When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[PHILIPE]

The super efficient Dido Harding is stepping down from her role in the NHS but things could have possibly been different if her pal Mutt Hancock was still in situ and appointed her as CEO of the NHS instead of Amanda Pritchard.

 

[SteveM70]

I think you're correct. Boris's reported statement, "Thanks to Margaret Thatcher who closed so many coal mines across the country where we had had a big early start and we’re now moving rapidly away from coal altogether." is basically correct. Obviously Mrs. Thatcher wasn't at the time thinking about climate: She was motivated by, believing that it was wrong for the Government to continue subsidising inefficient, uneconomic, industries - and the benefits for the environment came as a fortuitous side-effect.

She was motivated by giving the trades unions a bloody nose

In the same article it also lists Liz Truss as a replacement

God help us all.

 

[brad465]

JRM being bossed around by a woman will never happen, he's believes he's from a time when men have ultimate power over women despite the fact that he can't even be trusted with electric power!

Dare I say the traditional Tory party as a whole still believes in a male patriarchy: they might have had 2 female leaders, but one only needs to look at how they left office compared to male leaders, regardless of what caused them to resign and their general competency. Thatcher and May were publicly hounded for a long time before resigning in comparison to virtually every other male leader (except maybe IDS who was absolute rubbish). How Johnson bows out will test this concept.

Don't believe all that schtick, he knows enough about modern media and its methods as he needs to advance his own career: the other total myth that he's scrupulously polite at all times is hokum too. He's a nasty piece of work and he'd have all us 'peasants' (as he undoubtedly sees us in reality) back in our 'place' at a flash should we have the ultimate misfortune of him gaining more power still. I'd almost rather see Galloway as P.M. That really would be Devil and Deep Blue Sea stuff.

If JRM was around in the 19th century he would so easily be someone who runs a workhouse.

She was motivated by giving the trades unions a bloody nose

The unions in the 70/80s were what the banks are today.

 

[Busaholic]

If JRM was around in the 19th century he would so easily be someone who runs a workhouse.

For a profit, and with much relish.

 

[birchesgreen]

To be honest if JRM was around in the 19th century he would just be a mediocre minor member of the aristocracy of little note. In an age of great minds he would be nothing.

 

[Busaholic]

To be honest if JRM was around in the 19th century he would just be a mediocre minor member of the aristocracy of little note. In an age of great minds he would be nothing.

He certainly has a pedestrian mind.

 

[option]

Much of the population has debts and will benefit from them being inflated away too. Those who have savings could be appeased by offering inflation-linked National Savings products. Inflation was high through most of the 1980s and early 1990s and the Tories still won four General Elections.

You can only inflate away historic & long term debt, not current/future debt.

The type of debt people have has changed since the 80s & 90s as well. There's a lot more people who have ongoing credit card debt but no mortgage, & are spending all their income on things they don't own; rent, travel, etc.
The debts that got somewhat inflated away were mortgages, & it happened by house prices going up over years & years.
Your not inflating away the season ticket you've bought on a credit card that takes 3 months to pay off.

Like I said, the EU didn't even have an office block in Wales to put a giant flag on.

Personally, being both English and Welsh by parentage, birth and residence and identifying as British, I'm all for the UK Government reminding us what they do in Wales whether it's collecting taxes, paying pensions and benefits or funding the police, Defence and other services.

1) Because the EU doesn't have offices everywhere, because it doesn't work that way.

2) Local Authorities collect council tax & business rates. Retailers collect VAT.
Local Authorities also collect the Police precept, which in the case of South Wales Police is nearly 40% of their funding.

I think you are right. I've noticed more and more young Conservative activists - certainly more young councillors than Labour. This is Labour taking the votes of some for granted, while the Conservatives offer them a (possible) route to a brighter future. Labour needs to start talking to young people (your average young people, not the shouty ones) and start engaging them otherwise the Conservatives won't need to worry about converting former Labour voters, there won't be many.

That doesn't mean that there actually are more, or that they are their for the longer term.
How have you noticed this? Have you tracked councillor numbers & make-up across the years, or has their been more 'pushed' at you by the media?

I don't think we are in a disagreement about the point you have made. There is a shortage of nurses so what tends to happen is that we search far and wide and filch them from countries at the other side of the earth because they are prepared to work for lower salaries ('we' being hospital trusts). Those that are employed from this country are told it is a 'vocation' (with the implication that we won't pay you much). If we were prepared to pay more more UK residents would be enticed into the profession ('we' being HMG).

If, back in March, instead of Johnson blathering, he had said something along the lines that although public sector workers on the whole would be subjected to a pay freeze all NHS workers would get 1% but to mark the dedication of certain classes of lower paid NHS workers such as nurses we will be awarding them 4% say (they might want to add other classes at 2% say). Instead we have this panic measure which Javid has got through but I suspect the consequences that I have outlined have not been thought through.

You also need the spaces on the degree courses. Nursing courses are already full. So even if they agreed funding for extra students, by the time you've got more lecturers & teaching space, & then taught the students, it's 5 years before you get your new nurses.

Politically it's something you would have to introduce in your first year in government, & hope you can last the next 4-5 years!




-----

In terms of 'when will it go wrong for Johnson?', it already has. All the party/MPs are waiting for is a suitable time to ditch him & put Covid & Brexit on him.
This winter isn't going to be a good time for either of those, so it's next year before they'll move against him.

 

[brad465]

In terms of 'when will it go wrong for Johnson?', it already has. All the party/MPs are waiting for is a suitable time to ditch him & put Covid & Brexit on him.
This winter isn't going to be a good time for either of those, so it's next year before they'll move against him.

Yes this was why Hancock went when he did, the party needed to find an excuse to get rid of him once enough of Covid passed. I remember reading "Hancock hasn't resigned because those pictures emerged, those pictures emerged because he's already gone". The party at large will find something to get rid of him over by the same logic, or he'll go of his own accord when he's had enough or needs to run away from some nasty mess.

 

[Typhoon]

That doesn't mean that there actually are more, or that they are their for the longer term.
How have you noticed this? Have you tracked councillor numbers & make-up across the years, or has their been more 'pushed' at you by the media?

My local authority publish a biannual magazine which gives details including pictures of councillors, over the years the Labour and LibDems have been pretty much the same faces, even when they gain seats, some had previously been councillors, the others were obviously not in the first flush of youth. We keep a few of these magazines around because they have key information in like contacts but also stuff like recycling. The Conservatives have been the governing party throughout the time I have lived locally; the cabinet that was there 10 years ago, which was experienced, has all been replaced by much younger members, who were not even councillors when I arrived. The '10 years' ago cabinet was what I would regard as the stereotypical Conservative council, not now. I don't know for certain but most look of working age and easily of working age. When I could I attended certain council meetings and am convinced that the (fairly) youthful appearance of certain councillors is not down to cosmetic surgery. I have seen the stalls set out in the high street and also those canvassing during election times, I don't think I have seen anyone for Labour under forty and most are older. Greens, yes; Labour, no!
Yes, some is down to the media; that is how I found out the ages of two councillors (20's) - when the local paper reported their marriage, also when it reported on the youth of a particular councillor on election. That was pushed at me but they are so desperate for material, they'd report the marriage of the local lollypop lady, and they've printed every single contribution I have sent to their letters page. If there was a Labour councillor or activist who had been given a degree by Oxford or chosen to represent England in handball, it would be on the front page, I assure you.

I have also looked at the profiles of councillors in neighbouring councils (easily accessible on line), I don't see much difference.

As stated in previous posts, in the past the population in general has appeared to move to the right as they got older. Conservatives are now attracting the young. Worrying.

 

[daodao]

Worrying.

Why? Is it not good that younger people are participating as local councillors, or do you consider them too inexperienced?

One benefit of a Tory-run council is that they are likely to be more frugal with other people's money.

 

[Typhoon]

Why? Is it not good that younger people are participating as local councillors, or do you consider them too inexperienced?

One benefit of a Tory-run council is that they are likely to be more frugal with other people's money.

Worrying that Labour does not appear to be attracting the younger potential candidates, while the Conservatives do. Nothing wrong with the latter, but the former is, in my eyes, undesireable. (Sorry, I didn't phrase that at all well.)

Whatever the council, there needs to be representatives across the age spectrum and, locally, the Labour representatives seem to be drawn from the retired. or nearly retired, cohort. It should be that someone elected to the council in their twenties and thirties is as commonplace as someone in their seventies but it isn't. At least locally, the Conservatives appear to have understood that. There is a chance that younger councillors would want to be considered as candidates for parliament. I would rather that a local candidate stood than someone parachuted in, in particular, a party apparatchik, who has never had a real job. For a start they will have an affinity and understanding of the constituency. If they gain a cabinet position or served on a sub committee they may have learnt how local government really works, where the problems lie. They may also live locally so contact may be more than a monthly surgery and opening the annual fete.

In the last election I voted for the youngest candidate, not because he was the youngest but because he had ideas, some may be impractical, but nevertheless some worth considering. I would rather him than someone who is just going to quote the part line, because they are so imbued in party politics.

Your last line is your opinion. It is not unknown for a Conservative council to waste money, for instance one led by someone called Johnson (Garden Bridge, water canons, City Hall, Arcuri).

 

[alex397]

One benefit of a Tory-run council is that they are likely to be more frugal with other people's money.

Are you sure about that?

My local Tory council have wasted money on vanity schemes and poor decisions, and the Government have notoriously wasted incredible amounts over the pandemic.

 

[ainsworth74]

One benefit of a Tory-run council is that they are likely to be more frugal with other people's money.

Indeed! A Tory-run council would never spend £6m of tax payers money on a mound of fake dirt. Oh...

Marble Arch Mound: Deputy leader resigns amid spiralling costs​

The deputy leader of a London council responsible for the ballooning costs of the Marble Arch Mound has resigned.

Melvyn Caplan stepped down immediately after total costs nearly doubled to £6m, up from a forecast of £3.3m.

Ticketholders were offered refunds for the artificial viewing platform which temporarily closed within two days of opening on 26 July.

A review to "understand what went wrong and ensure it never happens again" is under way, Westminster Council said.

...

Marble Arch Mound: Deputy leader resigns amid spiralling costs

Westminster Council's Melvyn Caplan steps down after total costs nearly doubled to £6m.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[brad465]

Worrying that Labour does not appear to be attracting the younger potential candidates, while the Conservatives do. Nothing wrong with the latter, but the former is, in my eyes, undesireable. (Sorry, I didn't phrase that at all well.)

Whatever the council, there needs to be representatives across the age spectrum and, locally, the Labour representatives seem to be drawn from the retired. or nearly retired, cohort. It should be that someone elected to the council in their twenties and thirties is as commonplace as someone in their seventies but it isn't. At least locally, the Conservatives appear to have understood that. There is a chance that younger councillors would want to be considered as candidates for parliament. I would rather that a local candidate stood than someone parachuted in, in particular, a party apparatchik, who has never had a real job. For a start they will have an affinity and understanding of the constituency. If they gain a cabinet position or served on a sub committee they may have learnt how local government really works, where the problems lie. They may also live locally so contact may be more than a monthly surgery and opening the annual fete.

In the last election I voted for the youngest candidate, not because he was the youngest but because he had ideas, some may be impractical, but nevertheless some worth considering. I would rather him than someone who is just going to quote the part line, because they are so imbued in party politics.

Your last line is your opinion. It is not unknown for a Conservative council to waste money, for instance one led by someone called Johnson (Garden Bridge, water canons, City Hall, Arcuri).

Are you sure about that?

My local Tory council have wasted money on vanity schemes and poor decisions, and the Government have notoriously wasted incredible amounts over the pandemic.

Indeed! A Tory-run council would never spend £6m of tax payers money on a mound of fake dirt. Oh...

Marble Arch Mound: Deputy leader resigns amid spiralling costs

Westminster Council's Melvyn Caplan steps down after total costs nearly doubled to £6m.

www.bbc.co.uk

I'm not fully up to scratch about all sources of council funding beyond council tax, but if this isn't already the case I think a law needs to exist that discloses all council income sources, so we can see which councils are receiving the most government handouts/bailouts, and thus work out if pork barrel politics is in play anywhere.

 

[JamesT]

I'm not fully up to scratch about all sources of council funding beyond council tax, but if this isn't already the case I think a law needs to exist that discloses all council income sources, so we can see which councils are receiving the most government handouts/bailouts, and thus work out if pork barrel politics is in play anywhere.

Councils are obliged to publish their accounts yearly, which should contain the sources of income. Usually the focus on council budgets is more with expenditure.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Indeed! A Tory-run council would never spend £6m of tax payers money on a mound of fake dirt. Oh...

Marble Arch Mound: Deputy leader resigns amid spiralling costs

Westminster Council's Melvyn Caplan steps down after total costs nearly doubled to £6m.

www.bbc.co.uk

Haha! I guess more generally the point is that big schemes do sometimes go wrong. Sometimes it's because the scheme was ill-advised and the politician was too keen to push it through and not paying enough attention to professional advisors (I suspect the garden bridge probably fell into that category), and sometimes it's bad project planning (Crossrail?) or bad luck outside the politician's control (Millennium Done, which simply turned out to be not very popular?). Politicians of all parties are prone to those kinds of failings. However, Labour (and to a lesser extent LibDem) politicians tend to believe in big-state interventions and infrastructure. Conservatives have for most of the last 50 years tended to believe more in small Government and financial prudence [1]. For that reason, I'd expect more failures to be happening under Labour control, for the simple reason that I'd expect more big projects to be being pushed by Labour and some proportion of those will go wrong. The flip side is obviously a greater likelihood of things that local councils/the Government should be doing getting neglected by Tory councils who are more inclined to want to restrict spending.

As an example, a year or so ago, my local Labour council decided to spend money on repainting lots of pedestrian crossings in rainbow colours. To my mind, while I agree with the cause, that's an inappropriate use of public money - because the crossings were perfectly good as they were, and making political statements, no matter how well-meaning, is not the purpose of pedestrian crossings. That seems to me to be an example of the kind of mis-spending of public money that it's harder to imagine the Tories doing than Labour doing (Obviously that example is a much smaller amount of money than things like the Marble Arch mound).

[1] Maybe that's changing a bit now that the Tories have a Prime Minister who seems to believe in big projects - I'm sure that must be leading to more similarly-minded people to be joining the Conservative party and then becoming councillors.

 

[edwin_m]

Haha! I guess more generally the point is that big schemes do sometimes go wrong. Sometimes it's because the scheme was ill-advised and the politician was too keen to push it through and not paying enough attention to professional advisors (I suspect the garden bridge probably fell into that category), and sometimes it's bad project planning (Crossrail?) or bad luck outside the politician's control (Millennium Done, which simply turned out to be not very popular?). Politicians of all parties are prone to those kinds of failings. However, Labour (and to a lesser extent LibDem) politicians tend to believe in big-state interventions and infrastructure. Conservatives have for most of the last 50 years tended to believe more in small Government and financial prudence [1]. For that reason, I'd expect more failures to be happening under Labour control, for the simple reason that I'd expect more big projects to be being pushed by Labour and some proportion of those will go wrong. The flip side is obviously a greater likelihood of things that local councils/the Government should be doing getting neglected by Tory councils who are more inclined to want to restrict spending.

As an example, a year or so ago, my local Labour council decided to spend money on repainting lots of pedestrian crossings in rainbow colours. To my mind, while I agree with the cause, that's an inappropriate use of public money - because the crossings were perfectly good as they were, and making political statements, no matter how well-meaning, is not the purpose of pedestrian crossings. That seems to me to be an example of the kind of mis-spending of public money that it's harder to imagine the Tories doing than Labour doing (Obviously that example is a much smaller amount of money than things like the Marble Arch mound).

[1] Maybe that's changing a bit now that the Tories have a Prime Minister who seems to believe in big projects - I'm sure that must be leading to more similarly-minded people to be joining the Conservative party and then becoming councillors.

The Garden Bridge and Dangleway were pure boondoggles by a Conservative mayor spending tens of millions of public money for no obvious public benefit. The Boris buses cost a lot more than an alternative that would have worked better, purely for political vanity.

And if painting pedestrian crossings in rainbow colours is an inappropriate use of public money, what's painting the side of a large building with a Union flag?

 

[Typhoon]

His performance (as a former Foreign Secretary, now PM) over Afghanistan has turned out to be pretty uninspiring.

OK. it won't lose him many votes at the ballot box, but the Great and the Good (in particular the men in grey suits) may start to question his inept performance and wonder whether it is time to look elsewhere (and it won't be Raab).

 

[busmanaams]

Leave Boris alone! He is doing quite nicely alienating Scots voters towards the Independence camp. There WILL be another referendum and then we can rid ourselves of the shackles of an outdated Union. And before we have the traditional chorus of complainers, ask yourselves this = Why are the English so adamant that Scottish Independence won't work? Could the English possibly mean that it won't benefit them? So just leave Boris alone. The longer that buffoon stays in office the better!

 

[brad465]

His performance (as a former Foreign Secretary, now PM) over Afghanistan has turned out to be pretty uninspiring.

OK. it won't lose him many votes at the ballot box, but the Great and the Good (in particular the men in grey suits) may start to question his inept performance and wonder whether it is time to look elsewhere (and it won't be Raab).

There certainly wasn't a united showing on the Tory side of the house; the veterans were critical, and then Redwood and May clearly were not getting on.

Leave Boris alone! He is doing quite nicely alienating Scots voters towards the Independence camp. There WILL be another referendum and then we can rid ourselves of the shackles of an outdated Union. And before we have the traditional chorus of complainers, ask yourselves this = Why are the English so adamant that Scottish Independence won't work? Could the English possibly mean that it won't benefit them? So just leave Boris alone. The longer that buffoon stays in office the better!

Just wait for opinion polling to drop for the Tories, then they suddenly decide to announce they're scrapping or watering down the Barnett formula, then English voter support shoots up again, while at the same time building independence support in Scotland.

 

[edwin_m]

If he thinks about Scotland at all, I suspect Bozo would be entirely happy for it to separate and remove a block of mostly non-Tory votes.

 

[Morgsie]

I apologise for dragging this thread up again but The Tories have broken 2 Manifesto Committments now, International Aid cut and the rise in National Insurance given they ruled out tax rises. I wonder if the Tories will get a lot of stick for these like I did over the Lib Dems and Tuition Fees?

 

[NorthOxonian]

I apologise for dragging this thread up again but The Tories have broken 2 Manifesto Committments now, International Aid cut and the rise in National Insurance given they ruled out tax rises. I wonder if the Tories will get a lot of stick for these like I did over the Lib Dems and Tuition Fees?

I know a few Conservatives - and they're all incandescent. Only anecdotal and they're probably more working class than your average Tory, but there are a lot of people annoyed at some of the poorest in society picking up the tab for the care of some of the wealthiest.

 

[Typhoon]

I apologise for dragging this thread up again but The Tories have broken 2 Manifesto Committments now, International Aid cut and the rise in National Insurance given they ruled out tax rises. I wonder if the Tories will get a lot of stick for these like I did over the Lib Dems and Tuition Fees?

Wasn't the Triple Lock on pensions also a manifesto promise?

I'm not certain that raising the NI next year then having the Health and Social Care tax the year after is a brilliant idea, some people will see that as two rises in tax (even though it isn't).

(No need to apologise - its a major development.)

I know a few Conservatives - and they're all incandescent. Only anecdotal and they're probably more working class than your average Tory, but there are a lot of people annoyed at some of the poorest in society picking up the tab for the care of some of the wealthiest.

Quite right - Labour need to push that it ought to be paid for by an increase in income tax, not NI as that falls more heavily on the better paid. I understand what you are saying about your acquaintances but they are the people who got Johnson over the line (not the upper middle class)!

 

[bb21]

I know a few Conservatives - and they're all incandescent. Only anecdotal and they're probably more working class than your average Tory, but there are a lot of people annoyed at some of the poorest in society picking up the tab for the care of some of the wealthiest.

But will it translate into ballot box tickets though?

He is not Teflon for no reason.

 

[Bodiddly]

A dangerous, pathological liar followed by a harem of clueless bandits.
The Pablo Escobar of UK politics.

 

[brad465]

I would have thought the triple lock breaking would be the most damaging move, as this hits a key Tory demographic hardest. How long an impact lasts though remains to be seen.

 

[SteveM70]

I would have thought the triple lock breaking would be the most damaging move, as this hits a key Tory demographic hardest. How long an impact lasts though remains to be seen.

My God, a day I never thought I’d see. But I actually agree with them on this.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I know a few Conservatives - and they're all incandescent. Only anecdotal and they're probably more working class than your average Tory, but there are a lot of people annoyed at some of the poorest in society picking up the tab for the care of some of the wealthiest.

The chart on this BBC report showing how much extra tax you pay at different salary levels looks pretty progressive to me - someone earning £20K pays an extra £130/year, while someone on £100K pays an extra £1130 - ten times the extra tax for five times the extra salary. Also, no-one seems to be pointing out that dividend tax is also going up by the same amount. Having said that, I would have preferred an increase in income tax rather than NI.

In terms of how it impacts the Tories. I'm not sure... If you're a Tory voter and angry because you don't want taxes to go up, who else are you going to vote for? Certainly not Labour or the LibDems, who are even more keen on tax rises. And in terms of manifesto promises - I think most people are level-headed enough to realise that the 2019 manifestos were all written before Covid upended everything and you can't expect the Government not to change plans a bit in response to Covid.

 

[NorthOxonian]

In terms of how it impacts the Tories. I'm not sure... If you're a Tory voter and angry because you don't want taxes to go up, who else are you going to vote for? Certainly not Labour or the LibDems, who are even more keen on tax rises. And in terms of manifesto promises - I think most people are level-headed enough to realise that the 2019 manifestos were all written before Covid upended everything and you can't expect the Government not to change plans a bit in response to Covid.

A lot of those voters might not bother voting at all - that doesn't hurt the Tories as much as if they switch to Labour, but it still hurts a bit.

Others may look for an alternative. At the moment, there isn't a credible party to the right of the Conservatives, but they may vote for independents or a potential resurgent Brexit/Reform Party - some who are economically right wing but socially liberal may even go Lib Dem (since Davey is fairly moderate).