Whither XC after HS2?

[Gareth]

Sure. Why not?

 

[Ianno87]

The countless times I’ve been on a XC departing Piccadilly and the vast majority of reservations are for New Street. Manchester-Birmingham is the main flow north of Brum and it really is a case of 3 services stitched together to make 1. Take away the main flow north of Brum on to HS2 and the case for continuing 2 XC each hour from Piccadilly on the WCML sinks like brick.

Perhaps future south coast and south west services from Manchester & Sheffield should operate like the TPE services to Scotland on the WCML.

• 1tp2h Manchester - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1tp2h Manchester - Birmingham - Bournemouth
• 1tp2h Newcastle - Leeds - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1tp2h Newcastle - Leeds - Birmingham - Bournemouth
• 1tp2h Liverpool - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1tp2h Liverpool - Birmingham - Bournemouth
• 1tp2h Hull - Doncaster - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1tp2h Hull - Doncaster - Birmingham - Bournemouth

Strikes me as a horrible two-hourly pattern through New Street which is the last thing you need when trying to make best use of capacity.

 

[Metrolink]

Birmingham New St to Manchester Piccadilly 2tph (Sandwell and Dudley, Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stone, Stoke, Kidsgrove, Congleton, Macclesfield, Cheadle Hulme, Stockport)

Seems like a good idea, but Cheadle Hulme limits car capacitiy to six-car trains I’m pretty sure.

The Northern stopper could terminate at Macclesfield since all of the stops have been replaced with this service. Congleton would now have a half decent service, especially on Sundays.

There’s no point in that might as well keep it for connections from Poynton, Bramhall, Adlington - Stoke etc. Not much demand but keeps it for the sake of it, unless there is a good enough compromise.

Birmingham New St to Oxford 2tph (Bham Intl, Coventry, Kenilworth, Leamington Spa, Banbury)

Is there the capacity between Coventry and Leamington? Though I wish it could happen: that would be great.

Services from Bristol and the southwest could terminate at New St or be diverted to Moor St as some are planned to.

How??? People on this thread keep mentioning this topic but how is this even going to happen. And the benefits: saving a ~300m walk. Not worth it. Use the large station that has been recently refurbished.
Not avoid it.

 

[swt_passenger]

There has been a long campaign in Warwickshire to reopen Kenilworth station and run trains between Leamington Spa and Nuneaton, so as to provide one change journey at Nuneaton for Leamington - East Midlands Region passengers (mainly Leicester). Also, see the NUCKLE website (Nuneaton - Coventry - Leamington Spa).

I believe there are plans to reinstate the former dive under at Nuneaton (maybe a curve to/from Platform 1 for trains to reverse direction?) as Coventry had its direct trains to Leicester curtailed at Nuneaton when the track works back in 2004 severed the connection.

Nuneaton to Leamington via Kenilworth was already running pre-COVID surely? Although running services across Coventry came as something of a surprise, but they’re back in RTT from May 17th. Shouldn’t need the NUCKLE website now...

But reinstating the former diveunder seems no more than an unfunded local authority wish list item.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'd love to get some data on, for a typical XC service departing (say) Manchester, how many passengers on that train are still on by the time the train reaches Stoke/Brum/Bristol/Oxford/Reading/wherever, to see where the "tail off" in volume of passengers occurs starting from each stop.

Taking New Street as an example, I've been on XC services where practically the entire load of passengers changed over there, whereas on others have only a relatively low proportion of people get off/on.

You’ll not be surprised to learn that there are big differences in the figures depending on the time of day, day of week, time of year, and of course the route concerned.

Last time I did Manchester to Birmingham, I was one of only a handful of people on my coach that boarded at Manchester and was still on at Wolverhampton. There was a large turnover, sometimes twice. This was an evening peak in the week.

Same train on a Thursday / Friday night or Sunday afternoon would see a lot more people staying on, well beyond Birmingham too.

However, the average trip length of a Cross Country passenger is remarkable short - something like 30 miles, and certainly less than 50.

 

[Purple Orange]

Strikes me as a horrible two-hourly pattern through New Street which is the last thing you need when trying to make best use of capacity.

Is it? Each destination is hourly from the north and half-hourly from the south.

 

[JonathanH]

Perhaps future south coast and south west services from Manchester & Sheffield should operate like the TPE services to Scotland on the WCML.

• 1tp2h Manchester - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1tp2h Manchester - Birmingham - Bournemouth
• 1tp2h Newcastle - Leeds - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1tp2h Newcastle - Leeds - Birmingham - Bournemouth
• 1tp2h Liverpool - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1tp2h Liverpool - Birmingham - Bournemouth
• 1tp2h Hull - Doncaster - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1tp2h Hull - Doncaster - Birmingham - Bournemouth

TPE to Scotland is a bit different though isn't it. The choice of routes is at Carstairs, not at the busy centre of the rail network.

If you go back to the post-Operation Princess timetable in the middle of the 2000s, Cross Country was run like this.

Essentially, standard pattern from Birmingham south as today. Reading trains came from Manchester and Bristol trains from Newcastle but with the northern points for the Bournemouth and Plymouth services cycled between three routes (Manchester, Scotland via WCML and Scotland via ECML / Leeds in a complicated pattern), with one terminating in Birmingham each hour.

The simplification of routes in 2008 and since must have been made for good reason.

Is it? Each destination is hourly from the north and half-hourly from the south.

It means that the trains have variable amounts of dwell time in Birmingham New Street and therefore platform occupancy and everything else has to fit differently in alternate hours - that is a bit of a nuisance when all the other trains run on a repeating hourly pattern.

 

[Ianno87]

Is it? Each destination is hourly from the north and half-hourly from the south.

How do you make a neat hourly repeating platform plan at New Street (and on its immediate approches) if services have to swap over with each other on alternate hours?

As @JonathanH says, it was standardised in 2008 for a very good reason.

 

[Purple Orange]

TPE to Scotland is a bit different though isn't it. The choice of routes is at Carstairs, not at the busy centre of the rail network.

If you go back to the post-Operation Princess timetable in the middle of the 2000s, Cross Country was run like this.

Essentially, standard pattern from Birmingham south as today. Reading trains came from Manchester and Bristol trains from Newcastle but with the northern points for the Bournemouth and Plymouth services cycled between three routes (Manchester, Scotland via WCML and Scotland via ECML / Leeds in a complicated pattern), with one terminating in Birmingham each hour.

The simplification of routes in 2008 and since must have been made for good reason.

It means that the trains have variable amounts of dwell time in Birmingham New Street and therefore platform occupancy and everything else has to fit differently in alternate hours - that is a bit of a nuisance when all the other trains run on a repeating hourly pattern.

Oh well stuff it... maybe let’s have:

XC:

• 1 tph Liverpool - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1 tph Newcastle - Leeds - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1 tph Liverpool - Birmingham - Bournemouth
• 1 tph Hull - Doncaster - Birmingham - Bournemouth

ICWC Semi-fast (Operated by LNW):

• 1 tph London - Manchester via Birmingham & Stoke
• 1 tph London - Liverpool via TV
• 1 tph London - Shrewsbury via Birmingham
• 1 tph London - North Wales

HS2 (Western Branch & East Branch to EMP)

• 3 tph London - Manchester
• 1 tph London - Manchester via Stafford, Stoke & Macclesfield
• 3 tph London - Birmingham
• 2 tph London - Liverpool
• 2 tph London - Glasgow/Edinburgh
• 2 tph London - Nottingham
• 2 tph London - Sheffield
• 2 tph Birmingham - Edinburgh via Manchester & Leeds
• 1 tph Birmingham - Glasgow/Edinburgh
• 2 tph Birmingham - Nottingham

NPR (Consisting of TRU via Huddersfield & East Manchester bypass):

• 2 tph Crewe - Leeds via Manchester Piccadilly
• 2 tph Liverpool - Hull via Manchester Victoria
• 2 tph Liverpool - Nottingham via Castlefield

 

[HST43257]

XC:

• 1 tph Liverpool - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1 tph Newcastle - Leeds - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1 tph Liverpool - Birmingham - Bournemouth
• 1 tph Hull - Doncaster - Birmingham - Bournemouth

Send the top one to Manchester. 2 to Liverpool not needed, plus places like Stoke still need at least hourly Birmingham XCs.

ICWC Semi-fast (Operated by LNW):

• 1 tph London - Manchester via Birmingham & Stoke
• 1 tph London - Liverpool via TV
• 1 tph London - Shrewsbury via Birmingham
• 1 tph London - North Wales

Swap the Manchester and the Liverpool. Liverpool and Runcorn (ideally Widnes South instead) will get 2 London HS2 services every hour. The fast Manchester and Stoke to Milton Keynes via TV connection should be maintained, even if there is a Nuneaton stop or something.

 

[WideRanger]

Sure. Why not?

10 trains per hour for, say 12 hours per day, would mean 120 trains each way. If each train has 8 carriages, and around 80 seats per carriage, that's around 600 seats per train. So that means there would be 72,000 seats both arriving and departing from Liverpool toward Birmingham and London every day. Is there likely to be that level of demand for making such a journey?

 

[Gareth]

Since you put it like that, it does seem a bit low. That said, I wouldn't go higher than twelve.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Since you put it like that, it does seem a bit low. That said, I wouldn't go higher than twelpove.

What are you proposing, putting Class 153s down it?

If you said three trains per hour to be a future aspiration you might have been nearer the mark, and there is potentially scope for a third slightly slower HS2 train to Liverpool by portion working from the Macclesfield at Stafford (which could potentially be a cheaper offer as it'd be slower). But why be silly about it? There is not demand or paths for 12 trains per hour from any single HS2 destination to Euston - that's not far off the full service to all destinations!

 

[adrock1976]

Oh well stuff it... maybe let’s have:

XC:

• 1 tph Liverpool - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1 tph Newcastle - Leeds - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1 tph Liverpool - Birmingham - Bournemouth
• 1 tph Hull - Doncaster - Birmingham - Bournemouth

ICWC Semi-fast (Operated by LNW):

• 1 tph London - Manchester via Birmingham & Stoke
• 1 tph London - Liverpool via TV
• 1 tph London - Shrewsbury via Birmingham
• 1 tph London - North Wales

HS2 (Western Branch & East Branch to EMP)

• 3 tph London - Manchester
• 1 tph London - Manchester via Stafford, Stoke & Macclesfield
• 3 tph London - Birmingham
• 2 tph London - Liverpool
• 2 tph London - Glasgow/Edinburgh
• 2 tph London - Nottingham
• 2 tph London - Sheffield
• 2 tph Birmingham - Edinburgh via Manchester & Leeds
• 1 tph Birmingham - Glasgow/Edinburgh
• 2 tph Birmingham - Nottingham

NPR (Consisting of TRU via Huddersfield & East Manchester bypass):

• 2 tph Crewe - Leeds via Manchester Piccadilly
• 2 tph Liverpool - Hull via Manchester Victoria
• 2 tph Liverpool - Nottingham via Castlefield

Has Toton Interchange relocated to Nottingham?

Otherwise, how do the trains get to Nottingham from Toton?

 

[Gareth]

What are you proposing, putting Class 153s down it?

How did you know?

 

[Bevan Price]

The countless times I’ve been on a XC departing Piccadilly and the vast majority of reservations are for New Street. Manchester-Birmingham is the main flow north of Brum and it really is a case of 3 services stitched together to make 1. Take away the main flow north of Brum on to HS2 and the case for continuing 2 XC each hour from Piccadilly on the WCML sinks like brick.

Perhaps future south coast and south west services from Manchester & Sheffield should operate like the TPE services to Scotland on the WCML.

• 
  
• 1tp2h Liverpool - Birmingham - Plymouth
• 1tp2h Liverpool - Birmingham - Bournemouth

No thanks - not until they electrify south/west of Birmingham. There are already too many diesels running under the wires, and I doubt that XC will get any bi-modes for many years.

 

[Purple Orange]

Has Toton Interchange relocated to Nottingham?

Otherwise, how do the trains get to Nottingham from Toton?

They don’t get to Nottingham from Toton. Th S is under the assumption just a short stretch of the eastern leg is built as far as East Midlands parkway. Midlands Connectare proposing that there will be Nottingham services to Birmingham Curzon Street.

 

[tetudo boy]

Send the top one to Manchester. 2 to Liverpool not needed, plus places like Stoke still need at least hourly Birmingham XCs.

2tph XC to Liverpool is needed.
As said before, LNWR has a 2tph to Birmingham, but it’s not enough as it’s a stopper service.
Having 2 fast XC services to both Bournemouth and Plymouth is sort of essential.
It’s about time Liverpool get’s it’s XC mojo back.

Yes, LNWR may lose services to Liverpool, but running the current Birmingham to Liverpool instead to Preston or Blackpool, and the Liverpool service along the Trent Valley (essentially an extension of the Crewe service) can be helpful, post HS2, at least.

As for Manchester... I have no idea, but it must have some sort of convenient service by XC.

 

[adrock1976]

They don’t get to Nottingham from Toton. Th S is under the assumption just a short stretch of the eastern leg is built as far as East Midlands parkway. Midlands Connectare proposing that there will be Nottingham services to Birmingham Curzon Street.

Many thanks.

 

[Purple Orange]

2tph XC to Liverpool is needed.


As for Manchester... I have no idea, but it must have some sort of convenient service by XC.

I’m not sure 2 tph XC is really needed to anywhere north of Birmingham. Given Liverpool won’t be hooked up to HS2 in the same way as Manchester (unless Liverpool gets a dedicated line via the NPR line through Warrington), I think it is more important for Liverpool to possibly have 1 tph to both Reading and Bristol than it is for Manchester. Leeds has had 1 tph for years.

Personally I think there is more value in a local stopping service in to Piccadilly and Leeds than a long distance XC service to Reading or Bristol that will be having the vast majority of it’s passengers taken away by HS2.

 

[Ianno87]

I’m not sure 2 tph XC is really needed to anywhere north of Birmingham. Given Liverpool won’t be hooked up to HS2 in the same way as Manchester (unless Liverpool gets a dedicated line via the NPR line through Warrington), I think it is more important for Liverpool to possibly have 1 tph to both Reading and Bristol than it is for Manchester. Leeds has had 1 tph for years.

Personally I think there is more value in a local stopping service in to Piccadilly and Leeds than a long distance XC service to Reading or Bristol that will be having the vast majority of it’s passengers taken away by HS2.

Both Liverpool and Manchester "need" a 2tph services between themselves and Birmingham, serving major stops along the way. Any direct cross-Birmingham connections beyond this are simply a bonus. I'd argue that Manchester is always likely to be the bigger market of the two from the likes of Bristol etc, but how much that can still be adequately served by a connection onto HS2 at Curzon Street is certainly up for debate.

 

[Purple Orange]

Both Liverpool and Manchester "need" a 2tph services between themselves and Birmingham, serving major stops along the way. Any direct cross-Birmingham connections beyond this are simply a bonus. I'd argue that Manchester is always likely to be the bigger market of the two from the likes of Bristol etc, but how much that can still be adequately served by a connection onto HS2 at Curzon Street is certainly up for debate.

I do not think the service pattern below is very useful.

• 2 tph Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Airport, (Crewe potentially), Birmingham Curzon Street in 45 minutes
• 2 tph Manchester Piccadilly, Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke, Stafford, Wolverhampton, Birmingham New Street in 90 minutes

There are several issues with this:

1. People who are from Greater Manchester and use Piccadilly, Stockport (or Wilmslow for London), plus those who normally board in Birmingham will transfer over to HS2.
2. Macclesfield, Stoke & Stafford will have a HS2 London service that is likely to continue on to Stockport & Piccadilly, taking a significant chunk of the market with it. There will probably be another London service on the WCML that calls at all three on route to Manchester.
3. Wolverhampton, like Stockport, may be better migrating over to Curzon Street. The journey times will certainly be faster.
4. Many people on here think a change of train is out of the question, yet many people do this all the time. There will be a big proportion of people who do make a change at a HS2 station, which again diminishes the point-to-point demand.
5. If this really just falls to serving passengers from Macclesfield, Stoke, Stafford & Wolverhampton to Birmingham & Manchester, is a XC service the best way to do that? The current fast Avanti & XC service patterns are:
   • Macclesfield:
     • 3 to Manchester
     • 2 to Birmingham
   • Stoke:
     • 4 to Manchester
     • 2 to Birmingham
   • Stafford:
     • 2 to Manchester
     • 2 to Birmingham
   • Wolverhampton
     • 2 to Manchester
     • 3 to Birmingham
   • Is there a better way to serve those towns? Given these fast services only exist at these towns because they are on route between bigger cities, is it not better to reduce the number of fasts and replace with commuter stopping services?

Stoke & Macclesfield surely only need 2 fast tph to Manchester. Increasing the number of stoppers in to Piccadilly also introduces a far more frequent (almost metro) service level at intermediate stations, which in turn can reduce car usage. Does Wolverhampton need 3 fast to Birmingham, or would more LNW & WMT services provide a far better outcome for passengers? Stafford will have a London to Manchester service and certainly does not need an additional 2 XC services to run alongside that.

 

[Ianno87]

I do not think the service pattern below is very useful.

• 2 tph Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Airport, (Crewe potentially), Birmingham Curzon Street in 45 minutes
• 2 tph Manchester Piccadilly, Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke, Stafford, Wolverhampton, Birmingham New Street in 90 minutes

There are several issues with this:

1. People who are from Greater Manchester and use Piccadilly, Stockport (or Wilmslow for London), plus those who normally board in Birmingham will transfer over to HS2.
2. Macclesfield, Stoke & Stafford will have a HS2 London service that is likely to continue on to Stockport & Piccadilly, taking a significant chunk of the market with it. There will probably be another London service on the WCML that calls at all three on route to Manchester.
3. Wolverhampton, like Stockport, may be better migrating over to Curzon Street. The journey times will certainly be faster.
4. Many people on here think a change of train is out of the question, yet many people do this all the time. There will be a big proportion of people who do make a change at a HS2 station, which again diminishes the point-to-point demand.
5. If this really just falls to serving passengers from Macclesfield, Stoke, Stafford & Wolverhampton to Birmingham & Manchester, is a XC service the best way to do that? The current fast Avanti & XC service patterns are:
   • Macclesfield:
     • 3 to Manchester
     • 2 to Birmingham
   • Stoke:
     • 4 to Manchester
     • 2 to Birmingham
   • Stafford:
     • 2 to Manchester
     • 2 to Birmingham
   • Wolverhampton
     • 2 to Manchester
     • 3 to Birmingham
   • Is there a better way to serve those towns? Given these fast services only exist at these towns because they are on route between bigger cities, is it not better to reduce the number of fasts and replace with commuter stopping services?

Stoke & Macclesfield surely only need 2 fast tph to Manchester. Increasing the number of stoppers in to Piccadilly also introduces a far more frequent (almost metro) service level at intermediate stations, which in turn can reduce car usage. Does Wolverhampton need 3 fast to Birmingham, or would more LNW & WMT services provide a far better outcome for passengers? Stafford will have a London to Manchester service and certainly does not need an additional 2 XC services to run alongside that.

That is a reasonable assessment - the "residual" XC/whatever via Stoke service probably becomes more about serving the Stoke-Birmingham and Wolves/Stafford/Stoke-Manchester markets more than anything else.

 

[PTR 444]

I’ve thought up an idea which amalgamates the remnants of XC services into defined corridors. These would each have 2tph at half-hourly intervals, and none would require services to reverse at Birmingham New Street. The corridors are as follows:

• Corridor A: SW express to Birmingham via Camp Hill line
• Corridor B: South coast to Birmingham via Coventry
• Corridor C: SW semi-fast to Birmingham and Sheffield via Cross City line
• Corridor D: Cardiff to Nottingham via Cross City line

As for the services, these would consist of:

1tph Plymouth - Birmingham New Street (A)
Ivybridge, Totnes, Newton Abbot, Exeter St David’s, Tiverton Parkway, Taunton, Bristol Temple Meads, Bristol Parkway, Cheltenham Spa, BIRMINGHAM NEW STREET

1tph Bristol Temple Meads - Manchester Piccadilly (A)
Bristol Parkway, Cheltenham Spa, Birmingham New Street, Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield, Stockport, MANCHESTER PICCADILLY

1tph Bournemouth - Birmingham New Street (B)
Brockenhurst, Southampton Central, Southampton Airport Parkway, Winchester, Basingstoke, Reading, Oxford, Banbury, Leamington Spa, Coventry, Birmingham International, BIRMINGHAM NEW STREET

1tph Reading - Liverpool Lime Street (B)
Oxford, Banbury, Leamington Spa, Coventry, Birmingham International, Birmingham New Street, Wolverhampton, Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway, LIVERPOOL LIME STREET

1tph Bristol Temple Meads - Sheffield (C)
Filton Abbey Wood, Bristol Parkway, Yate, Cam & Dursley, Gloucester, Cheltenham Spa, Ashchurch for Tewkesbury, Worcester Shrub Hill, Droitwich Spa, Bromsgrove, University, Birmingham New Street, Tamworth, Burton-on-Trent, Derby, Belper, Chesterfield, SHEFFIELD

1tph Hereford - Hull (C)
Ledbury, Colwall, Great Malvern, Malvern Link, Worcester Foregate Street, Droitwich Spa, Bromsgrove, University, Birmingham New Street, Tamworth, Burton-on-Trent, Derby, Belper, Chesterfield, Sheffield, Meadowhall, Doncaster, Goole, Brough, HULL

2tph Cardiff Central - Nottingham (D)
Newport, Chepstow, Lydney, Gloucester, Cheltenham Spa, Worcestershire Parkway, Bromsgrove, Birmingham New Street, Wilnecote, Tamworth, Burton-on-Trent, Willington, Derby, Long Eaton, Beeston, NOTTINGHAM

 

[JonathanH]

I’ve thought up an idea which amalgamates the remnants of XC services into defined corridors. These would each have 2tph at half-hourly intervals, and none would require services to reverse at Birmingham New Street. The corridors are as follows:

• Corridor A: SW express to Birmingham via Camp Hill line
• Corridor B: South coast to Birmingham via Coventry
• Corridor C: SW semi-fast to Birmingham and Sheffield via Cross City line
• Corridor D: Cardiff to Nottingham via Cross City line

As for the services, these would consist of:

1tph Plymouth - Birmingham New Street (A)
Ivybridge, Totnes, Newton Abbot, Exeter St David’s, Tiverton Parkway, Taunton, Bristol Temple Meads, Bristol Parkway, Cheltenham Spa, BIRMINGHAM NEW STREET

1tph Bristol Temple Meads - Manchester Piccadilly (A)
Bristol Parkway, Cheltenham Spa, Birmingham New Street, Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield, Stockport, MANCHESTER PICCADILLY

1tph Bournemouth - Birmingham New Street (B)
Brockenhurst, Southampton Central, Southampton Airport Parkway, Winchester, Basingstoke, Reading, Oxford, Banbury, Leamington Spa, Coventry, Birmingham International, BIRMINGHAM NEW STREET

1tph Reading - Liverpool Lime Street (B)
Oxford, Banbury, Leamington Spa, Coventry, Birmingham International, Birmingham New Street, Wolverhampton, Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway, LIVERPOOL LIME STREET

1tph Bristol Temple Meads - Sheffield (C)
Filton Abbey Wood, Bristol Parkway, Yate, Cam & Dursley, Gloucester, Cheltenham Spa, Ashchurch for Tewkesbury, Worcester Shrub Hill, Droitwich Spa, Bromsgrove, University, Birmingham New Street, Tamworth, Burton-on-Trent, Derby, Belper, Chesterfield, SHEFFIELD

1tph Hereford - Hull (C)
Ledbury, Colwall, Great Malvern, Malvern Link, Worcester Foregate Street, Droitwich Spa, Bromsgrove, University, Birmingham New Street, Tamworth, Burton-on-Trent, Derby, Belper, Chesterfield, Sheffield, Meadowhall, Doncaster, Goole, Brough, HULL

2tph Cardiff Central - Nottingham (D)
Newport, Chepstow, Lydney, Gloucester, Cheltenham Spa, Worcestershire Parkway, Bromsgrove, Birmingham New Street, Wilnecote, Tamworth, Burton-on-Trent, Willington, Derby, Long Eaton, Beeston, NOTTINGHAM

Hereford to Hull is somewhat unbalanced. I don't really see why Hereford would be in the Cross Country network.

One of the Bristol trains should extend back to Exeter (not Plymouth), the Reading train should extend back to Southampton.

2tph out of Cardiff might be difficult to justify. I am not convinced that Nottingham via a Derby reversal is needed after HS2 provided there is a frequent service through Derby to Sheffield. I would potentially send the train via Castle Donington to maintain the Tamworth and Burton-on-Trent link to Nottingham. Maybe Cardiff to Sheffield or Leeds and Cardiff to Nottingham.

The interesting question is just how many trains can be sent from the south west into Birmingham. Six seems quite optimistic, even with two going via Camp Hill.

Your Bristol to Sheffield train is going to need to be overtaken whilst it diverts via Worcester which might limit its attractiveness. I appreciate it is putting two stoppers together but is that helpful when the only new link is Droitwich to stations beyond Worcester.

 

[adrock1976]

I’ve thought up an idea which amalgamates the remnants of XC services into defined corridors. These would each have 2tph at half-hourly intervals, and none would require services to reverse at Birmingham New Street. The corridors are as follows:

• Corridor A: SW express to Birmingham via Camp Hill line
• Corridor B: South coast to Birmingham via Coventry
• Corridor C: SW semi-fast to Birmingham and Sheffield via Cross City line
• Corridor D: Cardiff to Nottingham via Cross City line

As for the services, these would consist of:

1tph Plymouth - Birmingham New Street (A)
Ivybridge, Totnes, Newton Abbot, Exeter St David’s, Tiverton Parkway, Taunton, Bristol Temple Meads, Bristol Parkway, Cheltenham Spa, BIRMINGHAM NEW STREET

1tph Bristol Temple Meads - Manchester Piccadilly (A)
Bristol Parkway, Cheltenham Spa, Birmingham New Street, Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield, Stockport, MANCHESTER PICCADILLY

1tph Bournemouth - Birmingham New Street (B)
Brockenhurst, Southampton Central, Southampton Airport Parkway, Winchester, Basingstoke, Reading, Oxford, Banbury, Leamington Spa, Coventry, Birmingham International, BIRMINGHAM NEW STREET

1tph Reading - Liverpool Lime Street (B)
Oxford, Banbury, Leamington Spa, Coventry, Birmingham International, Birmingham New Street, Wolverhampton, Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway, LIVERPOOL LIME STREET

1tph Bristol Temple Meads - Sheffield (C)
Filton Abbey Wood, Bristol Parkway, Yate, Cam & Dursley, Gloucester, Cheltenham Spa, Ashchurch for Tewkesbury, Worcester Shrub Hill, Droitwich Spa, Bromsgrove, University, Birmingham New Street, Tamworth, Burton-on-Trent, Derby, Belper, Chesterfield, SHEFFIELD

1tph Hereford - Hull (C)
Ledbury, Colwall, Great Malvern, Malvern Link, Worcester Foregate Street, Droitwich Spa, Bromsgrove, University, Birmingham New Street, Tamworth, Burton-on-Trent, Derby, Belper, Chesterfield, Sheffield, Meadowhall, Doncaster, Goole, Brough, HULL

2tph Cardiff Central - Nottingham (D)
Newport, Chepstow, Lydney, Gloucester, Cheltenham Spa, Worcestershire Parkway, Bromsgrove, Birmingham New Street, Wilnecote, Tamworth, Burton-on-Trent, Willington, Derby, Long Eaton, Beeston, NOTTINGHAM

Regarding Hereford - Hull, is it intended to be an extension from Birmingham? Transport for West Midlands and Worcestershire County Council I believe intend to increase the frequency between Birmingham and Hereford to run every 30 minutes, which would require redoubling Shelwick Junction - Malvern for timetable robustness as well as an increased frequency.

 

[JonathanH]

Regarding Cardiff - Nottingham

It is an interesting one that no one has ever really pushed for this to be 2tph. One thing which makes it difficult is the TfW stopper on the opposite side of the hour, therefore there is already 2tph Cardiff to Cheltenham, and of course, multiple services from there north.

Cheltenham to Birmingham is not a cheap journey thanks to years of CrossCountry pushing up fares. Whether four, or five, trains an hour on the direct route avoiding Worcester could be justified, and more importantly, how they could be made to fit, is a tricky question.

It is actually a point which a lot of questions about XC come down to. They have certainly pushed fares up on many routes and created more restrictions. It is all very well trying to link everywhere with XC services but fares are unlikely to drop. Is there untapped demand at the fares charged currently that isn't dependent on taking advantage of situations where other operators keep the fares low?

 

[adrock1976]

2tph is twice an hour not once every two hours.

I misread that section, hence how I have deleted that paragraph in my previous post.

 

[Purple Orange]

That is a reasonable assessment - the "residual" XC/whatever via Stoke service probably becomes more about serving the Stoke-Birmingham and Wolves/Stafford/Stoke-Manchester markets more than anything else.

Exactly. And if there happens to be a HS2 service calling at those stations on the way to Manchester, plus an additional London-Manchester WCML service (let’s say via Birmingham), are more fast services needed? I doubt it, which means of the 5 fast intercity services that run in Piccadilly, only 2 will be needed post HS2.

 

[PTR 444]

Hereford to Hull is somewhat unbalanced. I don't really see why Hereford would be in the Cross Country network.

This would be an extension of the existing WMR Hereford service rather than a brand new one alongside. I think it makes sense as it joins up paths through Birmingham, allowing for better regional connectivity. I think it is also likely that XC will become incorporated into WMR or its successor, so considering it as part of the "Cross Country" network may no longer be relevant.

One of the Bristol trains should extend back to Exeter (not Plymouth), the Reading train should extend back to Southampton.

I'm not sure if there is any need to extend another Birmingham train beyond Bristol in addition to the service to Plymouth. If anything, there is probably demand for an extra train between Bristol and Exeter, but I think it would be better as an extension of the GWR service from Cardiff Central, which could also call at newly reopened stations (Wellington, Cullompton) between Taunton and Exeter. As for extending the second Reading back to Southampton, I don't think it will be needed when a lot of passengers will be using HS2 via OOC. 1tph south of Reading to Soton and Bournemouth will suffice.

2tph out of Cardiff might be difficult to justify. I am not convinced that Nottingham via a Derby reversal is needed after HS2 provided there is a frequent service through Derby to Sheffield. I would potentially send the train via Castle Donington to maintain the Tamworth and Burton-on-Trent link to Nottingham. Maybe Cardiff to Sheffield or Leeds and Cardiff to Nottingham.

It's probably better to keep reversing at Derby as otherwise that city would only be left with 1tph direct to Nottingham. Also maintains the link between Wilnecote/Willington and Derby.

The interesting question is just how many trains can be sent from the south west into Birmingham. Six seems quite optimistic, even with two going via Camp Hill.

If capacity is an issue, the local service on the Cross City line could be permanently reduced from 6tph to 4tph with 2tph to Bromsgrove and Redditch each. Alternatively, all Cross City local services could go to Redditch since Bromsgrove would see a greatly improved service with trains from Cardiff and Bristol calling there.

Your Bristol to Sheffield train is going to need to be overtaken whilst it diverts via Worcester which might limit its attractiveness. I appreciate it is putting two stoppers together but is that helpful when the only new link is Droitwich to stations beyond Worcester.

My proposal is for this to replace the existing GWR service between Bristol and Worcester, and hence this would be the only service calling at Ashchurch for Tewkesbury.

Regarding Hereford - Hull, is it intended to be an extension from Birmingham? Transport for West Midlands and Worcestershire County Council I believe intend to increase the frequency between Birmingham and Hereford to run every 30 minutes, which would require redoubling Shelwick Junction - Malvern for timetable robustness as well as an increased frequency.

If this is the case, it may be better to swap the additional Cardiff service and run it to Hereford instead. Tweaking my plan further, you could have 2tph Hereford to Nottingham, 1tph Cardiff Central to Sheffield and 1tph Bristol to Hull.