When will restrictions finally end?

[Bikeman78]

It’s one thing for the police to have a brawl with football fans, however it’s quite another if a large segment of the population simply decides they’re going to ignore restrictions in a more subtle way. There simply aren’t enough police to take that on, just like there aren’t enough police to have a mask inspector on every train, or as seems to be this week’s fad in every supermarket aisle!

To some extent we’re already seeing elements of the gradual breakdown.

I just looked up how many Police officers there are in the UK; answer is 153,000. So that's one copper for every 437 people. Of course well under half will be on duty at any given time so it's more like one copper per 1000 people. Yesterday morning, a large chunk of South Wales Police were at the bottom of my street arresting the local yobs that were allegedly wielding machetes and baseball bats!

 

[kristiang85]

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/?term=Face+masks+COVID-19

You have to click on the link.

Well I clicked on the link, and there are a ton of results totally irrelevant to the discussion.

However, near the top is the Danish RCT study on masks (the largest conducted so far), which concluded that they did not make a statistically significant difference in transmission. It would still benefit from a much wider study, however, and hopefully further research will be forthcoming.

The couple of papers there I looked at that seemed to say masks do make a difference said so on the provisio that they are medical-grade N95s used in controlled enviroments; obviously this is not the case with the masks used in the public.

However, let's not let this go into another mask discussion as the other thread was locked as it had been done to death. It's worth reading though for some insight, as @Bantamzen says.

 

[MikeWM]

HINT: Surgeons haven't been wearing face masks for the past 100 years for fun.

No, they wear them to stop foreign matter (spit etc.) getting into wounds during the surgery, the same reason they wear a hair net. They also protect the surgeon from blood splashes from the patient.

There's no evidence that even surgical face masks have any effect on postoperative wound infection. When studies have been done, they have shown no effect.

 

[heenan73]

Before you start post search results you may want to start reading this currently locked thread, you'll find that the "evidence" that masks work outside of medically controlled environments is not there. Its been discussed time and again on these forums.

None so blind as he who asks for evidence, but can't be bothered to look at it, in case he learn something he doesn't like.

 

[roversfan2001]

None so blind as he who asks for evidence, but can't be bothered to look at it, in case he learn something he doesn't like.

You didn't provide any evidence.

 

[Bikeman78]

Are you able to provide any credible sources that say that masks make a difference?

People stuck to the rules last spring and summer (not 100% but the vast majority). Did the pandemic die away? Clearly not, otherwise we wouldn't be in the mess we're in. The sooner people realise that you can not beat a respiratory virus, the better.

Would now be a good time to point out that no mask, no lockdown Sweden seems to have have it's second peak around mid December? Deaths have been falling since then. I'm guessing the pubs and restaurants are still open in the small village of Stockholm?

 

[Philip]

You didn't provide any evidence.

Would now be a good time to point out that no mask, no lockdown Sweden seems to have have it's second peak around mid December? Deaths have been falling since then. I'm guessing the pubs and restaurants are still open in the small village of Stockholm?

Sweden has fared much worse compared with the other similar Scandinavian countries. Even so, the population density in Sweden is much more spread out than it is here, so that will have helped a lot. They are, possibly as a result of this, naturally more socially distant with each other so again this helps in cutting transmission.

 

[yorksrob]

Would now be a good time to point out that no mask, no lockdown Sweden seems to have have it's second peak around mid December? Deaths have been falling since then. I'm guessing the pubs and restaurants are still open in the small village of Stockholm?

Yes, the lockdown enthusiasts haven't mentioned Sweden for a bit !

 

[Bikeman78]

Sweden has fared much worse compared with the other similar Scandinavian countries. Even so, the population density in Sweden is much more spread out than it is here, so that will have helped a lot. They are, possibly as a result of this, naturally more socially distant with each other so again this helps in cutting transmission.

I also suspect they are a lot healthier than the British. I didn't see many overweight people in Stockholm. As regards population density, my guess is that most deaths are around Stockholm, in the same way that most deaths in Wales are in the South East.

 

[kristiang85]

Sweden has fared much worse compared with the other similar Scandinavian countries. Even so, the population density in Sweden is much more spread out than it is here, so that will have helped a lot. They are, possibly as a result of this, naturally more socially distant with each other so again this helps in cutting transmission.

- Sweden has an urban population, with densities over an above many British cities. Most of Sweden is blank space, so the density argument is not valid.
- There are a few reasons why the metrics don't look good in comparison to their neighbours (e.g. dry tinder, and they did screw up the care home shielding like us), and this graphs shows Sweden's 2020 wasn't out of the ordinary for all-cause mortality. You can see that the big drop off in 2019 is replaced by deaths in 2020, so the two years average out at less than 2017/2018's average.

 

[Bikeman78]

Yes, the lockdown enthusiasts haven't mentioned Sweden for a bit !

Funny that. The media seems to have laid off the "failure" stories too.

 

[Yew]

Sweden has fared much worse compared with the other similar Scandinavian countries. Even so, the population density in Sweden is much more spread out than it is here, so that will have helped a lot. They are, possibly as a result of this, naturally more socially distant with each other so again this helps in cutting transmission.

You can't have that both ways, if population density is important, you can't compare to other Scandinavian countries, as Sweden is more densely packed in its major cities.

If you can keep it out, and in low numbers then yes, trying to suppress is a good idea; however once it's in endemic circulation, it seems that there's no benefit from more restrictive interventions.

 

[Bantamzen]

Well I clicked on the link, and there are a ton of results totally irrelevant to the discussion.

However, near the top is the Danish RCT study on masks (the largest conducted so far), which concluded that they did not make a statistically significant difference in transmission. It would still benefit from a much wider study, however, and hopefully further research will be forthcoming.

The couple of papers there I looked at that seemed to say masks do make a difference said so on the provisio that they are medical-grade N95s used in controlled enviroments; obviously this is not the case with the masks used in the public.

However, let's not let this go into another mask discussion as the other thread was locked as it had been done to death. It's worth reading though for some insight, as @Bantamzen says.

None so blind as he who asks for evidence, but can't be bothered to look at it, in case he learn something he doesn't like.

Uh huh, I guess you read @kristiang85's reply? And I guess you didn't read the thread, because if you had you would have known that had already been discussed.

 

[BJames]

"

When will restrictions finally end?"​

When you people stick to the rules and the pandemic dies away. You can't compromise with disease; either you lockdown hard and do what has to be done, (New Zealand; restrictions now lifted) or you mess about doing just enough to stop hospitals bursting, and it drags on forever (UK; 10 months out, highest figures since Day 1). And while you are messing about, business - including the railways - is in limbo, with no way to plan, no way to really get going. Because all you 'let's get the economy going' people are also getting the virus to spread people.
I know. You'll never see it, you'll never understand. And you'll come out with twaddle like "face masks don't make a jot of difference". Of course they do. They aren't magic; they aren't full PPE - but they (obviously) reduce the risk of you getting infected by someone else's cough/yawn/shout (or you infecting them). Wear one and learn how long two metres is, and we'd be much better off.

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If you just lock down until the virus "goes away" (Hint - it won't just do that) there will be nothing to open back up, the whole economy will have collapsed. And until there is not a single human left on earth infected with Covid-19 the "risk" will always be there. But we now have three successful vaccines - so it's time we speed up vaccinations, accept they are 90-95% effective but not 100%, deal with the tiny risk left that you MIGHT get infected with Covid but with the vaccination it is so incredibly unlikely (and even then it will likely reduce the severity), and move on with our lives, back to pre-March 2020 normal.

When the most vulnerable people have been vaccinated we MUST start to release restrictions. I accept this is unlikely to be immediate or every single restriction until a larger amount of the population has been vaccinated but the main purpose of this is to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed - once most over 60s have been, it won't be overwhelmed.

Agree or disagree?

How long would you be willing to put up with lockdown for? This cannot continue in this way, and it won't - because quite simply we can't afford it.

 

[takno]

They've put in £75K towards the app?

Phew that's a relief, that won't even pay for the dozen Teams calls to discuss the agenda for setting up the committee to decide the agenda for the start-up....

We ran our first start-up for 6 months on £75k! Like most startups we did the calls on Google Meet though - people who insist on using Teams are probably more expensive to hire.

That said, £75k doesn't indicate any actual commitment to the project - I would guess in the last year they've given that much to several hundred potentially interesting health startups that will probably go nowhere.

 

[yorkie]

None so blind as he who asks for evidence, but can't be bothered to look at it, in case he learn something he doesn't like.

That describes people who think mandating the public wear non effective masks; they use 'evidence' based on theoretical scenarios but refuse to look at real world examples.

When they are asked to explain why Ireland - with their long harsh lockdowns and mask mandates - has seen a much steeper rise in cases than Sweden, they have absolutely no answer. When asked why cases soared in countries like Italy and France soon after strict mask mandates, they again have no answer.

And of course the authoritarians love to claim they are the ones following the evidence; you couldn't make this up if you tried!

 

[VauxhallandI]

The BBC have a Covid rules quiz up at the moment and it is astonishing how far out peoples answers are and yet these are probably th folks crying out for more and more rules. Why are we giving these clowns so much airspace, I understand OFCOM but this is going too far; the quiz demonstrates the rules and guidance is a mess and that we shouldn't take thoughts and ideas from the uniformed.

Quiz: How much do you know about the new Covid rules?

A top police office has said it's "preposterous" people don't know lockdown rules - so test yourself.

www.bbc.co.uk

Britain's top police officer, Dame Cressida Dick, says it's "preposterous" to suggest some people are not aware of what the lockdown laws now tell them to do. So how much do you know? For the sake of simplicity, these questions relate to the toughest levels of the current lockdown, not the lesser restrictions where they apply or have done in the past.

I wanted to upload four images of the answers where they show what percentage people have answered for each option but it says the files are too large.

Q1 - You're stepping out for a run or a power walk. What are the rules for getting in shape in England?

A1 - You can go whenever you want - 11%
A2 - You must only exercise close to where you live - 84%
A3 - You are permitted to drive to your nearest beauty spot - and no further - 5%

So clearly A1 is correct.

Other questions are about who can talk to in the street, 74% got the wrong answer

Is queueing closer than 2m at a supermarket against the law - 64% wrong answer

Which type of protest is allowed - 48% wrong answer

 

[Watershed]

Britain's top police officer, Dame Cressida Dick, says it's "preposterous" to suggest some people are not aware of what the lockdown laws now tell them to do.

That's a popularised misquote. She actually said that it was "preposterous anyone was unaware of [their] duty.. to stop the spread of the virus". Something quite different to necessarily knowing what the law says - or means in practice!

 

[VauxhallandI]

That's a popularised misquote. She actually said that it was "preposterous anyone was unaware of [their] duty.. to stop the spread of the virus". Something quite different to necessarily knowing what the law says - or means in practice!

Dear BBC....

 

[Bantamzen]

We ran our first start-up for 6 months on £75k! Like most startups we did the calls on Google Meet though - people who insist on using Teams are probably more expensive to hire.

That said, £75k doesn't indicate any actual commitment to the project - I would guess in the last year they've given that much to several hundred potentially interesting health startups that will probably go nowhere.

Ah but this is the public sector, £75K doesn't account for much at all there (especially if there are any private partners involved).

 

[VauxhallandI]

Ah but this is the public sector, £75K doesn't account for much at all there (especially if there are any private partners involved).

Tutt tutt, public sector buyers are watching your generalisations.....

 

[Bantamzen]

Tutt tutt, public sector buyers are watching your generalisations.....

And adding 200%....

 

[VauxhallandI]

And adding 200%....

Problem is I can no longer stop on a park bench to swap envelopes with strangers.

 

[Horizon22]

This applies where I work, but at Night you can get away with it as there is hardly anyone in the building.

Yes this is the rule at my work too, except when you're at your desk. I've tended to do it most of the time anyway because once I leave the desk, there's mixing with other offices and people anyway.

 

[greyman42]

Those who cannot receive the vaccine will fall into exactly the same category as those who cannot wear a face covering. The rules might similarly say they shouldn't be discriminated against, but the majority of people and businesses will nevertheless openly do so.

The hospitality sector will not care less and rightly so. One persons pound is the same as the next persons pound.

 

[Horizon22]

Those who cannot receive the vaccine will fall into exactly the same category as those who cannot wear a face covering. The rules might similarly say they shouldn't be discriminated against, but the majority of people and businesses will nevertheless openly do so.

What about if the issue is "can not" simply because it has not been offered to them? I'm sure plenty of under 50s would gladly have the vaccine. But if you are prevented freedom of movement (let's say taking a flight) that others are afforded because you cannot access a product (a vaccine) due to a government mandate, that is tantamount to discrimination.

 

[bb21]

I think we have deviated far from the original topic and there has been ample opportunity to discuss it, so to keep the whole forum manageable this one is locked given the number of parallel discussions that appear in several threads.