Whither XC after HS2?

[Purple Orange]

I think it's unlikely that HS2 East does go ahead and if it does it won't open until after my 70th birthday (Sept 2039). I also think "via Huddersfield" is just the Transpennine Route Upgrade and won't link to HS2 at Manchester. The populations of the WY and GM boroughs say "via Bradford" would benefit more people who live on a corridor that is in dire need of transformation (I think Bradford has the worst express offer of any city of its size in England and a way needs to be found to take more cars off the M62, A62 and A58 over the pennines). But due to cost I don't think it will happen

I can see your point about the risk to the eastern branch, but I disagree with the idea that if NPR becomes just TRU, then it won’t connect in to Piccadilly. There are three possible scenarios to consider:

1. Full new NPR line via Bradford (very unlikely)
2. Partial new NPR line via Huddersfield (more likely)
3. Just TRU (happening regardless)

My reason is that HS2 is providing the infrastructure to solve a significant problem in Manchester, chiefly exasperated by TPE services running through Oxford Road. As soon as HS2 to Manchester is open there is the opportunity to decongest castlefield a little more by taking the Leeds-Airport fast services away and then having them reverse at Piccadilly without interfering with services on the existing Piccadilly throat to the WCML. That might not deal with Liverpool services, but if the infrastructure and additional platforms exist at Piccadilly, it would be profligate to not utilise them. If NPR happens as a partial new line, trains leaving Piccadilly may still need to use the existing line, just as they would with TRU only.

The media would also have a field day about a ‘white elephant’ having been built. Hopefully you will have many years to enjoy a train journey on NPR & HS2 long after you’re 70! Plus, it should be 2035 by the time HS2 arrives in Manchester, enabling the fast Leeds-Airport trains the access Piccadilly HS2.

Now if that happens, it does have a much bigger impact on XC. It paves the way for Birmingham-Manchester HS2 services to continue to Leeds & Newcastle, freeing up capacity between Birmingham & Leeds via Sheffield.

 

[Glenn1969]

But journey times would surely be slower via Manchester and lack of express connectivity Sheffield- Leeds is an issue that can only be solved by HS2b East

 

[Purple Orange]

But journey times would surely be slower via Manchester and lack of express connectivity Sheffield- Leeds is an issue that can only be solved by HS2b East

No it would be faster via Manchester.

HS2 phase 2b West + TRU:
Birmingham - Manchester = 41 mins (HS2)
Dwell time 5 mins
Manchester - Leeds = 43 mins (TRU)*
Total = 89 mins (31 mins faster than today)

HS2 phase 2b West + NPR (via Huddersfield)
Birmingham - Manchester = 41 mins (HS2)
Dwell time 5 mins
Manchester - Leeds = 31 mins (NPR)*
Total = 77 mins (43 mins faster than today)

HS2 phase 2b West + NPR (via Bradford)
Birmingham - Manchester = 41 mins (HS2)
Dwell time 5 mins
Manchester - Leeds = 26 mins (NPR)*
Total = 72 mins (48 mins faster than today)

HS2 phase 2b East:
Birmingham - Leeds = 49 mins (HS2)
Total = 49 mins (71 mins faster than today)

Cross Country Today:
Manchester - Birmingham = 90 mins
Leeds - Birmingham = 120 mins

So even with a 5 min dwell time and TRU only, a route via Manchester is faster. Even for allowing a change of trains at Piccadilly, you’d be better off going via Manchester. For people who are ok with the walk, it would be faster going to Victoria then walking to Piccadilly with 36 mins spare and boarding HS2 than it would be getting the direct XC train from Leeds, assuming phase 2b East is not built.

Sheffield-Leeds needs HS2, but that would be irrelevant to the Birmingham-Manchester-Leeds times.

*as per NIC report.

 

[PTR 444]

No it would be faster via Manchester.

HS2 phase 2b West + TRU:
Birmingham - Manchester = 41 mins (HS2)
Dwell time 5 mins
Manchester - Leeds = 43 mins (TRU)*
Total = 89 mins (31 mins faster than today)

HS2 phase 2b West + NPR (via Huddersfield)
Birmingham - Manchester = 41 mins (HS2)
Dwell time 5 mins
Manchester - Leeds = 31 mins (NPR)*
Total = 77 mins (43 mins faster than today)

HS2 phase 2b West + NPR (via Bradford)
Birmingham - Manchester = 41 mins (HS2)
Dwell time 5 mins
Manchester - Leeds = 26 mins (NPR)*
Total = 72 mins (48 mins faster than today)

HS2 phase 2b East:
Birmingham - Leeds = 49 mins (HS2)
Total = 49 mins (71 mins faster than today)

Cross Country Today:
Manchester - Birmingham = 90 mins
Leeds - Birmingham = 120 mins

So even with a 5 min dwell time and TRU only, a route via Manchester is faster. Even for allowing a change of trains at Piccadilly, you’d be better off going via Manchester. For people who are ok with the walk, it would be faster going to Victoria then walking to Piccadilly with 36 mins spare and boarding HS2 than it would be getting the direct XC train from Leeds, assuming phase 2b East is not built.

Sheffield-Leeds needs HS2, but that would be irrelevant to the Birmingham-Manchester-Leeds times.

*as per NIC report.

I’m confused. 49 minutes via HS2b East is surely faster than 72 minutes via Manchester?

 

[Purple Orange]

I’m confused. 49 minutes via HS2b East is surely faster than 72 minutes via Manchester?

If phase 2b East is built then yes it is faster. The issue is if phase 2b East is not built. Therefore it is faster to travel via Manchester from Leeds to Birmingham, rather then use the existing XC service via Sheffield.

 

[Glenn1969]

But your service carries on to York, Newcastle and Edinburgh where the case for via Manchester is less clear compared to the existing XC service given that the one via Doncaster is half an hour quicker than Via Leeds. And if you are changing trains is 5 minutes enough dwell? For a disabled person like me or someone with luggage probably not

 

[Purple Orange]

But your service carries on to York, Newcastle and Edinburgh where the case for via Manchester is less clear compared to the existing XC service given that the one via Doncaster is half an hour quicker than Via Leeds. And if you are changing trains is 5 minutes enough dwell? For a disabled person like me or someone with luggage probably not

The 5 mins dwell is fairly consistent with other services that reverse. A train that is stopping at a through station would be 2-3 mins. Those numbers are based on a train that is direct and you don’t need to change trains, which is the whole point of the NPR station at Piccadilly. Now, I’m saying NPR here, but that equally applies to a situation where only TRU has happened - as long as the HS2 junction at Ardwick is used.

Regarding the via Doncaster services, Newcastle-Birmingham takes just under 3 hours, at 172 minutes. With TRU, journey times between Manchester & York should reduce to 1 hour, with full electrification. It is a further hour to Newcastle, giving an overall journey time of approximately 162 mins from Birmingham to Newcastle via Manchester.

That is a much smaller time saving, but given both would be direct trains, and the Manchester route combines TPE routes with XC routes, it seems to make sense to me to do that.

That can happen by 2035, in time for your retirement

 

[adrock1976]

The 5 mins dwell is fairly consistent with other services that reverse. A train that is stopping at a through station would be 2-3 mins. Those numbers are based on a train that is direct and you don’t need to change trains, which is the whole point of the NPR station at Piccadilly. Now, I’m saying NPR here, but that equally applies to a situation where only TRU has happened - as long as the HS2 junction at Ardwick is used.

Regarding the via Doncaster services, Newcastle-Birmingham takes just under 3 hours, at 172 minutes. With TRU, journey times between Manchester & York should reduce to 1 hour, with full electrification. It is a further hour to Newcastle, giving an overall journey time of approximately 162 mins from Birmingham to Newcastle via Manchester.

That is a much smaller time saving, but given both would be direct trains, and the Manchester route combines TPE routes with XC routes, it seems to make sense to me to do that.

That can happen by 2035, in time for your retirement

I would like to mention that the minimum interchange time at Manchester Pic is 10 minutes if you are specifying the need to change trains there.

 

[EllieAquitrain]

So if the consensus is that there'll be much more demand for XC from south of Birmingham than north, might we end up seeing through South Coast - South West trains for operational convenience?

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Surely the only XC journeys that will be able to easily transfer to HS2 will be ones starting or ending in Birmingham to and from points north. Of all the Intercity TOCs, XC if anything will be the least impacted by HS2, apart from Great Western. Oh and TPE, but that depends on whether you class that as Intercity.

 

[HST43257]

Surely the only XC journeys that will be able to easily transfer to HS2 will be ones starting or ending in Birmingham to and from points north. Of all the Intercity TOCs, XC if anything will be the least impacted by HS2, apart from Great Western. Oh and TPE, but that depends on whether you class that as Intercity.

The changes to XC that are brought about can result in lower frequencies and slower journeys. Newcastle and York don’t need a fast service to Birmingham via Doncaster when 2b opens. This means Hull can get on the XC map. Same applies for Manchester to Birmingham, they can have 1tph only, with the other being to Liverpool, assisting with the reconnections to XC here.

 

[Purple Orange]

I would like to mention that the minimum interchange time at Manchester Pic is 10 minutes if you are specifying the need to change trains there.

Yes if changing trains, but the need is unlikely. Even if you did, the main XC flows between Leeds, Manchester & Birmingham (the largest city economies outside of London) are better connected as one route.

The changes to XC that are brought about can result in lower frequencies and slower journeys. Newcastle and York don’t need a fast service to Birmingham via Doncaster when 2b opens. This means Hull can get on the XC map. Same applies for Manchester to Birmingham, they can have 1tph only, with the other being to Liverpool, assisting with the reconnections to XC here.

Exactly. XC is the most heavily impacted TOC of the lot. How and why people think it will be unaffected when it’s three main cities will be key components of HS2 baffles me. The journey times speak for themselves.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Everyone seems to forget Sheffield. Because Sheffield will be on a branch from 2b it will not get high speed services from Birmingham. Nor will it get services to York, Newcastle and beyond if services are diverted to Hull!

 

[Purple Orange]

Everyone seems to forget Sheffield. Because Sheffield will be on a branch from 2b it will not get high speed services from Birmingham. Nor will it get services to York, Newcastle and beyond if services are diverted to Hull!

But then Sheffield is to get MER services, which are essentially legacy XC, from Reading to somewhere like Hull/Doncaster. NPR will also have services too and it might be that Sheffield loses an ECML connection to Newcastle on MER to Birmingham, but gains a connection to Newcastle through a service from Leicester on MER.

 

[Peterthegreat]

But then Sheffield is to get MER services, which are essentially legacy XC, from Reading to somewhere like Hull/Doncaster. NPR will also have services too and it might be that Sheffield loses an ECML connection to Newcastle on MER to Birmingham, but gains a connection to Newcastle through a service from Leicester on MER.

MER?

 

[Purple Orange]

MER?

Midlands Engine Rail. It’s the midlands version of Northern Powerhouse Rail, but not quite as big an infrastructure job - principally because it’s biggest infrastructure needs is based on HS2 phase 2b east.

Edit: looking at their website, they do appear to look at connecting the north east to Birmingham & Reading, suggesting at least the Reading-Newcastle via Doncaster would continue, but not the Leeds service.

 

[Glenn1969]

It's a wishlist like NPR. Not at all certain to happen. TfN's wishlist includes NPR Sheffield to Leeds. But absolutely nobody on here thinks it will be funded. I happen to think the fact that the Tories delayed their Integrated Rail Plan until after the elections on 6th May is a sign of bad news for those of us that want investment in infrastructure in the North and Midlands

 

[Purple Orange]

Nothing is certain Glenn, we understand that.

 

[JamesT]

Everyone seems to forget Sheffield. Because Sheffield will be on a branch from 2b it will not get high speed services from Birmingham. Nor will it get services to York, Newcastle and beyond if services are diverted to Hull!

It doesn't get a direct service with the current proposed pattern. But there are still 2tph of HS2 from Sheffield going South via East Midlands Hub, where you could then change onto the 3tph going to Curzon Street. Even with the change, that's almost certainly going to be faster than the current XC service, isn't it?

 

[Peterthegreat]

t doesn't get a direct service with the current proposed pattern. But there are still 2tph of HS2 from Sheffield going South via East Midlands Hub, where you could then change onto the 3tph going to Curzon Street. Even with the change, that's almost certainly going to be faster than the current XC service, isn't it?

According to the HS2 website Sheffield to Curon St will be 2 minutes quicker by changing at Toton!

 

[GoneSouth]

If there are plans to do things like London-Birmingham-Manchester then XC doesn't need to duplicate that over the Birmingham-Manchester corridor..

Except that many of the XC journeys on the Brum to Man route originate in Cheltenham, Bristol, Taunton, Exeter, Plymouth so it shouldn’t just be scrapped in favour of all those passengers having to run around Birmingham City centre to change stations

Before we write off traffic from Plymouth to the north of England as a niche market, may I add that those trains have significant value in the other direction: Devon and the so-far-not-mentioned Cornwall are major holiday destinations who receive a lot of visitors from the north, and having direct services from Scotland, the north of England and the midlands is still valued accordingly, particularly as we would like fewer visitors to come by car.

Changing at Birmingham or crossing London are fine for the train-savvy, nimble and time-sensitive, but less attractive options to anyone juggling kiddies and holiday luggage, even if the direct journey is slower. It's not just the inconvenience of switching trains: it's the uncertainty of making the connection and losing booked seats together.

It's clearly true that travelling north from Birmingham itself will be quicker by HS2. But on journeys between the south coast/south-west and north/Scotland you need to factor in the inter-station transfer and suitable connection allowances, so changing at Birmingham to HS2 for services north won't reduce journey times by much in comparison to the overall journey time, and through trains to the north will remain an attractive option.

And given that CrossCountry certainly used to encourage people to change at quieter stations outside Birmingham to reduce crowding and inter-platform transfers at New Street, I wonder how sensible it would be to force everyone off every XC train at that station, particularly if more people are alighting there from the central core to switch to transfer to HS2 for London, rather than continuing to allow many to travel through.

So to answer the original question: yes, long-distance direct still does have value for those of us at or near the extremities. And yes, it would be nice to have a wider range of links to and from both sides of the north. Like we used to.

Thanks, sums up a lot of what I think about this topic. There was mention earlier of railways being run for operational convenience rather than benefit to the passengers and I think there’s definitely an element of that in the XC service to Cornwall.

Yes, XC have done as they were obliged to do in maintaining the set number of links from Cornwall to the Midlands and north, however let’s look at what time those services actually run. What tourist/holidaymaker/family wants to be arriving in West Cornwall for their holiday at 2200-2300 which is what happens now. The XC services then leave by 9am so again, not great if your a tourist. This is obviously done to maximise the use of the voyager and staff moves and not at all what is best for passengers.

in summary, keep Devon/Cornwall to the north direct links, but target them properly at the market they should be serving right now by running at times when leisure travellers want to travel, which doesn’t involve wandering around St Austel or Penzance @2200-2300

 

[JonathanH]

What is it about XC passengers that they are seen as less capable of changing trains than anyone else? If someone lives east or south of London and wants to go North they have to change trains in London. They know this is going to give the quickest service offering.

There is straightforward connectivity at Plymouth for passengers from Cornwall to destinations further north. This runs every hour (pre-March 2020). It is not for XC to provide the all-day service in Cornwall. I note that XC has traditionally run at more convenient times in Cornwall on Summer Saturdays if we really are planning timetables around 'holidaymakers'.

What tourist/holidaymaker/family wants to be arriving in West Cornwall for their holiday at 2200-2300 which is what happens now.

I expect they change in Plymouth and arrive at a sensible time rather than waiting for the through train. The arrival of the first through train at St Austell is around 8pm in any case.

 

[Purple Orange]

Except that many of the XC journeys on the Brum to Man route originate in Cheltenham, Bristol, Taunton, Exeter, Plymouth so it shouldn’t just be scrapped in favour of all those passengers having to run around Birmingham City centre to change stations

Thanks, sums up a lot of what I think about this topic. There was mention earlier of railways being run for operational convenience rather than benefit to the passengers and I think there’s definitely an element of that in the XC service to Cornwall.

Yes, XC have done as they were obliged to do in maintaining the set number of links from Cornwall to the Midlands and north, however let’s look at what time those services actually run. What tourist/holidaymaker/family wants to be arriving in West Cornwall for their holiday at 2200-2300 which is what happens now. The XC services then leave by 9am so again, not great if your a tourist. This is obviously done to maximise the use of the voyager and staff moves and not at all what is best for passengers.

in summary, keep Devon/Cornwall to the north direct links, but target them properly at the market they should be serving right now by running at times when leisure travellers want to travel, which doesn’t involve wandering around St Austel or Penzance @2200-2300

I’d argue that by continuing to run XC to Manchester with 2 tph in parallel with HS2 over the Manchester-Birmingham stretch, passengers are not being considered at all. I think priority should be given to the local/regional commuter flows in to Manchester & Birmingham living along the Crewe and Stoke lines, rather the occasional passenger from Taunton, who will have a much faster service with one change of train potentially at Moor Street. Continuing with the same frequency and same service patterns means that the XC services travelling between Manchester & Birmingham would mostly be carrying fresh air, unless the trains were reduced to being 1 carriage in length or made far more stops along the route.

What is it about XC passengers that they are seen as less capable of changing trains than anyone else? If someone lives east or south of London and wants to go North they have to change trains in London. They know this is going to give the quickest service offering.

This.

 

[greatvoyager]

When are any changes going to potentially happen? As in what year?

 

[Bletchleyite]

What is it about XC passengers that they are seen as less capable of changing trains than anyone else?

The fact that they're even using XC? Using other TOCs with a change of train is mostly quicker than using their services at all (which is good, as I will do more or less anything to avoid using them as they're rubbish), but some people value a direct journey, either due to simplicity, or because they have a lot of luggage, or because they are elderly or infirm.

In particular a change across London is a right faff. People on here are I suspect likely to enjoy it, but "normal" people won't.

 

[JonathanH]

When are any changes going to potentially happen? As in what year?

Not before the 2030s (or even 2040) when the various 'north of Birmingham' bits of HS2 open. Until then, it should be expected that very little will change.

Some changes could also happen in 2023 if there are any DfT-led changes arising from the end of the current direct award. Seems unlikely there would be a complete remapping or substantial changes at that point.

 

[greatvoyager]

Not before the 2030s (or even 2040) when the various 'north of Birmingham' bits of HS2 open. Until then, it should be expected that very little will change.

Some changes could also happen in 2023 if there are any DfT-led changes arising from the end of the current direct award. Seems unlikely there would be a complete remapping or substantial changes at that point.

Thank you.

 

[EllieAquitrain]

The fact that they're even using XC? Using other TOCs with a change of train is mostly quicker than using their services at all (which is good, as I will do more or less anything to avoid using them as they're rubbish), but some people value a direct journey, either due to simplicity, or because they have a lot of luggage, or because they are elderly or infirm.

In particular a change across London is a right faff. People on here are I suspect likely to enjoy it, but "normal" people won't.

Something I think keeps getting overlooked in this thread is that HS2, for a lot of the South West, will not require anything resembling their current "trek across London" - it will be an easy change within one station (OOC).

 

[quantinghome]

It doesn't get a direct service with the current proposed pattern. But there are still 2tph of HS2 from Sheffield going South via East Midlands Hub, where you could then change onto the 3tph going to Curzon Street. Even with the change, that's almost certainly going to be faster than the current XC service, isn't it?

Or, in compensation for a lack of direct service on HS2, the XC service frequency could be increased to that seen on TPE: a train every 15 minutes from Birmingham to Sheffield. A turn up and go service along this corridor with a semi-fast stopping pattern would be a great improvement. This after all is one of the purposes of HS2 - freeing up 'classic' lines to run more trains closer together.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Something I think keeps getting overlooked in this thread is that HS2, for a lot of the South West, will not require anything resembling their current "trek across London" - it will be an easy change within one station (OOC).

Yes, this is very true and is a rather different game as I mentioned elsewhere (I think). OOC means the WCML (HS2) and GWML are joined, and Euston being near St P and KX join the other two key mainlines plus HS1 to it as well. Anything else is primarily commuter or shortish-distance (give or take Weymouth and Salisbury), and that has different needs anyway. It's not really similar to the awkward and not very pleasant trek from Paddington to Euston.