Moderator note: Split from
Whilst I'm missed to agree, we could find ourselves in the situation where by March 2023 (although more likely by December 2023 - by which hopefully the strikes have been resolved) that passenger numbers (by continuing their upwards tend) have recovered enough that there's then starting to be a shortage of capacity (especially with the Castle Class also being withdrawn from service in December 2023) from the removal of rolling stock.
That may leave DfT looking foolish for requiring cuts to be made now (even though passenger numbers are still growing as it's still less than 12 months since concerns about Covid -as there were lots of Christmas parties cancelled last year) rather than having a policy where cuts are planned to be made if passenger numbers didn't reach certain threshold.
For example give notice on the 769's as they are unlikely to be that useful unless passenger numbers get fairly high, however start looking at replacements for the 150 fleet now, with an option for a rapid delivery with a follow on order and an option for a slower delivery for a basic like for like order. The decision could them be made (say) mid 2024 for first delivery late 2024/early 2025.
Leave the Castle Class for 4 months before deciding on if they continue to be leased from December 2023 (i.e If there's a need for a follow on order for the class 150 replacements, the Castles could be kept for, say, 18 months to allow enough to be delivered to cover the 150's and Castles and maybe a few extra for extra capacity for wider GWR capacity and/or to allow some of the GWR fleet to provide for extra capacity elsewhere on the network where cuts were made a little too early - for example an 18 month lease to, say, Northern to give them time to receive their 150 replacements).
Ultimately the class 150 replacement should reduce costs (designed to reduce maintenance costs - like the Desiro Cities - as well as reduced fuel costs - even a new engine is likely to do that, however it's likely that it would be hybrid to allow regen breaking to be captured to provide to aid in powering the train).
GWR Class 769 information & discussion (Units to go off lease March 23)
Whilst there are other threads about the 769, GWR use of them tends to get lost amongst the ‘Northern’ discussion. There is also a GWR 769 thread in the ‘speculative discussion’ part of the Forum but seeing as they are happening, I thought I would start a dedicated thread here in the Traction &...
www.railforums.co.uk
Thinking pragmatically, the 769 fiasco could be a blessing in disguise, they never actually entered service and by sending them off lease could take a huge chunk of the savings required by the DfT, it may stave off any major service reductions in the West.
Thats me trying to be positive!
Whilst I'm missed to agree, we could find ourselves in the situation where by March 2023 (although more likely by December 2023 - by which hopefully the strikes have been resolved) that passenger numbers (by continuing their upwards tend) have recovered enough that there's then starting to be a shortage of capacity (especially with the Castle Class also being withdrawn from service in December 2023) from the removal of rolling stock.
That may leave DfT looking foolish for requiring cuts to be made now (even though passenger numbers are still growing as it's still less than 12 months since concerns about Covid -as there were lots of Christmas parties cancelled last year) rather than having a policy where cuts are planned to be made if passenger numbers didn't reach certain threshold.
For example give notice on the 769's as they are unlikely to be that useful unless passenger numbers get fairly high, however start looking at replacements for the 150 fleet now, with an option for a rapid delivery with a follow on order and an option for a slower delivery for a basic like for like order. The decision could them be made (say) mid 2024 for first delivery late 2024/early 2025.
Leave the Castle Class for 4 months before deciding on if they continue to be leased from December 2023 (i.e If there's a need for a follow on order for the class 150 replacements, the Castles could be kept for, say, 18 months to allow enough to be delivered to cover the 150's and Castles and maybe a few extra for extra capacity for wider GWR capacity and/or to allow some of the GWR fleet to provide for extra capacity elsewhere on the network where cuts were made a little too early - for example an 18 month lease to, say, Northern to give them time to receive their 150 replacements).
Ultimately the class 150 replacement should reduce costs (designed to reduce maintenance costs - like the Desiro Cities - as well as reduced fuel costs - even a new engine is likely to do that, however it's likely that it would be hybrid to allow regen breaking to be captured to provide to aid in powering the train).
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