When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[Typhoon]

I don't want to get into this argument again on this thread (though feel free to continue on the Brexit thread) but you don't make radical changes based on the whims of 37% of people on some random day in 2016. The referendum was badly designed and should have required substantial majority. If 37% of people voted to decriminalise cocaine possession, for example, should the government blindly implement it without thinking through the consequences? But as I said this thread is not the place to discuss this controversy.

Cameron has a lot to answer for (and that does belong in this thread). I'm not suggesting that the result would have been different but for someone who resigned because of his advocacy of the EU his defence of it appeared less than fully committed during the referendum. Also, his failure to at least set civil servants the task of producing an outline plan for a 'Leave' vote was irresponsible to say the least. We might at least have had a direction of travel post the vote.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

This is how this government is unique in my lifetime, and quite possibly modern British history.

In implementing the self-defeating nonsense that is Hard Brexit, it has been the only government in my lifetime to make radical changes purely for self-interest.

But they haven't done it purely for self-interest. The point you're missing is that there are arguments for the hard Brexit that they negotiated, and a very large number of people - including many in the Government - appear to genuinely believe those arguments. Many people genuinely felt that EU regulation was hampering the UK, and that a softer Brexit would have prevented us from making changes that needed to be made in the long term (I'm being deliberately vague here about the substance of those arguments in order not to derail this thread). Of course, you may well disagree with those arguments. You may think those arguments are silly, or that they are 'obviously' outweighed by the disadvantages of Brexit. But the point I want to make is: Don't assume that, just because you don't agree with the arguments for a hard-ish Brexit, no-one else agreed with them: Plenty of other people can and do.

With respect, it seems to me that you're making the same mistake that 'progressives' keep making over and over again: Failing to understand that those on the right whom you disagree with do actually have arguments for what they are doing, which they genuinely believe in; and therefore presuming (wrongly) that their actions must be motivated by self-interest or corruption or something.

 

[najaB]

Failing to understand that those on the right whom you disagree with do actually have arguments for what they are doing, which they genuinely believe in; and therefore presuming (wrongly) that their actions must be motivated by self-interest or corruption or something.

I understand that many on the right are driven by genuine belief. However, that doesn't appear to apply to many in the top ranks of the party.

And as I keep reminding you - that is a strawman argument if no-one is proposing to remove more than the first slice.

Nobody may be planning to any more today. But tomorrow? If you don't object to the first slice being taken, do you have the right to expect to be taken seriously when it's the second, third, fourth...

And more seriously, your salami argument basically amounts to an argument that the Government should never do anything at all: Because pretty much anything that any Government might do, could, theoretically become heinously bad if you extrapolated it to ridiculous levels..

No, my argument is that we should *always* eye what the Government is doing with suspicion. Failing to do so - just accepting that they have our best interests in mind - is how you end up sleepwalking into disaster. More dictators are elected than seize power with a gun.

 

[Strathclyder]

No, my argument is that we should *always* eye what the Government is doing with suspicion. Failing to do so - just accepting that they have our best interests in mind - is how you end up sleepwalking into disaster. More dictators are elected than seize power with a gun.

Turkey's Erdoğan being just one example of this.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Looking at the "Johnson" part of the title of this thread, I am reminded that it now looks like both Jesus and Johnson could say "I am with you always".

Turkey's Erdoğan ......

Sounds something like a meal course in an exotic restaurant.

 

[Busaholic]

As of 4 a.m. today, at long last, the end really is nigh for Boris Johnson, and probably the Conservative Party at the next General Election.

 

[najaB]

As of 4 a.m. today, at long last, the end really is nigh for Boris Johnson, and probably the Conservative Party at the next General Election.

I really don't see how he can hang on.

That said, the longer he does, the worse it is for the Tories.

 

[Busaholic]

I really don't see how he can hang on.

That said, the longer he does, the worse it is for the Tories.

It was certainly a shame the MPs' vote on his future came a little too early.

 

[Gloster]

The trouble is that he is likely to be determined to stay: another six weeks and he passes May’s tenure. Theoretically, the recent vote means he shouldn’t have to face another challenge for a year, but in a year everything might have gone off the boil or changed to a background situation where he can try the ‘rally round the leader’ ploy. If they try to change the rules now, could they find that a number of otherwise critical MPs will support him on the basis that they have had a vote and so must stick to it.

 

[nlogax]

As of 4 a.m. today, at long last, the end really is nigh for Boris Johnson, and probably the Conservative Party at the next General Election.

Is it though?

By-elections are one thing but Johnson won't call a GE because of this and the 1922 Committee haven't made anything beyond idle threats about changing VoNC rules. Meanwhile it's fair to say Keir Starmer isn't exactly wowing or wooing new Labour voters.

Boris Johnson remains a long term problem for this country. He may be a determined liar, a fool and a dreadful human being but he's also made of political teflon.

 

[Snow1964]

As of 4 a.m. today, at long last, the end really is nigh for Boris Johnson, and probably the Conservative Party at the next General Election.

And now the Conservative Party Chairman, Oliver Dowden has now sent letter of resignation to prime minister.

 

[daodao]

As of 4 a.m. today, at long last, the end really is nigh for Boris Johnson, and probably the Conservative Party at the next General Election.

Don't count one's chickens before they are hatched.

I doubt that the Lie Dems will win more than 25 seats at the next general election, and they are unlikely to retain Tiverton and Honiton.

 

[birchesgreen]

Agreed he isn't finished, yet. It is squeaky bum time for half of his back benchers though.

 

[Acfb]

As a Labour member I actually think the Wakefield result is a bit of a damp squib result for Labour as they didn't even get 50% and the Labour vote share is actually 1.8% lower than in 2017. Still a wins a win and the Tories couldn't have realistically gone much below 30% there I suppose.


Tiverton and Honiton was exactly as I predicted although an even bigger squeeze OM the Lab and Green votes.

I expect Johnson to still limp on at least another few months.

Don't count one's chickens before they are hatched.

I doubt that the Lie Dems will win more than 25 seats at the next general election, and they are unlikely to retain Tiverton and Honiton.

Lib Dems have no chance of holding North Shropshire or Tiverton and Honiton at the next election however it's still good for LD morale in the Southwest and will boost LD chances of winning back constituencies in Somerset next door such as Taunton and there is still a potential by election in Somerton and Frome which would be another LD gain if it does happen.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I really don't see how he can hang on.

That said, the longer he does, the worse it is for the Tories.

Drawing comparisons, if the Labour Party were in power and had lost a couple of by-elections but still had the same size of an overall majority as currently held by the Conservative Party, in the mid-point of elected term, would they be ready to give up power?

 

[Cloud Strife]

Agreed he isn't finished, yet. It is squeaky bum time for half of his back benchers though.

What has to concern the Tories is that we've seen a declaration of intent from Labour and Lib Dem voters in England: they will vote for the candidate most likely to win. This was already happening in Scotland against the SNP, and it is a very effective electoral tactic in FPTP elections.

I expect Johnson to still limp on at least another few months.

I think he's going to stick it out until the end. He enjoys being the PM, and he doesn't care about actually winning next time.

 

[deltic]

He has still got a large parliamentary majority and there is no-one of any stature who is prepared to knife him in the back although it was interesting that Oliver Dowdon has resigned

 

[Typhoon]

I expect Johnson to still limp on at least another few months.

He's only got four weeks until the Summer Recess. And he is off to Rwanda (Commonwealth Heads of State) for the next week. They really need some 'rally round the flag' (or, at least, around Big Dog) legislation to boost the mood of the troops - the threatened legislation to allow agency staff to cover for striking workers would help but there probably isn't time. Once he hits the recess, the pressure is off.

As a Labour member I actually think the Wakefield result is a bit of a damp squib result for Labour as they didn't even get 50% and the Labour vote share is actually 1.8% lower than in 2017. Still a wins a win and the Tories couldn't have realistically gone much below 30% there I suppose.

Tiverton and Honiton was exactly as I predicted although it looks like less direct switching from Con -LD than Chesham and and Amersham and North Shropshire and just lots of Tories staying at home.

In Wakefield the LibDem vote was even less significant than in 2019; in Tiverton and Honiton the Labour vote collapsed (although they were second in 2019). The electorate were certain who they didn't want - and set out to achieve that; they were less certain of who they did. Added to that a decent performance by the independent in Wakefield.

He has still got a large parliamentary majority and there is no-one of any stature who is prepared to knife him in the back although it was interesting that Oliver Dowdon has resigned

Interesting words in Dowden's resignation letter:

Somebody must take responsibility ...

He must have known who wouldn't. I wonder if the letter was already written?

Edit: Central Office need to ensure all MPs get a regular health check, their mobile phones are checked weekly, and they wear a tracker. No (Conservative) by-elections before the end of the year will do them a world of good.

 

[Snow1964]

Lib Dems have no chance of holding North Shropshire or Tiverton and Honiton at the next election however it's still good for LD morale in the Southwest and will boost LD chances of winning back constituencies in Somerset next door such as Taunton and there is still a potential by election in Somerton and Frome which would be another LD gain if it does happen.

Many of these constituencies in SW are due to change under boundary commission as they are too big (has to be within +/- 5% of electorate divided by seats) so is a new maximum of just over 77,000

Tiverton & Honiton is getting split (Tiverton & Minehead area, and SE Devon. Frome is joining South Bath (and Bath is already Lib Dem). The new Somerset unitary authority is mainly Lib Dem, so they are getting popular support in parts of SW. Labour is tiny in rural SW (and Southern) England, so if Conservatives self destruct, Lib Dems could sweep up lots of seats

So it depends on if the new constituencies get enacted before a 2024 election. But is fairly clear the country could get lot of regional tactical voting where third party is seen as a wasted vote, so votes get allocated to not first choice

 

[HST274]

He's only got four weeks until the Summer Recess. And he is off to Rwanda (Commonwealth Heads of State) for the next week. They really need some 'rally round the flag' (or, at least, around Big Dog) legislation to boost the mood of the troops - the threatened legislation to allow agency staff to cover for striking workers would help but there probably isn't time. Once he hits the recess, the pressure is off.


In Wakefield the LibDem vote was even less significant than in 2019; in Tiverton and Honiton the Labour vote collapsed (although they were second in 2019). The electorate were certain who they didn't want - and set out to achieve that; they were less certain of who they did. Added to that a decent performance by the independent in Wakefield.


Interesting words in Dowden's resignation letter: He must have known who wouldn't. I wonder if the letter was already written?

You are correct about the lib dem and Labour votes being bad, but I saw not one jot of campaigning by either side for the opposite seat. They both knew beforehand the best way to win both seats was to only campaign in one each.

 

[JonathanH]

This strategy might come at a significant personal cost to Johnson if it results in him losing Uxbridge.

If you believe the Evening Standard that seems quite likely.

If Johnson has no chance of retaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip, which seems likely, it is interesting to think whether there is another safe seat he could go to and whether there is actually anywhere safe enough for him that he could go to.

If there is going to be a change of government at the next election is there actually a point of him potentially suffering the indignation of being a party leader losing their seat at a general election?

I assume he wouldn't be advised to go anywhere in the South East where the Liberal Democrats are in second place.

You are correct about the lib dem and Labour votes being bad, but I saw not one jot of campaigning by either side for the opposite seat. They both knew beforehand the best way to win both seats was to only campaign in one each.

That, of course, is what both parties need to do for the next election. It will be interesting to see whether things develop towards the Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green Parties effectively stepping aside for each other by the time of the General Election. If the Conservatives get more and more unpopular (eg as in 1997) there might be enough groundswell in the country that for the country to actually welcome a straight race between the Conservatives and one alternative party in each seat.

 

[deltic]

That, of course, is what both parties need to do for the next election. It will be interesting to see whether things develop towards the Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green Parties effectively stepping aside for each other by the time of the General Election. If the Conservatives get more and more unpopular (eg as in 1997) there might be enough groundswell in the country that for the country to actually welcome a straight race between the Conservatives and one alternative party in each seat.

There will be no formal arrangements but as with all parties they will only use their resources in the seats they can win, general elections are won and lost on the basis of 50 or so key seats changing sides. That's why most people complain they see no campaigning in their seat during an election.

 

[kristiang85]

It was certainly a shame the MPs' vote on his future came a little too early.

Yes, at the time I thought it was rather bizarre timing given they would probably have more ammo after these results.

Maybe polling at the time indicated better?

 

[nw1]

Drawing comparisons, if the Labour Party were in power and had lost a couple of by-elections but still had the same size of an overall majority as currently held by the Conservative Party, in the mid-point of elected term, would they be ready to give up power?

If the Labour PM had imposed harsh restrictions on the population and blatantly broken those restrictions himself, and then lost a byelection to the Tories in somewhere like Islington or central Manchester as a likely direct result of this, then I would agree that, if (s)he cared about the party's success next time, said Labour PM should resign, yes.

Tony Blair resigned in 2007 under considerably less controversial circumstances than Johnson, presumably because he was by then seen as a liability in the next election due to controversies relating to the Iraq war. If Blair, why not Johnson?

 

[Typhoon]

If Johnson has no chance of retaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip, which seems likely, it is interesting to think whether there is another safe seat he could go to and whether there is actually anywhere safe enough for him that he could go to.
I assume he wouldn't be advised to go anywhere in the South East where the Liberal Democrats are in second place.

If he is thought to be vulnerable, Labour would flood the seat to try to take a big scalp, LibDems would offer token campaigning because, even if the Conservatives remained the largest party they would be deemed to have lost, simply because they had lost their leader.
If he tries to go to another seat, he will be accused of cutting and running, it won't look good. There is then the question of which constituency would take him. He is not a traditional Tory so many party members may not be exactly keen - to what extent would they want to campaign for him, particularly if it means a popular MP stands down. He doesn't have roots in any particular part of the country (except London). Two constituencies with majorities over 20,000 there are Hornchurch and Upminster, and Orpington (interestingly, formerly held by a Johnson, and once the scene of a famous by-election victory). Anything less would be risky.

Personally, I think Mrs J would have a word and suggest he would want to spend more time with his growing family and the 'after dinner' circuit. And, in relation to the former, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't hear an announcement from No. 10 within the next few months; anything to get on the front covers for positive reasons.

Yes, at the time I thought it was rather bizarre timing given they would probably have more ammo after these results.

Maybe polling at the time indicated better?

Maybe some pro Johnson MPs put letters in to get it over the line so the vote happened before the by-elections?

 

[nw1]

If Johnson has no chance of retaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip, which seems likely, it is interesting to think whether there is another safe seat he could go to and whether there is actually anywhere safe enough for him that he could go to.

If there is going to be a change of government at the next election is there actually a point of him potentially suffering the indignation of being a party leader losing their seat at a general election?

I assume he wouldn't be advised to go anywhere in the South East where the Liberal Democrats are in second place.

A socially-conservative seat in the south, or rural seats in the Midlands, East Anglia or North, would be the obvious choices for him. The kind of seat that was thoroughly-safe Conservative even in 1997, of which there are plenty in these areas.

Of course he's a bit stuck either way as fleeing Uxbridge could lead to a ready accusation of cowardice from the opposition.

Thus I think it's unlikely he will be the Tory leader come the next election.

(sorry, just seen @Typhoon has made very similar points)

 

[jfollows]

So it depends on if the new constituencies get enacted before a 2024 election. But is fairly clear the country could get lot of regional tactical voting where third party is seen as a wasted vote, so votes get allocated to not first choice

I believe this is likely to happen, not least because the Conservatives control the parliamentary timetable and look to be significant beneficiaries from the changes.

 

[JonathanH]

The kind of seat that was thoroughly-safe Conservative even in 1997, of which there are plenty in these areas.

I think the next election might be different though.

Esher and Walton was won for the Conservatives with a majority of 14,528 in 1997 (plus another 2,500 if you add on the UKIP and Referendum Party). Dominic Raab had a majority of 2,743 in 2019. There are a sizable number of these seats that were very safe in 1997 and aren't now. The ones that have gone the other way may well be those where Johnson may not fit in.

For the Chicken Run to work, it really needs a seat where the incumbent is retiring (or can be encouraged off to the Lords).

 

[nw1]

I think the next election might be different though.

Esher and Walton was won for the Conservatives with a majority of 14,528 in 1997 (plus another 2,500 if you add on the UKIP and Referendum Party). Dominic Raab had a majority of 2,743 in 2019. There are a sizable number of these seats that were very safe in 1997 and aren't now. The ones that have gone the other way may well be those where Johnson may not fit in.

For the Chicken Run to work, it really needs a seat where the incumbent is retiring (or can be encouraged off to the Lords).

True, and admittedly I wasn't thinking so much of somewhere like Esher, but somewhere further out and more distant from London (and thus, likely more small-c conservative). Agree that a vacant seat would be needed though.

Interesting that Orpington, which on the face of it seems similar to Esher (similar distance from central London, on a main railway line) has such a whopping majority even now. The personal unpopularity of Raab amongst many could partly explain this, but I suspect it's not the whole story; the Bromley area of London does seem to be disproportionately pre-disposed to the Conservatives compared to other areas which on the face of it look superficially similar.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Thus I think it's unlikely he will be the Tory leader come the next election.

If he is still Tory leader at the next election, Labour and the LibDems will have an absolute field day quoting back all the 'unfit to be PM'-type remarks that Conservative MPs were making and writing during the lead-up to the no-confidence vote.