So what do we do? Stay in lockdown like this till the Autumn when younger age groups are vaccinated, with perhaps a brief respite for a week or two in the height of summer if we are good and the weather is nice?
Once case numbers are lower and a good percentage of the population are vaccinated then restrictions like lockdowns can be eased. The fewer people who opt not to take up the vaccine then the sooner restrictions can be rolled back (note that doesn't include those who have a medical reason not to be vaccinated).
The current worry is of too many people decide that they don't want the vaccine. If there's anyone with such thoughts, what's the reason?
For instance there's those who are worried about "no evidence that extending the gap between doses provides long term protection", well there's no evidence that is safe to be alive tomorrow just because no one has studied it. That's very different to there's the potential for harm because of.... type statements.
To put it another way "there's no evidence of life on other planets" does that statement mean that scientists will be shocked when we find life elsewhere, certainly not as they all know that there almost certainly will be some (mostly not intelligent life before you get excited about aliens making contact with us).
In the same way would scientists be surprised if there's good protection from the vaccines after a gap of up to 80 days, almost certainly not, they just don't have any data on the subject and there's been no trails (i.e. where the people doing it know that there's a risk, rather than everyone, and so there's an element of is what's being done within the rules of what's ethical).
Median age is meaningless. What is important are numbers and nearly 1/4 of patients admitted to hospital with COVID in England are over 85. Also on average a survivor only occupies a hospital bed for 3 1/2 days more than someone who dies.
Therefore if we reduce hospital numbers by 25% but increase the overall numbers of cases by a small amount we still end up with the same amount of hospital bed occupation.
Let's say we've got a ward of 100 beds, currently someone who dies does so after 7 days and we reduce the deaths from 30 to 5 (reduction in hospital time of 175 days) however if someone in hospital who recovers takes up a bed for 10 days and the rates continue to increase then you only need 18 extra in hospital for the hospital to be in the same position.
If the risk of going to hospital is 1:100 then you'd only need an extra 1,800 cases over a 10 day window. Assuming 700/100,000 cases currently that's only going to need to rise to ~1,100/100,000 (assuming 200,000 people per hospital)
So you don’t see it happening then? Vaccine passports would make it all but compulsory. My auntie had the vaccine and she’s been unwell for a a bit due to it so I hope it’s choice based not forced
Vaccine passports wouldn't necessarily work the way that those who want them expect them to work.
For starters even having had the vaccine you should wait at least 2 weeks (ideally 3) after the second dose before you've got full protection. Even then for every 100 people about 10 will still get Covid-19 and potentially be able to pass it on.
Therefore, at least until case numbers are much lower, everyone needs to behave as of they are aren't vaccinated. Especially with regards to limiting the numbers of people they interact with as surface transmission may still be an issue (a vaccine doesn't stop you passing it on by shaking hands with one person who's just rubbed their eyes and has Covid-19 and then 2 minutes later shaking hands with someone else who then rubs their eyes).
A vaccine passport would still mean checking in at venues, is just that you'd use a different app. You may not have to self isolate, although good practice would still recommend that you do, but beyond that there'll be very little difference for now as so few people have had the vaccine.
In time it may allow you to act one tier lower than your are, however only with those who are also vaccinated, but certainly whist there's a need for restrictions to get case numbers down there's going to be little benefit in having been vaccinated.