What's the likely risk of too few units in the near future?

[The Ham]

Moderator note: Split from

GWR Class 769 information & discussion (Units to go off lease March 23)

Whilst there are other threads about the 769, GWR use of them tends to get lost amongst the ‘Northern’ discussion. There is also a GWR 769 thread in the ‘speculative discussion’ part of the Forum but seeing as they are happening, I thought I would start a dedicated thread here in the Traction &...

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Thinking pragmatically, the 769 fiasco could be a blessing in disguise, they never actually entered service and by sending them off lease could take a huge chunk of the savings required by the DfT, it may stave off any major service reductions in the West.

Thats me trying to be positive!

Whilst I'm missed to agree, we could find ourselves in the situation where by March 2023 (although more likely by December 2023 - by which hopefully the strikes have been resolved) that passenger numbers (by continuing their upwards tend) have recovered enough that there's then starting to be a shortage of capacity (especially with the Castle Class also being withdrawn from service in December 2023) from the removal of rolling stock.

That may leave DfT looking foolish for requiring cuts to be made now (even though passenger numbers are still growing as it's still less than 12 months since concerns about Covid -as there were lots of Christmas parties cancelled last year) rather than having a policy where cuts are planned to be made if passenger numbers didn't reach certain threshold.

For example give notice on the 769's as they are unlikely to be that useful unless passenger numbers get fairly high, however start looking at replacements for the 150 fleet now, with an option for a rapid delivery with a follow on order and an option for a slower delivery for a basic like for like order. The decision could them be made (say) mid 2024 for first delivery late 2024/early 2025.

Leave the Castle Class for 4 months before deciding on if they continue to be leased from December 2023 (i.e If there's a need for a follow on order for the class 150 replacements, the Castles could be kept for, say, 18 months to allow enough to be delivered to cover the 150's and Castles and maybe a few extra for extra capacity for wider GWR capacity and/or to allow some of the GWR fleet to provide for extra capacity elsewhere on the network where cuts were made a little too early - for example an 18 month lease to, say, Northern to give them time to receive their 150 replacements).

Ultimately the class 150 replacement should reduce costs (designed to reduce maintenance costs - like the Desiro Cities - as well as reduced fuel costs - even a new engine is likely to do that, however it's likely that it would be hybrid to allow regen breaking to be captured to provide to aid in powering the train).

 

[irish_rail]

Whilst I'm missed to agree, we could find ourselves in the situation where by March 2023 (although more likely by December 2023 - by which hopefully the strikes have been resolved) that passenger numbers (by continuing their upwards tend) have recovered enough that there's then starting to be a shortage of capacity (especially with the Castle Class also being withdrawn from service in December 2023) from the removal of rolling stock.

That may leave DfT looking foolish for requiring cuts to be made now (even though passenger numbers are still growing as it's still less than 12 months since concerns about Covid -as there were lots of Christmas parties cancelled last year) rather than having a policy where cuts are planned to be made if passenger numbers didn't reach certain threshold.

For example give notice on the 769's as they are unlikely to be that useful unless passenger numbers get fairly high, however start looking at replacements for the 150 fleet now, with an option for a rapid delivery with a follow on order and an option for a slower delivery for a basic like for like order. The decision could them be made (say) mid 2024 for first delivery late 2024/early 2025.

Leave the Castle Class for 4 months before deciding on if they continue to be leased from December 2023 (i.e If there's a need for a follow on order for the class 150 replacements, the Castles could be kept for, say, 18 months to allow enough to be delivered to cover the 150's and Castles and maybe a few extra for extra capacity for wider GWR capacity and/or to allow some of the GWR fleet to provide for extra capacity elsewhere on the network where cuts were made a little too early - for example an 18 month lease to, say, Northern to give them time to receive their 150 replacements).

Ultimately the class 150 replacement should reduce costs (designed to reduce maintenance costs - like the Desiro Cities - as well as reduced fuel costs - even a new engine is likely to do that, however it's likely that it would be hybrid to allow regen breaking to be captured to provide to aid in powering the train).

Indeed I think losing the Castle class will be more of a struggle than some realise. The "new" IET diagrams replacing castles have already reverted back to castles , presumably as not enough IETs to cope. Once these perfectly good trains go off lease the option changes to either short form intercity trains or cancel regional trains. Short sighted by the Dft in my humble opinion.

 

[Wyrleybart]

Indeed I think losing the Castle class will be more of a struggle than some realise. The "new" IET diagrams replacing castles have already reverted back to castles , presumably as not enough IETs to cope. Once these perfectly good trains go off lease the option changes to either short form intercity trains or cancel regional trains. Short sighted by the Dft in my humble opinion.

I think that point really needs defining. IMHO Porterbrook messed up the 769 Flex introduction by trying to do the conversion "on the cheap". From what I have read of the Northern 769s, when there is a problem the units have to be fully shut down and "rebooted" unlike conventional diesel traction. I suspect it took a while for drivers to gain practical experience of stuff like this. The point though is that Northern are generally using about half of their fleet in traffic most days, and those 4 car units are able to cover a pair of 150 / 156 diagrams.

Now that the staff have got used to the TfW fleet at least half of those are in traffic every day - again replacing pairs of 150s or formerly 14x.

The difference between those two fleets is that the Welsh ones were only ever a stopgap and their replacements are on the production line as we speak, whereas the Northern fleet do not have a replacement planned AFAIK. Personally, I don't see a reason why the 769/9s could not be used as "straight" class 269 DEMUs if they can deliver what the TfW units can BUT a modern railway expects far greater availability that half the fleet in traffic everyday. So DfT are probably unwillingto have ten class 769s(40 vehicles) lingering on SPM while the other nine 769s are actually out at work as DEMUs.

There is only really one course of action for them

 

[Snow1964]

Indeed I think losing the Castle class will be more of a struggle than some realise. The "new" IET diagrams replacing castles have already reverted back to castles , presumably as not enough IETs to cope. Once these perfectly good trains go off lease the option changes to either short form intercity trains or cancel regional trains. Short sighted by the Dft in my humble opinion.

I think the loss of 769s and Castles is the concern of many. It leaves no spare capacity if strikes eventually end, and passenger numbers grow back.

Some of us are old enough to remember the cuts around 1984, then the panic to get more trains as passengers came back. Originally only 46 class 319, and 46 class 321 were ordered, follow on orders added 40 319s and 71 321s (444 extra vehicles to existing designs, although seating configuration did vary), ordered to cope with extra passengers, because older stock was no longer around (due to asbestos).

 

[Benjwri]

The "new" IET diagrams replacing castles have already reverted back to castles , presumably as not enough IETs to cope.

They’ve been reverted this week because the Bristol Parkway engineering work means Stoke Gifford is operating on an extremely limited capacity (About 10% of normal capacity), and stabling space elsewhere in the west is being prioritised for the IETs that run to London and can’t be replaced with other stock. They will return to IETs next week when the engineering is over.

 

[RPI]

They’ve been reverted this week because the Bristol Parkway engineering work means Stoke Gifford is operating on an extremely limited capacity (About 10% of normal capacity), and stabling space elsewhere in the west is being prioritised for the IETs that run to London and can’t be replaced with other stock. They will return to IETs next week when the engineering is over.

There is also the issue of quite a few conductors that are in the process of being traction trained on them, a situation that will only improve over time.

 

[irish_rail]

They’ve been reverted this week because the Bristol Parkway engineering work means Stoke Gifford is operating on an extremely limited capacity (About 10% of normal capacity), and stabling space elsewhere in the west is being prioritised for the IETs that run to London and can’t be replaced with other stock. They will return to IETs next week when the engineering is over.

Ah right thanks.

 

[Snow1964]

They’ve been reverted this week because the Bristol Parkway engineering work means Stoke Gifford is operating on an extremely limited capacity (About 10% of normal capacity), and stabling space elsewhere in the west is being prioritised for the IETs that run to London and can’t be replaced with other stock. They will return to IETs next week when the engineering is over.

So what happens next time some engineering works happen near Stoke Gifford, and Castles have been withdrawn.

Are you saying going forward, there won’t be sufficient stock when engineering works like this are taking place.

 

[43096]

So what happens next time some engineering works happen near Stoke Gifford, and Castles have been withdrawn.

Are you saying going forward, there won’t be sufficient stock when engineering works like this are taking place.

Laira is taking on more Class 802 maintenance once the Castles go, so there will be less reliance on Stoke Gifford (and indeed North Pole).

 

[Benjwri]

Are you saying going forward, there won’t be sufficient stock when engineering works like this are taking place.

I think the limited number of Castle diagrams changing to IETs is the least of the issues when it comes to this, it has been admitted by GWR that they will face significant issues when North Pole is inaccesible during Old Oak Common works, however I don't think it's realistic to keep an entire fleet running just for the case an entire depot is closed, and I think any operator would face significant difficulties if one of their major depots had to close.

 

[irish_rail]

I think the limited number of Castle diagrams changing to IETs is the least of the issues when it comes to this, it has been admitted by GWR that they will face significant issues when North Pole is inaccesible during Old Oak Common works, however I don't think it's realistic to keep an entire fleet running just for the case an entire depot is closed, and I think any operator would face significant difficulties if one of their major depots had to close.

And to think one of the arguments in favour of HS2 is so there isn't years of disruption rebuilding the WCML. Oh the irony.. poor old Western has to suffer so the West Coast doesn't.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

The "new" IET diagrams replacing castles have already reverted back to castles , presumably as not enough IETs to cope.

Incorrect, this is due to engineering works at Bristol Parkway restricting access to/from Stoke Gifford.

So what happens next time some engineering works happen near Stoke Gifford, and Castles have been withdrawn.

Are you saying going forward, there won’t be sufficient stock when engineering works like this are taking place.

Have you missed the posts on the HST withdrawal threads that once Laira has extra capacity owing the the HST withdrawal they will be taking on additional 802 maintenance?

 

[MattRat]

I think that point really needs defining. IMHO Porterbrook messed up the 769 Flex introduction by trying to do the conversion "on the cheap". From what I have read of the Northern 769s, when there is a problem the units have to be fully shut down and "rebooted" unlike conventional diesel traction. I suspect it took a while for drivers to gain practical experience of stuff like this. The point though is that Northern are generally using about half of their fleet in traffic most days, and those 4 car units are able to cover a pair of 150 / 156 diagrams.

Now that the staff have got used to the TfW fleet at least half of those are in traffic every day - again replacing pairs of 150s or formerly 14x.

The difference between those two fleets is that the Welsh ones were only ever a stopgap and their replacements are on the production line as we speak, whereas the Northern fleet do not have a replacement planned AFAIK. Personally, I don't see a reason why the 769/9s could not be used as "straight" class 269 DEMUs if they can deliver what the TfW units can BUT a modern railway expects far greater availability that half the fleet in traffic everyday. So DfT are probably unwillingto have ten class 769s(40 vehicles) lingering on SPM while the other nine 769s are actually out at work as DEMUs.

There is only really one course of action for them

By the sounds of it, I wouldn't be surprised if all 769s end up with Northern, which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, as this would start to get rid of Northern 150s, and the routes those 150s are on are perfectly suitable for the 769s.

 

[stuu]

And to think one of the arguments in favour of HS2 is so there isn't years of disruption rebuilding the WCML. Oh the irony.. poor old Western has to suffer so the West Coast doesn't.

No, the scale would be totally different. At worst a matter of months, compared to a decade or more of disruption on the WCML

 

[Benjwri]

No, the scale would be totally different. At worst a matter of months, compared to a decade or more of disruption on the WCML

This isn’t true. The works for Old Oak Common will take place over 5 years. We don’t know how intensive the works will be, but there will be periods of up to a week at a time of full blocks into Paddington, and many periods of 2 line working. All of these will have significant impact on at least the IET network across the West as there is not provision to stable enough outside North Pole.

 

[yorksrob]

The premise of the original post is very true. The DfT/Treasury/Government is frogmarching the industry to disaster in this respect. Same for the 455's.

We can all see what will happen when the Cross Country HST's and East Coast Mk 4's are forcibly removed as well.

 

[irish_rail]

This isn’t true. The works for Old Oak Common will take place over 5 years. We don’t know how intensive the works will be, but there will be periods of up to a week at a time of full blocks into Paddington, and many periods of 2 line working. All of these will have significant impact on at least the IET network across the West as there is not provision to stable enough outside North Pole.

Indeed. This will make the Reading remodelling of the previous decade look like a walk in the park. The Western really has been thrown under a bus in my view.

 

[stuu]

This isn’t true. The works for Old Oak Common will take place over 5 years. We don’t know how intensive the works will be, but there will be periods of up to a week at a time of full blocks into Paddington, and many periods of 2 line working. All of these will have significant impact on at least the IET network across the West as there is not provision to stable enough outside North Pole.

I meant at a time. Of course the works will go on for a long time but there will be very limited periods of properly significant disruption, where North Pole cannot be accessed at all. Given the scale of the new station on the GWML it should be a lot easier to stage the works to minimise disruption

 

[irish_rail]

I meant at a time. Of course the works will go on for a long time but there will be very limited periods of properly significant disruption, where North Pole cannot be accessed at all. Given the scale of the new station on the GWML it should be a lot easier to stage the works to minimise disruption

But the WCML will benefit greatly (in theory) from HS2 whereas the Westerns benefits are far more modest (and none existant on some routes). So why should the Western suffer most. Week long closures every couple of months will have an effect on patronage and damage perception of the West to London being quick and efficient when passengers have to change at Reading to a bus or a different train or whatever for a crawl into Paddington, pushing up journey times. Its robbing Peter to pay Paul.

 

[Benjwri]

Given the scale of the new station on the GWML it should be a lot easier to stage the works to minimise disruption

The DfT themselves talks about having to source trains to send to an alternative London terminus, I would not call the minimising disruption.

And yes total blockades will be minimised, but from what’s been said there’s going to be a fair bit of dual line working, which I can only assume means the Elizabeth Line will be canned to make way for IETs, which will have a significant effect on commuters.

Considering the state of the WCML anyways I don’t think anyone would notice at this point if it had these blockades, the trains barely run as it is.

the Westerns benefits are far more modest (and none existant on some routes).

Negative for anyone wanting to connect onto anything but the Elizabeth Line, since the extra stop at OOC will increase journey times.

Regardless of how long the blockades are though I think you’re going to have a hard time getting someone in Bristol to understand why their train service is cancelled because they’re building a station in London.

And on the topic of the thread you’ll be telling them this at a point they’ve found out their MetroWest frequency uplifts aren't going ahead, because the government won’t spend money on the trains, while they’ve just built a multi billion pound railway from London to the North, and a multi billion pound railway under London.

The attitude in the West around Bristol is already that we don’t have enough train services, and those that we do have are always short formed and using 20 year old trains that are hand me downs from London.

The government needs to realise it can’t keep increasing funding, as it has for TfL, while demanding cuts from the rest of the country, unless it wants people to stop using the railways.

 

[david1212]

I too see a significant risk.

For GWR if demand increases the 80x units that will replace the Castle sets may be needed on their original diagrams or to add to a service running with a 5-car set.
Now there are 165/6 units out of service awaiting parts, Chiltern have the same problem. Can these all be put back into service and the required daily depot outputs be achieved again ?

The 150 - 6 units are all older still while the 158/9 are only slightly newer.

 

[bramling]

By the sounds of it, I wouldn't be surprised if all 769s end up with Northern, which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, as this would start to get rid of Northern 150s, and the routes those 150s are on are perfectly suitable for the 769s.

What is the benefit of a 769 over a pair of 150s, save the ability to run on AC? I can’t see the 769s ever being particularly reliable, whereas on the contrary 150s are pretty bullet proof. The passenger ambience isn’t massively different, though granted the airline seating layout in some 150s isn’t particularly great.

 

[MattRat]

What is the benefit of a 769 over a pair of 150s, save the ability to run on AC? I can’t see the 769s ever being particularly reliable, whereas on the contrary 150s are pretty bullet proof. The passenger ambience isn’t massively different, though granted the airline seating layout in some 150s isn’t particularly great.

Emissions for one thing. Not just less emissions, but less or no dangerous particulates in people's lungs.

Also the body shells are younger, and that ultimately determines the life cycle of a unit, with some exceptions.

 

[Chester1]

Indeed I think losing the Castle class will be more of a struggle than some realise. The "new" IET diagrams replacing castles have already reverted back to castles , presumably as not enough IETs to cope. Once these perfectly good trains go off lease the option changes to either short form intercity trains or cancel regional trains. Short sighted by the Dft in my humble opinion.

They are expensive to run!

There could be a short term lack of capacity but most the TfW fleet will be going off lease during 2023 and 2024. Next year there will likely cut backs of microfleets at multiple ToCs too. Roscos won't send most units straight to the scrapyard. They might scrap the Castles quickly but off lease DMUs will likely be held in warm storage. There should be units available to boost GWR regional services if there is sufficient demand and all of them are cheaper to operate than Castles.

 

[Wyrleybart]

But the WCML will benefit greatly (in theory) from HS2 whereas the Westerns benefits are far more modest (and none existant on some routes). So why should the Western suffer most. Week long closures every couple of months will have an effect on patronage and damage perception of the West to London being quick and efficient when passengers have to change at Reading to a bus or a different train or whatever for a crawl into Paddington, pushing up journey times. Its robbing Peter to pay Paul.

With respect, Network Rail cannot simply pick up Old Oak common and move it somewhere less intrusive. It is there and plans have to be faced.

Oxford's rebuilding and OHLing will have significant disruption for a year or two. Just has to be sucked up I am afraid.

 

[Benjwri]

and OHLing

Unfortunately that but is far from a given. Last we’ve heard the extension of OHLE to Oxford is just something they’ll consider when the new station is complete.