When will restrictions finally end?

[C J Snarzell]

I agree here, not just because of the political and economic consequences here, but I also think by the 16-23rd March 2021, a year on from when restrictions started being applied, at the very least the impression that we're in a better place than a year before needs to exist, so many restrictions will need to be gone, and in particular further relaxations need to be at least known about, even if they don't take effect for another 2 weeks (by Easter).

Another thing that might drive relaxation sooner rather than later is the behaviour of the CRG and other Tory backbenchers: they probably won't like the Brexit deal organised, but even if they did that's now out of the way and means Covid is the focus, where if there's no sign of ending this soon they'll either pressure Johnson into easing and/or depose him and ensure a replacement eases restrictions pronto. Furthermore I get the impression those running the response would also like this to be over and done with, simply because it's visibly draining them. We've seen Hancock do that Woody-style slump in the Commons, and Vallance and Whitty have also appeared somewhat drained in press briefings since late October; Hancock might have said he hopes normality will be back by 2022, but I don't see him being in post anywhere near the end of 2021, whether through getting the boot or resigning because he's had enough (he might not put it that way).

Matt Hancock's 'Toy Story' flop in the Commons is evidence he's in burnout mode and he will at some stage need indefinate leave from office to recover which will bring to an end his time as Health Secretary. I suspect he'll be gone by the summer of next year, if not earlier.

I suspect some reshuffling in the cabinet next year too - Priti Patel is another who I suspect will go as she has done nothing to instill confidence in the police service while she has been Home Secretary. The bullying allegations and more recently the Twitter comment that halted the human trafficing trial are more ammunition that she needs to go.

Boris Johnson himself needs to make a sharp exit but I'm undecided if he will step down next year or 2022.

CJ

 

[philosopher]

I still expect we’ll retain elements of social distancing beyond then, but at the very least I will expect to return to normal life. As for wretched masks, I wouldn’t be surprised if by then there’s been some study or other which says masks are actually making things worse, it certainly feels like that.

Prior to this year, those wearing masks were often treated with suspicion as typically criminals were the only ones to cover their faces in public.

To the average person, once they have been vaccinated the risk of Covid to them will have largely gone. However the risk from crime will remain. Therefore others covering their faces will shift from making them feel safer to making them feel more uncomfortable. I think it will only take a few well publicised crimes where the criminals could not be identified because they were wearing masks for their to be significant shift in public opinion against wearing masks.

For this reason I think by this time next year and definitely by mid 2022, the wearing of masks will be uncommon in the UK.

 

[Tracked]

For this reason I think by this time next year and definitely by mid 2022, the wearing of masks will be uncommon in the UK.

I've found them quite useful for keeping my mouth warm when I've been out walking a couple of times recently, a lot easier than faffing round with a scarf!

I don't expect there to be much movement during January and February and I'm not sure if we'll get another National lockdown during this time unless something goes seriously wrong; partly because the rollout of vaccines has started, but mainly because of Lockdown fatigue.

Would a gradual easing beginning from March be likely; it'd probably be against scientific advice and might even cause a rise in cases in the short term, but the government would be coming under more pressure as we approach a year of restrictions.

 

[chris11256]

I’d put my money on spring, with significant easing by or over Easter. With social distancing largely gone, mask’s optional & schools no longer having to ‘bubble’ year groups.

it’s interesting because as the months progresses the argument will slowly change. Currently it’s a simple matter of more cases equals
more deaths. Once those 15 million are vaccinated then that argument doesn’t stand up. deaths will simply fall dramatically and cases largely won’t matter any more. Hopefully we get to the point where the government stop publishing new case.

I can see international travel taking a while to kick back off though with countries being nervous and twitchy about letting tourists in. Hopefully that will just be a case of having negative test within a couple of days of flying.

 

[bramling]

Some newspapers are reporting this morning that the government has identified a group of between 12 - 15 million people who are most likely to require hospitalisation if they contract COVID-19. When this group of people have been vaccinated, or even when the vast majority of this group have been vaccinated, the NHS would then no longer be at risk of being overwhelmed if the virus spread through the general population. This can be the starting point for easing of restrictions.

There is a lot of speculation about when this point might be, but most estimates are sometime between mid February and mid March.

The government is also looking into the possibility of accelerating the vaccination program by giving a single dose to more people, rather than a double dose to fewer people. The theory is that having a slightly lower level of protection to a greater number of people is of greater overall benefit, and will means that restrictions can start to be eased sooner than later.

I don't think anyone is expecting all restrictions to be removed by Easter. But I would have thought that the hospitality sector would be be open by then, albeit with limits on numbers and track and trace etc. And fans will no doubt also be allowed back into sports stadiums, again maybe with some temporary restrictions on capacity.

It will be interesting to see how some people react when they find there’s going to be no vaccine for them in the short and probably medium term.

 

[Class 317]

I see restrictions easing only in April. The reason being that 2 doses of each vaccine are required to give high protection to the vulnerable 15 million. The single dose of the Biotech N vaccine offers only 52% protection.

Assuming the Oxford vaccine is approved in the next week or 2 and given that some time will be needed to ramp up the vaccination effort its likely to take 15 -18 weeks or so to get 2 doses to the 15m even if the 2m doses a week rate is achieved quickly. I,m more confident this can happen as the NHS are organising this using their experience of the flu vaccine not some 3rd party like Serco.

Once they have protected this group, I think a cautious approach to easing restrictions will probably be taken with restrictions being progressively reduced over the following couple of months but some remaining for the medium term like WFH, track and trace and testing of international arrivals likely to remain for a while.

It's going to be important to monitor the effect of the vaccine, the changing virus as it mutates and the effect this has on immunity levels to ensure its kept in check into the future.

 

[Hadders]

I hope we'll see some significant easing of restrictions after Easter but unless we're totally restriction free by August then I really don't see any further easing before Easter 2022.

 

[Huntergreed]

As I suspected (and feared), some people are still not happy about moving back to normal after the only the vulnerable have been vaccinated, as it is “unsafe”. Some Facebook comments from this morning:

I have been inside since March, and the next time I leave my home will be to get my vaccine. I REFUSE to put my life at risk to “save the economy” and fill BoJo’s pocket. This virus has killed millions worldwide, millions of healthy, real people who are no longer alive due to the government prioritising their own pocket. We need a 6 month lockdown to eliminate the virus globally, no leaving home apart from emergency services and medical appointments. Schools and universities closed. No point getting an education if you won’t live long enough to use it

The COVID vaccine is only getting to the elderly. This is disgraceful. Young people have DIED from this, and I will NOT be going back to normal. We need to lockdown, mandatory masks everywhere, and police doing door to door checks

To everyone who thinks we should go back to normal once the vaccine has been rolled out, think about this. People of ALL ages have died from this. What about long COVID, it’s horrible, and young people can get it. We need a lockdown, the only way to do this is worldwide eradication, and we need army and police enforcing a STRICT lockdown (stay indoors or else) for at least a year

And a personal favourite of mine

The jab is a sham. They’re just giving it so that you think ur safe but the covirus kills everyone. We need to lock it up, tell the virus to go packing, then mandatory masks become permanent to drive down flu. NHS needs help, and we should give it

 

[philosopher]

Here are my predictions for England. These predictions assume their no hiccups with the vaccination program

January: Tier 4 nationwide, except possibly for the Isles of Scilly, so Boris can claim it is not a nationwide lockdown.

February: Back to tiers 1 to 3. Majority of the country is in tier 3, though a few places will be in tier 2.

March: Most of the country continues to move down the tiers, by the end of month most of the country is in tier 1.

April: By the end of the month everywhere is in tier 1.

May to October: Tier 0 restrictions are introduced which increases the size of gatherings to between 10 and 15, allows up to 8000 to attend outdoor events and the advice to work to home is removed, instead offices are allowed to operate at 50% of capacity. Table service in pubs remain, however the early closing is removed. Nightclubs remain closed.

November: All remaining restrictions are removed. I suspect restrictions will continue well into the autumn to see what happens when the schools go back in September.

 

[yorksrob]

Really, April's too late to persist with tier 4 level lockdown, so they'll have to start easing something way before then.

Maybe moving everywhere back into something into something like tier 2 once vaccination of the 15 million is well on its way, (with additional support and advice given to the remainder of the 15 million who are still to be done). I would certainly expect hospitality to be open by the time this is completed, hopefully in a socially distanced way before.

Things such as track and trace and testing of arrivals from abroad will have to remain for much longer, in order to check against more mutant strains occurring.

 

[bramling]

As I suspected (and feared), some people are still not happy about moving back to normal after the only the vulnerable have been vaccinated, as it is “unsafe”. Some Facebook comments from this morning:







And a personal favourite of mine

The first one in particular grates. If everyone decided to wall themselves up indoors until a vaccine, then there would be no vaccine!

 

[Huntergreed]

Another point, will the media keep pushing for restrictions when the vaccine is rolled out? Those vulnerable will be vaccinated, but when restrictions ease, cases rise. I can see the headlines “HIGHEST DAILY CASES YET AS YOUNGER POPULATION STILL NOT VACCINATED AGAINST DEADLY CORONAVIRUS”

 

[yorksrob]

As I suspected (and feared), some people are still not happy about moving back to normal after the only the vulnerable have been vaccinated, as it is “unsafe”. Some Facebook comments from this morning:







And a personal favourite of mine

If they're of independant means, let them stay at home if they so wish.

If they're not, I suspect an end of furlough payments will force their hand.

 

[bramling]

Another point, will the media keep pushing for restrictions when the vaccine is rolled out? Those vulnerable will be vaccinated, but when restrictions ease, cases rise. I can see the headlines “HIGHEST DAILY CASES YET AS YOUNGER POPULATION STILL NOT VACCINATED AGAINST DEADLY CORONAVIRUS”

This is going to be a difficult one to square up for sure, especially with the “long Covid” narrative having been pushed.

It will all contribute to the feeling that young and middle-aged people have been well and truly thrown under the bus with this, and to be honest who can argue with that feeling as it’s largely accurate unfortunately.

If they're of independant means, let them stay at home if they so wish.

If they're not, I suspect an end of furlough payments will force their hand.

Since it’s too dangerous for anyone to leave the house, how about stop their food deliveries too? That might concentrate the mind too. But of course it’s okay for others to leave the house in order to deliver their food?!

 

[yorksrob]

Since it’s too dangerous for anyone to leave the house, how about stop their food deliveries too? That might concentrate the mind too. But of course it’s okay for others to leave the house in order to deliver their food?!

Ooh, that would be mischievous !

 

[bramling]

Ooh, that would be mischievous !

Being (half) serious, it’s only a fair extension of their own logic.

 

[duncanp]

As I suspected (and feared), some people are still not happy about moving back to normal after the only the vulnerable have been vaccinated, as it is “unsafe”. Some Facebook comments from this morning:







And a personal favourite of mine

Those Facebook comments are a joke:-

• If it was feasible to eliminate the virus globally by instituting a 6 month lockdown, it would have happened by now.
• It is not Boris Johnson's pocket your are lining by going out and spending money. It is the pocket of all those businesses whose taxes go to pay for the NHS. If we want to have an NHS in the future, we need a functioning economy to pay for it.
• Whilst some young people have died from COVID-19, the vast majority haven't. The police don't have the resources to do door to door checks for more than a small percentage of the population.
• A year long strict lockdown would do so much damage to the economy and people's mental health that the cue would become worse than the disease.

But you can't argue with Karen from Facebook and Mandy from Mumsnet

Here are my predictions for England. These predictions assume their no hiccups with the vaccination program

January: Tier 4 nationwide, except possibly for the Isles of Scilly, so Boris can claim it is not a nationwide lockdown.

February: Back to tiers 1 to 3. Majority of the country is in tier 3, though a few places will be in tier 2.

March: Most of the country continues to move down the tiers, by the end of month most of the country is in tier 1.

April: By the end of the month everywhere is in tier 1.

May to October: Tier 0 restrictions are introduced which increases the size of gatherings to between 10 and 15, allows up to 8000 to attend outdoor events and the advice to work to home is removed, instead offices are allowed to operate at 50% of capacity. Table service in pubs remain, however the early closing is removed. Nightclubs remain closed.

November: All remaining restrictions are removed. I suspect restrictions will continue well into the autumn to see what happens when the schools go back in September.

I think those predictions are reasonably in line with what I would expect.

At the end of January, the tier system has to be renewed in parliament, and if the whole country is still in tier 4, MPs will have had so much earache from their constituents that they will want an exit strategy before authorising the continuation of the tiers. You may find that, as well as everywhere moving down a tier, the restrictions within each tier are eased, so that, for example, wet pubs in tier 2 are allowed to open, as happened in October.

The budget is on March 3rd, when we will finally hear about the economic impact of COVID-19 (largely supressed so far) and about the increased taxes we are all going to have to pay. I cannot see that people will tolerate increased taxes without some hope that the situation will ease.

 

[bramling]

Those Facebook comments are a joke:-

• If it was feasible to eliminate the virus globally by instituting a 6 month lockdown, it would have happened by now.
• It is not Boris Johnson's pocket your are lining by going out and spending money. It is the pocket of all those businesses whose taxes go to pay for the NHS. If we want to have an NHS in the future, we need a functioning economy to pay for it.
• Whilst some young people have died from COVID-19, the vast majority haven't. The police don't have the resources to do door to door checks for more than a small percentage of the population.
• A year long strict lockdown would do so much damage to the economy and people's mental health that the cue would become worse than the disease.

But you can't argue with Karen from Facebook and Mandy from Mumsnet

I think those predictions are reasonably in line with what I would expect.

At the end of January, the tier system has to be renewed in parliament, and if the whole country is still in tier 4, MPs will have had so much earache from their constituents that they will want an exit strategy before authorising the continuation of the tiers. You may find that, as well as everywhere moving down a tier, the restrictions within each tier are eased, so that, for example, wet pubs in tier 2 are allowed to open, as happened in October.

The budget is on March 3rd, when we will finally hear about the economic impact of COVID-19 (largely supressed so far) and about the increased taxes we are all going to have to pay. I cannot see that people will tolerate increased taxes without some hope that the situation will ease.

I’m dreading the budget. Despite the fact that Sunak seems to be of the opinion that he can’t do too much this time in order to avoid further shocking the economy, I still think there’s going to be plenty of nasties in it.

 

[jtuk]

With over 500,000 now vaccinated (almost 1% of the population), we are slowly but surely on the path back to normality at this stage. As we vaccinate the elderly, more vulnerable groups, death rates will fall significantly and the risk of allowing the virus to spread will become much less serious (and the NHS will be at a much lower risk of being overwhelmed).

It won't be though - as for there to be a "much lower risk" there needs to be more than a negligible risk in the first place, which there isn't. In the incredibly unlikely event that there is a four to five sigma negative event, they could always try to find that Nightingale at the Excel that they've managed to lose.

Restrictions will continue for as long as Johnson, Hancock, Whitty and Vallance want to avoid being found criminally liable for damage to the country. How long you think that'll be is debatable.

 

[samxool]

One thing I fear could ruin a lot of your predictions of most restrictions removed by April, is you remove restrictions, there will be spikes in cases. Potentially huge spikes.
Plus I'm in my late thirties with no known health issues. I don't expect to be vaccinated until September. But what if by then, there are signs that the vulnerable who received the vaccine in Dec/Jan are losing their immunity?

My age group may not get vaccinated as they need to re vaccinate the vulnerable again instead.
That could mean this coronavirus able to still keep surging.
I fear the immunity of the vaccine will not be as long lasting as a lot of you seem to be assuming.

 

[brad465]

It won't be though - as for there to be a "much lower risk" there needs to be more than a negligible risk in the first place, which there isn't. In the incredibly unlikely event that there is a four to five sigma negative event, they could always try to find that Nightingale at the Excel that they've managed to lose.

Restrictions will continue for as long as Johnson, Hancock, Whitty and Vallance want to avoid being found criminally liable for damage to the country. How long you think that'll be is debatable.

In the case of the first 2 it will be when the backbenchers have had enough, and criticism has been growing slowly but surely, whereby Easter it could be very pressing if large numbers of vaccinated vulnerable people and further economic damage emerge. However as I alluded to in an earlier post, fatigue might finish them off before long. I don't know how the latter 2 could leave post, but if the first 2 go demands of a new leader will probably be not to listen to them so much.

With an inevitable public inquiry, I do wonder what the odds of those running it being found guilty/liable for all this economic and other health condition damage actually is. As much I believe it should be investigated, my gut feeling is the focus will be on the concept that everything was done late and half-hearted, not that they were the wrong measures in the first place.

 

[hwl]

Some newspapers are reporting this morning that the government has identified a group of between 12 - 15 million people who are most likely to require hospitalisation if they contract COVID-19. When this group of people have been vaccinated, or even when the vast majority of this group have been vaccinated, the NHS would then no longer be at risk of being overwhelmed if the virus spread through the general population. This can be the starting point for easing of restrictions.

There is a lot of speculation about when this point might be, but most estimates are sometime between mid February and mid March.

The government is also looking into the possibility of accelerating the vaccination program by giving a single dose to more people, rather than a double dose to fewer people. The theory is that having a slightly lower level of protection to a greater number of people is of greater overall benefit, and will means that restrictions can start to be eased sooner than later.

I don't think anyone is expecting all restrictions to be removed by Easter. But I would have thought that the hospitality sector would be be open by then, albeit with limits on numbers and track and trace etc. And fans will no doubt also be allowed back into sports stadiums, again maybe with some temporary restrictions on capacity.

A slight failure of the right wing press to engage brains or be able to do the maths. The problem is that the best vaccines are 95% effective there is still the 5% who aren't protected post vaccination and that is still a very large number of actual people at potential far greater risk of hospitalisation. At the moment we have no data on how vaccination reduces transmission which will be key in determining required vaccination rates in the wider population (i.e. lower risk groups) to keep the overall case and transmission rates low so that 5% doesn't translate to large hospitalisation numbers when other restrictions are lifted. The new variant and higher transmissibility has meant that this is more important

There are lots of time lags involved: Maximum vaccine effectiveness is two weeks post second dose for Pfizer or Oxford/AZ and hospitalisations/deaths lag transmission and infection by weeks.

No one like restrictions but lots of people are being very unrealistic with themselves and always looking at the most optimistic (unrealistic) outcomes.

Maximum economic recovery in H2 2021 and beyond need maximum vaccination effectiveness and not an untested bodged single dose plan because restrictions could start to be eased 2 weeks earlier on average.

NHS recovery will be very reliant on hammering down case rates not just the minimum to avoid being overwhelmed (what the press are currently looking at). This isn't just about looking at the next step but what lies beyond that.

The warmer weather from April onwards will also help but the cold weather in the mean time won't.

I wouldn't expect to see a bonfire of restrictions but a cautious tapering down as the situation shows noticeable improvement from March onwards.

 

[Class 33]

Well when I saw the front page of this morning's The Daily Mail late last night which read that restrictions can be eased once 15 million people had been vaccinated, I initially thought "What the.....???!! That's going to take absolute months yet!". But then I went on to read that Britain could be free of these tight restrictions by mid February. And also read somewhere that they're going to ramp up vaccinations to 2 million per week. Sounds very encouraging news. But still seems to good to be true that ALL these hassly, nuisance and restrictive restrictions we've had to put up with all these months will all be finally gone in just 2 months time. My prediction is it may end up taking just a little longer than that.

It's a darn nuisance that despite the vaccinations started nearly 4 weeks ago now, that unfortunately we're still not seeing the effects of this in the cases/hospitalisations/numbers in hospital/deaths statistics. Cases are still going up(though one of the reasons for this is the volumes of daily testing has been ramped up! Which the media don't seem to understand!) significantly, and hospitalisations and deaths still rising though to a far lesser extent. I think that mid to late January though, we should finally start to see these hospitalisations and deaths absolutely tumbling down.

In the meantime though it looks like January will be another very bad month for lockdowns and restrictions. There is speculation(thanks to the press and media fueling things unfortunately) that there could either be yet another full national lockdown next month(or even starting before the end of this month) lasting either 3 or 4 weeks, or much more or even all areas of the country being upgraded to Tier 4. Neither of which is justified in my opinion. But chances are it could well happen.

Johnson said the Tiers system has a "sunset" of February 3rd. And there will be a vote in parliament on 27th January as to whether they should continue until the end of March. With a bit of luck by then, hospitalisations and deaths should hopefully really be tumbling down by then. And that enough MP's will have enough sense that we really don't need the Tiered lockdown system anymore and vote against it, and come 3rd February the Tiered system will then be completely gone. It's going to be a very close vote though I think, unlike recent parliament votes for these lockdowns/restrictions when the votes in favour of them have won by a huge amount.

Whatever happens with that parliament vote on 27th January though, they'll probably still keep this social distancing and face mask wearing nonsense for a bit longer. But if the government have any sense, they must surely finally scrap these restrictions at the end of March along with the Tiered system(if that still continue beyond 3rd February) so that we can all finally start to get on with our lives as normal after putting up with all these blasted restrictions for 13 and a half months and has put our lives on hold. Social distancing and face mask wearing is not a return a normal life! And for many many businesses especially in the hospitality and leisure sector, social distancing restrictions are severely effecting their income. Many businesses are only just about breaking even because of social distancing! These businesses need to be able to get back to normal. Though a number of them have sadly gone under all ready because of all this dragging on for months on end.

The culture secretary Oliver Dowden said recently in a keynote speech that he expects the events industry to be back to normal by Easter. We hope he is right on that and doesn't let us down on that, so that music concerts and festivals can return from April onwards. Social distancing and festivals just don't mix. As well as being a darn nuisance to festival goers having to keep being at least 2 metres away from other people, it's just completely financially unviable for festivals to operate with social distancing restrictions! They'd have to limit their capacities/tickets sold to only a fraction to what they'd normally have. Just not financially viable is it!

One person on here saying that social distancing and face mask wearing requirements will still continue into 2022. Ridiculous! The people and businesses of this country won't be able to put up with this for at least another year!

So am hoping that just over 3 months to go now and life should be back to normal again!

 

[bramling]

One thing I fear could ruin a lot of your predictions of most restrictions removed by April, is you remove restrictions, there will be spikes in cases. Potentially huge spikes.
Plus I'm in my late thirties with no known health issues. I don't expect to be vaccinated until September. But what if by then, there are signs that the vulnerable who received the vaccine in Dec/Jan are losing their immunity?

My age group may not get vaccinated as they need to re vaccinate the vulnerable again instead.
That could mean this coronavirus able to still keep surging.
I fear the immunity of the vaccine will not be as long lasting as a lot of you seem to be assuming.

To be fair, I think most people on here have been pretty realistic about vaccines, which indeed seems to contribute to the view that we essentially need to learn to live with this - a view which I for one have become increasingly persuaded by over time.

You may well be right though, as how this all plays out with the wider population doesn't bode well.

 

[yorksrob]

One thing I fear could ruin a lot of your predictions of most restrictions removed by April, is you remove restrictions, there will be spikes in cases. Potentially huge spikes.
Plus I'm in my late thirties with no known health issues. I don't expect to be vaccinated until September. But what if by then, there are signs that the vulnerable who received the vaccine in Dec/Jan are losing their immunity?

My age group may not get vaccinated as they need to re vaccinate the vulnerable again instead.
That could mean this coronavirus able to still keep surging.
I fear the immunity of the vaccine will not be as long lasting as a lot of you seem to be assuming.

So how long are you planning to stay locked up then ?

At the very least, we will need to open up in a socially distanced way, as happenned in June.

 

[yorkie]

Some newspapers are reporting this morning that the government has identified a group of between 12 - 15 million people who are most likely to require hospitalisation if they contract COVID-19. When this group of people have been vaccinated, or even when the vast majority of this group have been vaccinated, the NHS would then no longer be at risk of being overwhelmed if the virus spread through the general population. This can be the starting point for easing of restrictions.

I think the starting point needs to be once over 75s are vaccinated, but of course it will be a gradual thing over time, and the more groups are vaccinated, the more of an impact we will see

There is a lot of speculation about when this point might be, but most estimates are sometime between mid February and mid March.

That would be good, but there are problems with this estimate in that it takes time for a vaccine to take effect, and with two doses required to take full effect. But you're right that we don't need the full effect to start working towards normality.

The government is also looking into the possibility of accelerating the vaccination program by giving a single dose to more people, rather than a double dose to fewer people. The theory is that having a slightly lower level of protection to a greater number of people is of greater overall benefit, and will means that restrictions can start to be eased sooner than later.

This was covered in another thread but there are issues with it; I won't cover those issues here, to avoid duplicating the discussion.

 

[Class 33]

The government and the media need to stop on concentrating solely on cases. There may still be huge numbers of cases for months and months to come yet. But with this huge vaccination programme being rolled out, soon the numbers of hospitalisations, numbers in hospitals, numbers in mechanical ventilator beds and deaths will thankfully be very very low and will never start rising significantly again. In which case there will be no requirements for all these restrictions any longer.

 

[duncanp]

One thing I fear could ruin a lot of your predictions of most restrictions removed by April, is you remove restrictions, there will be spikes in cases. Potentially huge spikes.
Plus I'm in my late thirties with no known health issues. I don't expect to be vaccinated until September. But what if by then, there are signs that the vulnerable who received the vaccine in Dec/Jan are losing their immunity?

My age group may not get vaccinated as they need to re vaccinate the vulnerable again instead.
That could mean this coronavirus able to still keep surging.
I fear the immunity of the vaccine will not be as long lasting as a lot of you seem to be assuming.

Whilst there may be large spikes in cases when restrictions are removed, the increasing proportion of people vaccinated will mean that there won't be correspondingly large increases in hospitalisations, serious illness and deaths.

As time progresses, the supply of vaccines will improve, as will the number of places able to administer the vaccine. So it will be easy enough to get vaccinated by going to a local pharmacy, as happens with the flu vaccine.

Talking of the flu vaccine, I suspect that there will also be a large increase in the number of people eligible for a free flu vaccine next autumn, possibly extending to everyone. The fewer people with flu, the less pressure on the NHS.

 

[yorkie]

One thing I fear could ruin a lot of your predictions of most restrictions removed by April, is you remove restrictions, there will be spikes in cases. Potentially huge spikes.

But once the most at risk people are vaccinated, it shouldn't matter. But will you really see huge spikes beyond April?

Plus I'm in my late thirties with no known health issues. I don't expect to be vaccinated until September. But what if by then, there are signs that the vulnerable who received the vaccine in Dec/Jan are losing their immunity?

You don't really need to be vaccinated but the indications are that immunity will be longer lasting than, say, 'flu vaccines, because Coronaviruses don't mutate anywhere near as much as influenza.
People who had the original SARS still have immunity and that was 17 years ago.
Bear in mind immunity is not a binary thing at all.

My age group may not get vaccinated as they need to re vaccinate the vulnerable again instead.
That could mean this coronavirus able to still keep surging.

It will reach endemic equilibrium.

I fear the immunity of the vaccine will not be as long lasting as a lot of you seem to be assuming.

Why? It is not that I am making assumptions; I have done research and read numerous sources. If you have any reliable sources to the contrary I'd be interested to see what they have to say.

The government and the media need to stop on concentrating solely on cases. There may still be huge numbers of cases for months and months to come yet. But with this huge vaccination programme being rolled out, soon the numbers of hospitalisations, numbers in hospitals, numbers in mechanical ventilator beds and deaths will thankfully be very very low and will never start rising significantly again. In which case there will be no requirements for all these restrictions any longer.

The excuse for relying on cases is that they are an earlier indicator than hospitalisations and deaths, as by the time you have hospitalisations and deaths it is too late. I can understand this argument, but once the proportion of cases that lead to hospitalisations is drastically reduced, the bar needs to be significantly upped in terms of what level of cases are deemed acceptable before restrictions are imposed.

The pro-lockdown lobby will be wanting to keep us locked down as long as possible and will resist this, but we must be firm with them and ensure they do not get their way. The livelihoods and mental health of millions depend on it. I have no time for people who want us locked down until the entire population has been vaccinated; they are a huge danger to society.

 

[yorksrob]

A slight failure of the right wing press to engage brains or be able to do the maths. The problem is that the best vaccines are 95% effective there is still the 5% who aren't protected post vaccination and that is still a very large number of actual people at potential far greater risk of hospitalisation. At the moment we have no data on how vaccination reduces transmission which will be key in determining required vaccination rates in the wider population (i.e. lower risk groups) to keep the overall case and transmission rates low so that 5% doesn't translate to large hospitalisation numbers when other restrictions are lifted. The new variant and higher transmissibility has meant that this is more important

There are lots of time lags involved: Maximum vaccine effectiveness is two weeks post second dose for Pfizer or Oxford/AZ and hospitalisations/deaths lag transmission and infection by weeks.

No one like restrictions but lots of people are being very unrealistic with themselves and always looking at the most optimistic (unrealistic) outcomes.

Maximum economic recovery in H2 2021 and beyond need maximum vaccination effectiveness and not an untested bodged single dose plan because restrictions could start to be eased 2 weeks earlier on average.

NHS recovery will be very reliant on hammering down case rates not just the minimum to avoid being overwhelmed (what the press are currently looking at). This isn't just about looking at the next step but what lies beyond that.

The warmer weather from April onwards will also help but the cold weather in the mean time won't.

I wouldn't expect to see a bonfire of restrictions but a cautious tapering down as the situation shows noticeable improvement from March onwards.

But we will be going from a position in which 100% of the most vulnerable people are in danger of hospitalisation to one where only 5% of those are. I cannot see how that will not have a major effect on hospitalisation rates, even if the virus is progressing through the rest of the population.

Even in the worst case scenario, the chances of it reaching all of those 5% at the same time must be miniscule, so the chances of the NHS being overwhelmed must be very small indeed.