When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[Busaholic]

The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/politic...lies-vote-of-no-confidence-conservative-party) now reporting that Boris and his team is switching gear, having now realised that the vote of no confidence is increasingly likely. Grant Shapps earlier today said he did not think there would be a vote this week; Paul Scully (business minister) is now saying that it "might well happen" but that Boris will "face it down". So Boris will beaver away at trying to demonstrate how indispensable he is to the country and is introducing simply wonderful new policies, sorting out the NHS, that sort of thing. A source is quoted as saying that Boris wouldn't resign if he only won by a small margin, but I simply don't believe that, or - rather - he won't resign but he'll be stabbed in the front by his ex-colleagues if he refuses to go under these circumstances. Interesting times.

He might not resign (active) but be resigned (passive)!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Truss was an enthusiastic 'remainer' until the day after the Referendum: she's just as must a chancer as Johnson. Her attempts at trying to take the 'credit' for Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe's release were dealt severe blows in the latter'sin-depth interview with Emma Barnett on the BBC. She is an entirely insubstantial figure like so many in this government, and appears to share Johnson's casual attitude about whom she mates with. A modern-day Edwina Currie imo, another one who used to be an enthusiastic European before becoming a Johnson groupie.

There in lies the rub with Tory MPs in that none of the contenders offer anything better. There is also the issue that various camps within the Tories want BoJo out but aren't exactly aligned with each other to pick a suitable candidate.

Much as i want him gone and his largely sycophantic cabinet there is a risk here is that he will squeak back in and then we are stuck with him for another 12mths which may give Rishi enough rehabilitation time to give it a shot.

 

[jfollows]

Much as i want him gone and his largely sycophantic cabinet there is a risk here is that he will squeak back in and then we are stuck with him for another 12mths which may give Rishi enough rehabilitation time to give it a shot.

My feeling, in no way better informed than yours or anyone else's, it's just a guess, is that if he scrapes through a vote of no confidence then he'll be told he has to resign, and if he continues to refuse to resign then a number of senior members of the Cabinet would themselves resign, at which point even he might work out that he's done for.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

My feeling, in no way better informed than yours or anyone else's, it's just a guess, is that if he scrapes through a vote of no confidence then he'll be told he has to resign, and if he continues to refuse to resign then a number of senior members of the Cabinet would themselves resign, at which point even he might work out that he's done for.

There too sycophantic to do the honourable thing.

 

[brad465]

The Independent (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-partygate-secret-ballot-b2094351.html) suggests that Boris might lose a confidence vote as soon as Tuesday, because significant numbers of ministers will vote against him in the secret ballot. I'm not convinced that things will move quite so rapidly, but I do believe that if there's a vote then he's got to win by a convincing margin and not just scrape across the line.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are a number of MPs who stick by him for now, but when faced with a confidence vote will vote him out, because in that situation it's better to get rid of him and gamble on an unknown successor than to give him a year's immunity and all the damage he can do knowing he's even more untouchable.

My feeling, in no way better informed than yours or anyone else's, it's just a guess, is that if he scrapes through a vote of no confidence then he'll be told he has to resign, and if he continues to refuse to resign then a number of senior members of the Cabinet would themselves resign, at which point even he might work out that he's done for.

The only way I can see Johnson going willingly is if he's bribed with a very lucrative role on the post-politics' gravy train.

 

[birchesgreen]

So Boris will beaver away at trying to demonstrate how indispensable he is to the country and is introducing simply wonderful new policies, sorting out the NHS, that sort of thing.

He is going to bring back pre-deciminalised old money isn't he?

 

[dosxuk]

a number of senior members of the Cabinet would themselves resign, at which point even he might work out that he's done for.

Not going to happen. Pretty much the entire cabinet is appointed based on loyalty to Boris rather than ability. The entire rest of the party will have to turn against him for any of that lot to consider their position. The cabinet also know full well that if BigDog goes, so does their cushy cabinet role.

It's one of the reasons there are no front runner replacements - all the big jobs, which traditionally supply the successor are currently taken up by a bunch of people with no skills or likeability.

 

[daodao]

He is going to bring back pre-deciminalised old money isn't he?

He'd like people to be high on LSD?!

Seriously, I don't see the point in the Tories ditching Bojo now. I fail to see how the way he has conducted himself since he became PM is unexpected and his character would have been taken into account by those who chose him to be Tory leader or voted Tory at the general election (GE) in 2019. There is no obvious successor. The opposition Labour party is now led by a dour nasty vindictive man who, while clever and wily, will not be an asset to them at the next GE and has no appeal in "Red Wall" seats. Like Bojo, he was also cavalier with the Covid lockdown rules. In any case, it will be difficult for Labour to gain power as it cannot risk any whiff of potential collaboration with enemies of the UK state (principally the SNP) in the next GE campaign, and seems unlikely to overturn the SNP ascendancy in Scotland; Unionists there would be best off voting Tory.

 

[Ediswan]

He is going to bring back pre-deciminalised old money isn't he?

Fine, so long as the price for crossing the Thames at Dartford reverts to a half-crown (2/6, 12.5p). From what I recall, the only place that weird coin saved time.

 

[birchesgreen]

Gruniad are reporting that Brady has enough letters and will announce the vote of no confidence today.

 

[Shrop]

Gruniad are reporting that Brady has enough letters and will announce the vote of no confidence today.

And there we have it as just announced. This will be an interesting evening once the ballot is in ...

 

[dgl]

The question now is will the vote of no confidence succeed, not necessarily because they don't like Boris, but because they can see that the current situation is heavily damaging for the tories and if they want to keep their jobs then he has to go.

 

[Acfb]

Hopefully ~55% of MPs still vote for Johnson this evening, that would be the most damaging outcome.

 

[Failed Unit]

I think he will win it, then will just get worse for the next year as he knows he is untouchable (losing every by-election / council in the process). Then they will get a big loss in the next general election. It is a pity that Mr Shapps doesn't appreciate he could be out as well at the next general election, most people I speak to won't forgive him either for his loyalty to Boris.

 

[jfollows]

The Independent (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-partygate-secret-ballot-b2094351.html) suggests that Boris might lose a confidence vote as soon as Tuesday, because significant numbers of ministers will vote against him in the secret ballot. I'm not convinced that things will move quite so rapidly, but I do believe that if there's a vote then he's got to win by a convincing margin and not just scrape across the line.

Well, I was wrong as frequently is the case on this one .....!

I will be proved wrong again, but I think the only way the Conservatives don’t lose the Tiverton & Honiton by-election is if Johnson goes today, how much will the voting MPs think the same and act on it?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I think he will win it, then will just get worse for the next year as he knows he is untouchable (losing every by-election / council in the process). Then they will get a big loss in the next general election. It is a pity that Mr Shapps doesn't appreciate he could be out as well at the next general election, most people I speak to won't forgive him either for his loyalty to Boris.

Shapps is in an invidious position along with other cabinet ministers that if BoJo goes hes out of job if he doesn't BoJo will be emboldened to deal with anyone in teh cabinet he doesn't want anymore.

Personally I believe this will prove to be a bad call by the Tories forcing the issue now before the by elections in that BoJo will survive by a small margin and that will just reinforce his ego and those of hi sycophantic mates.

 

[Snow1964]

Well, I was wrong as frequently is the case on this one .....!

I will be proved wrong again, but I think the only way the Conservatives don’t lose the Tiverton & Honiton by-election is if Johnson goes today, how much will the voting MPs think the same and act on it?

One of the odd characteristics of Boris Johnson, is he is popular with the gullible. Those that believe he will deliver on what he says.

Everyone I have ever spoke to (admittedly in South of England) seems to think he is somewhere between a clown and toxic for the conservatives and if he stays is going to lose a lot of seats in south.

His rants about how Brexit is good, have flipped in the South to show someone that is out of touch and misled people. People didn’t have passport delays, problems ordering specialist items from Europe, services that closed early due to lack of staff etc before Brexit. It is now simply seen as a bad thing causing problems with no real upsides

If you want a prediction Ithink Tiverton & Honiton will go Lib Dem

 

[ainsworth74]

Thought there was an excellent letter from Jesse Normal (a Tory MP) this morning via Twitter:

https://twitter.com/Jesse_Norman/status/1533699235417403393

 

[Howardh]

Thought there was an excellent letter from Jesse Normal (a Tory MP) this morning via Twitter:

https://twitter.com/Jesse_Norman/status/1533699235417403393

Other than that the thousands that died of covid might disagree that he steered the country through it, or that Brexit (whether you are for or against it) currently is an omnishambles and needs sorting (just like UK Transport). Apart from that it's pretty damning.

If he loses I hope the incomer rids us of Patel, Dorries, Mogg, Shapps, Raab and Gove from the cabinet.

 

[telstarbox]

He'll probably win it tonight simply because there's no obvious 'unity candidate' to replace him.

 

[Shrop]

Those hardcore Boris supporters who are still saying this morning that they are 100% behind him, despite knowing that at least 54 of their colleagues want him to go, are they not digging their own graves for the next general election?

 

[brad465]

It would be somewhat amusing if Johnson wins the vote by 52%.

 

[gg1]

Those hardcore Boris supporters who are still saying this morning that they are 100% behind him, despite knowing that at least 54 of their colleagues want him to go, are they not digging their own graves for the next general election?

I suspect many of them are (correctly) of the opinion that no one other than Boris would give them a senior position anyway so they don't have much to lose.

 

[Howardh]

It would be somewhat amusing if Johnson wins the vote by 52%.

Indeed! Or even if he only got 48% I suppose!

 

[96tommy]

I think Boris will win with approx 75% of the vote. Is there such thing as a win in a vote of confidence though.... history suggests not? Him and his loyal supporters will come out saying how brilliant he is..... but what if they lose the upcoming by elections?

I think the vote would be very different of it tool place in a couple of weeks time, I wouldn't be surprised if some allies have put in letters to boost the numbers to make sure the vote happens now rather than then

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Other than that the thousands that died of covid might disagree that he steered the country through it, or that Brexit (whether you are for or against it) currently is an omnishambles and needs sorting (just like UK Transport). Apart from that it's pretty damning.

If he loses I hope the incomer rids us of Patel, Dorries, Mogg, Shapps, Raab and Gove from the cabinet.

There all dead meat if he goes would only see Wallace and Eustace standing any chance of retention which is why by surrounding himself with sycophantics he will scrape by. That will be enough for him and he will just carry on doing what he wants but emboldened. This won't have a happy ending for the country but particularly NI.

 

[Lost property]

If I said I thought the immortal definitive words of a Mr Bevan would never be surpassed, but then came Ms Rayner, who did, this may offer an idea as to my political allegiances . That said, given the damage he's caused to the genuine Tory party, hopefully it will take them another ten years to recover after the next no confidence vote, let's call it a G.E. ...takes place because they do have a place in the UK political landscape and, every so often, have produced politicians who are a credit to themselves and to politics In the meantime, given three word mantra's have been very popular of late, "Toxic For Tories " is a welcome addition.

We can now await the usual Boris faux apologies, the bluster, the usual default lies and the sight of his equally charmless wife standing loyally by his side....and Nadine offering her unrivalled support in her own inimitable style...

 

[nlogax]

Little chance of Johnson losing this VONC. Realistically we can hope for a relatively poor show of support and the ensuing slow decay of his premiership as the message finally sinks in over the next twelve months while the cost of living crisis properly takes hold. Unless of course Brady and the 1922C change the rules and we witness another VONC before the end of the year.

 

[Typhoon]

Thought there was an excellent letter from Jesse Normal (a Tory MP) this morning via Twitter

I agree, it me it was well measured. Really 'I supported you through thick and thin, through good times and bad but this is a step too far and it is time for you to go.'
He may be anticipating a narrow failure of the vote of no confidence. Johnson won't take the blindest bit of notice of the Baker's, Davis', Gale's, Kearns' and Wagg's of this world but might (just might) listen to those who could be regarded as allies. At the end of the day, the likes of Norman want a Conservative government and if he thinks that adopting a subdued tone might help achieve it, he would regard that as a worthwhile move.

Other than that the thousands that died of covid might disagree that he steered the country through it, or that Brexit (whether you are for or against it) currently is an omnishambles and needs sorting (just like UK Transport). Apart from that it's pretty damning.

Given the role his wife took, I think it unlikely he would be critical of the former.

 

[brad465]

The Institute for Government claim there are around 160-170 MPs on Government payroll, which if true would give Johnson a good chance of winning, and debunk any notion they're the party for small Government.