Why are people opposed to HS2? (And other HS2 discussion)

[Puffing Devil]

The Virgin services I take between Crewe and Euston are not full; I travel out in the morning around 8am and return around 5pm. I'm unlucky if I don't have a pair of seats to myself.

We do not need HS2. Move all Pendolinos to 11 carriages and further reduce first class by another carriage.

Unless we shift more government to the Northwest, there is no need for additional capacity.

 

[The Ham]

So once again, I must accept the case for HS2, yet you rip to shreds any alternative suggestion.

If there was a viable alternative then we wouldn't be able to do it to shreds.

Most of the things you listed tries to manage people off the railways, well the problem is that relies on people being willing to use the alternatives.

It is likely things we may have to do to eak out capacity until HS2 opens anyway.

Just on broadband, since 2007 average household broadband speeds have gone up from 4.7mb/s to 48mb/s, with speeds of up to double that if everyone were to opt for the fastest speed. Firstly how much faster does it need to go before people reduce their travel demand?

The Virgin services I take between Crewe and Euston are not full; I travel out in the morning around 8am and return around 5pm. I'm unlucky if I don't have a pair of seats to myself.

We do not need HS2. Move all Pendolinos to 11 carriages and further reduce first class by another carriage.

Unless we shift more government to the Northwest, there is no need for additional capacity.

That works now for those services, what about in 5 years time, 10 years time, 15 years time? What about the train before or after those?

I could get a train into Waterloo leaving at the same time as you and returning to the other station at 5pm and probably see similar results of I traveled from far enough out of London, that doesn't mean that there's not a need for more capacity.

The model for HS2 is based on phase one having a capacity uplift of 52%, it's already more than that for those places which will directly benefit from HS2.

 

[EM2]

Unlike the politicians and businessmen who support HS2, I use the railways. And I see that the North needs investment *now*, something HS2 does not provide. Waiting for the line to reach Birmingham does not help the North.

Apart from everything that's mentioned up the thread, there is no solution that can be done *now* and certainly none that fix the issues.
By the time any reasonable sized project is planned and finished, it'll be three years, and that's if planning started on Monday, which it won't because there are dozens of others in the pipeline.
Just for argument's sake, let's say that 20% of the drivers that use the M62 every day decide they're fed up with sitting in traffic, and decide to take the train on Monday. How soon would the railway be able to make the sort of improvements that you want, to be able to cope with that increase in demand?

When HS2 is cancelled, as it will, I'll be on this thread with a spring in my step and song in my heart. I can only imagine how you will feel when your project is canned.

It's not my project. Nor will it benefit me one iota in my personal life. But in my job, it will make things a hell of a lot easier, and seeing as my job involves making sure that we have a railway network that actually works, that will make your life easier too.

 

[ABB125]

Unless we shift more government to the Northwest, there is no need for additional capacity.

But that's not going to happen at the moment. However, if it only took an hour and a bit to get to/from London, I suspect there would be more appetite to move civil servants out of London, simply because if they need to be in London for a meeting with those who remain down there, likewise those who remain in London may need to meet those "up north", it hardly takes any time at all.
If you wait for the jobs to move before building HS2, it will never be built.

 

[Puffing Devil]

If there was a viable alternative then we wouldn't be able to do it to shreds.

Most of the things you listed tries to manage people off the railways, well the problem is that relies on people being willing to use the alternatives.

It is likely things we may have to do to eak out capacity until HS2 opens anyway.

Just on broadband, since 2007 average household broadband speeds have gone up from 4.7mb/s to 48mb/s, with speeds of up to double that if everyone were to opt for the fastest speed. Firstly how much faster does it need to go before people reduce their travel demand?

That works now for those services, what about in 5 years time, 10 years time, 15 years time? What about the train before or after those?

I could get a train into Waterloo leaving at the same time as you and returning to the other station at 5pm and probably see similar results of I traveled from far enough out of London, that doesn't mean that there's not a need for more capacity.

The model for HS2 is based on phase one having a capacity uplift of 52%, it's already more than that for those places which will directly benefit from HS2.

The peak time services to/from Crewe are not full. This is a function of demand and price. I'm unusual as I have a long commute 2/3 days week which I'm lucky enough not to pay for. A season ticket for a week Crewe-London with no splits is £304, if you go for a month or more. That's £1.2K a month. I know that housing is cheaper in the North, I still can't see that being an incentive to commute.

That also brings up the question of prices. We know that Virgin price passengers off the peak services. Would HS2 be anything other than a premium service with a premium price? (Hint: Look at HS1).

Unless there is a huge cut in pricing the growth in passenger numbers will not happen. The broadband speed that you talk about in your post has cut business travel, commuters would not be able to afford it and leisure travellers can easily spare the time for a much cheaper fare. See again the number of people that take the LNWR train to London from Crewe to save a few £££.

HS2 is a vanity project that will provide capacity that will not be used because the market will not pay for it. Payback will take decades.

 

[Ianno87]

That also brings up the question of prices. We know that Virgin price passengers off the peak services. Would HS2 be anything other than a premium service with a premium price? (Hint: Look at HS1).

HS2 (probably to be a premium priced service at peak times - TBC, and loads of capacity to fill off peak through fares management) will replace Pendolinos (already a premium priced service at peak times to manage demand, with cheap Advances at off peak times).

...what's the difference, may I ask?

Moreso, why would you reasonably expect HS2 *not* to have a price premium at least similar to current Pendolino pricing premium? If anything the additional capacity HS2 creates generates more capacity to flex prices to fill excess network capacity overall (be it on HS2 or indirectly on the WCML).

HS2 is a vanity project that will provide capacity that will not be used because the market will not pay for it. Payback will take decades.

Yes, payback on major infrastructure projects always takes decades, as correctly reflected in the scheme's economic case. And the "Payback" is far more than just fares, but the wider economic activity stimulated by HS2.

Anyway, if demand isn't there to fill capacity, HS2 will be like any other railway in varying pricing to help fill capacity.

 

[Ianno87]

. See again the number of people that take the LNWR train to London from Crewe to save a few £££.

Still a small percentage of overall Crewe-Euston travel - many would still have travelled at a higher price on VT if the LNWR service didn't exist, and would be prepared to pay for it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

HS2 (probably to be a premium priced service at peak times - TBC, and loads of capacity to fill off peak through fares management) will replace Pendolinos (already a premium priced service at peak times to manage demand

No, to maximise income.

 

[Ianno87]

No, to maximise income.

True.

Although if there was no off-peak evening restriction on Monday to Thursday, some Pendolinos would no doubt be leaving Euston very highly loaded as a result.

 

[Puffing Devil]

HS2 (probably to be a premium priced service at peak times - TBC, and loads of capacity to fill off peak through fares management) will replace Pendolinos (already a premium priced service at peak times to manage demand, with cheap Advances at off peak times).

...what's the difference, may I ask?

Moreso, why would you reasonably expect HS2 *not* to have a price premium at least similar to current Pendolino pricing premium? If anything the additional capacity HS2 creates generates more capacity to flex prices to fill excess network capacity overall (be it on HS2 or indirectly on the WCML).

Yes, payback on major infrastructure projects always takes decades, as correctly reflected in the scheme's economic case. And the "Payback" is far more than just fares, but the wider economic activity stimulated by HS2.

Anyway, if demand isn't there to fill capacity, HS2 will be like any other railway in varying pricing to help fill capacity.

Pendolinos do not have a premium price. You do not pay a supplement to ride one - it's the standard fare.

My argument is that unless there is a reduction in price there will not be an uplift in passenger numbers.

Secondly, who said that the current capacity on the WCML will be removed?

 

[ABB125]

This thread now has 1000 replies. It's the longest thread I've started.

 

[EM2]

That also brings up the question of prices. We know that Virgin price passengers off the peak services. Would HS2 be anything other than a premium service with a premium price? (Hint: Look at HS1).
...
HS2 is a vanity project that will provide capacity that will not be used because the market will not pay for it. Payback will take decades.

Yet domestic services on HS1 are absolutely heaving (try even getting on the 08.18 from Ebbsfleet). Southeastern are going to be seriously sweating the assets to add units to services from December.
And the classic lines are no better. Stand on the concourses of Charing Cross and Cannon Street at 8am, and see the sea of people coming off services arriving every few minutes.

 

[Puffing Devil]

Yet domestic services on HS1 are absolutely heaving (try even getting on the 08.18 from Ebbsfleet). Southeastern are going to be seriously sweating the assets to add units to services from December.
And the classic lines are no better. Stand on the concourses of Charing Cross and Cannon Street at 8am, and see the sea of people coming off services arriving every few minutes.

A different market and catchment area, which has traditionally been made up of commuters. Also lower fares; £185/week from Canterbury on HS1.

The trains are not heaving from Crewe, people do not generally commute. If it were an option, weekly prices double those of the South East would restrict the market.

The idea of having a super fast train service is great. Unfortunately, there is no appetite for the higher fares. Compare it to the Transatlantic Concorde service - a great idea with very limited appeal and use due to the premium price. The older and slower technology won out as the money was not there to pay for it.

 

[6Gman]

You are getting investment:

Liverpool - Manchester Chat Moss Electrification
Liverpool - Wigan Electrification
Lime Street Station Rebuild/Re-signalling
Ordsall Chord
Manchester - Bolton Electrification
Blackpool Electrification
Srapping of Pacers by Cascaded Stock - 150s, 156s, 158s, 170s, 319s
Northern New 195 DMUs
Northern New 331 EMUs
TPE New 802 BiModes
TPE New Mk5 stock
TPE New 397 EMUs
LNER New 800 Bimodes

Proposed/Future Enhancements
Trans Pennine Improvement/Electrification
Piccadilly Extra Platforms
HS3/Northern Powerhouse Rail

Plus you will benefit from HS2, journey times from Preston to London will improve by at least 30 mins when phase 1 to Birmingham opens increasing to at least an hour when phase 2 opens. Plus you get new stock to replace/complement the Pendolinos.

Thank you for adding to my list.

We both forgot Halton Curve.

 

[pt_mad]

Just had a thought.

What were First group proposing as a timetable for Horizon Trains? Seem to remember some press coverage was saying more stops at more stations and possibly mini Pendolinos?

Now surely they'd have had to have worked this around the existing Very High Frequency timetable? But were they proposing a way of getting more out of it?

 

[EM2]

The idea of having a super fast train service is great. Unfortunately, there is no appetite for the higher fares. Compare it to the Transatlantic Concorde service - a great idea with very limited appeal and use due to the premium price. The older and slower technology won out as the money was not there to pay for it.

A Concorde carried a lot fewer people than a 747, and there were a lot fewer of them too.

 

[EM2]

The trains are not heaving from Crewe, people do not generally commute. If it were an option, weekly prices double those of the South East would restrict the market.

Maybe they would if the journey time were appreciably shorter?

 

[doa46231]

You must have a very sad life if the cancellation of HS2 cheers you up so much!
Get rid of the pinch points on theWCML.
Ok, say where they are, produce costed plans from planning and economic experts.
Tel us in detail what the new timetable will be!

You keep waffling but there is NO substance.
And you've been told so many times that money saved will NOT go into alternative rail schemes that I wonder if you are one of these people who dont actually read other comments.
The railway is years away from being finished, yet the naysayers know the cost is going to be £100 billion.
They know what the timetable will be. They kno

When HS2 is cancelled, as it will, I'll be on this thread with a spring in my step and song in my heart. I can only imagine how you will feel when your project is canned.

w what the fares will be, and they know nobody will use it. And they know it is going to be cancelled.
In which c
It seems these clairvoyants could make a good living advising everyone about what's coming!

When HS2 is cancelled, as it will, I'll be on this thread with a spring in my step and song in my heart. I can only imagine how you will feel when your project is canned.

 

[Puffing Devil]

Maybe they would if the journey time were appreciably shorter?

That makes little economic sense - and additional 6K/year in commuting costs from Crewe, more from Manchester where house prices in the centre are encroaching on London prices.

I've not seen any studies where anything other than assumptions have been made. I would like to see what real people would consider. Based on real people using the service now I can't see a huge upturn because of the shorter journey time. As I said, we're also seeing an increase in remote working, reducing again the need to be in an office.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Thanks, so we'd only save circa 9% if the speed of the new lines were less than 125mph.
As such no faster than WCML, so why would anyone use it?

Not only that, but there would then be no point in the eastern leg of HS2, because there would be no time advantage in using the new line instead of MML/ECML.

 

[Bald Rick]

Unless there is a huge cut in pricing the growth in passenger numbers will not happen.

My argument is that unless there is a reduction in price there will not be an uplift in passenger numbers

But this is just not the case historically, and there is no reason to suggest that growth requires fare cuts.

The railway carries twice as many people as it did 20 years ago. On the West Coast the growth is even higher, and fares have not reduced in that time, far from it. Twenty years ago, the standard anytime return between New St and Euston was £55. Now it is £178. (Accepting that there is more choice of advance options, but nevertheless average fare prices have risen).

 

[Esker-pades]

But this is just not the case historically, and there is no reason to suggest that growth requires fare cuts.

The railway carries twice as many people as it did 20 years ago. On the West Coast the growth is even higher, and fares have not reduced in that time, far from it. Twenty years ago, the standard anytime return between New St and Euston was £55. Now it is £178. (Accepting that there is more choice of advance options, but nevertheless average fare prices have risen).

Assuming adjustment for inflation has not taken place, £55 in 1999 is equivalent ~£92-93 now. Still a big increase.

 

[Clip]

Pendolinos do not have a premium price. You do not pay a supplement to ride one - it's the standard fare.

Well they kind of do - you take the anytime fare for your trip Crewe - Euston - 7 day travel card £392.80

But look at the WMR only 7 day Travelcard £229.00

Thats a £163 premium to use the pendos which everyone who buys the anytime would use due to it being faster

 

[EM2]

That makes little economic sense - and additional 6K/year in commuting costs from Crewe, more from Manchester where house prices in the centre are encroaching on London prices.

I've not seen any studies where anything other than assumptions have been made. I would like to see what real people would consider. Based on real people using the service now I can't see a huge upturn because of the shorter journey time. As I said, we're also seeing an increase in remote working, reducing again the need to be in an office.

Why are you assuming that everyone will commute to London? With fast, frequent trains, people will commute to Birmingham, Leeds, Liverpool, Newcastle...

 

[Puffing Devil]

Why are you assuming that everyone will commute to London? With fast, frequent trains, people will commute to Birmingham, Leeds, Liverpool, Newcastle...

Are Leeds, Liverpool and Newcastle anything more than pipe dreams?

If anything, we should be investing in a HS Transpennine Line Linking Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds through to the ECML.

 

[Ianno87]

Pendolinos do not have a premium price. You do not pay a supplement to ride one - it's the standard fare.

Whuh?

£175 walk-up peak single Euston to Manchester is pretty 'premium' in my book (especially in proportion to the off peak fare)

It *is* a premium to use them in the peak, in effect.

 

[Ianno87]

Are Leeds, Liverpool and Newcastle anything more than pipe dreams?

Certainly not Liverpool, that gets HS2 trains in Phase 1.

Leeds/Newcastle pretty integral to Phase 2B.

 

[EM2]

Are Leeds, Liverpool and Newcastle anything more than pipe dreams?

If anything, we should be investing in a HS Transpennine Line Linking Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds through to the ECML.

And that's what we'll get, with the addition of a HS spine to London.

 

[Puffing Devil]

Whuh?

£175 walk-up peak single Euston to Manchester is pretty 'premium' in my book (especially in proportion to the off peak fare)

It *is* a premium to use them in the peak, in effect.

Same fare if you choose to use other services. It's not a premium to ride a Pendolino.

 

[PR1Berske]

Why are you assuming that everyone will commute to London? With fast, frequent trains, people will commute to Birmingham, Leeds, Liverpool, Newcastle...

Do you foresee any negative consequences of HS2?