When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[Dai Corner]

It's worth remembering that the only Labour leaders apart from Tony Blair to have gained a decent majority are Clement Attlee in 1945 and Harold Wilson in 1966.

Attlee's majority was reduced to 5 in 1950 and he lost to the Conservatives in 1951. Wilson lost to Heath in 1970 but struggled on with a minority or tiny majority from 1974 to 1979 when Thatcher won a majority of 43.

List of United Kingdom general elections - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I think we can see that we've been a naturally Conservative country for the last century. Only by adopting similar policies can any opposition Party hope to get into power.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

At the moment, I think that the first option is most likely - I think he'll walk out on his own terms.

I also think that Johnson will walk on his own terms - but I don't think it'll be until after the next election (assuming the Tories remain in the lead in the polls until then): If he goes before the next election, he'll be remembered in 10 years' time as a flash-in-the-pan who was briefly PM during some fairly turbulent times. On the other hand, I'm sure he knows he's a good campaigner, and with the current state of the parties, the Tories are looking very likely to win in 2 years or so with another thumping majority. If that happens and he's still leader, he becomes the first Tory leader since Margaret Thatcher to outright win 2 general elections in a row. If you had Johnson's ego, which way would you want to be remembered?

 

[Typhoon]

Can we keep the endless and incredibly tedious circular covid arguments in the covid forum, where they can be best avoided?

As for the original question, maybe when the truce between the various warring factions in the Tory party ends. They are fairly united at the moment though any PM is never far from being stabbed in the front by his colleagues.

Johnson has the same problem as Blair did in the early years. He has too big a majority. Tories can rebel without bringing down the government, and they know it. Some will claim that Johnson is not following traditional 'conservative policies'. @oldman has described some above but there are more (like housing); Covid - I would add the enquiry, there has to be one and any whitewash will be seen as that by the many voters who have lost loved ones in difficult circumstances, it can't all be heaped on Hancock (which is one reason why it would be a mistake to give Baroness Harding the NHS job - another potential scapegoat). On these and other issues MPs can rebel without consequences, when they do, the government starts to look weak. There are quite a few on the back benches who have little to lose; they are of an older generation, don't like the way Johnson turned on May, have been discarded by him, or are sufficiently off message (whatever the message is). Some previous leaders would confront them, I'm not sure that Johnson is the type.

He has a difficult tightrope to walk.

I also think that Johnson will walk on his own terms - but I don't think it'll be until after the next election (assuming the Tories remain in the lead in the polls until then): If he goes before the next election, he'll be remembered in 10 years' time as a flash-in-the-pan who was briefly PM during some fairly turbulent times. On the other hand, I'm sure he knows he's a good campaigner, and with the current state of the parties, the Tories are looking very likely to win in 2 years or so with another thumping majority. If that happens and he's still leader, he becomes the first Tory leader since Margaret Thatcher to outright win 2 general elections in a row. If you had Johnson's ego, which way would you want to be remembered?

You may well be right but in a way Covid has been a useful apology for things not going right. The longer you risk being derailed by 'events', and there will be no sentiment on his own benches if he is.

 

[tbtc]

I also think that Johnson will walk on his own terms - but I don't think it'll be until after the next election (assuming the Tories remain in the lead in the polls until then): If he goes before the next election, he'll be remembered in 10 years' time as a flash-in-the-pan who was briefly PM during some fairly turbulent times. On the other hand, I'm sure he knows he's a good campaigner, and with the current state of the parties, the Tories are looking very likely to win in 2 years or so with another thumping majority. If that happens and he's still leader, he becomes the first Tory leader since Margaret Thatcher to outright win 2 general elections in a row. If you had Johnson's ego, which way would you want to be remembered?

Good points there

I wonder if he's planning a post-Covid election - say May 2022, only half way through a notional five year "term" but soon enough to get some kind of "bounce" from having got over Covid ("Get Covid Done" - even if the stats won't quite fit his narrative) and before the worst of the post-Brexit problems become apparent (the post-Brexit problems have been disguised by the disruption caused by Covid and by the Suez Canal difficulties - retailers are happy to blame a generic "disruption to global shipping" than give people unpleasant truths about the problems they're encountering after leaving the single market/customs union)...

...that way he gets to walk away with his head held high in late 2022/early 2023, before his successor gets bogged down in things like surrendering some of our "sovereignty" to keep trade moving, or the constitutional problems caused by a further Scottish referendum - leave the difficult stuff for your successor!

That would also mean that the 2022 "local" elections wouldn't be a mid-term protest vote (where lifelong Tories felt safe backing whatever Farage is calling his next party) but an "us versus them" proper General Election (it might be tough to recover from a damning mid-term protest vote, where traditional Tory voters stayed at home or decided that they were okay to vote for a nUKIP) - just a hunch - he won't want the humiliation of being voted out at an election and he won't want to get bogged down in messy negotiations or details - but he can't be seen to leave without Getting Covid Done so can't leave just yet

The unknown is what'd happen if the Tories were ever behind in the polls (for more than a blip)? They've been leading opinion polls most weeks since the global financial crash which was almost fifteen years ago, so we don't know how the party will react if they are seen to be behind. Especially a lot of current Tory MPs are from the 2017/2019 elections (as the "old guard" of MPs like Ken Clarke were shuffled out and Tories won unexpected seats in places like South Yorkshire), so they've only known the good times, they've only known power, they've only been ahead in the polls. There was a great William Hague quote I heard on Matt Forde's Political Party podcast, where he said the "the Tory Party are right behind their leaders, right up until the point when they aren't" << i.e. the change when it comes will be pretty swift - especially as the large number of new MPs never spent time in opposition and might get jittery at the prospect of a defeat.

In normal times, you'd expect an England victory at the Euros (or World Cup) to guarantee the PM a boost - but we've already seen the Home Secretary to defend people's right to boo the national team and backbenchers say that they are boycotting matches because Something Something Woke Something, so they might not be able to claim the reflected glory... (they probably will try to claim it, let's face it!)

 

[big_rig]

As soon as labour brings out some policies - as what happened in 2017. The Tories bang the drum on “levelling-up”, but I think they’re quite unsure (and possibly slightly unwilling) to understand what that truly means.

I think this is probably the right answer. They have done the ‘easy bit’ in terms of announcing all sorts of levelling up and net zero targets but actually meeting them will test the realignment of the party (I.e figuring out how to do much of that without basically implementing the Labour 2017 manifesto). I imagine the Tories will win in 2023 or whenever the next election is as they can cruise by another few years, but will start running out of steam by 2028 where some kind of Lib/Lab coalition propped up in some form by the SNP gets across the line. The Scotland question being a bit of a wildcard though as that did for Labour in 2015 - unless the SNP implodes I’m not sure how they make the numbers work to get across the line.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I think this is probably the right answer. They have done the ‘easy bit’ in terms of announcing all sorts of levelling up and net zero targets but actually meeting them will test the realignment of the party (I.e figuring out how to do much of that without basically implementing the Labour 2017 manifesto). I imagine the Tories will win in 2023 or whenever the next election is as they can cruise by another few years, but will start running out of steam by 2028 where some kind of Lib/Lab coalition propped up in some form by the SNP gets across the line. The Scotland question being a bit of a wildcard though as that did for Labour in 2015 - unless the SNP implodes I’m not sure how they make the numbers work to get across the line.

I really don't think Labour's problem in Scotland is that bad. The SNP cannot produce overall UK economic policy unlike Labour. Plus the Tories are showing no willingness to undertake grand reforms on the constitution. Labour just has to appeal to soft Yes voters (of which there are many) and tell die-hard unionists the Union is as safe with Labour as it is with the Tories (if not more).

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Good points there

I wonder if he's planning a post-Covid election - say May 2022, only half way through a notional five year "term" but soon enough to get some kind of "bounce" from having got over Covid ("Get Covid Done" - even if the stats won't quite fit his narrative) and before the worst of the post-Brexit problems become apparent (the post-Brexit problems have been disguised by the disruption caused by Covid and by the Suez Canal difficulties - retailers are happy to blame a generic "disruption to global shipping" than give people unpleasant truths about the problems they're encountering after leaving the single market/customs union)...

The thought has crossed my mind too. It would be virtually unprecedented to call an election so early when the Government has such a large majority, but I can see the attraction of it: Almost guaranteed win if nothing trips the Government up in the meantime. Could probably be spun as something like 'We've been through a huge national crisis. Here's your chance to vote for our plans to recover from it' which would to some extent neuter any annoyance people feel at the early election. And it would totally catch the other parties out, since they all seem to be expecting an election in 2023.

Set against that, I don't think waiting until 2023 is a huge risk: Keir Starmer is rather obviously failing to resonate with the public. The LibDems are slowly reviving, but there aren't that many seats at risk to them. The main risk to the Tories is that 2o23 gives an extra year for either some unexpected event to overtake the Government, or for the Government to suddenly screw up on something big enough to change opinions. There's also a matter of the constituency boundary changes - I'm not sure exactly when they'll come into effect, but there's an obvious incentive for the Tories to want to fight the next election on the new boundaries.

...that way he gets to walk away with his head held high in late 2022/early 2023, before his successor gets bogged down in things like surrendering some of our "sovereignty" to keep trade moving, or the constitutional problems caused by a further Scottish referendum - leave the difficult stuff for your successor!

I have to admit I'm not convinced that the fallout from Brexit or any Scottish referendum will do the Tories much harm. The EU's disastrous vaccine rollout compared to our one has probably convinced quite a few soft-remainers that Brexit wasn't so bad after all; it's going to be very hard to distinguish Brexit from Covid as a cause of any economic problems in the next few years; and any attempt by opposition parties to make Brexit an election issue will be seen by a lot of people as living in the past and trying to fight what are now irrelevant historical battles. As for Scotland - the Tories have very few seats to lose in Scotland, and I don't see any reason to think Scottish issues will harm their popularity in England or Wales. Indeed, any divisiveness over Scottish independence would probably help them in Scotland because they are seen as the most strongly pro-UK party and divisiveness tends to drive people away from the middle ground.

 

[Busaholic]

Huge inflation, even by official figures which are always skewed to underestimate it. To get sufficient UK lorry drivers (there are 70,000 with HGV licences who are choosing not to work as such) then wage rates and conditions are going to have to increase dramatically, and indeed are in that some major firms are paying agencies to supply them at double the previous rate. The first supermarket group to increase rates dramatically for drivers employed directly by themselves will start a domino effect. I predict even official inflation rates of 10% to 15% within the next year, regardless of fuel or mortgage inflation, with food prices going through the roof and far less choice on the shelves. Package sizes shrink all the time to try to disguise this.

 

[brad465]

Huge inflation, even by official figures which are always skewed to underestimate it. To get sufficient UK lorry drivers (there are 70,000 with HGV licences who are choosing not to work as such) then wage rates and conditions are going to have to increase dramatically, and indeed are in that some major firms are paying agencies to supply them at double the previous rate. The first supermarket group to increase rates dramatically for drivers employed directly by themselves will start a domino effect. I predict even official inflation rates of 10% to 15% within the next year, regardless of fuel or mortgage inflation, with food prices going through the roof and far less choice on the shelves. Package sizes shrink all the time to try to disguise this.

Yes if we get this sort of inflation, even non-officially (many, including myself, believe the figures are skewed downwards), and the Government will be in trouble if it doesn't act properly. The expectation is the Bank of England will do whatever it can to avoid putting rates up, as this will bring the house down in the world of servicing debts and asset bubbles. Allowing inflation to run for a while helps devalue the debt and make it more manageable, but at the expense of much of the population whose suffering won't last long before boiling over.

 

[Dai Corner]

Yes if we get this sort of inflation, even non-officially (many, including myself, believe the figures are skewed downwards), and the Government will be in trouble if it doesn't act properly. The expectation is the Bank of England will do whatever it can to avoid putting rates up, as this will bring the house down in the world of servicing debts and asset bubbles. Allowing inflation to run for a while helps devalue the debt and make it more manageable, but at the expense of much of the population whose suffering won't last long before boiling over.

Much of the population has debts and will benefit from them being inflated away too. Those who have savings could be appeased by offering inflation-linked National Savings products. Inflation was high through most of the 1980s and early 1990s and the Tories still won four General Elections.

 

[Busaholic]

Much of the population has debts and will benefit from them being inflated away too. Those who have savings could be appeased by offering inflation-linked National Savings products. Inflation was high through most of the 1980s and early 1990s and the Tories still won four General Elections.

I have hours and hours of VHS tapes from the early 1990s of TV programmes, including Channel Four ones, and the commercial breaks are full of ads for building societies offering rates of between 11 and 14% even for instant access! (George Cole and Halifax Gold anyone?) I think anybody who expects more than 3 or 4 per cent interest in future regardless of inflation rate is delusional.The demise of the mutual Building Society has stopped any competition for saver deposits. The government will simply print more money: advisers may be sent to Zimbabwe or Venezuela to discover how those countries coped with rampant inflation.

 

[tbtc]

I really don't think Labour's problem in Scotland is that bad. The SNP cannot produce overall UK economic policy unlike Labour. Plus the Tories are showing no willingness to undertake grand reforms on the constitution. Labour just has to appeal to soft Yes voters (of which there are many) and tell die-hard unionists the Union is as safe with Labour as it is with the Tories (if not more).

I think you're right - the SNP have been keeping their voters focussed on the referendum "just around the corner" for some time now - eventually that support is going to dissipate - either to parties who are more focussed on Independence at all costs (Alba, maybe?) or back to parties who are more focussed on quantifiable everyday concerns (rather than constantly edging their way to a referendum that never quite gets there, much as some religious leaders use the promise of Rapture as a way of distracting people from today's problems - people keep getting told to "wheesht till Indy" but there's only so long that you can keep that up before people start asking questions about why their bins aren't being emptied or the pot holes keep increasing

Much of the population has debts and will benefit from them being inflated away too. Those who have savings could be appeased by offering inflation-linked National Savings products. Inflation was high through most of the 1980s and early 1990s and the Tories still won four General Elections.

The danger that the Government have is that the people most at risk will be pensioners without the money to invest in the kind of products that you mention - will the triple lock guarantee keep going? Because it'll make them very unpopular amongst a core bit of Tory voting Britain if they water it down/scrap it, yet it'll be very expensive to maintain indefinitely if inflation does rise back to 1980s levels. If the Government are struggling to balance budgets (post Covid/Brexit), it might go down badly to raise taxes on working age people whilst the Triple Lock continues... awkward balance to maintain - expect some kind of inter-generational arguments though!

The thought has crossed my mind too. It would be virtually unprecedented to call an election so early when the Government has such a large majority, but I can see the attraction of it: Almost guaranteed win if nothing trips the Government up in the meantime. Could probably be spun as something like 'We've been through a huge national crisis. Here's your chance to vote for our plans to recover from it' which would to some extent neuter any annoyance people feel at the early election. And it would totally catch the other parties out, since they all seem to be expecting an election in 2023

Yeah, I could see some kind of argument that "we need a mandate to held us Build Back Better", park their tanks on Labour's lawn, make it hard for Starmer to decide to either ask for even more extreme increases in public spending or will he fall into the trap of being too reasonable (e.g. the way that he annoyed a lot of Corbynites by arguing against a rise in corporation tax recently)

I have hours and hours of VHS tapes from the early 1990s of TV programmes, including Channel Four ones, and the commercial breaks are full of ads for building societies offering rates of between 11 and 14% even for instant access! (George Cole and Halifax Gold anyone?) I think anybody who expects more than 3 or 4 per cent interest in future regardless of inflation rate is delusional. The government will simply print more money: advisers may be sent to Zimbabwe or Venezuela to discover how those countries coped with rampant inflation.

Ah, those George Cole "Liquid Gold" adverts were great

 

[brad465]

Much of the population has debts and will benefit from them being inflated away too. Those who have savings could be appeased by offering inflation-linked National Savings products. Inflation was high through most of the 1980s and early 1990s and the Tories still won four General Elections.

But the base rate set by the Bank of England was considerably higher back then (like 8-12%) throughout the decade, unlike the pitiful 0.1% now, and below 1% since 2008. When rates are so low for so long, capitalism gets corrupted and sensible money management is turned on its head. If inflation returned to 1980s levels and the BoE decided to raise rates to even half of what they were in the 80s, anyone with some form of debt, including public debt, will be in a very bad place.

In short, anyone involved in monetary policy has just been kicking the can down the road for the inevitable disaster. Whichever Government is overseeing that disaster will not be in a happy place with the public.

 

[Dai Corner]

I have hours and hours of VHS tapes from the early 1990s of TV programmes, including Channel Four ones, and the commercial breaks are full of ads for building societies offering rates of between 11 and 14% even for instant access! (George Cole and Halifax Gold anyone?) I think anybody who expects more than 3 or 4 per cent interest in future regardless of inflation rate is delusional.The demise of the mutual Building Society has stopped any competition for saver deposits. The government will simply print more money: advisers may be sent to Zimbabwe or Venezuela to discover how those countries coped with rampant inflation.

What were the banks and building societies doing with that money? Lending it to people like me who had mortgages or other debts. Enough of us still voted Conservative to keep them in power until 1997.

 

[GusB]

I have hours and hours of VHS tapes from the early 1990s of TV programmes, including Channel Four ones, and the commercial breaks are full of ads for building societies offering rates of between 11 and 14% even for instant access! (George Cole and Halifax Gold anyone?) I think anybody who expects more than 3 or 4 per cent interest in future regardless of inflation rate is delusional.The demise of the mutual Building Society has stopped any competition for saver deposits. The government will simply print more money: advisers may be sent to Zimbabwe or Venezuela to discover how those countries coped with rampant inflation.

Slightly off-topic, but George Cole was originally "Laughing all the way to the Leeds" (which was presumably taken over by Halifax).

 

[Dai Corner]

The danger that the Government have is that the people most at risk will be pensioners without the money to invest in the kind of products that you mention - will the triple lock guarantee keep going? Because it'll make them very unpopular amongst a core bit of Tory voting Britain if they water it down/scrap it, yet it'll be very expensive to maintain indefinitely if inflation does rise back to 1980s levels. If the Government are struggling to balance budgets (post Covid/Brexit), it might go down badly to raise taxes on working age people whilst the Triple Lock continues... awkward balance to maintain - expect some kind of inter-generational arguments though!

Those without savings won't worry about losing their value. I doubt if any Government would dare not to increase state pensions in line with price inflation. If wage inflation is higher than price inflation then at least working age voters will be happy.

Public sector pay may well be restrained - but public sector workers probably don't vote Tory anyway!

 

[yorksrob]

Slightly off-topic, but George Cole was originally "Laughing all the way to the Leeds" (which was presumably taken over by Halifax).

There is still a Leeds Building Society, so perhaps he had a change of employer ?

 

[daodao]

There is still a Leeds Building Society, so perhaps he had a change of employer ?

The current Leeds Building Society (B/S) was previously called the Leeds & Holbeck B/S, and distinct from the former Leeds Permanent B/S.

Johnson has no sense of shame for his lies and vile behaviour, and Labour seem incapable of effective opposition. I expect the Tories to win the next GE. If there is a threat of a Labour revival, they can always pull out an image of the Labour leader in Sturgeon's pocket. This was very effective in 2015 in persuading sufficient English folk not to vote Labour for fear of a UK government being beholden to an enemy of the state.

 

[yorksrob]

The current Leeds Building Society (B/S) was previously called the Leeds & Holbeck B/S, and distinct from the former Leeds Permanent B/S.

Ah, thanks for the background.

 

[Typhoon]

I suspect the person Johnson apparently refers to as 'Upstairs' will have a big say about when he steps aside. Although he is not exactly a workaholic (I gather he doesn't work at weekends), it does limit what they can do together - and his age must weigh heavily on their minds; after all Cameron has done the job, written the book and been appointed to all sorts of worthy positions, and he is over 2 years younger.

Also, news that Mrs J is 'expecting' may indicate that the announcement of an early election will follow, then wanting to see his children grow up will generally be understood to be a good reason to step down.

 

[birchesgreen]

They need to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act first, i know they are planning on doing it this parliament but they haven't done it yet.

 

[JamesT]

They need to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act first, i know they are planning on doing it this parliament but they haven't done it yet.

They appear to have started the process, though as you say it's not done yet - https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/2609

 

[XAM2175]

If there is a threat of a Labour revival, they can always pull out the Labour leader in Sturgeon's pocket image/ This was very effective in 2015 in persuading sufficient English folk not to vote Labour for fear of a UK government being beholden to an enemy of the state.

An enemy of the state? Seriously?

 

[notlob.divad]

Also, news that Mrs J is 'expecting' may indicate that the announcement of an early election will follow, then wanting to see his children grow up will generally be understood to be a good reason to step down.

Why? It isn't like he hung around to see the others grow up.

 

[ainsworth74]

Also, news that Mrs J is 'expecting' may indicate that the announcement of an early election will follow, then wanting to see his children grow up will generally be understood to be a good reason to step down.

That would be a change of character for him!

They need to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act first, i know they are planning on doing it this parliament but they haven't done it yet.

Though even prior to repeal that's shown to be about as effective as as chocolate fireguard. If it was then neither the 2017 nor 2019 elections would have happened!

 

[birchesgreen]

Though even prior to repeal that's shown to be about as effective as as chocolate fireguard. If it was then neither the 2017 nor 2019 elections would have happened!

Only if the opposition agrees, i doubt they would again so soon

 

[ainsworth74]

Only if the opposition agrees, i doubt they would again so soon

"Are you scared of another election Mr Starmer?"

"Don't you want to be Prime Minister Mr Starmer?"

"Are you saying that the Labour party are not ready to govern Mr Starmer?

Etc, etc.

An opposition party could refuse, of course, but I'm not sure it's wise.

 

[birchesgreen]

We're talking about a quick election half way through a term, any criticism is easily batted away

 

[ainsworth74]

We're talking about a quick election half way through a term, any criticism is easily batted away

What like 2017 and 2019?

 

[birchesgreen]

What like 2017 and 2019?

Different circumstances, then we had a paralysed parliament we don't have that now.