What level does HEx need to fall to before political pressure calls for its demise?

[Djgr]

Moderator note: Split from

New DfT rail usage figures, big increase

There have been threads in the past (now locked) Today DfT released some numbers and it included this (national rail excluding Elizabeth line) latest period 3rd Feb to 2nd March Passenger journeys in the week ending Sunday 2 March 2025 were 91% of those observed in the equivalent week in...

www.railforums.co.uk

HEx is almost certainly switching to the Lizzie, which if you're going anywhere other than the immediate area around Paddington is going to be both quicker and cheaper. This is likely to be gradual as people discover the benefits of switching compared to what they did by habit before.

What level does HEx need to fall to before political pressure calls for its demise?

What is most likely mechanism to make this happen?

 

[Trainbike46]

What level does HEx need to fall to before political pressure calls for its demise? What is most likely mechanism to make this happen?

HEx is open-access, so it would likely close due to becoming unprofitable, which will happen at some point if passenger numbers keep dropping.

 

[Haywain]

What level does HEx need to fall to before political pressure calls for its demise?

Why would there be political pressure to call for its demise?

 

[Djgr]

Why would there be political pressure to call for its demise?

Because of ineffective use of very constrained but important infrastructure in the Paddington area

 

[Trainbike46]

Although I imagine the airport would prop up a mildly (possibly even more than mildly) loss-making service for reasons of prestige and marketing.

Would they? I'd say the Elizabeth line is a straight-up better option

I'm sure there must be more radical political solutions available, if it is leading to ineffective use of a vital but constrained infrastructure of national importance.

There's definitely other options available, including not renewing their track access when the current rights run out!

Why would there be political pressure to call for its demise?

To use the paths for something more useful, like extending the Lizzie OOC terminators to Heathrow, for example for the Airport branch part of the paths. On the fast lines from Paddington, the paths could maybe be used for more GWR services to Reading and Beyond? if not, it would increase reliability if nothing else.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Friday at 12:59 ==

Hex has an unusual (for rail) cost structure so it is a licence to print money for Heathrow Airport Ltd. It will take a lot to make it cease operations and whilst it is still making serious money for its owners, it will remain.

What is different about HEx costs compared to other railway operations?

There would have to be a huge drop in patronage for this to happen and even with the reduction in patronage quoted above, it is still hugely profitable.

There would have to be a much further drop in passenger usage, that is for sure.

 

[Clarence Yard]

Quite a bit of the cost base is on the Airport RAB and effectively being paid for by the airlines that use Heathrow.

So its profitability levels are quite high for the number of passengers carried.

 

[SynthD]

To use the paths for something more useful, like extending the Lizzie OOC terminators to Heathrow, for example for the Airport branch part of the paths.

I think the uplift they want is possible alongside HEx.

On the fast lines from Paddington, the paths could maybe be used for more GWR services to Reading and Beyond?

Wouldn’t be of use, in part because of the semi fasts that move to the relief line.

What is different about HEx costs compared to other railway operations?

It doesn’t have to pay its way, it’s a cost of prestige for the airport.

I’m not sure what level of politician would do this. It would be an anti business stunt that all working politicians would avoid because of the above available facts.

 

[Djgr]

I think the uplift they want is possible alongside HEx.

Wouldn’t be of use, in part because of the semi fasts that move to the relief line.

It doesn’t have to pay its way, it’s a cost of prestige for the airport.

I’m not sure what level of politician would do this. It would be an anti business stunt that all working politicians would avoid because of the above available facts.

Long, frequent, empty trains on a congested, high profile piece of infrastructure is also not a good political look.

 

[RailWonderer]

Because of ineffective use of very constrained but important infrastructure in the Paddington area

Ex rail industry posters on here have said dozens of times in the past those four hourly paths don't exist west of Hayes and Harlington., so HEX isn't blocking anything. It's very popular with tourists and isn't hurting you. Choice is a good thing in my book. If you don't want to use it, you don't have to.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Friday at 13:57 ==

Long, frequent, empty trains on a congested, high profile piece of infrastructure is also not a good political look.

They're not empty at all. Some can be filled halfway.

 

[gordonthemoron]

Before I started getting a lift to Heathrow, I would always use HEx because getting from Euston to Paddington > HEx is a lot easier than getting from Euston to Crossrail, at Paddington HEx is closer than the Crossrail tracks, and I'm not taking a large suitcase on anything other than Euston Square-Paddington due to the availability of lifts at both ends

 

[Bletchleyite]

Before I started getting a lift to Heathrow, I would always use HEx because getting from Euston to Paddington > HEx is a lot easier than getting from Euston to Crossrail, at Paddington HEx is closer than the Crossrail tracks, and I'm not taking a large suitcase on anything other than Euston Square-Paddington due to the availability of lifts at both ends

Euston Square to/from Paddington only has lifts in one direction (eastbound I think). Your easiest option in terms of accessibility would probably be a bus from Euston to Tottenham Court Road Liz (390 I think?) then the Liz.

And you can of course take the Liz from Paddington.

 

[Djgr]

Ex rail industry posters on here have said dozens of times in the past those four hourly paths don't exist west of Hayes and Harlington., so HEX isn't blocking anything. It's very popular with tourists and isn't hurting you. Choice is a good thing in my book. If you don't want to use it, you don't have to.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Friday at 13:57 ==


They're not empty at all. Some can be filled halfway.

Not empty. But emptying as the years go by.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Friday at 14:27 ==

Before I started getting a lift to Heathrow, I would always use HEx because getting from Euston to Paddington > HEx is a lot easier than getting from Euston to Crossrail, at Paddington HEx is closer than the Crossrail tracks, and I'm not taking a large suitcase on anything other than Euston Square-Paddington due to the availability of lifts at both ends

But to be fair you are a sample of one and the data shows that a third of HEx customers have already deserted.

 

[VItraveller]

If the concern is that the trains aren’t always full, is there anything that Hex could do about this, reducing fares for example or starting some of their trains somewhere else to capture more market share that way.

 

[Djgr]

If the concern is that the trains aren’t always full, is there anything that Hex could do about this, reducing fares for example or starting some of their trains somewhere else to capture more market share that way.

Let's put in another way. If HEx didn't exist in 2025 would somebody invent it?

 

[NCT]

The Parisians are in the process of building the CDG Express despite the turn-up-and-go RER B existing for decades.

 

[signed]

The Parisians are in the process of building the CDG Express despite the turn-up-and-go RER B existing for decades.

That being one of the royally stupidest project ever, but I digress.

I don't think that's really a like-for-like with HEX, though it will dump people out of the city center as does HEX.

 

[deltic]

Heathrow has plans to significantly increase capacity including a third runway, so while demand is stagnant now it is likely to increase in the medium to long term and hence the airport is unlikely to give up on its operation.

 

[NCT]

Airport economics are different from traditional railway economics, and HEx needs to be considered in the context of HAL's overall economics. It's common for airport expresses to be pitched towards the users who 'turn left'. Yes on paper HEx from Paddington is less convenient than Crossrail that penetrates Central London, but HEx is aimed at the 'taxi to Paddington' demographic. As things stand it looks like HEx is profitable even at its individual business unit level, but even if it isn't HAL is perfectly entitled to consider it a cost item that boosts Heathrow Airport's overall profitability.

As far as the infrastructure operator is considered, it's getting a fee for each vehicle km operated on its network and it doesn't care whether than fee is generated by 1 person paying £50 or 10 people paying £5 each.

 

[Brubulus]

Airport economics are different from traditional railway economics, and HEx needs to be considered in the context of HAL's overall economics. It's common for airport expresses to be pitched towards the users who 'turn left'. Yes on paper HEx from Paddington is less convenient than Crossrail that penetrates Central London, but HEx is aimed at the 'taxi to Paddington' demographic. As things stand it looks like HEx is profitable even at its individual business unit level, but even if it isn't HAL is perfectly entitled to consider it a cost item that boosts Heathrow Airport's overall profitability.

As far as the infrastructure operator is considered, it's getting a fee for each vehicle km operated on its network and it doesn't care whether than fee is generated by 1 person paying £50 or 10 people paying £5 each.

I think HeX is going to potentially start using 4 car trains regularly, as an easy way to cut costs. Secondly Heathrow should not be able to charge airlines extra for the mere presence of the Heathrow express, it is highly profitable, and given it's limited infrastructure impact, it is unlikely to go.

 

[Haywain]

As far as the infrastructure operator is considered, it's getting a fee for each vehicle km operated on its network and it doesn't care whether than fee is generated by 1 person paying £50 or 10 people paying £5 each.

I would go as far as to say the infrastructure operator doesn't care about passenger numbers and how much they pay at all as long as it is getting paid.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Friday at 15:31 ==

I think HeX is going to potentially start using 4 car trains regularly, as an easy way to cut costs.

Why do you think there is a need to cut costs?

Secondly Heathrow should not be able to charge airlines extra for the mere presence of the Heathrow express,

Again, why - what is the problem you want to solve? Do the airlines object?

 

[Brubulus]

I would go as far as to say the infrastructure operator doesn't care about passenger numbers and how much they pay at all as long as it is getting paid.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Friday at 15:31 ==


Why do you think there is a need to cut costs?

Again, why - what is the problem you want to solve? Do the airlines object?

For obvious reasons, airlines do not want to pay extra when they otherwise could not, especially given HeX adds almost no value to the overall Heathrow proposition, and is self funding. The problem I want to solve is the perverted incentives driving the continued operation of HeX.

Any rational business will look to cut costs where possible, given the low loadings on Hex, shortening trains will have effectively no impact on revenue and reduce costs.

 

[Trainbike46]

Any rational business will look to cut costs where possible, given the low loadings on Hex, shortening trains will have effectively no impact on revenue and reduce costs.

110 million passenger-km in a year is hardly low passenger numbers. Passenger numbers are decreasing, but are still pretty high.

 

[NCT]

For obvious reasons, airlines do not want to pay extra when they otherwise could not, especially given HeX adds almost no value to the overall Heathrow proposition

In your opinion.

The problem I want to solve is the perverted incentives driving the continued operation of HeX.

What exactly is perverse here?

 

[Haywain]

airlines do not want to pay extra when they otherwise could not,

No, but they do want to get slots at Heathrow.

 

[Iskra]

If theoretically HEX was withdrawn, would GWR need to run some form of parliamentary service?

 

[deltic]

I think HeX is going to potentially start using 4 car trains regularly, as an easy way to cut costs. Secondly Heathrow should not be able to charge airlines extra for the mere presence of the Heathrow express, it is highly profitable, and given it's limited infrastructure impact, it is unlikely to go.

Isnt Heathrow recovering the capital cost of HEX from the airlines (ie the original construction cost) not the operating costs

 

[Nym]

Does one also need to potentially consider that the tunnels under Heathrow belong to HAL, not Network Rail.
So any form of forced removal of Heathrow Express might just result in a tit for tat response with the tunnels being “unavailable” to other operators

 

[swt_passenger]

If theoretically HEX was withdrawn, would GWR need to run some form of parliamentary service?

Not necessary I suspect, mainly because HEX is an open access operator not specified by DfT, it is not a requirement of the GW franchise (now a management contract).

 

[Haywain]

If theoretically HEX was withdrawn, would GWR need to run some form of parliamentary service?

No, because GWR are not the operator of the service, that would fall to HEx.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Friday at 16:49 ==

Does one also need to potentially consider that the tunnels under Heathrow belong to HAL, not Network Rail.
So any form of forced removal of Heathrow Express might just result in a tit for tat response with the tunnels being “unavailable” to other operators

HAL charge for access through the tunnels so denying that access would be very odd behaviour.

 

[SeanG]

One must remember that Berlin has the FEX from Hbf to the Airport. It is marketed as the direct airport express but is slower and less frequent than lots of other options that existed before it. Yet it is popular as it is seen as the 'easy' option.
It is, however, integrated within their standard fare system

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: Friday at 16:51 ==

Vienna has the airport express which is again popular as it is seen as the 'easy' option even though the regular services use the same tracks, take the same (or sometimes less) time, and cosy much less