When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[tommy2215]

Good to see the Tories lost both by elections. Not a huge fan of any party really but this current Government deserve every kicking they get. That and the Tories will only do things in the public interest if they are made too.

Sir John Curtice had some pretty dire warnings for the Tories on BBC radio 4 this morning. No incumbent government has done as bad in by elections as Boris is doing since the Major government and we know what happened in 1997. He also mentioned that unlike in the 2019 election, there is now clear tactical voting going on that will make it very hard for the Tories to hold on to their majority at the next election.

I do worry though that these results will encourage the Government to introduce yet more new voting laws that make it harder to vote them out.

 

[Shrop]

To some extent last night's by-election results were predictable, but they are nevertheless two more nails in Boris's leadership coffin. Watching reports this morning whilst flicking between channels, but listening to what doorstep voters had to say, there is just so much despair at Boris's lack of integrity and lies throughout Partygate. Yes, of course some people may have been pro Labour in Wakefield and pro LibDem in Tiverton, but it appears that a far bigger reason for these two Tory losses is the strength of the anti-Boris vote.

It follows that those Tories who cling on to their ever diminishing power and continue to say Boris is the best person for the job, all they are doing is telling the country that they have no better alternative prospect for a leader, which simply serves to damage the Tory Party further. The Tory who probably has most respect among voters of all colours this morning, is Oliver Dowden, who has at least shown some integrity and given a thinly veiled message that Boris is no longer the person for the job. Unless other Tories get their acts together sharpish, then they will be seen more and more, as digging an ever deeper hole for themselves.

Or put it another way. Those Tories who cling on to Boris's tails after last night, are showing that they are putting their own dwindling careers ahead of the interests of their constituents. For those who genuinely value Tory principles (as distinct from those of Boris), surely by now you should be able to see that getting rid of Boris is the only way the Tories stand any chance at the next GE. And every day of delay is another fistful of Tory votes lost.

 

[takno]

I believe this is likely to happen, not least because the Conservatives control the parliamentary timetable and look to be significant beneficiaries from the changes.

The Conservatives always assume they will be the beneficiaries of boundary changes, but rarely are. They have a tendency to be too lazy to do the groundwork - they'll just say things like "we have almost all the seats in Devon, so another seat in Devon will certainly go to us". In fact the disruption and lack of "established" second places tends to provide an opportunity for opposition parties to create a new narrative and actually win more than just the new seats

 

[jfollows]

The Conservatives always assume they will be the beneficiaries of boundary changes, but rarely are. They have a tendency to be too lazy to do the groundwork - they'll just say things like "we have almost all the seats in Devon, so another seat in Devon will certainly go to us". In fact the disruption and lack of "established" second places tends to provide an opportunity for opposition parties to create a new narrative and actually win more than just the new seats

Electoral Calculus reckons that the initial proposals for boundary changes published on 8 June 2021 "show the Conservatives gaining fifteen seats in England, while Labour loses four seats." (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023.html)
Also (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/bdy2023_ec_auto.html) - the difference in seat losses for Labour, for example, is that the "four seats" above are for England alone whereas the following table is for the UK as a whole (showing 9 seats fewer for Labour under the new boundaries in the 2019 election).

The Conservatives gain around 15 seats and Labour lose about 10 seats. Changes like this are expected because Wales and the North East of England are over-represented and lose seats, and areas such as the South and East of England are under-represented and gain seats. The predicted loss of five Liberal Democrat seats may not be an accurate prediction, since the Lib Dems often cope with changing boundaries with effective local campaigning.

Disregarding the Lib Dem seats for a moment, there is a predicted net swing of about 10 seats from Labour to Conservative as a result of the example boundary changes. This is equivalent to a swing of about 1pc in the popular vote from Labour to Conservative, which is a relatively modest move. In the year 2020 so far, there was an initial pro-Conservative swing of 6pc, and then a counter-swing back to Labour of more than 10pc. So a 1pc swing is small compared with those political trends.

This article contains details of the algorithm used to generate the example new boundaries, as well as creating artificial examples of what unfair (or Gerrymandered) boundaries would look like. These unfair boundaries can be used to create a test to check whether the final official new boundaries are indeed relatively fair or not.

 

[Kite159]

He's only got four weeks until the Summer Recess. And he is off to Rwanda (Commonwealth Heads of State) for the next week. They really need some 'rally round the flag' (or, at least, around Big Dog) legislation to boost the mood of the troops - the threatened legislation to allow agency staff to cover for striking workers would help but there probably isn't time. Once he hits the recess, the pressure is off.


In Wakefield the LibDem vote was even less significant than in 2019; in Tiverton and Honiton the Labour vote collapsed (although they were second in 2019). The electorate were certain who they didn't want - and set out to achieve that; they were less certain of who they did. Added to that a decent performance by the independent in Wakefield.


Interesting words in Dowden's resignation letter: He must have known who wouldn't. I wonder if the letter was already written?

Edit: Central Office need to ensure all MPs get a regular health check, their mobile phones are checked weekly, and they wear a tracker. No (Conservative) by-elections before the end of the year will do them a world of good.

Or they can do what labour & SNP MPs do when they get caught out, get kicked out of the party but remain as an independent MP staying on the gravy train.

Ie Leicester East, or the area that SNP Maggie is for.

The Lib Dems do well in by-elections getting protest votes, and poor Wakefield going back under the rot of labour

 

[ainsworth74]

and poor Wakefield going back under the rot of labour

As opposed to the good governance exemplified by the Tory Party and their previous local MP a, checks notes, convicted sex offender and their candidate, checks notes again, who drew allusions between serial killer Harold Shipman and MPs? I would think the "rot of Labour" might be an improvement. And presumably so did the people of Wakefield...

 

[Gloster]

A cynic might feel that Dowden’s resignation has more to do with his own career than anything else: covering himself both ways. On one side he is falling on his sword to protect Big Dog and could hope, in due course, to get some reward from Johnson if he stays as PM. If Johnson does fall, he has got out before the disaster and can offer himself up to a new leader, if he isn’t himself that new leader, as someone with Cabinet experience who isn’t tarnished by being dragged down in the final collapse.

 

[GS250]

Or they can do what labour & SNP MPs do when they get caught out, get kicked out of the party but remain as an independent MP staying on the gravy train.

Ie Leicester East, or the area that SNP Maggie is for.

The Lib Dems do well in by-elections getting protest votes, and poor Wakefield going back under the rot of labour

The 'red wall' was always a borrowed vote anyway. Most just wanted Brexit done. A lot, also found Labour's social narrative not of their liking. The former is no longer really an issue, the latter though, may well be.

Now is not a good time to be in power in most countries I'd say. I genuinely think the USA will reverse back to the Republicans and Britain will end up with a hung parliament of some description. Not because of the brilliance of the opposition, but because people will demand change.

To me the 90's were the zenith of standard of living for the average Joe. Is the only way down now?

 

[SteveM70]

A cynic might feel that Dowden’s resignation has more to do with his own career than anything else: covering himself both ways. On one side he is falling on his sword to protect Big Dog and could hope, in due course, to get some reward from Johnson if he stays as PM. If Johnson does fall, he has got out before the disaster and can offer himself up to a new leader, if he isn’t himself that new leader, as someone with Cabinet experience who isn’t tarnished by being dragged down in the final collapse.

Maybe. But Dowden’s resignation letter was interesting, because he makes a point about his allegiance to the party, not to Johnson. Normally designation letters include statements of loyalty to the leader personally.

Dowden has surprised me though, I never had him down as having a backbone

 

[jfollows]

Dowden also owns up to some responsibility for the dreadful candidates in both by-elections, the Conservative candidate in Tiverton & Honiton acted as if she'd lost the election from the start and ran away from the media all the time, not only immediately after the results, whereas the Lib Dem candidate openly embraced the media, for example in accompanying him whilst canvassing. The Wakefield candidate was also pretty terrible, as has been mentioned above already.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

As a Labour member I actually think the Wakefield result is a bit of a damp squib result for Labour as they didn't even get 50% and the Labour vote share is actually 1.8% lower than in 2017. Still a wins a win and the Tories couldn't have realistically gone much below 30% there I suppose.

The 'red wall' was always a borrowed vote anyway. Most just wanted Brexit done. A lot, also found Labour's social narrative not of their liking. The former is no longer really an issue, the latter though, may well be.

Yeah, the Wakefield result looks even less good for Labour when you account for the large vote share for the Independent - actually an ex-Tory councillor who seems more like an anti-Boris Tory than a true no-party independent.

Wakefield was never an ultra-safe Labour seat (other than briefly during the 1970s). But I do think the much smaller anti-Tory swing in Wakefield compared to Tiverton reflects long-term changes: Ever since the 1980s, Labour has moved in a culturally very liberal direction, very aligned with University areas and with cosmopolitan places like London, but very badly aligned with their traditional working class voters. You can see the long term electoral result of that in Labour's domination of once-marginal London, as well as Labour - despite the 2019 debacle - still having a smattering of SouthEastern seats that they would never have stood a chance of holding during the Thatcher years. But the other side of that is that they are going to struggle more in the culturally more conservative red wall, where voters increasingly see Labour as alienated from their own values. Labour may well keep Wakefield at the next election, depending on how much that Tories can recover between now and then, but I would say it's one of a number of previously safe-ish Labour seats that are becoming increasingly marginal, even once you discount the 2019 Brexit/Corbyn factor.

 

[gabrielhj07]

The Conservatives really made no effort to retain T&H in terms of campaigning. The Lib Dems were rather more active.

 

[brad465]

As a Labour member I actually think the Wakefield result is a bit of a damp squib result for Labour as they didn't even get 50% and the Labour vote share is actually 1.8% lower than in 2017. Still a wins a win and the Tories couldn't have realistically gone much below 30% there I suppose.

Perception matters a lot in politics, and while Labour didn't quite get a majority of votes, they comfortably took back the seat and voters Labour need to target will see this result as a sign they're heading in the right direction. They'll need a strong party conference though to set out what they stand for to help this momentum be sustained.

Lib Dems have no chance of holding North Shropshire or Tiverton and Honiton at the next election however it's still good for LD morale in the Southwest and will boost LD chances of winning back constituencies in Somerset next door such as Taunton and there is still a potential by election in Somerton and Frome which would be another LD gain if it does happen.

The Lib Dems have around 30 target seats, assuming these are on top of the ones they won in 2019. I suspect North Shropshire and T&H are not among them, but Chesham & Amersham might be. There probably will be target seats in the South West though, given strong local election results there for them recently and this being their heartlands pre-2015. I think their strategy is to get enough seats to potentially support Labour in a coalition/progressive alliance, get proportional representation introduced, then they will be a much stronger force under that voting system, while the Tories will never hold power without radical reform under PR.

 

[Busaholic]

Wakefield was never an ultra-safe Labour seat (other than briefly during the 1970s).

An interesting viewpoint, given that Labour had held the seat since a by-election in 1931 right up to 2019!

P.S. Ex Tory leader and arch Brexiteer Michael Howard says Johnson must go asap.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

An interesting viewpoint, given that Labour had held the seat since a by-election in 1931 right up to 2019!

Oh sure, Labour held the seat continuously, but apart from during the 1970s it was almost never with a huge majority (and in 1983 the Tories came within a whisker of taking the seat). I would have classed it as a moderately safe Labour seat - it's not one the ultra-safe ones where Labour could normally count on 60%+ of the vote. You can check the historical results on Wikipedia

 

[Cloud Strife]

Or they can do what labour & SNP MPs do when they get caught out, get kicked out of the party but remain as an independent MP staying on the gravy train.

At least where the SNP is concerned, the membership would be very happy for them to resign. I know Mark McDonald socially, and he was told by many people (myself included) that he should resign for his misconduct. A lot of us were very, very unhappy with his decision to continue sitting in the Scottish Parliament.

But going back to the topic: one difficult question for Labour and the Lib Dems is that they will almost certainly need the SNP vote to secure a majority unless the Tories collapse completely. The SNP won't support anyone unless they grant an independence referendum, or at the very least, a substantial agreement to federalise the UK so that a situation like Brexit cannot happen without Scotland's consent.

 

[Kite159]

At least where the SNP is concerned, the membership would be very happy for them to resign. I know Mark McDonald socially, and he was told by many people (myself included) that he should resign for his misconduct. A lot of us were very, very unhappy with his decision to continue sitting in the Scottish Parliament.

I was thinking more about Margaret Ferrier and her travels when she had Covid. Kicked out from the SNPs but is still an MP.

 

[Shrop]

The Lib Dems have around 30 target seats, assuming these are on top of the ones they won in 2019. I suspect North Shropshire and T&H are not among them, but Chesham & Amersham might be. There probably will be target seats in the South West though, given strong local election results there for them recently and this being their heartlands pre-2015. I think their strategy is to get enough seats to potentially support Labour in a coalition/progressive alliance, get proportional representation introduced, then they will be a much stronger force under that voting system, while the Tories will never hold power without radical reform under PR.

The idea of supporting Labour to get PR introduced is okay in theory, however in practice are Labour MPs savvy enough to see it through? The Tories have always been the Party to benefit most from the present system, but I remember leading up to the Blair days, there was hope for a PR system to be introduced. However, once Labour were in power, they suddenly thought they no longer needed PR. Then once they realised it would have benefitted them after all, they no longer had the power to introduce it.

Would they be any different another time?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

You've really got to laugh at these self-important media-types who are childishly-overactive (too much tartrazine 102 in their orange juice?) in their need to try to develop a "will Johnson now go" storyline, as they will achieve absolutely nothing by those efforts.

Still, it's good for a laugh.

 

[neilmc]

Dowden also owns up to some responsibility for the dreadful candidates in both by-elections, the Conservative candidate in Tiverton & Honiton acted as if she'd lost the election from the start and ran away from the media all the time, not only immediately after the results, whereas the Lib Dem candidate openly embraced the media, for example in accompanying him whilst canvassing. The Wakefield candidate was also pretty terrible, as has been mentioned above already.

Quite. The Tories don't seem to have much appetite for actually fighting for seats on the ground. Recently I put my name down as a Liberal Democrat candidate for a local election in a seat which was deemed unlikely to be won, but I thought local constituents should have had the choice. The Conservatives put up two candidates (it's a two-member ward) and to my surprise neither of them lived in the local council ward, although it's in a pretty "blue" Parliamentary ward. We wore out our socks and boots delivering several leaflets to small villages, and I never saw the Conservative candidates nor their promotion. A week before the election we were asked if we could help win other seats in the neighbouring urban areas, then told at the last minute to stay where we were and get out and about in our own ward because it might be winnable after all, and it duly was.

Much has been said about the spectacular Tory gains of "red wall" seats on the back of Brexit but now they are haemorrhaging councils in places they used to be solidly in control.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Quite. The Tories don't seem to have much appetite for actually fighting for seats on the ground.

I think this is generally one thing that gets overlooked in elections. A friend once stood in a council by-election in which he had absolutely no chance, yet he found that people on the doors were at least willing to talk to him about politics. Little by little, he put together a street-by-street map of the area showing exactly where they could win votes, and in the next election, he specifically invested time and effort in repeatedly visiting people who they had identified as being 'possible'. The end result is that they turned a Lib Dem/Tory ward into a three way SNP/Lib Dem/Tory ward, all because he spent a lot of time and effort into building up a clear picture of the area.

I'm involved in an outright feud with the leader of my county council right now, and I've already identified that to get rid of him, I need to target four out of the 15 villages in this ward. If I can break his support there and cost him ~750 votes, he'll lose his seat. The other 11 mostly won't vote for him or will be very receptive to the reasons why they shouldn't.

IMO, one thing that Labour and the Lib Dems in England must do is pay attention to how the SNP fight elections. They need to treat every election as being of national importance, and use these next years to build up a strong presence. The Lib Dems are good at it, but Labour are very inconsistent.

 

[takno]

The idea of supporting Labour to get PR introduced is okay in theory, however in practice are Labour MPs savvy enough to see it through? The Tories have always been the Party to benefit most from the present system, but I remember leading up to the Blair days, there was hope for a PR system to be introduced. However, once Labour were in power, they suddenly thought they no longer needed PR. Then once they realised it would have benefitted them after all, they no longer had the power to introduce it.

Would they be any different another time?

To be fair electoral reform was always something that was popular with John Smith and the leadership of that time. I don't think Blair could have dealt with the possibility of coalition, and I don't recall it ever making it into one of his manifestos.

 

[nw1]

You've really got to laugh at these self-important media-types who are childishly-overactive (too much tartrazine 102 in their orange juice?) in their need to try to develop a "will Johnson now go" storyline, as they will achieve absolutely nothing by those efforts.

Still, it's good for a laugh.

I say again: Blair went in 2007. Thatcher went in 1990. In both cases the said leaders won the previous election with a good majority, particularly Thatcher in 1987.

What is so special about Johnson that raises him above Thatcher and Blair? Correct me if I am wrong, but whatever you think of them, neither Thatcher nor Blair had actually broken harsh and austere laws that they had brought in during their final terms. Thus it could be argued Johnson has a greater obligation to resign than either Thatcher or Blair.

 

[Typhoon]

Or they can do what labour & SNP MPs do when they get caught out, get kicked out of the party but remain as an independent MP staying on the gravy train.

Ie Leicester East, or the area that SNP Maggie is for.

I'm not sure that any that Starmer has kicked out have been allowed back in. There is no stronger measure that he can take. Not quite so true elsewhere - May readmitted Charlie Elphicke, the self styled 'Naughty Tory (possibly others) and, under Johnson, I gather that Rob Roberts, has been readmitted to the Conservative Party.

Dowden also owns up to some responsibility for the dreadful candidates in both by-elections, the Conservative candidate in Tiverton & Honiton acted as if she'd lost the election from the start and ran away from the media all the time, not only immediately after the results, whereas the Lib Dem candidate openly embraced the media, for example in accompanying him whilst canvassing.

She was a real disaster. It seemed like her selling point was 'I am the local candidate - full stop'. Loads of plans for the future, very little about what has been done in the last twelve years. A few photos with a select few (presumably Party members), including one in a farm where she was wearing pristine white trainers/ shoes, little or no contact with voters. If I was a voter and a candidate either couldn't be bothered with going from door to door, or uneasy about discussions with the likes of me, I wouldn't expect them to be much use in Westminster.

 

[The Ham]

A socially-conservative seat in the south, or rural seats in the Midlands, East Anglia or North, would be the obvious choices for him. The kind of seat that was thoroughly-safe Conservative even in 1997, of which there are plenty in these areas.

Of course he's a bit stuck either way as fleeing Uxbridge could lead to a ready accusation of cowardice from the opposition.

Thus I think it's unlikely he will be the Tory leader come the next election.

(sorry, just seen @Typhoon has made very similar points)

I think the next election might be different though.

Esher and Walton was won for the Conservatives with a majority of 14,528 in 1997 (plus another 2,500 if you add on the UKIP and Referendum Party). Dominic Raab had a majority of 2,743 in 2019. There are a sizable number of these seats that were very safe in 1997 and aren't now. The ones that have gone the other way may well be those where Johnson may not fit in.

For the Chicken Run to work, it really needs a seat where the incumbent is retiring (or can be encouraged off to the Lords).

My local MP (similar sized voting base) has a majority of circa 20,000, given three part election the majority in Devon was circa 24,000 I wouldn't be surprised if there were at least some concerns that such a seat could be lost when historically it would have been seen as safe (it's often joked you put a blue rosette on anything and it'll get elected).

Will it happen, probably not as elections are different to by-elections, however there's likely to be a fair few seats which are much closer where the MP would be worried.

I suspect that if we were offered Boris that the Tory vote would collapse (it's looking a bit dicy with just the MP backing Boris).

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

What is so special about Johnson that raises him above Thatcher and Blair? Correct me if I am wrong, but whatever you think of them, neither Thatcher nor Blair had actually broken harsh and austere laws that they had brought in during their final terms. Thus it could be argued Johnson has a greater obligation to resign than either Thatcher or Blair.

In the Book of Statutes, where would I find your assertion that Johnson in his capacity of Prime Minister has this stated resignation obligation? In what year did your researches find when this was entered into the written text?

 

[HST274]

In the Book of Statutes, where would I find your assertion that Johnson in his capacity of Prime Minister has this stated resignation obligation? In what year did your researches find when this was entered into the written text?

The book of morality

 

[Luke McDonnell]

Do you think that if Johnson stays as leader he will lose the next election surely that must be the case? And do you think we could end up with a Labour government or more likely Labour minority or coalition with Lib Dem support surely it should not be to difficult to dispatch the Conservatives from office with a Lib Lab pact with moderate tactical voting I cant see the Tories winning again with all that has gone with Boris surly - the best that they could hope for is a minority government or very small majority with a more competent leader maybe Jeremy Hunt or even Michael Gove? But remember they would have been in government for 14 years at the time of the next election - longer than Blair/Brown from 1997-2010 and if they won again at the next election potentially we could have the longest period of Tory rule since the early 19th century longer than Thatcher/Major presuming the next parliament goes full term so that is one reason I want to see a change.

Also if the Conservatives did win a majority at the next election does anyone think they may try to effectively ban strikes in services deemed 'essential' railways being the obvious one but maybe schools and NHS too - I don't think they would go that far but it could mean they could say that they had a mandate from the manifesto to ban or severely restrict strikes in essential services - as some mainly right wing commentators are calling for that already? I think that workers should have the right to strike though at least as a last resort

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The book of morality

Is that one of the twenty-four books of the Hebrew Tanakh?

 

[birchesgreen]

No its common decency which your hero Johnson lacks.