative death rates and vaccination statistics from UK, Australia and New Zealand. The fact that the death rate in UK is about 20 times that in Oz and 200 times that in NZ rather tells its own story. Now, incompetent though the UK government was in handling the first year of the pandemic, you couldn't realistically have applied the total isolation approach here, but nevertheless the Oz and NZ approach deserves respect. And so does the fact that most people in the UK have gone along with the rules and guidance because they respect each other, unlike the egocentrics who spout rubbish like the post above.

@DerekC You know before you get all giddy and excited at the thought of putting someone down, you might at least get some basic facts right. For a start, and if you had been paying more attention to this thread, you might have picked up on how covid related deaths are recorded are very different from country to country. In Australia for example, deaths are recorded as confirmed or suspected with no recovery time, or in other words a medical professional has to state that it is their belief that the patient died as a direct result of the virus. Whereas here we record deaths as anyone who tested positive within 28 days of death. Imagine if we recorded deaths of people who wen to the supermarket within 28 days of passing?

As for you representing the whole of the UK, its very presumptuous to say the least. However you may have a point. It does seem that many UK residents are still tied to the belief that the virus is simply the worst thing to happen in all of humanity, and that anyone who for one moment questions any government's response to it must be an anti-vaxxer or evil minded soul. However if you had bothered to pay any attention to the various threads on here instead of playing holier than thou you would have realised these threads are not echo chambers, but well thought & researched discussions. And you would also have realised that there is no "the science" that politicians often claim to follow, but much debate and discussion amongst those in the scientific community about the effectiveness, or lack of, political based restrictions. Or you could just swallow up the fearmongering that your preferred media outlets spoon feed you. Oh and while we are on the subject, you don't need to have degree on a subject to be able to comment or understand it. Amazingly it is perfectly possible to use search engines like Google (and that is all that it is for your information) to find that there is much debate on the best way to tackle viral pandemics. The subject is not binary.

Finally an important point. Do you really think that governments down under deserve respect for treating its own citizens worse than war criminals. Again, had these threads been read properly you would have seen that in NZ the government had monthly lotteries for it's own citizens abroad to be allowed back. Do you think that is a good thing? And over in Australia their government shoved people returning into windowless hotel rooms, fed them substandard food, with security guards ready to deal with them if they so much as opened their door to get some fresh air. Yeah, sounds like a nice place to be doesn't it? And these are just two of many examples of the authoritarian, and often ridiculous methods these administrations have employed to "defeat the virus". But guess what? They failed, they fell flat on their faces. But still you admire them? I suggest this says far more about you that it does of me, or indeed any other member of these forums who have dared to question the narrative.

 

[43096]

Just to show how dumb the restrictions are - and all to do with politics rather than public health - at the Australian open tennis attendances have been allowed to rise to 80% of capacity from 65%. Of course, that’s nothing to do with Ash Barty (an Aussie) being in the women’s final.

 

[yorksrob]

I think that with the exception perhaps of New Zealand, most Western countries, including Australia, are converging on the same conclusion about Omicron. It's pointless trying to control it through non-clinical means. It's time to move on and get on with life.

 

[Dent]

It's quite revealing that after nearly a year, and 904 posts in this thread, still no one has actually come up with an answer to the question in the thread title. It is increasingly obvious that none of these governments actually have an exit strategy.

All that has been suggested so far is that Australia might be waiting for some remote native tribes to be vaccinated, but there has been no:

• Official confirmation that that really is the target to remove all measures
• Indication that it is a realistic target
• Confirmed review date when a new plan will come into play if that target is still not met
• Indication of what that new plan will be

It's seriously worrying that some people are happy to put themselves entirely at the mercy of thesse governments despite them obviously not having any plan. These governments certainly don't deserve respect for the way they have reated their own citizens, they need to be put under pressure to actually think about what they are doing and come up with a long-overdue plan.

 

[yorksrob]

Hasn't Australia removed restrictions in most of its territory ? I get the impression they're winding them down, albeit at different rates across the states.

 

[OzLoon]

(snip)

Finally an important point. Do you really think that governments down under deserve respect for treating its own citizens worse than war criminals.

(snip)

What Grade A bollocks, at least in respect of the Oz national government - as the only self-declared Oz citizen who has so far contributed to this discussion - I can let you know that you are so hopelessly off the mark in that assessment you may as well be a member of the England cricket team.

The Oz government - at a national level and in respect of its own constitutional responsibilities - has made errors, but when we say goodbye to them in May, I reckon it'll be because of more serious errors across other areas of its responsibility combined with government misconduct. No Oz citizen with whom I've discussed how they are getting on has ever said they thought they were being treated worse than war criminals. Some have done it tough, but none has moaned about it adversely affecting them the way it seems to adversely affect you, 20,000kms away in a different hemisphere, season, time-zone.

We had the issues explained to us as well as we their best thoughts on how to get through things by competent health officials, we had (mostly State/Territory) governments manage the regulations to assist in achieving that, and we generally bought into it by compliance and mutual support.

There were people and political players who sought to break the consensus, but they lacked credibility and have failed to get citizens' support. I've seen and heard a few of them who want me to get angry about things, but they are making as much headway with me as you are.

Ash Barty is who we admire, not cranky man-boys.

 

[Bantamzen]

(snip)

What Grade A bollocks, at least in respect of the Oz national government - as the only self-declared Oz citizen who has so far contributed to this discussion - I can let you know that you are so hopelessly off the mark in that assessment you may as well be a member of the England cricket team.

The Oz government - at a national level and in respect of its own constitutional responsibilities - has made errors, but when we say goodbye to them in May, I reckon it'll be because of more serious errors across other areas of its responsibility combined with government misconduct. No Oz citizen with whom I've discussed how they are getting on has ever said they thought they were being treated worse than war criminals. Some have done it tough, but none has moaned about it adversely affecting them the way it seems to adversely affect you, 20,000kms away in a different hemisphere, season, time-zone.

We had the issues explained to us as well as we their best thoughts on how to get through things by competent health officials, we had (mostly State/Territory) governments manage the regulations to assist in achieving that, and we generally bought into it by compliance and mutual support.

There were people and political players who sought to break the consensus, but they lacked credibility and have failed to get citizens' support. I've seen and heard a few of them who want me to get angry about things, but they are making as much headway with me as you are.

Ash Barty is who we admire, not cranky man-boys.

And tell me, did you defeat the virus...?

It's quite revealing that after nearly a year, and 904 posts in this thread, still no one has actually come up with an answer to the question in the thread title. It is increasingly obvious that none of these governments actually have an exit strategy.

All that has been suggested so far is that Australia might be waiting for some remote native tribes to be vaccinated, but there has been no:

• Official confirmation that that really is the target to remove all measures
• Indication that it is a realistic target
• Confirmed review date when a new plan will come into play if that target is still not met
• Indication of what that new plan will be

It's seriously worrying that some people are happy to put themselves entirely at the mercy of thesse governments despite them obviously not having any plan. These governments certainly don't deserve respect for the way they have reated their own citizens, they need to be put under pressure to actually think about what they are doing and come up with a long-overdue plan.

Judging by the responses from @OzLoon I'd say they forgot to have an exit strategy, and are now blaming & insulting everyone else in the hope of distracting from the fact that their zero-covid strategy was a complete failure.

 

[OzLoon]

And tell me, did you defeat the virus...?

Is that the only KPI?

 

[Bantamzen]

Is that the only KPI?

That was the strategy down there, so covid spreading there means your authorities failed.

 

[OzLoon]

That was the strategy down there, so covid spreading there means your authorities failed.

What's been illuminating these last few days has been how badly we Aussies have missed being told what to do, and how and when to do it, by English people these last hundred years or so. Oh boy - did we ever take a wrong step in 1901!

 

[Bantamzen]

What's been illuminating these last few days has been how badly we Aussies have missed being told what to do, and how and when to do it, by English people these last hundred years or so. Oh boy - did we ever take a wrong step in 1901!

Nobody is telling you Aussies what to do, if you want to lock yourselves away forever go ahead and knock yourselves out. What has happened on this thread is people have criticised the approach taken down under to "defeat the virus", something which your country has completely failed to do. That's it, politicians down under convinced themselves that they could play King Canute and make the virus just go away so they didn't have to deal with it. And when they failed, they took it out on people like you with all manner of restrictions to stop what was completely inevitable. Put shortly, you've been played.

At least back here in the UK there have been enough people willing to question the political narrative to make the prospect of an Aussie / NZ style approach at best uncomfortable. People who recognise that all these restrictions have an effect, and more importantly a price. And before you reach for the "what cost human life" argument, covid restrictions can, and do have had a massive effect on human lives. From practically shutting down the NHS to anything other than covid, to the hundreds of billions spent trying to slow the virus. Hundreds of billions that we taxpayers will sooner or later have to pay for. The same will be true where you are, what price will Australia pay for the failed zero-covid project. How many jobs will be lost, how many lives ruined because your politicians were too stubborn to admit that they could not defeat nature?

 

[Cowley]

Thread reopened. Please treat others with respect even if you don’t necessarily agree with each other.
Thank you.

 

[island]

A family who travelled from New Zealand to Australia for a Christmas trip suffered bad luck when NZ reimposed hotel quarantine on travellers from Australia, but it's gotten worse and worse. With extensions due to members of the group testing positive, most of them will now have spent forty days in hotel quarantine before they get out and can start living their lives again.

From 10 days to 40: Family's MIQ stay stretches

Five days into their initial 10-day MIQ stay in Auckland, the family received bad news.

www.nzherald.co.nz

...These goalposts shifted again on Friday when Sam also received a positive test result, resetting the clock again.

The family now face a scenario where Luca will be eligible for release on February 5, followed by Sam on February 14.

Mrs Williamson and Maya would have another 10 days in isolation on top of that, although their clock could be reset again if either tested positive.

That means the pair will be in quarantine for at least 40 days....

 

[Bantamzen]

A family who travelled from New Zealand to Australia for a Christmas trip suffered bad luck when NZ reimposed hotel quarantine on travellers from Australia, but it's gotten worse and worse. With extensions due to me,hers of the group testing positive, most of them will now have spent forty days in hotel quarantine before they get out and can start living their lives again.

From 10 days to 40: Family's MIQ stay stretches

Five days into their initial 10-day MIQ stay in Auckland, the family received bad news.

www.nzherald.co.nz

That is just insane, how can the NZ authorities justify anything like that?

 

[MikeWM]

Has anyone mentioned Charlotte Bellis yet? A reporter, New Zealand citizen, pregnant, previously was critical of the Taliban for their treatment of women.

New Zealand won't let her back in despite her difficult circumstances *and even though she is a New Zealand citizen*, so she's had to go to the one country she can otherwise legally reside - Afghanistan. Where apparently she is being treated very well.

When the Taliban - despite her previous criticism - are treating her better than her own home country, there's really something wrong going on.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/rejected-zealand-reporter-turns-taliban-82549239

A pregnant New Zealand journalist says she turned to the Taliban for help and is now stranded in Afghanistan after her home country has prevented her from returning due to a bottleneck of people in its coronavirus quarantine system.

In a column published in The New Zealand Herald on Saturday, Charlotte Bellis said it was “brutally ironic” that she'd once questioned the Taliban about their treatment of women and she was now asking the same questions of her own government.

“When the Taliban offers you — a pregnant, unmarried woman — safe haven, you know your situation is messed up,” Bellis wrote in her column.

 

[island]

Has anyone mentioned Charlotte Bellis yet? A reporter, New Zealand citizen, pregnant, previously was critical of the Taliban for their treatment of women.

New Zealand won't let her back in despite her difficult circumstances *and even though she is a New Zealand citizen*, so she's had to go to the one country she can otherwise legally reside - Afghanistan. Where apparently she is being treated very well.

When the Taliban - despite her previous criticism - are treating her better than her own home country, there's really something wrong going on.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/rejected-zealand-reporter-turns-taliban-82549239

She has today been offered a hotel quarantine slot to return to NZ at the start of next month.

 

[MikeWM]

She has today been offered a hotel quarantine slot to return to NZ at the start of next month.

No doubt because she has shown up how ridiculous their policies are.

I continue to find it incredible that some countries think it is acceptable *in any way* to not allow its own citizens to reenter their country at any time. That there is an 'emergency' doesn't cut it.

 

[Berliner]

No doubt because she has shown up how ridiculous their policies are.

I continue to find it incredible that some countries think it is acceptable *in any way* to not allow its own citizens to reenter their country at any time. That there is an 'emergency' doesn't cut it.

Yes I am surprised at countries allocating timed entry to their own citizens. It's certainly not something you'd ever have expected from what are supposed to be free, democratic societies. Indeed in any other time, countries such as Aus and NZ would be calling for sanctions if another place tried to ban citizens from freely going home!

 

[Bantamzen]

New Zealand are finally starting to crack open the door a tad and peek around it. Travel restrictions may soon start to be lifted, but before anyone starts scanning for those flights it is going to be a painfully slow process.

Covid: New Zealand unveils phased border reopening plan

It first allows fully jabbed New Zealanders in Australia to return, later expanding to other visitors.

www.bbc.co.uk

The key elements of the plan are as follows:

• Step 1: Fully vaccinated New Zealanders from Australia can return home from 27 February
• Step 2: Fully jabbed citizens from all other countries are able to arrive from 13 March. This also applies to a number of critical and skilled foreign workers
• Step 3: Up to 5,000 international students are allowed into the country from 12 April
• Step 4: Australians and all other visitors who can normally travel visa-free to NZ are expected to be able to travel to the country no later than July
• Step 5: Begins in October and includes all other visitors and students who normally require a visa

 

[yorkie]

New Zealand are finally starting to crack open the door a tad and peek around it. Travel restrictions may soon start to be lifted, but before anyone starts scanning for those flights it is going to be a painfully slow process.

Covid: New Zealand unveils phased border reopening plan

It first allows fully jabbed New Zealanders in Australia to return, later expanding to other visitors.

www.bbc.co.uk

It's all for show and part of the usual rhetoric of blaming other countries and pretending the virus can be "controlled".

Sadly many New Zealanders will probably be fooled by this.

The reality is once community transmission really gets going, it will make absolutely no difference how many people visit from abroad.

 

[nedchester]

It's all for show and part of the usual rhetoric of blaming other countries and pretending the virus can be "controlled".

Sadly many New Zealanders will probably be fooled by this.

The reality is once community transmission really gets going, it will make absolutely no difference how many people visit from abroad.

But but but Saint Jacinda "did the right thing" etc etc.

You get those in the UK who think that could have been done here despite the UK being a major travel hub, having high population and connections to Europe as opposed to being a couple of islands at the a**e end of the World!

 

[Cdd89]

I expect the remaining steps will be accelerated. The tourist industry has only tolerated travel restrictions because of the domestic benefits. As those evaporate, and especially as citizens go abroad rather than holidaying domestically, the pressure will be immense.

I continue to find it incredible that some countries think it is acceptable *in any way* to not allow its own citizens to reenter their country at any time. That there is an 'emergency' doesn't cut it.

I think this falls under the (growing) category of “rights so obvious, nobody thought they needed to be protected”.

As Covid recedes, I wouldn’t be surprised to see constitutional or legislative changes in some countries to protect some of the rights that turned out to be rather divisible.

 

[nw1]

But but but Saint Jacinda "did the right thing" etc etc.

You get those in the UK who think that could have been done here despite the UK being a major travel hub, having high population and connections to Europe as opposed to being a couple of islands at the a**e end of the World!

I fail to understand why NZ isn't even freely letting in its own citizens. That is a level of militancy one wouldn't expect for a country of that nature, which has always quietly got on with its life and tended not to exhibit anything even approaching extremism. Ironically I suspect the likes of Putin and Erdogan have been considerably more liberal in that respect.

I can only guess Ardern has such a strong feeling of guilt about the spread of Covid, which for her trumps the consequences of their extreme border policy (as in not even letting citizens in), that her government is quite prepared to take such actions. It shows the consequences of having an over-strong sense of morality (which I suspect is the case for Ardern): if you do, you start hurting people in other ways and end up causing more damage than if you had taken a more easy-going approach.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Ironically I suspect the likes of Putin and Erdogan have been considerably more liberal in that respect.

It says something when people we in the western world call dictators are more liberal over covid restrictions than our supposedly democratic leaders.

 

[Pakenhamtrain]

Just to show how dumb the restrictions are - and all to do with politics rather than public health - at the Australian open tennis attendances have been allowed to rise to 80% of capacity from 65%. Of course, that’s nothing to do with Ash Barty (an Aussie) being in the women’s final.

It was 100. Then it went to 50 if the session hadn't sold out. Then 65 then 80.
Still I had a good time at the tennis:

https://i.imgur.com/g3CRZJf.jpg

Hasn't Australia removed restrictions in most of its territory ? I get the impression they're winding them down, albeit at different rates across the states.

Only thing hanging around at this point is masks indoor, indoor density limits and pointless QR codes. We've reached a point of yea it's spreading not much we can do. Just try to limit the damage somewhat.

Everyone can travel everywhere except to the Independent Republic of Western Australia. WA stated the eastern states were in "Effectively in lockdown" Sure people were restricting thier movement for a bit but lockdown it wasn't.
The reality is the WA health system struggles without covid as is.
In the same time of this mythical effective lockdown I went to the Cricket:

https://i.imgur.com/da0OU4l.jpg

And the AFLW:

https://i.imgur.com/SmI0oap.jpg

Peak was a touch quiet:

https://i.imgur.com/9FxkzYs.jpg

Oh and went to the pub:

https://i.imgur.com/NgfnCjb.jpg

Realistically things are back to normal somewhat. They're relying on RATs at the moment and a bit of honesty from the public to report positive ones.

In Oz, the main actions have been managed by the States and Territories, because it's they who manage hospitals, rather than the Feds. The Feds' responsibility has been to obtain and distribute vaccines because they manage imports. The Feds have also picked up most of the social transfer-payment obligations to those affected - businesses and employees - because they manage unemployment and social security payments. They also run border control, so they locked out visitors, and locked in residents for quite a time, to reduce risk of spread.

State and Territory leaders together with the PM, formed a 'National Cabinet' to try to reach policies to apply to the whole country regarding covid strategy - stem? halt? I'm not a fan of the current national government which has made some poor moves over the period, but I am of my current State government, which has put heaps of effort into getting people vaxxed.

I thought very early on in the pandemic that the global nature of the illness will allow us to make real-time comparisons of different nations' care of their citizens and residents, their health and social systems, their social cohesion and community solidity, and so on. It has been a fascinating study. I think we are doing a bit better than most here in Oz, and I'm proud of that.

The one flaw in all of it is the Feds are Liberal. Some states are Liberal and some a Labor. The politics of it are the Liberals are trying to bash the Labor states.

 

[yorkie]

@Pakenhamtrain I think the quote tags have gone wrong there.

 

[Pakenhamtrain]

@Pakenhamtrain I think the quote tags have gone wrong there.

I think I've tinkered with it right now.

 

[Freightmaster]

We've reached a point of yea it's spreading not much we can do. Just try to limit the damage somewhat.

I wonder how many more months it will be before New Zealand grudgingly admit that is the only
possible 'exit strategy' from Covid and sheepishly follow Australia's lead??

Everyone can travel everywhere except to the Independent Republic of Western Australia. WA stated the eastern states were in "Effectively in lockdown" Sure people were restricting thier movement for a bit but lockdown it wasn't.
The reality is the WA health system struggles without covid as is.

WA sounds very similar to Eire (Ireland), who have also had draconian restrictions over the past 18 months
due to the perilous state of their health service.





MARK